SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

F-Red

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There is zero data on how much immunisation will be provided if we spread this out to 12 week gaps. It is a desperate and risky change, onky happening in the UK, moving away from the vaccine manufacturer recommendations.
I assume you’re referring to just the Pfizer vaccine, and not the AstraZeneca one?
 

Wibble

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Day 2 of compulsory mask wearing in NSW in an attempt to get rid of the latest outbreak without massively increasing more economically damaging measures and feckwits are protesting about their freedom already.
 

F-Red

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I've looked into Pfizer as that is what my in laws have received. Is there data on 12wk gaps with the AZ vaccine?
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext

In participants who received two standard doses, efficacy against primary symptomatic COVID-19 was consistent in both the UK (60·3% efficacy) and Brazil (64·2% efficacy), indicating these results are generalisable across two diverse settings with different timings for the booster dose (with most participants in the UK receiving the booster dose more than 12 weeks after the first dose and most participants in Brazil receiving their second dose within 6 weeks of the first)
60.3% efficacy with a 12 week gap, considering the large percentage of the population will receive the AstraZeneca vaccine, and with supply hitting critical mass in 12 weeks, the decision by the JCVI to prioritise the first shot roll out to assist in the hospital pressures the right one. Which will have a greater impact than any lockdown that people want to talk about.

The Pfizer one is an unknown, however the JCVI wouldn’t have started conversations on single dose administration back in July, if they didn’t have a degree in confidence of its efficacy.
 

tombombadil

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Don't have the time to read all that but is Sweden as fecked as we are atm?
Boris consulted Anders Tegnell on current policy after the lockdowns. He masterminded the Sweden response.

Comparing Sweden with their neighbours, well they fecked up. Their own king admitted as much.

Here's a chart on excess mortality comparing between Sweden and Norway although they are only until July.

https://www.efta.int/Publications/news/COVID-19-Excess-Mortality-Selected-European-Countries-521261#:~:text=Sweden, as a country that,the average of 2016 – 2019.



Alternatively, you can custom the chart in the link below to compare Sweden with England & Wales which has data up to Dec 20.

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/...ntry=DEU~NOR~SWE~England & Wales&region=World
 
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rcoobc

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.On a side note, home learning provision in primary schools should have significantly improved by now. You may find that it improves this time around, as further closures are clearly in the pipeline.
Personally I think the home learning provisions provided by my local primary school have been shocking.

My son's class was shut down in match April may, obviously, but also in November due to someone in the class testing positive.

November was somewhat improved, but still a long way away from the type of learning the local private primary school is/was getting.

There will no doubt be a generation of kids who are left behind compared to privately educated students
 

Wibble

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Personally I think the home learning provisions provided by my local primary school have been shocking.

My son's class was shut down in match April may, obviously, but also in November due to someone in the class testing positive.

November was somewhat improved, but still a long way away from the type of learning the local private primary school is/was getting.

There will no doubt be a generation of kids who are left behind compared to privately educated students
Don't worry too much if you can help it. Private education is more about better facilities and networking than good education. And primary school is mostly about social interaction which they can easily catch up later.

Try supplementing what your school give you with https://www.khanacademy.org/ which has some brilliant resources.
 

rcoobc

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Don't worry too much if you can help it. Private education is more about better facilities and networking than good education. And primary school is mostly about social interaction which they can easily catch up later.

Try supplementing what your school give you with https://www.khanacademy.org/ which has some brilliant resources.
Hard to do when I'm working.

And yes of course private is going to be better in some ways, but usually it's "very good" vs "good". Not "very good" vs "nothing"

Also... Social interaction?
 

Dancfc

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Don't worry too much if you can help it. Private education is more about better facilities and networking than good education. And primary school is mostly about social interaction which they can easily catch up later.
That's simply not true, kids have windows where stuff can be absorbed like sponges (both educationally and socially), once the times past they can't get it back.
 

Dancfc

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Hard to do when I'm working.

And yes of course private is going to be better in some ways, but usually it's "very good" vs "good". Not "very good" vs "nothing"

Also... Social interaction?
Social competence is one of the key skills of life as an adult, school is where you learn that.
 

Wibble

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That's simply not true, kids have windows where stuff can be absorbed like sponges (both educationally and socially), once the times past they can't get it back.
Nothing has no effect but worrying too much about a few weeks of school when there isn't a safe choice isn't worth it. And of course they can get it back with a bit of consistent extra effort from schools and parents when the pandemic subsides.
 

Wibble

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Hard to do when I'm working.

And yes of course private is going to be better in some ways, but usually it's "very good" vs "good". Not "very good" vs "nothing"

Also... Social interaction?
Hard but doable. It is your kids education so the effort will be worth it.
 
