SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Pogue Mahone

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I don't think it'll be any worse than usual.

There won't be two years' worth of colds and flus queuing up to get you, because there hasn't been two years' worth of widespread infecting and mutating to create new variants.

2022 should be more or less like 2019 in terms of seasonal bugs. Covid-19 has been like switching off the supermarket conveyor belt, rather than pushing back the items and waiting to release them in one go.
Apparently getting exposed to cold/flu viruses every year does help your immunity. You can think of it as an annual booster vaccine. So there is a lot of concern in the medical community about a brutal surge of “normal” viruses this winter.
 
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Apparently getting exposed to cold/flu viruses every year does help your immunity. You can think of it as an annual booster vaccine. So there is a lot of concern in the medical community about a brutal surge of “normal” viruses this winter.
Aye, we had our second 9 weeks early and they’ve made a massive point to us personally and to the general public that they expect a large ”immunity debt” which can be a big worry when it comes to RS virus.
 

Massive Spanner

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I don't think it'll be any worse than usual.

There won't be two years' worth of colds and flus queuing up to get you, because there hasn't been two years' worth of widespread infecting and mutating to create new variants.

2022 should be more or less like 2019 in terms of seasonal bugs. Covid-19 has been like switching off the supermarket conveyor belt, rather than pushing back the items and waiting to release them in one go.
As Pogue said it's more about a lack of immunity due to not getting colds or flus, I thought that was fairly widespread knowledge?
 

Dante

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As Pogue said it's more about a lack of immunity due to not getting colds or flus, I thought that was fairly widespread knowledge?
The second half of the article makes the same point as me. The final takeaway is that it could go either way for the population at large.

But in terms of how it will affect you on a singular level, even the doctors being quoted don't mention anything about it being worse in healthy adults. It's kids and the clinically vulnerable they seem to be more worried about.
 

Penna

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Vietnam's pandemic.
My nephew's FIL has just gone home to Vietnam from England (it was almost impossible to get a flight) and they have to do 14 days of hotel quarantine there. Seems a bit excessive, but I think that's a result of the Vietnamese government not preparing, despite them having a completely normal year in 2020. Now there's a massive panic.
 

golden_blunder

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Well at least no one is over dosing themselves with horse dewormer meds trying to fight covid and ending up in hospital
 

jojojo

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Early on in the pandemic there was some evidence that suggested that prior SARS infection offered some protection against SARS2/covid. Now it looks like a research group has been able to go further. Could be an important weapon for treatment and vaccine makers.

 

The Cat

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Early on in the pandemic there was some evidence that suggested that prior SARS infection offered some protection against SARS2/covid. Now it looks like a research group has been able to go further. Could be an important weapon for treatment and vaccine makers.

Wow that's very interesting, hope so.
 

jojojo

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Covid deaths have probably been undercounted in many countries - whether due to lack of testing and other medical capacity or, at times, to political pressures. The Economist has been trying to tally covid reported deaths against best estimates of excess deaths.


Some countries are now showing a kind of overcounting - sometimes due to over-correction of reporting methods, low levels of flu and similar deaths. and the "earlier than expected" death of some of the frail elderly and others with major comorbidities.
 

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Review of the Emerging Evidence Demonstrating the Efficacy of Ivermectin in the Prophylaxis and Treatment of COVID-19

"Meta-analyses based on 18 randomized controlled treatment trials of ivermectin in COVID-19 have found large, statistically significant reductions in mortality, time to clinical recovery, and time to viral clearance. Furthermore, results from numerous controlled prophylaxis trials report significantly reduced risks of contracting COVID-19 with the regular use of ivermectin. Finally, the many examples of ivermectin distribution campaigns leading to rapid population-wide decreases in morbidity and mortality indicate that an oral agent effective in all phases of COVID-19 has been identified."

https://journals.lww.com/americanth...he_emerging_evidence_demonstrating_the.4.aspx
 

Beans

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Wolverine

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Review of the Emerging Evidence Demonstrating the Efficacy of Ivermectin in the Prophylaxis and Treatment of COVID-19

"Meta-analyses based on 18 randomized controlled treatment trials of ivermectin in COVID-19 have found large, statistically significant reductions in mortality, time to clinical recovery, and time to viral clearance. Furthermore, results from numerous controlled prophylaxis trials report significantly reduced risks of contracting COVID-19 with the regular use of ivermectin. Finally, the many examples of ivermectin distribution campaigns leading to rapid population-wide decreases in morbidity and mortality indicate that an oral agent effective in all phases of COVID-19 has been identified."

https://journals.lww.com/americanth...he_emerging_evidence_demonstrating_the.4.aspx
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02081-w
One the papers that was significantly important in that meta analysis has been withdrawn

