The smallpox vaccine yielded persistent, low levels, of antibody for the lifetime of individuals. No reason that the current vaccinations can not, and are not, doing that. The issue arises in having such a massive pool of unvaccinated people compounded by the huge difference in viral mutations rates between RNA (COVID) and dsDNA viruses (smallpox). Add those together and you have a virus that can "outgrow" vaccinations. A true global vaccination effort coupled with rapid adjustment to create variant specific "boosters", which is only an option now because of mRNA technology, could do it. It won't because humans can't agree on anything these days, but it could work.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
Mate, I posted earlier that over here we already have reached 70% on two doses.
In the last two months we dropped from 1st place in Covid deaths per million for 6-8 weeks on the trot to 1.5% of ICU beds with Covid cases. No lockdowns, we never had any, even at the height of it, just vaccination playing out.
We started vaccinating in March so obviously drew upon learnings/suspicions (e.g. no AZ for women under 50). Rather than turn the exceptions into negationist arguments, I'd focus on their value to progress vaccination more safely. I know if I were one of those rare death cases I'd find the latter more appealing.
That is awesome news and I am incredibly jealous.
Eh? We know a significant enough number of vaccinated people are still contracting Covid-19.
That's a huge difference from moving town to town, City to City, Country to Country knowing that each vaccine is a person who can no longer contract the disease, that's how we could hunt down smallpox to the last African villages. How on Earth do you see that working in this case?
They are, but at a reduced rate and they are much less infectious if they do get it. The more people who are vaccinated the harder it is for the virus to persist. Think of it like a toilet bowl with the water being the virus pool and the flush being vaccination. The available virus pool gets smaller and smaller until eventually it is negligible. Of course in my analogy we also have to throw in the 4 year old antivaxers who have decided to stuff a shirt into the toilet.
I think that scenario is about as likely as Brentford winning the Champions League next season.
We're talking 7.67 billion people here.
That is more likely than global eradication, that is why I said it would not happen, but was possible. The better analogy would be Brentford winning it this year.
The scenario could look like this:
-At some point we are going to have polyvalent mRNA vaccine that will protect against multiple variants. Based on the literature there seems to be homology in the areas of mutation for the variants, so we should be able to design a package that can be effective against almost all current and future S protein variants (within reason).
-If we could (
) get to a rapid 95% vaccination rate we could get the R0 to well below 1, which would lead to an eventual functional eradication.-Continued monitoring for variant breakthroughs and rapid, directed, boosters if needed.
Again, that is not going to happen, but it is possible.
95% of the planet? rapidly?-If we could (
Yep, hence the laughy thingy on my end.95% of the planet? rapidly?
Edit:
I mentioned this in the vaccine thread, but I could see us in 10 years at a place where vaccines could be produced in pharmacies in an hour or so. The vaccine itself is relatively simple as it is a basic transport media, the mRNA, and the carrier particle. For Moderna and Pfizer that carrier particle is, along with the mRNA, a self assembling lipid nanoparticle. Rapid mRNA production is not difficult from a biology/engineering perspective, so the drug companies could just ship the other components and the vaccines could be produced on site, eliminating the need for ultra low temp storage and transport.
Yeah I wasn't laughing at you, but with you.
Too many people live way too isolated for a rapid vaccination of 7.4 billion people, even worse when that vaccine needs to be kept cold. It's a theory full of "if" and "if" and "if", you'd need thousands of probable issues to just perfectly line up for it to work, and we're a World in which we can't even stop some cnut chopping down the Amazon.
It's as bizarre an idea as the "hard lockdown the entire World for 3 months and it'll be gone".
Thought so but you never know on this place
.When it comes to many of these issues it is frustrating as the solution is so clear in principal, but so unattainable because of humans doing stupid selfish human things.
Was in Liverpool for a stag over the weekend.
Everything just seemed back to normal.
Mental difference between there and NI
Everything just seemed back to normal.
Mental difference between there and NI
Unfortunately blanket red listed anyway being in South America, so no Cavani
Which is just stupid. No country should be on a red list as long as the US is not. I'm not complaining as it means we get Pulisic/Steffen/Sargeant/Horvath this window, and god forbid Germany ever red lists us before WCQ'sUnfortunately blanket red listed anyway being in South America, so no Cavani
....Ireland opening back up again slowly from Sept 6th (for example, indoor gigs/plays etc at 60% capacity for fully vaxxed). All going well most restrictions will be gone by Oct 22nd except mask wearing on public transport and in hospital settings.
