Can someone please explain De Gea’s overnight decline?

sullydnl

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Interesting thread from a more technical perspective.

It is definitely true that those Leipzig and Everton goals are the type of incidents where peak De Gea used to pull of reaction save with his feet but that specifically isn't happening as much any more.
 

arthurka

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It hasn't been overnight, his decline has been pretty steady to be honest. Check out his stats for the last four years. (Ranking among first choice PL goalkeepers only, out of 20)

2017-20182018-20192019-20202020-2021
Shot Stopping (PSxG-GA)2nd8th10th15th
Crosses collected16th17th16th19th
Sweeping (coming out early)14th18th17th17th
Errors leading to goals04 (3rd most)3 (3rd most)1 (Joint 5th)


De Gea is still able to pull off outstanding saves that are good for YouTube and easy to talk about in post-match. Its similar for his mistakes, when they happen they tend to stand out. As a result, arguments about De Gea tend to focus on "this amazing save" vs "that terrible mistake" with fans minutely dissecting each to try and prove a point. In truth the occasional outstanding save or terrible howler are not the real issue.

Three or four mistakes a season might seem bad, but you can live with them if a goalkeeper is otherwise outstanding. Nick Pope for example has made more mistakes leading to goals than De Gea (2 vs 1). But Nick Pope is the best shot stopper, best cross taker and 2nd best sweeper in the country. Based on xG, he's saved Burnley 8 goals that De Gea would have conceded. So mistakes can be a red herring when looking at a goalie. The real issue is that his fundamentals have gone to pot. So far this season, De Gea is among the worst keepers in the league on the basics.

This hasn't happened overnight. All that's really happened is that the fans have kind of accepted that De Gea is world class from back when he was, so they only really question that when high profile mistakes come along. Then when a good performance comes along, they tend to think that the mistakes must have been a fluke and he's back to normal. Slowly though, fans have noticed that the high profile saves seem to happen less and less, and begun to look at his performances more closely. And when they've looked at those performances, they're realised there's a bigger problem there than just the odd howler or two.
This has been a steady decline and a visible problem for 3 years now. New commanding keeper would fix a lot of things that are wrong with this defense.
You can see that the players don´t trust him coming out to collect the ball thats why our CB always run into the deep to head the ball and don´t play high line on set pieces.
His shot stopping has been poor as well and his distribution has never been good so what does he do for us then? He doesn´t sweep thats for sure.

It´s clear that teams are targeting this again and again and it´s working very well.
 

simplyared

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No doubt re the "overnight" decline as stated in the op.
Reason I believe is all about fear.
Wouldn't surprise me if the fear element has always been there. However it seems to be overcoming him the older he gets.
A goalkeeper must be comitted to putting himself over the line even if he risks physical injury by doing so.
His shot stopping capabilities and quick reflexes, however seem to remain intact. And it's those elements that are justifying him still being our no1.
Question is how far are we prepared to go with him.
Having a goalkeeper with no bottle won't work out in the long run.
Opposing managers will have already seen this weakness and are already cashing in on it!
 

RedStarUnited

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Interesting thread from a more technical perspective.

It is definitely true that those Leipzig and Everton goals are the type of incidents where peak De Gea used to pull of reaction save with his feet but that specifically isn't happening as much any more.
I was going to say, he used to be amazing at 1-1s. Now gets beaten by them regularly with ease.
 

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Sadly for him and us, he's only going to get worse with age. It's not a blip, he's continuously showing a downgrade in situations he used to excel at. It is what it is.
 

sullydnl

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Sadly for him and us, he's only going to get worse with age. It's not a blip, he's continuously showing a downgrade in situations he used to excel at. It is what it is.
Not sure it's entirely that straightforward.

His reflexes will continue to slow, which is certainly part of the problem. But as per the thread I posted above, at least some of his issue is down to his technique being looser than it was previously.

The guy analysing it even specifically said in a previous tweet "I believe De Gea's 1v1 shot stopping numbers will soon increase as he keeps getting the decisions right he just needs to make sure his execution quality matches his decision quality."

I think saying he will inevitably continue to decline at the things he used to excel at is letting him off a bit too easily. I suspect he has it in him to at least arrest that decline by correcting technical issues. The question is if he will do so and how good a shot stopper he would then be with slowing reflexes but correct form.

He's probably done at United but with a change of scenery, new coaches and new motivation I could see him having a mini-resurgence elsewhere. Not back to his best but better than he currently is. Particularly so if he moved to a league/team where some of his weaknesses in terms of claiming crosses were exploited less.
 
