"Kamel-Back" throw these people in the bin!
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
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Just a few more days and we can all go back to complaining about United!
Cubans are simply afraid of the US taking a turn towards socialism/communism. That is what they risked their lives escaping from. You'll see the same thing happen with other immigrant populations from former communist countries. They learned their lesson through first hand experience.
This has very little to do with wanting to exploit their fellow countrymen back home. Cubans are good people.
Tiny part of me doesn't want this to end.
If you're a betting man, this is your chance for some easy money. If the polls are to be trusted, anything but a Biden win would be an upset at this point.
As long as Biden wins.
Ah Lil Wayne who is a private school bubba and about as ghetto as me.
If not we're all relocating to Vanuatu. Pacific Cafe.
Can you talk through the bets you made there?
You lost me, sir.
Edit: if I understand you correctly, here are the bets I made, but odds have changed since then, all in Biden EVs.
1k on 390+ at 7.00 (current 5.75)
500 on 360-389 at 10.00 (current 8.00)
2k on 330-359 at 7.00 (current 5.00)
1k on 300-329 at 11.00 (current 9.00)
then a security bet of 1.5k on Trump at 2.74, since it’s just impossible to predict what the margins will be in that scenario
there are also a few other punts at 50/100 each on Congressional races, popular vote margin etc...
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As in, I'd be interested to know what the bets you made were that left you with that exposure? Or is it as simple as you bet $500 on Biden winning 320-359 and $500 on Biden winning 360+?
Updated the previous post. I was actually off in predicting winnings with the 300-329 scenario, which wouldn’t be shabby at all.
All odds can be checked on TAB, the Australia/NZ gambling monopoly.
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Trump claims the only way joe biden can win is if the Scotus fail to act....the fascist is coming out to play
He’s already mad at Barr for not prosecuting the Hunter Biden story, so this would be par for the course.
Michters No.1, Wild Turkey 101, Gentleman Jack, and Maker’s Mark.
Interesting, thanks for sharing. Will take a look at those and potentially follow your lead.
I claim no responsibility for any monetary loss which stems from that potential course of action. Remember @ItsEssexRob , the Chavs fan who got ruined with his gambling addiction
That's alien to me. I basically told my family to feck off with their right-wing bullshit and conspiracy crap. They all know to not stir the hornets nest IRT politics and religion when around me. It's sad to see people tow a line to not upset family/culture. We progress by bucking the trends.
Some cultures value the sense of community in a way Western individualism can’t comprehend. I have a few Pakistani friends who are all bright, pretty liberal, drink and party all day long but to a man accept arranged marriage with their cousins. Social ostracism is a powerful tool.
The polls had clinton winning by a landslide last time too... even on election day.
Polls are BS.
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This sounds exciting but wait until we find out that someone called Declan Trimble, who died in 1892, voted for Trump 1.7 million times.
Blue Wave?
I get that. But I'd also think with how loose Western culture is that many of these pockets in the US (possibly other countries) would eventually begin to break these ties that bind. I'm sure it has in some cultures but perhaps the SE Florida Cuban culture is still dominated with the adults that fled in the 70s/80s still influencing the generations below.
Trying not to get my hopes up on Texas but it's hard seeing these numbers and not think we're maybe underestimating how many former Trump voters or registered Republicans have flipped in the south. Either way a big turnout is always good news for Biden need the same in Georgia now.Blue Wave?
It annoys me that many on the right call the left the Radical Left by default. The media/left in the US should start calling them the Radical Right.
Now bulling the justices , that will end up well
@InfiniteBoredom You didn't short the dollar or hit up renewable energy? 
@Charlie Foley I'm not actually sure a good book exists on modeling turnout, especially for an event this unprecedented. It's somewhere between art and guesswork. My modeling factors have been the early polling data from 24 states, along with the early vote data in the last few elections, total turnout for those election, polls (specifically the question something like: "how do you intend to vote, or have you already voted"), and the curve of WHEN in the early voting cycle people tend to vote. This is probably why I was talking about it very early compared to the news. They don't want to be 'fake news' - I can just model in peace.
@sport2793 The latino vote is so weird man. We've talked about it before, but it's just so diverse. You can generalise the "white vote" "uneducated vote" "rural vote" "jewish vote" pretty nationally, but the Latino vote seems to work on a per state basis with their networks of info etc. I've been looking at the Texan latino vote this morning, and it's tough to get a read.
@Charlie Foley I'm not actually sure a good book exists on modeling turnout, especially for an event this unprecedented. It's somewhere between art and guesswork. My modeling factors have been the early polling data from 24 states, along with the early vote data in the last few elections, total turnout for those election, polls (specifically the question something like: "how do you intend to vote, or have you already voted"), and the curve of WHEN in the early voting cycle people tend to vote. This is probably why I was talking about it very early compared to the news. They don't want to be 'fake news' - I can just model in peace.
@sport2793 The latino vote is so weird man. We've talked about it before, but it's just so diverse. You can generalise the "white vote" "uneducated vote" "rural vote" "jewish vote" pretty nationally, but the Latino vote seems to work on a per state basis with their networks of info etc. I've been looking at the Texan latino vote this morning, and it's tough to get a read.
It would be far closer to the truth, too. Calling Biden radical left is possibly the most ridiculous thing of all time.
A bottle of Amarula, which is apparently available in the US.
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That's a myth, you know that, right?
On November 4, 2016, four days before the election, the 538 polling aggregate had Clinton ahead by 2.7%. In the actual election, she got 2.1% more of the vote than Trump.
Looks a bit wrong. Clinton didn't win 2016. (I suppose it means the popular vote, but its misleading)
What I gather from it is that the final polling doesn't deviate that much from the final popular vote - and a 5+ popular vote for Biden should be ample to win him the EC right? Basically has to be down to 2.5 ish to be a toss up?
Texas’s number for R is pretty remarkably consistent if you control for population increases and registration. Between 08/12/16, there’s a roughly 100k increase every cycle (W got more than McCain in 04 but he was incumbent + former governor), in 2018 if you extrapolate Cruz’s number on a typical presidential year turnout, he’d have gotten about 4.7m votes. So let’s say Trump’s floor is roughly 4.8m, Dems need somewhere in the region of 500k votes (assuming party crossovers maintain at about 10%), which I believe is becoming viable at about 64% turnout. Which we might well get to.
@owlo one form of gambling at a time is all I can handle
@owlo one form of gambling at a time is all I can handle
Is there any way that could legally work against him in the way his old tweets did with the various bans he tried to enforce? I remember them being quoted in cases.Now bulling the justices , that will end up well
I think 538 did an article on this at one point. It's somewhere around 6-7 points where it becomes extremely unlikely Trump could win. If I recall correctly, at 5 he'd still have a 20% chance or so.
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