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Stack

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That's simply not true, kids have windows where stuff can be absorbed like sponges (both educationally and socially), once the times past they can't get it back.
1 to 2 years really isnt going to hurt and we are only in real terms looking at those sorts of time frames at the very worst. Dont underestimate the ability of kids to catch up and to excel. I myself missed 2 years of schooling while my family travelled and I ended up with 2 degrees a successful career and a highly enjoyable social life. There is too much angst and fear mongering going on out there. I also coached football at exclusive private schools and ordinary public schools, the biggest difference is facilities and the ability of parents to attend support and encourage extracurricular activities. Maybe add in the advantage of mixing in social circles which are more privileged. So how much schooling and social interaction are the kids missing out on? Maybe a few months? 6 months? They will be fine.
 

Brwned

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1 to 2 years really isnt going to hurt and we are only in real terms looking at those sorts of time frames at the very worst. Dont underestimate the ability of kids to catch up and to excel. I myself missed 2 years of schooling while my family travelled and I ended up with 2 degrees a successful career and a highly enjoyable social life. There is too much angst and fear mongering going on out there. I also coached football at exclusive private schools and ordinary public schools, the biggest difference is facilities and the ability of parents to attend support and encourage extracurricular activities. Maybe add in the advantage of mixing in social circles which are more privileged. So how much schooling and social interaction are the kids missing out on? Maybe a few months? 6 months? They will be fine.
I tend to agree with this more optimistic viewpoint on the resilience and adaptability of kids, but do we have any evidence on how this impacts on a whole group of kids rather than individuals? I guess there must be some examples of communities where schools have been destroyed in natural disasters or schools have disappeared in crumbling economies, but I haven't read anything about the outcomes. It's just not the kind of thing you want to be conducting a population-wide experiment on. And while there's still a lot about child psychology that's more myth than robust science, we do have good reason to believe that kids absorb different levels and kinds of information at different times, so if you miss out on certain pivotal moments, you can't just replace it like-for-like.

There are multiple people in this thread that have said they missed out on significant chunks of school and were able to adapt to that without much issue, but it's possible you were just wired the right way to deal with it. What if you're the exception? Alternatively, what if it is true that the majority of kids can adapt to it, but there's a large minority that really can't handle it and suffer long-term consequences? It's the fear of the long-term damage that does justify some caution, I think. We know that people have coped with the social disconnection and changing life priorities differently during this period, and some adults have found it much more difficult than others. No reason to believe that wouldn't apply to kids too. Only they'll have less understanding of what's happening, how to deal with it, or how to communicate it. If you're the government that consciously made a decision to leave those kids behind, how will you feel about it in 10 years when they're suffering all kinds of problems?

I think when faced with that kind of responsibility and potential risks, it's natural to freeze up and just try to continue with things as normally as possible for as long as possible.
 

Stack

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I tend to agree with this more optimistic viewpoint on the resilience and adaptability of kids, but do we have any evidence on how this impacts on a whole group of kids rather than individuals? I guess there must be some examples of communities where schools have been destroyed in natural disasters or schools have disappeared in crumbling economies, but I haven't read anything about the outcomes. It's just not the kind of thing you want to be conducting a population-wide experiment on. And while there's still a lot about child psychology that's more myth than robust science, we do have good reason to believe that kids absorb different levels and kinds of information at different times, so if you miss out on certain pivotal moments, you can't just replace it like-for-like.

There are multiple people in this thread that have said they missed out on significant chunks of school and were able to adapt to that without much issue, but it's possible you were just wired the right way to deal with it. What if you're the exception? Alternatively, what if it is true that the majority of kids can adapt to it, but there's a large minority that really can't handle it and suffer long-term consequences? It's the fear of the long-term damage that does justify some caution, I think. We know that people have coped with the social disconnection and changing life priorities differently during this period, and some adults have found it much more difficult than others. No reason to believe that wouldn't apply to kids too. Only they'll have less understanding of what's happening, how to deal with it, or how to communicate it. If you're the government that consciously made a decision to leave those kids behind, how will you feel about it in 10 years when they're suffering all kinds of problems?

I think when faced with that kind of responsibility and potential risks, it's natural to freeze up and just try to continue with things as normally as possible for as long as possible.
Some excellent points there Brwned and made me think a bit. I think (nothing scientific here) that possibly the biggest danger will be anxiety transferred from adults to kids because they pick up so much. The anxiety of course is entirely understandable given whats been going on. I honestly believe the scholastic side of things can be dealt with if Govts approach the problems of missed schooling etc with a degree of intelligence and balance but thats ultimately the problem isnt it? Will they?
 