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harms

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I’m really not sure that his reflexes started deteriorating at the age of 27/28, although it would’ve been an easier explanation (a la Casillas). It’s still a mystery to me, but the most likely breaking point would be the World Cup for me. He was struggling for so long to get that starting spot for Spain, spending many years as the best/second best keeper in the world on the bench behind Casillas, looking at them winning on trophy after another... and when he finally got his chance, he completely shat the bed. In front of the whole world and in front of the Spanish fans, who spent years underrating him because they didn’t watch PL... only to be proven right on their suspicions. After that he even lost a starting spot to Kepa of all people!

So yeah, at this point I think it’s a mental breakdown & lack of motivation of playing for United (he was showing an insane level of performances and still won pretty much nothing). And the further it goes, the worse it gets — he lets in more and more easy goals, makes mistakes, his confidence drops even further, he is getting targeted like he was during his first seasons in England... and now his reflexes are actually beginning to decline.
 

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I think we can all agree DDG is a club legend, albeit he deserves the vehement criticism that went his way after that Everton game. But that’s not what this thread is about.

De Gea was the best keeper in the PL and the entire world in 2017-18. He made a decent team come 2nd, when we hardly had any right going by our performances to even be top 4. We eventually got 81 points. He then started 2018-19 well and prevented us from being bottom half and Mourinho from getting sacked even earlier. He made one mistake only iirc, for the Mustafi header against Arsenal, and even in that game, made a sensational point-blank save from Aubameyang. His top performances culminated in one of his best ever games away to Spurs where he made 11 saves and single-handedly won us the game.

And right after that, the very sudden decline. The mysterious, strange overnight decline. Right after that, he became an average goalkeeper who wouldn’t get into any top side in the world. Reflexes got worse, less agile, worse distribution, more cowardly. From best in the world, to mid-table goalkeeper. Absolutely mystifying.

So, as per the thread title, can people come up with an explanation as to why, because I’m at a lost when thinking about it.
i gave up after ‘club legend’!!!!!

He is not!
 

OnlyTwoDaSilvas

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Overnight? It's been a fairly noticeable decline for a few years now and is at the point currently where I'd probably take at least 10 other PL goalkeepers ahead of him.
My first thought too. I think his last De Gea of old performance was that 0-1 win against Spurs at Wembley, and that was January 2019. Must've been a good 9 or 10 ridiculous saves that night.

He's had some solid and a few even very good games since then, but none close to that, and that type of performance was normal for him for such a long time. He definitely doesn't look capable of that kind of match winning performance anymore. Those strings of impossible saves successfully masked some of his weaknesses. Now he's not pulling those off, his inability to come off his line or command his area are now looking much more pressing. It's been 2 years, it's not a blip anymore. He's a decent keeper at best.
 

Judas

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Not sure it's entirely that straightforward.

His reflexes will continue to slow, which is certainly part of the problem. But as per the thread I posted above, at least some of his issue is down to his technique being looser than it was previously.

The guy analysing it even specifically said in a previous tweet "I believe De Gea's 1v1 shot stopping numbers will soon increase as he keeps getting the decisions right he just needs to make sure his execution quality matches his decision quality."

I think saying he will inevitably continue to decline at the things he used to excel at is letting him off a bit too easily. I suspect he has it in him to at least arrest that decline by correcting technical issues. The question is if he will do so and how good a shot stopper he would then be with slowing reflexes but correct form.

He's probably done at United but with a change of scenery, new coaches and new motivation I could see him having a mini-resurgence elsewhere. Not back to his best but better than he currently is. Particularly so if he moved to a league/team where some of his weaknesses in terms of claiming crosses were exploited less.
Fair points, not going to address it all, but he's gone through so many coaches with us already, and so many areas haven't improved, its quite odd. Not sure what it says about him, and our coaches.
 

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It's not an overnight decline.

He has never been a great goalkeeper.

He has always been a great reflex shot-stopper though, especially from close-range efforts, and that has scewed people's opinions, leading them to think he is a great goalkeeper.

He was never a dominating goalkeeper. He never owned his 18-yard box. Heck, this guy didn't even own his own 6-yard box which is why he had to make so many good-looking close-range effort saves. So, for example, the close-range saves Dave made against, say Arsenal two seasons ago in a game he got hailed for, feck me... most of those saves most goalkeepers wouldn't have to make, simply because they wouldn't have invited play into their six-yard box in order to have to make those saves. The danger would have been dealt with by a better goalkeeper well before a great save had to be made.

