SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Brwned

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But what about the dog bites?
:lol: yeah that one was right out of left field.

But let's be fair here, we all feel the same way as him on two key points: fed up, and questioning the point of our sacrifice when you see the Liverpool street parties. I think @SiRed has the impression that many people in this discussion don't feel that way, which can drive you a bit mental on top of all of the other pressures.

Just deciding to feck it all and avoid testing is jumping off the deep end alright, but I'm sure a lot of us can relate to feeling on that "edge". But he's walked back from it now, as most of us have, because we have to. It's shit, and you can argue about freedom all day long, but the government aren't the ones restricting our freedom here, the virus is. That's just the reality we need to accept.

Within that we have personal choices to make but the unfortunate truth is, we don't have that many. The virus throws a good counter punch to most moves. Most generations have gone through some version of that and in a few years we can glorify the sacrifice and camaraderie and resilience and all that jazz. But for now the only essential choice is to just get on with it. And venting and discussing crazy escape strategies is part of that, if we're honest about it.
 

hurstafus

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:lol: yeah that one was right out of left field.

But let's be fair here, we all feel the same way as him on two key points: fed up, and questioning the point of our sacrifice when you see the Liverpool street parties. I think @SiRed has the impression that many people in this discussion don't feel that way, which can drive you a bit mental on top of all of the other pressures.

Just deciding to feck it all and avoid testing is jumping off the deep end alright, but I'm sure a lot of us can relate to feeling on that "edge". But he's walked back from it now, as most of us have, because we have to. It's shit, and you can argue about freedom all day long, but the government aren't the ones restricting our freedom here, the virus is. That's just the reality we need to accept.

Within that we have personal choices to make but the unfortunate truth is, we don't have that many. The virus throws a good counter punch to most moves. Most generations have gone through some version of that and in a few years we can glorify the sacrifice and camaraderie and resilience and all that jazz. But for now the only essential choice is to just get on with it. And venting and discussing crazy escape strategies is part of that, if we're honest about it.
This is a great post. I don’t think @SiRed meant to be as outlandish as he/she appears to others. We are in this together for better or worse! There’s no point in just shouting at people without understanding where they are coming from.
 
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SiRed

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:lol: yeah that one was right out of left field.

But let's be fair here, we all feel the same way as him on two key points: fed up, and questioning the point of our sacrifice when you see the Liverpool street parties. I think @SiRed has the impression that many people in this discussion don't feel that way, which can drive you a bit mental on top of all of the other pressures.

Just deciding to feck it all and avoid testing is jumping off the deep end alright, but I'm sure a lot of us can relate to feeling on that "edge". But he's walked back from it now, as most of us have, because we have to. It's shit, and you can argue about freedom all day long, but the government aren't the ones restricting our freedom here, the virus is. That's just the reality we need to accept.

Within that we have personal choices to make but the unfortunate truth is, we don't have that many. The virus throws a good counter punch to most moves. Most generations have gone through some version of that and in a few years we can glorify the sacrifice and camaraderie and resilience and all that jazz. But for now the only essential choice is to just get on with it. And venting and discussing crazy escape strategies is part of that, if we're honest about it.
Thanks Brwned, i feel so calm now reading your post. I am stressing a lot lately!
 

UnrelatedPsuedo

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WHY DOES THE MEWLING ASSHAT KEEP TALKING ABOUT TESTING CAPACITY?!?

Sorry, but this shit really fcuks with me. Why is nobody pulling him up on Testing Capacity being meaningless. It’s his free pass now.

25% of test results returned inside 24 hours.

Am I going fecking mental or are most countries not returning most results in a matter of hours? Many countries are taking minutes.

We are in an alternate reality in England.
 

Smores

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Why do they have to? Seems a poorly chosen argument amongst genuine concerns.

At the start of this we all looked at the various examples of how past pandemics have come and gone in waves and no one really doubted that would be the same again.

