TheMagicFoolBus
Full Member
I'm sorry but this is just incorrect. You are confusing post-shot xG with post-shot xG per shot on target. The whole point of post-shot xG is to isolate the performance of a goalkeeper; the point of post-shot xG per shot on target is to focus on the finishing of the striker and thus gauge the extent to which a team has been unlucky in terms of opposition finishing - whether shots are going top bins more often than not is the basic question this stat seeks to answer. This suggests that yes, Chelsea have been unlucky in terms of opposition finishing this year, further compounding the fact that Kepa is literally twice as bad as the next worse goalkeeper (Pickford) in post-shot xG. Ultimately, Chelsea are 5th best in post-shot xG whist being 12th in GA. Thus, Kepa's underperformance is far and away the biggest factor holding back our defence.1. 46% correlation between the two metrics this season. Last year was close to 0, 39% in the season before. Just think about it - If I'm facing tougher quality chances, it's more likely that I'd concede more goals. And in xG terms 0.08 is a pretty big difference at a per shot level.
2. Set piece goals are in 90% cases down to defensive tactics. I remember bashing Mou and then Ole for this and the season for that is this can be solved. Either clearly define responsibilities of each player or more sessions on that.
Opposition finishing does not have an impact, from where the opposition took their shots, the scenario and the body part used are the determining factors here. It quantifies the quality of shot the GK faced and a higher number means that on an average the shots Kepa faced were from positions where its more likely to score from as compared to other teams.
Again, I do find his goalkeeping comical at times and do believe that replacing him will mean that you'll concede atleast 5-10 goals less, but you're in for a shock if you believe that you believe that Azpi, Rudiger, Alonso and Zouma can make you title contenders (and I like Azpi and Rudiger, but they aren't that good).
For your second point, Kepa has stopped 7.2% of the crosses faced. This is better percentage than Ederson, Dave, Lloris, Leno and Schmeichel. I'm sorry I couldn't find the punches data available anywhere. And also, I'm sorry if the GK is facing a 1v1 situation, it's hardly ever the GKs fault unless his distributtion was that poor
Finally, with respect to the last point I think it's important to use punches specifically as that's the mark of a clearance under pressure - including all crosses adds the variables of opposition quality when crossing & extent to which a defense impacts crosses coming in.
One last point here (not necessarily directed at you specifically, @anant) - I'm certainly not arguing that Chelsea have world-beaters at CB. My point is that they are absolutely nowhere near as bad at their jobs as Kepa is at his - I'd rather see what they can do in front of a competent goalkeeper instead of binning them all for uncertain & expensive options that may or may not be upgrades (e.g. Upamecano, Dunk, Ake, etc), especially in this market where there is little cost-effective CB talent available.