If we go back to when he first came, Alex Ferguson didn't want De Gea.. He wanted to sign Neuer because he saw him as a more dominating goalkeeper. But our goalkeeping coach at the time Eric Steele insisted De Gea would transform into a more dominant goalkeeper, not just a shot-stopper. But this has never happened. EVER. And I still, to this day, believe Ferguson thinks he got that decision wrong. Even in 2015 when everyone was labelling De Gea as world class... he was rubbish. He was the least effective goalkeeper in those days, playing at such an elite level. No defensive line has ever looked comfortable with De Gea behind them. And I even mean Vidic and Rio. And I even mean the Spanish backline. The fecker keeps his studs stuck on his goalline. He is literally an ineffective goalkeeper.
 

Suv666

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It wasn't overnight.
The lapses in concentration started 2-3 seasons ago.
 

Leftback99

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17/18 was exceptional but other than that it got to a point where he was overrated during a time when the rest of the team was not good enough. He was making good saves but so were other keepers in the league, they just weren't as high profile games.

A goalkeeper should never be winning player of the year for us. It's a sign of problems elsewhere.
 

Rood

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Basically he got old - he started very young for a keeper so only natural that his peak comes a bit early

He was all about reflexes and they just aren't as fast anymore so more scrutiny on other parts of his game which were never his strong points
 

JMack1234

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It hasn't been an overnight decline but I think the World Cup shook him up good and proper.

Also I don't think he's got the motivation to re-invent himself. He's 30, he's got a big 4 year contract, he's secure as our number 1 and he must have resigned himself to the fact that he's never going to play for one of big Spanish clubs.
 

RashfordisRed

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Just a thought, not sure if the stats will back it up but how often do we see keepers who are brilliant when playing for teams when they are kept busy but fill the team with no confidence when they come to a team where they are not kept busy all game. Just using us as an example, Foster and Kuszcak were immense at relegation teams, dreadful for us.

DDG was outstanding, and he developed whilst we were strong where we still dominated, I wonder if he has got so used to the constant impact on the game, through Moyes, LVG and Mourinho he was generally in the action a lot more than previously. We are slowly starting to dominate games again, against Sheff Utd, Everton he was in essence very quiet and not really involved and maybe he is falling into that trap of no longer having the concentration or the body reacting quickly enough or taking the right decision at the odd moment.
 

Fluctuation0161

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I think he is a player that does well when he has lots to do in a game. That was who we were under Jose, where he had to bail us out.

He underperforms when he is not involved for large parts and suddenly has to get active. Explains why he was never as good for Spain, even at his peak, as he was for United.
Exactly this. He struggles when he has 1-2 saves to make in a game. He is a heavy metal keeper. He likes action!

I'm sure he can improve his focus with training, but I concede he is now quite old. I suppose it is not his fault our team has been shite for 7 years so he has not had to develop this skill before.
 

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It wasn't overnight. He was regarded the best because of shot stopping. The demands of a keeper has increased and his weaknesses are being exploited. He hasn't developed his ability to command. Still great shot stopper. Distribution hasn't improved. When we let in lots of shots per game he looked like a hero because of his shot stopping. We probably concede less shots now (less opps for saves) but he still gets beat as much so he doesn't look so great.
 

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Just a thought, not sure if the stats will back it up but how often do we see keepers who are brilliant when playing for teams when they are kept busy but fill the team with no confidence when they come to a team where they are not kept busy all game. Just using us as an example, Foster and Kuszcak were immense at relegation teams, dreadful for us.

DDG was outstanding, and he developed whilst we were strong where we still dominated, I wonder if he has got so used to the constant impact on the game, through Moyes, LVG and Mourinho he was generally in the action a lot more than previously. We are slowly starting to dominate games again, against Sheff Utd, Everton he was in essence very quiet and not really involved and maybe he is falling into that trap of no longer having the concentration or the body reacting quickly enough or taking the right decision at the odd moment.
That wouldn't explain his first poor season in 18/19 though. Because of Mourinho's meddling in the defence and refusal to drop Matic in midfield, we were conceding plenty of shots.
 

RashyForPM

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i gave up after ‘club legend’!!!!!

He is not!
Course he is. He’s a title winner (only one in the squad) and gave us six world class years from 2012 to 2018, littered with club player of the year and PL team of the year awards. He devoted his best years to us when we were truly awful, despite him being a Spanish guy who could’ve easily moved to one of the 3 big sides in Spain.

Come on now, don’t let his recent poor performances make you think he’s not a legend.
 

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During his earlier years he coasted on the fact that he was the best shot stopper in the world. the rest of his game has always lacked some of the fundamentals of a premier league goalkeeper and he hasn't spent anytime honing them.