The question isn't whether they'll stop any future waves occurring again, it's have we got the correct measures in place and are they working properly at the right times. I mean you could stop future waves completely but the impact would be unreasonable.
 

Pogue Mahone

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WHY DOES THE MEWLING ASSHAT KEEP TALKING ABOUT TESTING CAPACITY?!?

Sorry, but this shit really fcuks with me. Why is nobody pulling him up on Testing Capacity being meaningless. It’s his free pass now.

25% of test results returned inside 24 hours.

Am I going fecking mental or are most countries not returning most results in a matter of hours? Many countries are taking minutes.

We are in an alternate reality in England.
I don’t think so? Maybe in hospital but doubt the turnaround is that rapid in the community. In Ireland we’re getting community test results back in 24-36 hours and I get the impression this is reasonably prompt. Be interested to hear of experiences from other countries.
 

UnrelatedPsuedo

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I don’t think so? Maybe in hospital but doubt the turnaround is that rapid in the community. In Ireland we’re getting community test results back in 24-36 hours and I get the impression this is reasonably prompt. Be interested to hear of experiences from other countries.
Anecdotal from me;

1. UK (May) - NEVER RETURNED.
2. Croatia (July) - 11 hours
3. Germany (August) - 6 hours
4. UK (October) - 4.5 days and counting.

To anyone asking why I’ve had four of the things;

1. I have a history of Tonsillitis leading to ear/nose/throat/chest infection leaving me bedridden for a week or two if not caught early. I was sick as a dog in May. No result.

2. Forced test to visit GP surgery.

3. Forced when transiting through airport.

4. See (1).

Maybe I’m getting a bad rub. It’s infuriating though.
 

noodlehair

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I thought we would get a vaccine and the world would open up immediately but I'm beginning to think differently. I feel sorry for my daughter who had saved up for and had been looking forward to a gap year for about 3 three years. She was due to fly to the Philipines on 23rd March 2020 and the whole trip has been put on hold. She hopes to go in the spring but I can't see that now.
Yeah it sucks for a lot of people. I spoke to a builder the other week who lost his brother to covid and now his mum due to her health has been reduced to living her whole life in her living room because it's too much of a risk to take her anywhere.

That's why I think one way or another life will go more back to normal. You can ask people to put their lives on hold for a short period but you can't ask them to do it indefinitely. The "we're all in this together" mantra, which was never really true in the first place, can only hold up for so long. Particularly now when you have different restrictions and rules applying to different areas.

I think there's a real race to get a vaccine ready by spring because the current situation is going to wear and wear people down and by then there'll be little tolerance left. THe vaccine doesn't have to be 100% effective to allow the situation to become more manageable so I think any remotely effective one would be good news.
 

noodlehair

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Essex is in tier 2, but even though I'm in Essex I'm not in tier 2 I'm in tier 1 because the part of Essex I'm in doesn't count as being the same part of Essex as the rest of Essex. Even though they used the town centre where I live on the news when reporting that Essex was now tier 2.

Also the infection rates in the part of Essex that is in tier 2 are no higher than where I am, and are also quite a bit lower than a lot of places that are remaining in tier 1.

I'm so fecking confused as to what the logic is behind this.
 

Pexbo

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Essex is in tier 2, but even though I'm in Essex I'm not in tier 2 I'm in tier 1 because the part of Essex I'm in doesn't count as being the same part of Essex as the rest of Essex. Even though they used the town centre where I live on the news when reporting that Essex was now tier 2.

Also the infection rates in the part of Essex that is in tier 2 are no higher than where I am, and are also quite a bit lower than a lot of places that are remaining in tier 1.

I'm so fecking confused as to what the logic is behind this.
Who is your MP?
 

Brwned

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Andy Burnham giving the government both barrels.

Do you agree that it is "unfair" to put more severe restrictions on Manchester, when Manchester has a more severe outbreak?
 

Bebestation

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Separating the country in to cities of covid is just turning this to a war like feature between the cities.