Incidentally another meta analysis arrived at a different conclusion
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab591/6310839?searchresult=1

Compared with the standard of care or placebo, IVM did not reduce all-cause mortality, LOS, or viral clearance in RCTs in patients with mostly mild COVID-19. IVM did not have an effect on AEs or SAEs and is not a viable option to treat patients with COVID-19.
 

mav_9me

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Rather than turn the exceptions into negationist arguments, I'd focus on their value to progress vaccination more safely. I know if I were one of those rare death cases I'd find the latter more appealing.
Negationist is a weird argumentum ad hominem.
 

zing

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I came in contact(spend a few hours indoors) with someone who tested positive - I met him 4 days ago and I think he had symptoms on the day of me meeting him..

I've taken both doses -- can someone please advice the protocol for me? Would I need to isolate for 10 days?
 

jojojo

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I came in contact(spend a few hours indoors) with someone who tested positive - I met him 4 days ago and I think he had symptoms on the day of me meeting him..

I've taken both doses -- can someone please advice the protocol for me? Would I need to isolate for 10 days?
If you've got it, there's a good chance you're more or less at your most infectious for the next couple of days.

In the UK, the guidance for the double vaccinated is to get a PCR test, but that you don't need to self-isolate. Though there is a caveat about avoiding unnecessary social contact, or meeting with someone who's elderly or clinically vulnerable.

If you subsequently get symptoms, test again and self-isolate until you receive your PCR result. If you weren't double vaxxed the guidance would be to quarantine for ten days.

All of which might be easier said than done outside the UK.

Incidentally, I've been pinged by the covid app this week, for a contact on Friday, so I've just done a PCR test. As I can work from home and don't have to go out, I will quarantine myself for a couple more days - just in case...
 

jymufc20

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I came in contact(spend a few hours indoors) with someone who tested positive - I met him 4 days ago and I think he had symptoms on the day of me meeting him..

I've taken both doses -- can someone please advice the protocol for me? Would I need to isolate for 10 days?
I don't think you have to isolate if you have been double jabbed anymore (which I think is a pretty daft idea to be honest)
 

Pogue Mahone

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If you've got it, there's a good chance you're more or less at your most infectious for the next couple of days.

In the UK, the guidance for the double vaccinated is to get a PCR test, but that you don't need to self-isolate. Though there is a caveat about avoiding unnecessary social contact, or meeting with someone who's elderly or clinically vulnerable.

If you subsequently get symptoms, test again and self-isolate until you receive your PCR result. If you weren't double vaxxed the guidance would be to quarantine for ten days.

All of which might be easier said than done outside the UK.
Interesting. In Ireland the guidance is no need to restrict movements or get tested, if you’re a fully vaccinated close contact. Crazy how much variation there is when you’d hope there could be some sort of scientific consensus.

@zing You need to seek out and follow local guidance. As you can see, the recommendations differ from country to country. Might even vary regionally within big countries.
 

jojojo

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Interesting. In Ireland the guidance is no need to restrict movements or get tested, if you’re a fully vaccinated close contact. Crazy how much variation there is when you’d hope there could be some sort of scientific consensus.

@zing You need to seek out and follow local guidance. As you can see, the recommendations differ from country to country. Might even vary regionally within big countries.
I think the timing issue is a problem as well. I'm told I had "an encounter" on Friday. But that quotes last contact not initial contact (if it was repeated encounters) - I was staying at a hotel from Wednesday to Friday.

If it really was Friday only, then the PCR test I was told to do yesterday was perhaps a bit early - which is better than too late or not at all, but shows how hit and miss some of the guidance is in practice.

Automatically sending me some LFT kits when I registered the PCR test and asking me to retest with those during the week would seem to cover things better.

So, who knows, all these countries are following the science and we're now at the phase of handling the move to normality etc, so they're all feeling their way.

Ireland has the great advantage of very high vaccination rates across the population now, which should cut most infection chains short anyway. Plus you're starting from relatively low case rates, so you should be able to see trouble coming.
 

zing

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Interesting. In Ireland the guidance is no need to restrict movements or get tested, if you’re a fully vaccinated close contact. Crazy how much variation there is when you’d hope there could be some sort of scientific consensus.

@zing You need to seek out and follow local guidance. As you can see, the recommendations differ from country to country. Might even vary regionally within big countries.
I think the timing issue is a problem as well. I'm told I had "an encounter" on Friday. But that quotes last contact not initial contact (if it was repeated encounters) - I was staying at a hotel from Wednesday to Friday.

If it really was Friday only, then the PCR test I was told to do yesterday was perhaps a bit early - which is better than too late or not at all, but shows how hit and miss some of the guidance is in practice.

