Very interesting analysis, thanks for sharing. I thought the conclusion summed it up very well: Fred isn’t one of United’s best players, but he also isn’t one of their biggest issues, and he is extremely valuable and important especially given the lack of suitable alternatives within the squad.
Pass completion % for CMs
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
I love the 'eye test' comments cause the very nature of discussions on forums suggest that it's as much use as interpreting stats. People see things different based often on a subjective opinions. As already said, if you like the player, you focus on what he can do and less on what he can't. Equally you interpret the stats in the same way, the problem is it all needs the context of playing for Utd. It's very different....
As with all statistics, it depends on how it's measured. Is it just every time they touch the ball and teammate doesn't touch it next (besides a shot/dribble)? If so, there may be any number of mitigating factors, such as some "passes" actually being clearances, a teammate not being on the same wavelength when it's a pass into space or a ball being intercepted by a before reaching its intended target.
All that being said, every player in the squad should be able to say what qualities they would bring to the first 11. If none of the CDMs can say that they reliably recycle possession, that's a major issue.
All that being said, every player in the squad should be able to say what qualities they would bring to the first 11. If none of the CDMs can say that they reliably recycle possession, that's a major issue.
Spot on.
Scholes and Carrick, when they played together first time in 06/07 was such a fresh air, to be able to go to most away grounds and control matches easily. We don't need to go that length, but we certainly need someone that can come close to one of them in the middle of the park now. Pogba could do it, but is a risk in that position and much better utilised further up.I remember obsessing about this stat when it was one of the first/only stats available. Scholes and Carrick consistently hit 90%+. Not unusual for them to be >95%.
Was reading two posts from @Mickeza that mentioned this stat. Apparently Declan Rice was 98% in West Ham’s first game and 100% at half time tonight. Pedri finished the Euros match vs Italy with 100%.
Every single one of our midfielders were <80% vs Southampton.
Is that as bad as it sounds? Because to me it sounds very bad. Are there any other top CMs whose pass completion would regularly be that low? Or do we need to dump/replace all of our CMs?
To be honest, I think it's a training issue than solely about players. On Sunday, there were times Harry was coming out with the ball and was looking around like he didn't know where to play it? There is a very disjointed way that we play and lesser teams sometimes appear better drilled than we are in our patterns of play. For me, the best teams always have multiple choices when on the ball, often our CM's only have a couple.
It's not nitpicking at all, very poor is an extreme opinion that isn't backed up on paper or in reality as far as I can see. They don't have to be within the league of Carrick or Scholes or our past midfielders for that to apply, because we are talking about exceptional passers beyond anything that's currently in the PL. That is the other end of the scale and my argument is that overall they are not very poor.
A justification should be provided. One of the ways I can justify that they're not very poor is statistically and another is to ask exactly what you're seeing and why it isn't reflected in the numbers if it's true. Because I think one thing we all suffer as fans when looking at players is confirmation bias. McFred have a rather undeserved reputation in some areas in my opinion and it becomes difficult to shake that and now it seems like when opinions are given everything has to be categorical and extreme.
Never really subscribed to this again because of context which needs to be taken account of. We had the best manager in the world and a team equally stacked of genuine world talent. The games becomes a lot easier with that. Also whilst Scott or Fred wouldn't be in that squad, you could argue who would out of this one? Pogs and Bruno would be on the bench!!!
It's funny cause people have got selective memories and it wasn't till the style of football was more applicable to Carricks game, was his talent seen differently by some. Carrick divided people's opinions as much as Scott and Fred but for different reasons. He was seen as boring, passive and didn't score enough goals or didn't tackle. Carrick England caps reflect this too where a more combative style of midfield was more in favour. Today he's a 100m player that walks into any team in the world.
Pogs can't do it cause he's a liability when he plays in our third. He's given away more direct goals and Pens than Scott and Fred put together. Let's not equally forget, whilst he scored a fantastic goal for France in the euros, he also contributed to them equally losing the ball that lead to the goal.
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I like this article a lot. Thanks for posting it. It's fair and provides a positive and negative balance. The summary nicely wraps it up. Until we can buy a player that can do what he brings, but do it in a more consistent manner, Fred will continue to play.
Funny thing is, a lot of people were calling for Bissouma to come and be our DM because he could apparently do the job of McFred and has a better passing range. Amazing how we tend to think the grass is always greener elsewhere. Truth is, Fred makes more key passes in a game that Bissouma does. We will also never see the 4-3-3 that so many want to see. This is because Ole does not trust Bruno as a #8. So the only way we will ever see a 4-3-3 with is if Bruno goes to the wing. If Bruno is in the #10, it's going to be with two midfielders behind him like McFred....