Some are getting away for crap all and some are getting closed all over.
 

noodlehair

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Who is your MP?
Jackie Doyle Price

I'm more confused why the rest of Essex is in tier 2. Infection rate in Essex is around 50 out of 100,000 on average. Our Local Authority area is in the 25 lowest in the country in terms of infection rates as of the update I got yesterday, and the rest of Essex is either in that 25 or just outside of it.

I don't know where they set the limits between tier 1 and tier 2 but apparently just wherever the feck they feel like and they can also just completely change the limits from one area to the next. Which makes it completely pointless.
 

Jacko21

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Do you agree that it is "unfair" to put more severe restrictions on Manchester, when Manchester has a more severe outbreak?
If you're going to impose tighter restrictions on people in an area, you have to a) know it will be effective in suppressing the virus and b) give people given sufficient financial support. Andy Burnham and Co are arguing that Tier 3 restrictions and the financial package on offer will fail to do either of those things. The CMO intimated that Tier 3 won't be enough by itself.
 

Pexbo

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Jackie Doyle Price

I'm more confused why the rest of Essex is in tier 2. Infection rate in Essex is around 50 out of 100,000 on average. Our Local Authority area is in the 25 lowest in the country in terms of infection rates as of the update I got yesterday, and the rest of Essex is either in that 25 or just outside of it.

I don't know where they set the limits between tier 1 and tier 2 but apparently just wherever the feck they feel like and they can also just completely change the limits from one area to the next. Which makes it completely pointless.
Christ I’ve just looked up all the MPs across Essex. Do you mind if we just drop a nuclear bomb on the area?
 

jeff_goldblum

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Jackie Doyle Price

I'm more confused why the rest of Essex is in tier 2. Infection rate in Essex is around 50 out of 100,000 on average. Our Local Authority area is in the 25 lowest in the country in terms of infection rates as of the update I got yesterday, and the rest of Essex is either in that 25 or just outside of it.

I don't know where they set the limits between tier 1 and tier 2 but apparently just wherever the feck they feel like and they can also just completely change the limits from one area to the next. Which makes it completely pointless.
Pretty sure there's no set limit, they're clearly employing other criteria we don't know about, and the fact they won't say what they criteria leads me to think it's not scientific. Think I'm right in saying that Nottingham has the highest rate in the country but is only at Tier 2 whilst Liverpool has a lower rate and is Tier 3. The whole of the North East is on Tier 2 but only Tyneside and parts of Teeside have the figures to justify it.
 

noodlehair

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If you're going to impose tighter restrictions on people in an area, you have to a) know it will be effective in suppressing the virus and b) give people given sufficient financial support. Andy Burnham and Co are arguing that Tier 3 restrictions and the financial package on offer will fail to do either of those things. The CMO intimated that Tier 3 won't be enough by itself.
There needs to be a consistency to these rules as well. Nottingham has a significantly higher infection rate than Manchester, but apparently tier 2 is fine for there.

Either there is information being used we are not being shown or they are literally applying different rules/standards to different areas.
 

noodlehair

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Pretty sure there's no set limit, they're clearly employing other criteria we don't know about, and the fact they won't say what they criteria leads me to think it's not scientific. Think I'm right in saying that Nottingham has the highest rate in the country but is only at Tier 2 whilst Liverpool has a lower rate and is Tier 3. The whole of the North East is on Tier 2 but only Tyneside and parts of Teeside have the figures to justify it.
Yep. I'm baffled what the criteria is but it almost certainly isn't science based. It can't be based on hospital capacity because we literally share a hospital with one of the areas moving to tier 2.

I'm not sure what else than can base it on that would make any sense. R rate maybe but again the maths doesn't work with the infection rates.
 