Fingers crossed!
Fingers crossed!
Nicely timed with numbers dropping over last two days. Remains to be seen what effect the kids going back to school have. Thankfully we’ve vaccinated a good chunk (the majority?) of secondary schoolers.
I don't really get why they are doing everything else involving public transport and people being back in offices so close to the schools reopening and I'm pessisimtic as to whether the 22nd Oct will actually happen given the annual HSE shitshow that usually occurs around that time will surely be even worse than normal, but here's hoping!
My university has become a pretty interesting case study in lockdown vs vaccines or alpha vs delta:
(all data taken from: https://coronavirus.duke.edu/covid-testing/)
Fall 2020: most classes online. Some lab classes in-person. Research students aren't full-time in lab. Most campus restaurants closed, others are pick-up only. Indoor masking, pretty strict. No outdoor groups. No vaccinations. Alpha variant.
Over 4.5 months, 240 cases (both those who tested positive and also 150 who were contact-traced).
Spring 2021: Same situation with classes, but research students have returned mostly. Same situation with campus restaurants as before, but indoor masking rules a little more relaxed if eating far apart from others, and eating is allowed in groups outdoors. Alpha variant, very few vaccinated at the start, a solid chunk vaccinated by the end.
Over 4 months, 935 cases (including 500 that were contact-traced). A big cluster of a few hundred cases was linked to an off-campus party.
Fall 2021: A supposed indoor mask mandate but also indoor eating allowed. All restaurants open. Many classes in-person. All research students back in their labs. 95% vaccination rate. Delta.
350 positives in 2 weeks (and that doesn't include contact-tracing I think).
Either delta is that much worse, or vaccinations are really poor on transmission, or lockdowns were the holy grail.
(all data taken from: https://coronavirus.duke.edu/covid-testing/)
Fall 2020: most classes online. Some lab classes in-person. Research students aren't full-time in lab. Most campus restaurants closed, others are pick-up only. Indoor masking, pretty strict. No outdoor groups. No vaccinations. Alpha variant.
Over 4.5 months, 240 cases (both those who tested positive and also 150 who were contact-traced).
Spring 2021: Same situation with classes, but research students have returned mostly. Same situation with campus restaurants as before, but indoor masking rules a little more relaxed if eating far apart from others, and eating is allowed in groups outdoors. Alpha variant, very few vaccinated at the start, a solid chunk vaccinated by the end.
Over 4 months, 935 cases (including 500 that were contact-traced). A big cluster of a few hundred cases was linked to an off-campus party.
Fall 2021: A supposed indoor mask mandate but also indoor eating allowed. All restaurants open. Many classes in-person. All research students back in their labs. 95% vaccination rate. Delta.
350 positives in 2 weeks (and that doesn't include contact-tracing I think).
Either delta is that much worse, or vaccinations are really poor on transmission, or lockdowns were the holy grail.
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Or combination of a bit of everything and methodological quirks in study design (e.g. more routine testing) with non-adherence, too many variables etc. With delta circulating, those cases were out of over 15000 with a positivity rate of 1.59%, not sure how that tallies up with national/local rates
Also this is good news, even with majority being younger side
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/education/article253851373.html
They’re testing the hell out of their students. No wonder they’re picking up a bunch of asymptomatic/very mild cases.
We must be getting close to a point where all this obsessive testing can start to wind down. With an endemic virus in a heavily vaccinated population there doesn’t seem to be a lot of sense in chasing down every single asymptomatic case. It’s expensive, disruptive and not very helpful.
Presumably all positive lateral flow tests are followed by a PCR test which then means we are able to analyse the virus and keep a look out for potentially dangerous mutations?
You can screen for mutations by testing symptomatic cases only. If a mutation only ever causes asymptomatic illness then we can ignore it.
Here here.
So can anyone give me any insight into whats happening in Israel please? Highest new cases happening since this whole thing started despite a what I believe was a decent vaccination program. Its a worry.
PCR test will not tell you if there are mutations except if the mutations are extensive enough, and in the primer region, so that the primers do not bind (which would give you a negative result). Mutations will need to be tracked via sequencing.