It’s beyond comprehension that this hasn’t been addressed for 5+ years. Even Matic looked head and shoulders above anything we’d had when he arrived, and that lasted no more than a few months. We’ve had utter tripe in midfield for the best part of a decade
Ok but that's not much to do with what I posted.
When you say passing stats need context, what's the context that justifies Fred or Matic being less than 80%?
I'm unmoved by pass completion statistics on their own. I'm more interested in the break down like percentage of passes in opposing half, long or short passes, even chances created and through balls
So have the experts here uncovered which primary variable(s) will determine whether our current midfielders are good enough and who we should go for?
Pogba has never been that player.
I would have to analyze every pass they make and quite frankly, I"m not about to do that
So you've watched the game. You know their pass completion percentage. But still can't say if Matic or Fred used the ball well or not. You'd have to go back an analyse each pass?
But you haven't got just the pass completion stat. You watched the game as well right?
Guys you can't say the stats are no good without context or furtger stats. The context was the 90 mins. Which you watched!
Yeah, it's really not hard at all to say "Matic and Fred had a sub-80 pass completion last weekend? Yup, that's shite. Which makes sense, because we all watched the match and they played shite".
You don't need to look at their completion rates over the entire season (pretty good, and in line with other CMs - great, but it was shocking in the last game), you don't need to assess every single pass they played in the 90 minutes (the fact that ~20% of them went nowhere is all you need - we're not talking about attacking players here)
You don't need to look at their completion rates over the entire season (pretty good, and in line with other CMs - great, but it was shocking in the last game), you don't need to assess every single pass they played in the 90 minutes (the fact that ~20% of them went nowhere is all you need - we're not talking about attacking players here)
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You don't need stats when using your eyes is just as good.
Eyes lie. Numbers don't. Numbers without relevant context can be made to look like they are lying too.
What further context do you need in addition to watching the game and having a pass completion stat to say if Fred passed it well or not?
The way rice plays with west ham is not the way he would play at united therefore comparing with scott and fred is like comparing an apple with a pear.
The question should be, if at United, would rice have a greater license to go forward as at west ham, he is the anchor. Most of his good stats are probably around defending. To the flip side, how would fred farevat west ham? I think his passing would drop and defensive stats would drop top as he racks up numbers.
I wouldn't worry too much of pogba and bruno had lower pass stats, they take more risks and should too. I would worry with matic fred or scott having low percentages only if there instruction was to keep things simple.
The question should be, if at United, would rice have a greater license to go forward as at west ham, he is the anchor. Most of his good stats are probably around defending. To the flip side, how would fred farevat west ham? I think his passing would drop and defensive stats would drop top as he racks up numbers.
I wouldn't worry too much of pogba and bruno had lower pass stats, they take more risks and should too. I would worry with matic fred or scott having low percentages only if there instruction was to keep things simple.
To give a proper analysis? Yes, I'd have to watch it again. My recollection of the game wasn't bad passing. It was getting caught on the ball. But please feel free to watch it again and correct me. Bottom line is those two shouldn't partner each other and I've never said anything against that. But I get it...you're just looking for an argument. Troll someone else please...
Read my first post again
Plenty of things. De Bruyne tends to hover around that 80% mark and has plenty of great games below it. It matters how it's used. Do they progress the ball up the field efficiently and effectively? Do they sit on the ball for too long and miss out on better options because they are avoiding risks, or do they take the risk to play the better pass early instead of taking a safer option? Do the passes penetrate through the opposition forward or midfield lines? Are they played with enough pace and are they played making it easy for the receiving player to take it into stride, or do they have to adjust/make a really difficult touch and miss a chance as a result of the adjustment? A pass being complete might still be a shit pass.
Some extremely strange repeat posting going on here.
De Bruyne is playing a different role in his team than these two are at United, which is why nobody cares about his pass completion (or Fernandes's, for an actual valid comparison with a United player).
None of this is relevant for the two midfielders in a 4-2-3-1 when they're giving the ball away once every 5 times they try to pass it. You don't need to look any further than that. If Fred and Matic are trying to avoid risks, they're obviously failing miserably - if they're taking risks to play the better pass early, it's either idiocy on their parts or poor tactics because that's not their job.
De Bruyne is playing a different role in his team than these two are at United, which is why nobody cares about his pass completion (or Fernandes's, for an actual valid comparison with a United player).
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The context is that it was a one-off match.
Both Fred and especially Matic had poor matches, and their low completion percentage is one sign of that. There is no 'justification' for it being that low and I don't think I've seen a single person on this forum say that either had a good game. However many seem to pretend that it's like that regularly when in reality both are normally far higher. Fred was at 88% last season (which put him in the top 18% for midfielders in the top 5 European leagues) and Matic 90% (in the top 9%).