He lacks the mentality or intelligence to be a top goalkeeper. Look at Everton's 3rd goal, it all starts from De Gea on the 94th minute aimlessly kicking a ball as far up the pitch as he can.

How anyone can compare this clown to VdS or Schmeichel is beyond me.

It's evident that Ole and the coaching staff are far too lenient on him and others and there is little accountablity for errors or poor performance. I don't get the impression when he makes one of his regular cock ups that the goalkeeping coach will berate or even raise the issue in the next training session.

He's the best paid goalkeeper in the world, whose place is assured regardless of perfomance. Where's the motivation for him to try? The only time I've seen him anywhere near his best for years is earlier this season when he seemed to genuinely think that he had some competition in Henderson.

Most of the above applies to Martial too, they're relics from when the club was rudderless, but thankfully Ole seems to be bringing in players with the right kind of mentality nowadays.
 

Cait Sith

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United fans told themselves he was the best keeper in the world just because he used to be the only hopeful United player in a struggling outside-of-top-4 team a few years ago. Among other elite players (Spanish NT) he looked dodgy even in his prime.

There are many "big fish in small pond" type of players that look great among average teammates and in non-challenging environments but nothing special once they get a move to elite teams that are challenging. That's why we don't prematurely call the MVP of a relegation candidate that avoided relegation thanks to that one player "best in the world" either.
 

freeurmind

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Ever since his real move collapsed anyone can see his heart has not been in it. Time for Henderson to be given a run in the first team.
 

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Some good posts in here.

I'll add that I don't believe De Gea is quite as bad as is made out to be but he's almost certainly hovering around mid-table in terms of PL goalkeepers now, largely due to his declining reflexes and lack of 'making up for it' in terms of non-existent command (which is a trait many GKs get better at).

I think our expectations are high and we're more critical based on the remarkable qualities we saw before. We went from having a supermodel girlfriend with a firm everything to one whose firmness degraded and is now left looking much less supple than supermodel girlfriends a few years younger.

The problem I see isn't right now but rather what happens in a year or two's time. I expect to see a Casillas/Valdes-esque nosedive.
 

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The worst part of it is, does anyone truly think that Romero would have done worse during this time than De Gea? No way he lets in the first goal v Sheffield United, and he would have made it a damn sight harder for DCL to score against Everton.
Come on. Have you seen any of the goals Romero has let in?

He doesn't make howlers and won't get the blame as he couldn't get there. But De Gea definitely would have made a lot of the saves.

Case in point is the last goal he conceded against Norwich last year. Dave saves that all day.

As for De Gea, as others have said his game always had deficiencies but his reflexes were supreme and bailed him out a lot.

It could be a number of things. The style of play definitely comes into it but even then he's lost some of his ability. He's no longer superhuman.

Even if he lost 5% of his speed and agility through age, suddenly he can't quite make the saves he used to and then his confidence takes a hit. His confidence in own abilities which was rock solid erodes and he starts to second guess himself, overthink things, gets his starting position wrong and it's a vicious cycle.

The high profile errors he's made could have also have given him the yips.

Who knows really but at this stage he's done as a top-level keeper I'm afraid. He's had long enough to turn it around and it isn't happening.
 

Infra-red

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Can he reinvent himself in his 30s?
No. In 2018/19 everyone was predicting that he'd suffer a precipitous decline once his physical ability/reflexes began to dull and that, with the rest of his game unable to compensate, he'd be utterly useless by his mid-30s.

He's a keeper with the career trajectory of Casillas, rather than Van Der Sar. His best years are now behind him.
 

Infra-red

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Ever since his real move collapsed anyone can see his heart has not been in it. Time for Henderson to be given a run in the first team.
I'm not convinced that Henderson is up to it long-term, but he should be given a shot for the remainder of the season. At least one of them should be replaced in the summer - nearly £500k per week on keepers is madness.
 

sp_107

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It hasn't been overnight, his decline has been pretty steady to be honest. Check out his stats for the last four years. (Ranking among first choice PL goalkeepers only, out of 20)

2017-20182018-20192019-20202020-2021
Shot Stopping (PSxG-GA)2nd8th10th15th
Crosses collected16th17th16th19th
Sweeping (coming out early)14th18th17th17th
Errors leading to goals04 (3rd most)3 (3rd most)1 (Joint 5th)


De Gea is still able to pull off outstanding saves that are good for YouTube and easy to talk about in post-match. Its similar for his mistakes, when they happen they tend to stand out. As a result, arguments about De Gea tend to focus on "this amazing save" vs "that terrible mistake" with fans minutely dissecting each to try and prove a point. In truth the occasional outstanding save or terrible howler are not the real issue.