Brwned

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If you're going to impose tighter restrictions on people in an area, you have to a) know it will be effective in suppressing the virus and b) give people given sufficient financial support. Andy Burnham and Co are arguing that Tier 3 restrictions and the financial package on offer will fail to do either of those things. The CMO intimated that Tier 3 won't be enough by itself.
Tier 3 won't be enough by itself, so Andy Burnham can choose what he wants to layer on top to make it effective, rather than being dictated to by the government in the way he hates. So on the 1st point, surely he's being given exactly what he wants - control to choose the right mix of suppression tactics, in line with public health advice?

Fighting to get the right financial package makes sense, if the right financial package is possible. Has he specified what that is? From my perspective as a self-employed person, the right financial support wasn't there in the national lockdown either. But self-employed people didn't turn it into an "us vs. them" fight because it has obvious costs, with few obvious benefits.

If you compare this to how the Italians have dealt with it, do you not find it problematic? Their restrictions were even more localised, they had even worse financial aid available, they already had an existing north / south divide...and yet they didn't seem to politicise the north / south divide because the data was unavoidable...areas with more cases had more restrictions.

What's the better alternative? If Burnham considers it "unfair" for one of the most severely hit regions to have the most severe restrictions, would it make it fairer to have a national lockdown, and make many more places with many times fewer cases deal with the same blanket restrictions?

@Penna, having been in both places, do you have any idea why local UK governments have turned local restrictions into a question of fairness in a way that Italy seemed not to? Is it the fact that the local governments had more autonomy?
 

Smores

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Jackie Doyle Price

I'm more confused why the rest of Essex is in tier 2. Infection rate in Essex is around 50 out of 100,000 on average. Our Local Authority area is in the 25 lowest in the country in terms of infection rates as of the update I got yesterday, and the rest of Essex is either in that 25 or just outside of it.

I don't know where they set the limits between tier 1 and tier 2 but apparently just wherever the feck they feel like and they can also just completely change the limits from one area to the next. Which makes it completely pointless.
It's because it was an Essex County Council decision and Southend/Thurrock don't come under that. The only council that has actually requested to go higher :lol:

I'm kind of glad they've made the decision though. Better now than later.
 

noodlehair

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It's because it was an Essex County Council decision and Southend/Thurrock don't come under that. The only council that has actually requested to go higher :lol:

I'm kind of glad they've made the decision though. Better now than later.
I think they're bonkers and completely irresponsible if that's what they've done. They'll cost a lot of people their jobs through that, and will get no chance to negotiate additional financial support for themselves or the people who's livelyhoods they'll ruin.

And all on the basis of not very much evidence that it will actually help. Essex is short on large cities or University towns so I'm not sure what on earth they are expecting to happen.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Anecdotal from me;

1. UK (May) - NEVER RETURNED.
2. Croatia (July) - 11 hours
3. Germany (August) - 6 hours
4. UK (October) - 4.5 days and counting.

To anyone asking why I’ve had four of the things;

1. I have a history of Tonsillitis leading to ear/nose/throat/chest infection leaving me bedridden for a week or two if not caught early. I was sick as a dog in May. No result.

2. Forced test to visit GP surgery.

3. Forced when transiting through airport.

4. See (1).

Maybe I’m getting a bad rub. It’s infuriating though.
Impressive turnaround times in Germany/Croatia but I wonder if that’s down to a different type of test used for travel screening? i.e. not using the PCR test needed for clinical diagnosis
 

UnrelatedPsuedo

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Impressive turnaround times in Germany/Croatia but I wonder if that’s down to the type of test used for travel screening i.e. not using the PCR test needed for clinical diagnosis
The Croatian test was a full clinical test. Admittedly it was taken in Zagreb at a hospital adjacent to their Infectious Disease centre.

The German test is below, you’ll have a better idea of what it is/isn’t.

https://www.centogene.com/corona.html

My point remains though, that cretin Hancock is being allowed to declare his Testing Capacity. It’s horseshit. If you can’t return tests at speed, having the ability to test means feck all.

They also continue to cook the numbers by counting mailed out tests in a way that nobody else does. And double the tests vs people metrics when it suits. It’s still all shit but people have moved on.