Automatically sending me some LFT kits when I registered the PCR test and asking me to retest with those during the week would seem to cover things better.

So, who knows, all these countries are following the science and we're now at the phase of handling the move to normality etc, so they're all feeling their way.

Ireland has the great advantage of very high vaccination rates across the population now, which should cut most infection chains short anyway. Plus you're starting from relatively low case rates, so you should be able to see trouble coming.
Thanks both - I'm in India and there's no guidelines around this. I was asking for the right thing to do as you say - because I come in contact with my parents who are elderly, and I'd also like to not spread it around if I have it. I am comfortable isolating for as long as it takes as I work from home and have my own place.

The person I met was - I am told now - unwell on the day I met him and I spent 5 hours indoors.
 

Garethw

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So the UK government is considering another “fire breaker” for October.

The plans are allegedly to increase the October half term to 2 weeks. Reimplement social distancing and mask wearing in shops etc. Reduce the number of people permitted to enter your home and a worst case scenario national lockdown with only essential shops open.

I really hope all of these inconsiderate cnuts that have refused vaccines and are also refusing to use common sense when they are out and about are proud of themselves.

Sick to death of all of this now.
 

Pexbo

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So the UK government is considering another “fire breaker” for October.

The plans are allegedly to increase the October half term to 2 weeks. Reimplement social distancing and mask wearing in shops etc. Reduce the number of people permitted to enter your home and a worst case scenario national lockdown with only essential shops open.

I really hope all of these inconsiderate cnuts that have refused vaccines and are also refusing to use common sense when they are out and about are proud of themselves.

Sick to death of all of this now.
Oh perfect. I’ve got a free holiday with my partner’s family on a canal boat for a week during half term so I guess that will be out of the question.
 

Woodzy

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So the UK government is considering another “fire breaker” for October.

The plans are allegedly to increase the October half term to 2 weeks. Reimplement social distancing and mask wearing in shops etc. Reduce the number of people permitted to enter your home and a worst case scenario national lockdown with only essential shops open.

I really hope all of these inconsiderate cnuts that have refused vaccines and are also refusing to use common sense when they are out and about are proud of themselves.

Sick to death of all of this now.
It's been denied, not that this would mean anything really since they are full of shit either way.

I'm not in England but regardless, more lockdowns at this point would cause chaos.
 

zing

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My friend had COVID in March - this is India at the beginning of the second wave, so it presumably would’ve been delta.. he took the Indian vaccine last month and the second dose was a week ago. Today he’s tested positive for COVID again — both times he’s had similar symptoms of fever of around 101.. this time it’s a little worse. How improbable is this?..
 

Pogue Mahone

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My friend had COVID in March - this is India at the beginning of the second wave, so it presumably would’ve been delta.. he took the Indian vaccine last month and the second dose was a week ago. Today he’s tested positive for COVID again — both times he’s had similar symptoms of fever of around 101.. this time it’s a little worse. How improbable is this?..
Not very, unfortunately.

Assuming “Indian vaccine” is AZ then he wouldn’t be fully protected a week after the second dose so he can consider himself very unlucky.
 

zing

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Not very, unfortunately.

Assuming “Indian vaccine” is AZ then he wouldn’t be fully protected a week after the second dose so he can consider himself very unlucky.
Not AZ. There's a locally developed one called Covaxin.
 

jojojo

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Not AZ. There's a locally developed one called Covaxin.
The inactivated virus vaccines are all struggling really. The Cuban one has gone directly to a three dose model. The Chinese ones (outside China) will probably get a mRNA third/booster dose to push the efficacy up.

Very unusual for him to have the misfortune of testing positive in March and again now, as that probably means he's caught Delta twice. If that becomes common it will definitely be a problem.
 
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How do we move forward out of this with natural winter coughs and colds?

A cough is a covid symptom, we’re all going to get more and more coughs. Can’t shut our lives down for ten days at a time everyone we get a standard cough

Surely have to allow daily LF testing to allow a more normal life once cleared by a PCR
 

jojojo

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How do we move forward out of this with natural winter coughs and colds?

A cough is a covid symptom, we’re all going to get more and more coughs. Can’t shut our lives down for ten days at a time everyone we get a standard cough

Surely have to allow daily LF testing to allow a more normal life once cleared by a PCR
In the UK, if you get symptoms, get a PCR test and stay home. If the test comes back negative you don't have to quarantine any longer, assuming you aren't actually still ill that is. It's best if people don't give each other other respiratory viruses as well really.

As for non-covid post-viral coughs that keep you coughing long after you feel well - I recommend honey :smirk:

LFTs are good if you've got no symptoms. For this winter at least, encouraging more people to use them routinely would be a good thing.