No not at all. I'm genuinely interested as to how you can watch a game and still can't form an opinion on how somebody passed the ball. Even when its also backed up with a pass completion stat. I think it's fair enough to ask a few questions about that.
Well you watched the game right? So you should be able to answer your own questions. Or at least have a go.
Was Fred playing De Bruyne type passes that warrant a pass completion below 80%?
Overstated IMO.I remember obsessing about this stat when it was one of the first/only stats available. Scholes and Carrick consistently hit 90%+. Not unusual for them to be >95%.
Was reading two posts from @Mickeza that mentioned this stat. Apparently Declan Rice was 98% in West Ham’s first game and 100% at half time tonight. Pedri finished the Euros match vs Italy with 100%.
Every single one of our midfielders were <80% vs Southampton.
Is that as bad as it sounds? Because to me it sounds very bad. Are there any other top CMs whose pass completion would regularly be that low? Or do we need to dump/replace all of our CMs?
I remember in 2004 our most accurate passer was... Eric Djemba-Djemba.
I rest my case.
We can improve on Fred and McT but I notice that they seem to be the ones that get most of the blame if we don’t get a result. Bruno and others have bad games too and Ole doesn’t really like to change things around during games. At most, he will swap a forward or swap a MF. I would like to see him become more adventurous and do things like putting on DVB or overloading our attack (vs just a like for like change).
The point is that people when watching remember select moments more than an overall game. Especially over time, over a season. Of course you need to watch the game too to put context on everything, and it's useful to use stats combined with watching. But people shit on Fred as if he is a garbage player for the occasional mistake he makes, when he still provides far more to our overall game than any other midfielder capable of playing deep that we have. He's not top tier, but he is a good player none the less. You need a lot more than just a pass completion % stat to determine the quality of someone's passing, as someone with 100% might be infuriating to have on your team as they never try anything.
Having watched the game, had time to think about it further, do you have an opinion on the wider context that might justify Fred and Matic being below 80%? In this game were they high risk passing like De Bruyne or Bruno for instance?
I'm not sure what you're arguing. They had shit games. They didn't have shit games because of low passing percentage though. That's just one of the factors.
Not true at all. I don't remember them making bad passes, however i do remember them getting caught in possession. But I get it...you just want to argue. Troll on and fight the good fight my angry amigo...
All of those are easily available on fbref.
Sure it’s probably been mentioned in a thread that’s 3 pages deep about stats, but McTominay’s 51 passes per 90 puts him in the 47th percentile for attempted passes!
Having a midfielder who just simply doesn’t get on the ball and pass it around near enough is just not good enough. That’s insane. 47th!
For comparisons sake: Jorginho, Kovacic, Rodri, Henderson, and Gundogan are all comfortably in the 90th percentiles (70+ passes attempted per game). Fabinho 88th, Fred 79th.
Having a midfielder who just simply doesn’t get on the ball and pass it around near enough is just not good enough. That’s insane. 47th!
For comparisons sake: Jorginho, Kovacic, Rodri, Henderson, and Gundogan are all comfortably in the 90th percentiles (70+ passes attempted per game). Fabinho 88th, Fred 79th.
I think if you look at Fred's and McTominays overall stats together, it becomes quite evident that there's also a certain division of labor playing into that. While Fred does a lot of pressing and is quite heavily involved in the build-up, McTominay is more of a sitter - very low pressing numbers and not that much ball involvement, but does well on purely defensive things like blocks and interceptions.
That being said, if Fred looks better statistically than many people seem to find him on the basis of the eye test, with McTominay it's the opposite. He's really low percentiles across a great number of areas - both on and off the ball.
Then again, his passing stats aren't that bad. Number of passes made is a stat heavily reflective of role and degree of involvement in that aspect of the game, rather than aptitude. A lot of them are 60-70 percentile - f.e. key passes, pass completion, Progressive passing distance, passes into the attacking third and progressive passes/90.
In short, he contributes. But he shouldn't be starting regularly for this team, and is a more obvious weak point than Fred in my opinion.
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Oh I still remember back then Carrick was the scapegoat for our sideway passing. It was brutal Redcafe.
Not until Scholes retired Carrick began to take the main responsibility as the deeplying playmaker.
I dunno I think Carrick was just a few years too early to be properly appreciated, at the time the ideal CM was seen as someone more gung ho, box to box, diving into tackles and scoring goals. Even Keane's passing and build up play was underappreciated until years later, he was typecast as a ball winning thug.