I’m just over it to be honest. They’re so full of shit.
 

Penna

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@Penna, having been in both places, do you have any idea why local UK governments have turned local restrictions into a question of fairness?
I have no idea, but it's causing misunderstanding and resentment because it doesn't always make sense. You might live in the massive area of Greater Manchester, but you could be in a rural location with very few Covid cases or you could be right in central Manchester with many cases. Applying the same rules to all those different local communities is senseless.

The government in Italy has been very much acting in accordance with the scientific and medical advice, which is what every government should be doing. We also have regional Presidents here who have the authority to make changes according to what's happening in their patches, and that then filters down to the provinces and to the local Mayors of the comunes. With the latest decree, the government has allowed the regions to continue to make changes to government policy, but only in respect of imposing tighter restrictions, not relaxing them.

As an example of how drilled-down it is, in our comune of 1100 people you can sign up to a WhatsApp group run by the Mayor's office. We receive an official communication from the Mayor at least once a day, sometimes more frequently. Today it was in relation to sport and it told us exactly what was allowed/not allowed in respect of every single sport you could think of, including coastal rowing and beach football! We get massive amounts of detail and there's no "advisory" or "suggested". It's "you must/must not".

People need clarity and detail, not broad-brush statements (in my opinion).
 

Sparky_Hughes

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Yep. I'm baffled what the criteria is but it almost certainly isn't science based. It can't be based on hospital capacity because we literally share a hospital with one of the areas moving to tier 2.

I'm not sure what else than can base it on that would make any sense. R rate maybe but again the maths doesn't work with the infection rates.
Most likely based on how much the relevant MP has fellated Bozo Johnson and his alien advisor on that particular day?
 

Smores

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I think they're bonkers and completely irresponsible if that's what they've done. They'll cost a lot of people their jobs through that, and will get no chance to negotiate additional financial support for themselves or the people who's livelyhoods they'll ruin.

And all on the basis of not very much evidence that it will actually help. Essex is short on large cities or University towns so I'm not sure what on earth they are expecting to happen.
They've done it off the evidence PHE gave them that they're 2 or 3 week away from significant numbers.

Tier 2 doesn't actually close any businesses as long as they can be done in a covid secure manner. You might argue people not being able to socialise with other households might reduce income for some businesses, hard to say.
 

Brwned

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I have no idea, but it's causing misunderstanding and resentment because it doesn't always make sense. You might live in the massive area of Greater Manchester, but you could be in a rural location with very few Covid cases or you could be right in central Manchester with many cases. Applying the same rules to all those different local communities is senseless.

The government in Italy has been very much acting in accordance with the scientific and medical advice, which is what every government should be doing. We also have regional Presidents here who have the authority to make changes according to what's happening in their patches, and that then filters down to the provinces and to the local Mayors of the comunes. With the latest decree, the government has allowed the regions to continue to make changes to government policy, but only in respect of imposing tighter restrictions, not relaxing them.

As an example of how drilled-down it is, in our comune of 1100 people you can sign up to a WhatsApp group run by the Mayor's office. We receive an official communication from the Mayor at least once a day, sometimes more frequently. Today it was in relation to sport and it told us exactly what was allowed/not allowed in respect of every single sport you could think of, including coastal rowing and beach football! We get massive amounts of detail and there's no "advisory" or "suggested". It's "you must/must not".

People need clarity and detail, not broad-brush statements (in my opinion).
As a general criticism I think being too general and vague is entirely applicable to the UK government, but the two things you've suggested in favour of the Italian government here, I'm pretty sure apply to the UK government right now.

So in your example where Italian regions can only impose tighter restrictions, not relax them, that's what the UK government are proposing too. They - and more to the point, the scientific advisors - are saying it's necessary for local governments to impose tighter restrictions in places that are worst-hit, but they won't make that decision for local governments. They'll apply a base level set of of restrictions on the regions, like the Italian government has, and then mayors will be advised to apply the most severe measures on top, so that they don't apply those rules to the different local communities senselessly.