Brwned

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Some excellent points there Brwned and made me think a bit. I think (nothing scientific here) that possibly the biggest danger will be anxiety transferred from adults to kids because they pick up so much. The anxiety of course is entirely understandable given whats been going on. I honestly believe the scholastic side of things can be dealt with if Govts approach the problems of missed schooling etc with a degree of intelligence and balance but thats ultimately the problem isnt it? Will they?
Unlikely! Agree about the anxiety. In the early stages a couple of my nieces had visibly taken on their parents’ anxiety and became unusually timid, but everything got better since then. Going back to nursery and school helped with that but even in the month prior it was amazing to see how the parents being much more relaxed translated to their kids too. At a time when teenagers (young girls particularly) are experiencing higher levels of anxiety, and that links directly to more time spent on social media, I’d worry a bit about that. But like you say I generally see kids bounce back from many obstacles better than their parents! A lot of our worst fears seem to be projections, and maybe they end up becoming reality if they project them for long enough!

Well. It got me. Tested positive.
Fingers crossed for the wife!
 

DomesticTadpole

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It is starting to look that way.

Rrgarding schools, I was saying in this very thread back in May/June that they should invest to ensure every child has access to remote leaning. As it stands if they go to remote learning now, there will be an unacceptably high number of kids without laptops or other hardware capable of accessing online leaning.
Think a lot of schools are trying to get their kids laptops, but so will every school on the planet, the demand is outgrowing the supply. It takes time.
 

Berbasbullet

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Ultimately we all want kids in school, but they will surely end up being super spreaders? The numbers are unsustainable, and we need to protect the NHS.

Obviously it isn’t perfect and there will be lots that the poor kids miss out on 100%, but it’s all we can do right now.

I finish my isolation Wednesday so will be outside for the first time in a long time, my partner has seemingly recovered okay, and I don’t think I got it, which was/is unexpected.
 

Classical Mechanic

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I tend to agree with this more optimistic viewpoint on the resilience and adaptability of kids, but do we have any evidence on how this impacts on a whole group of kids rather than individuals? I guess there must be some examples of communities where schools have been destroyed in natural disasters or schools have disappeared in crumbling economies, but I haven't read anything about the outcomes. It's just not the kind of thing you want to be conducting a population-wide experiment on. And while there's still a lot about child psychology that's more myth than robust science, we do have good reason to believe that kids absorb different levels and kinds of information at different times, so if you miss out on certain pivotal moments, you can't just replace it like-for-like.

There are multiple people in this thread that have said they missed out on significant chunks of school and were able to adapt to that without much issue, but it's possible you were just wired the right way to deal with it. What if you're the exception? Alternatively, what if it is true that the majority of kids can adapt to it, but there's a large minority that really can't handle it and suffer long-term consequences? It's the fear of the long-term damage that does justify some caution, I think. We know that people have coped with the social disconnection and changing life priorities differently during this period, and some adults have found it much more difficult than others. No reason to believe that wouldn't apply to kids too. Only they'll have less understanding of what's happening, how to deal with it, or how to communicate it. If you're the government that consciously made a decision to leave those kids behind, how will you feel about it in 10 years when they're suffering all kinds of problems?

I think when faced with that kind of responsibility and potential risks, it's natural to freeze up and just try to continue with things as normally as possible for as long as possible.
A 'sharp rise' of eating disorders in children has already been documented.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55468632
 
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Pexbo

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Let’s wait a little longer until it gets really bad and the corporate landlords ease off with their lobbying.
 

Dancfc

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Ultimately we all want kids in school, but they will surely end up being super spreaders? The numbers are unsustainable, and we need to protect the NHS.
Even taking the education side of it out what about the kids where school is their only safe haven from a life of abuse? What about the kids where school is there only hope of a hot meal? What message will that send to them? Whatever way it's spun we'd be throwing them to the wolves.

Schools (especially primary) should be top priority when deciding what to open and shut, if literally everything else has to shut bar supermarkets and pharmacy's (and make entry to even them stricter in terms of limited capacity, shopping alone etc) to make that happen that's that is what has to happen.
 

Jimble

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The wife is over the worst of it now. Breathing is almost back to normal. I got it very lightly. Loss of taste and smell for short periods, and a slightly elevated temperature. She tested positive with symptoms starting on the 27th a few days after mine had started. It totally floored her. Slept like a champion for a few days. Any effort, even reading the kids a bedtime story left her really short of breath. We're still both knackered. First day back to work today for both of us, and I'm flagging already. 3 coffees in, and I'm still feeling my eyes closing. 3 more days of isolation left. Food supplies are not too bad, although the outside freezer has stopped working, so we've lost all that food. :(