I thought in the UK we were sequencing all positive results and building a massive data set on how the virus is evolving and how it’s spreading.
Not all but representative sample.
we’ve come a loooong way in science. I remember having to read sequencing gels back in grad school. Those bastards took forever and were a pain in the ass. Next came Sanger sequencing which took a while but was (mostly) automated. Now with next gen sequencing we can sequence samples quickly and on a massive scale. Amazing.
edit: the human genome project took in excess of a billion dollars and over a decade. It requires a massive room full of machines. I could do it tomorrow for a few hundred bucks.
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It was on the basis of this testing that they decided yesterday to stop letting us eat at restaurants - I think the large-scale testing helped make a (correct) decision.
In earlier semesters, it was the testing (and subsequent tracing) that helped keep numbers low in comparison to much bigger outbreaks at other colleges. Though that was probably excessive - as a TA, 1-2X/week for me, and 2-3X/week for my students.
I know some people involved in designing the tests and they devised a simple method to pool samples to avoid wasting too much material on surveillance testing..
It was on the basis of this testing that they decided yesterday to stop letting us eat at restaurants - I think the large-scale testing helped make a (correct) decision.
In earlier semesters, it was the testing (and subsequent tracing) that helped keep numbers low in comparison to much bigger outbreaks at other colleges. Though that was probably excessive - as a TA, 1-2X/week for me, and 2-3X/week for my students.
I know some people involved in designing the tests and they devised a simple method to pool samples to avoid wasting too much material on surveillance testing..
Interesting. Thanks. I’m acutely aware that me sniping at the decisions of public health physicians is about as valid as assorted posters on redcafe trying to criticise the tactics of a premier league manager. I just think a point has to come where you treat this like any other viral illness. Diagnosis only matters if someone is sick. When we reach that point will depend on loads of factors and vary from place to place. It just seems a little strange that we’re not yet at that point in a population where 95% are fully vaccinated.
This has been addressed a few times in this thread over the last dozen pages or so. basically they didn't get a high enough proportion of their over 70s vaccinated.
Thanks for that, I should have checked back.
200+ deaths in the UK. Numbers still shock me when I see them, you think I'd be used to it by now.
My sister who lives near Manchester says there are no apparent restrictions anywhere anymore, some people are wearing masks, many don't. I'm sure many people here will confirm this. The end result is high numbers of cases and deaths, unfortunately. In Italy we have 6.5K cases today and it's been holding around that number for a while, and 51 deaths.
We have to show the Green Pass to go inside restaurants, bars and even public transport, and masks are still worn inside shops - many people still wear them outside, too. Certain jobs require the vaccine, this is being enforced. I don't believe the Italians are any more compliant than British people, but solely from what I've seen there seems to be a pretty high level of acceptance.
Vaccine take-up is similar to the UK, although we were later starting here. Half of all 12-18s have been jabbed. Our little village has been stuffed full of people both from other parts of Italy and abroad all through August, and yet we are Covid-free at the moment.
Johnson said there would be a Freedom Day and is willing to see the numbers stay high. I'd rather be in Italy where the changes are incremental.
Bank holiday build up? I was expecting 180-190 yesterday but realised it was Tuesday after holidays. Was wondering why it was still only double digits yesterday.
You're right about the shock.
I'm in the UK at the moment, posting from a 6pm Manchester - London train. I'm the only one in the carriage wearing a mask, and it was the same coming up the other day. Feels quite uncomfortable and I'm looking forward to getting back to Italy where its infinitely more sensible.
I know what you mean. I went to the cinema on Monday and we were pretty much the only ones apart from the staff wearing masks. Definitely felt like we got weird looks, but may have just been overthinking it.
There was only sanitiser at the entrance to the building, screen doors weren’t hooked open when entering, so you had to pull it open by the handle that everyone has touched. Then everyone is obviously going to be eating popcorn etc once inside and having touched the door.
I’m happy to take responsibility myself, but it’s annoying when companies don’t have basic procedures in place to help any more.
Couldn’t agree more with this. Pisses me off so much. It’s pure laziness.
So when are the people living in Europe going to stop wearing masks? I presume never from some of the posts here. Or are you waiting for a booster vaccine?