Three or four mistakes a season might seem bad, but you can live with them if a goalkeeper is otherwise outstanding. Nick Pope for example has made more mistakes leading to goals than De Gea (2 vs 1). But Nick Pope is the best shot stopper, best cross taker and 2nd best sweeper in the country. Based on xG, he's saved Burnley 8 goals that De Gea would have conceded. So mistakes can be a red herring when looking at a goalie. The real issue is that his fundamentals have gone to pot. So far this season, De Gea is among the worst keepers in the league on the basics.

This hasn't happened overnight. All that's really happened is that the fans have kind of accepted that De Gea is world class from back when he was, so they only really question that when high profile mistakes come along. Then when a good performance comes along, they tend to think that the mistakes must have been a fluke and he's back to normal. Slowly though, fans have noticed that the high profile saves seem to happen less and less, and begun to look at his performances more closely. And when they've looked at those performances, they're realised there's a bigger problem there than just the odd howler or two.
Is he really became this bad?
 

Grylte

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My guess is that there are too many on the team who plays shit music around him.
He's one of the few in the squad with decent taste in music!
 

K Stand Knut

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Course he is. He’s a title winner (only one in the squad) and gave us six world class years from 2012 to 2018, littered with club player of the year and PL team of the year awards. He devoted his best years to us when we were truly awful, despite him being a Spanish guy who could’ve easily moved to one of the 3 big sides in Spain.

Come on now, don’t let his recent poor performances make you think he’s not a legend.
David De Gea is not a club legend.

being club player of the year is not a boast amongst the players he was competing with.

A lot of people forget he’d have gone in a heartbeat if it wasn’t for a faulty piece of equipment.

Just not a legend in my eyes. The term is used too often for my liking anyway. He definitely doesn’t deserve it.
 

RashyForPM

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David De Gea is not a club legend.

being club player of the year is not a boast amongst the players he was competing with.

A lot of people forget he’d have gone in a heartbeat if it wasn’t for a faulty piece of equipment.

Just not a legend in my eyes. The term is used too often for my liking anyway. He definitely doesn’t deserve it.
To you, what constitutes a club legend? I’m not too sure if DDG isn’t one. No debate over Robbo, Sir Bobby, Keane, Scholes, but is someone like Phil Neville a legend to you? Rio? Vidic? Ronaldo?
 

Zlatans Knee

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Come on. Have you seen any of the goals Romero has let in?

He doesn't make howlers and won't get the blame as he couldn't get there. But De Gea definitely would have made a lot of the saves.

Case in point is the last goal he conceded against Norwich last year. Dave saves that all day.

As for De Gea, as others have said his game always had deficiencies but his reflexes were supreme and bailed him out a lot.

It could be a number of things. The style of play definitely comes into it but even then he's lost some of his ability. He's no longer superhuman.

Even if he lost 5% of his speed and agility through age, suddenly he can't quite make the saves he used to and then his confidence takes a hit. His confidence in own abilities which was rock solid erodes and he starts to second guess himself, overthink things, gets his starting position wrong and it's a vicious cycle.

The high profile errors he's made could have also have given him the yips.

Who knows really but at this stage he's done as a top-level keeper I'm afraid. He's had long enough to turn it around and it isn't happening.
I am not saying that Dave is not a better shot stopper than Romero, but tbh I can't think of anything he has saved recently that I don't think Romero would also have saved. Conversely I am convinced that some of the goals he has let in, that Romero would have either saved them or prevented them from happening in the first place. I also think Romero has got better distribution that De Gea although he has improved in that aspect.
I don't think that he is helped by some dopey defensive work in front of him but we need to sort that part of our game out as well.
I don't know the exact numbers of how much De Gea is on, but by most accounts he is one of the highest earners at the club, and he is just not worth that money any longer. No clue who will buy him though. As usual we have handed out a mega contract to someone that means we are stuck with him.
 

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Well he started poorly when he was first signed getting beaten from outside the box too often. He got better season on season as he settled into the country and the team. He is a shot stopper rather than a commanding presence and he is brave in the sense of coming out for corners. Teams know this and exploit it. Henderson made a huge error in the Sheffield game away but I think it’s time to give home a run as we ain’t getting anywhere near winning the PL. This may reignite DeGea or destroy him.
 

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getting dropped for Kepa would ruin any keepers confidence, how do you come back from something like that??