And in this case the restrictions are not advisory but requirements. People must not socialise with other households, these businesses must close, etc. The UK government put advisory suggestions in back in May about how and why people could spend their time outdoors, because they didn't think the severe restrictions put in Italy on that specific subject were appropriate, but on business closures, household intermingling, non-essential travel stuff, which is all they're talking about now, they are declarative rather than advisory.

To me it seems like local politicians are stoking that resentment because they don't want to take the firm decisions that local Italian governments have, despite working with largely the same constraints imposed by their own national government.
 

redshaw

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How has Liverpool just accepted being tier 3?

I understand Andy saying he wants more compensation but if he has a look around Europe many others are doing worse or similarly as bad. No-one can guarantee cases won't rise again but we know heavy restrictions do bring cases down. Andy should consult the hospitals in Greater Manchester becasue extra restrictions have always been about stopping the hospitals becoming overwhelmed and delayed action could make the situation much worse.
 

groovyalbert

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These localised, tiered restrictions and coping mechanisms work in theory but stop in reality. All they are likely to do is create further and deeper inequalities which just bring up, rightfully, questions regarding the true implications of how we are now dealing with COVID. As has been said before, there needs to be proper consideration of mental health, economic destruction and social inequalities.

It is a horrible time, with no ideal solution, but if we're just going to keep shutting down society every time there is a rise in cases until a vaccine is widely available, we're just heading towards a crash that'll destroy millions of lives across the country.

I'm all for a circuit-breaker to contend with the rise heading into the winter months, but if we went into a national lockdown in March because cases were high in specific regions of the UK, I think it's virtually impossible to insist people face localised restrictions now. It's all or nothing. Most parts of the UK cannot afford a full lockdown again, and I doubt the majority of residents in these areas are supportive of further lockdowns.

Like I said, this is such a horrible situation for us to be in, with answers that only pinpoint new victims. But perseverance in the face of adversity is a fine coping mechanism, if rolled out sensibly. Protect and quarantine the most vulnerable/oldest members of society, by all means, but should existing generations - and generations to come - be consigned to the drastic fallout of what is looking extremely likely? Personally, I think the younger generations have been vilified enough as it is. Let's not further negatively impact their prospects unnecessarily.

Rant over. I hope everyone is well and safe, and that loved ones are being cared for. Compassion is the key to any recovery right now, but it is a compassion that must take into consideration more than simply the here and now.
 

Pogue Mahone

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The Croatian test was a full clinical test. Admittedly it was taken in Zagreb at a hospital adjacent to their Infectious Disease centre.

The German test is below, you’ll have a better idea of what it is/isn’t.

https://www.centogene.com/corona.html

My point remains though, that cretin Hancock is being allowed to declare his Testing Capacity. It’s horseshit. If you can’t return tests at speed, having the ability to test means feck all.

They also continue to cook the numbers by counting mailed out tests in a way that nobody else does. And double the tests vs people metrics when it suits. It’s still all shit but people have moved on.

I’m just over it to be honest. They’re so full of shit.
German test looks like legit PCR. Not a huge surprise that their systems are super efficient. And yeah, the postal tests thing in the UK seems like a complete disaster.
 

noodlehair

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They've done it off the evidence PHE gave them that they're 2 or 3 week away from significant numbers.

Tier 2 doesn't actually close any businesses as long as they can be done in a covid secure manner. You might argue people not being able to socialise with other households might reduce income for some businesses, hard to say.
What counts as significant numbers? I don't see how the tier 2 restrictions do much to help since they're near impossible to enforce and don't target any of the main methods of transmission. It's not really worth doing to try and stop something that hasn't happened yet because based on the scientific evidence and what has happened elsewhere, it wont.

They'll succeed in making some people's lives more miserable, though, and the businesses/jobs side of things is a double edged sword. Any restriction that does help contain transmission will also have a huge impact on many people's jobs.