Cold War against China?

RoyH1

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I hoped that this war never got hot, but now I see it as increasingly likely. The CCP will not be denied in its ambitions and the old lion, USA, will not give up his place in the pride without a fight.
 

Maticmaker

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The AUKUS agreement is important in itself because for one thing it shows the major powers involved are taking China's expansionist threat seriously enough to both stick it to the French (cancelled £30B sub contract) and upset the New Zealanders (who want a Nuclear free zone) in just reaching such an agreement.
This changing (or at least 'pivoting') of alliances/agreements is likely to be a first step in further such movements around the world. China will have the Russian Bear on one side and its expansionist plans in the South China Sea area is now prompting a nuclear response on the other.
What odds are there on China now taking a more interested role in Afghanistan?
 

hungrywing

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The AUKUS agreement is important in itself because for one thing it shows the major powers involved are taking China's expansionist threat seriously enough to both stick it to the French (cancelled £30B sub contract) and upset the New Zealanders (who want a Nuclear free zone) in just reaching such an agreement.
This changing (or at least 'pivoting') of alliances/agreements is likely to be a first step in further such movements around the world. China will have the Russian Bear on one side and its expansionist plans in the South China Sea area is now prompting a nuclear response on the other.
What odds are there on China now taking a more interested role in Afghanistan?
Yes-and-or-duh.

On a more serious note, what’s the greater Islamic world’s view on China’s treatment of the Uighurs.
 

Maticmaker

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On a more serious note, what’s the greater Islamic world’s view on China’s treatment of the Uighurs.
I think it is serious, because China's potential involvement directly with a (next door) Islamic state means the two things are linked, but only because the Uighurs are apparently perceived as an internal threat to the Chinese Government and are it appears are persecuted for their religious beliefs.
As for the Islamic worlds view on this you, tell me... whatever it maybe it does not receive much coverage in the British media.
 

Sultan

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The US and UK gazumping France's 30 billion business deal. Just as one door slightly shuts in Afghanistan the US/UK opens its gates into another potential cold war.
 

11101

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The US and UK gazumping France's 30 billion business deal. Just as one door slightly shuts in Afghanistan the US/UK opens its gates into another potential cold war.
Cancelling the French deal was little surprise. It was to be a brand new diesel electric version of a nuclear submarine, and after the last lot of submarines was full of problems it was always a risky project on shaky ground.

Then you have the Chinese military expanding aggressively South and it's no surprise Australia wants to get closer to the US. It's China pushing the world towards a new Cold War, not the US.
 

hungrywing

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I think it is serious, because China's potential involvement directly with a (next door) Islamic state means the two things are linked, but only because the Uighurs are apparently perceived as an internal threat to the Chinese Government and are it appears are persecuted for their religious beliefs.
As for the Islamic worlds view on this you, tell me... whatever it maybe it does not receive much coverage in the British media.
Hmm. Looks like it’s still the same as a few years ago.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ates-stay-silent-over-chinas-uighur-brutality

https://www.rferl.org/a/islamic-world-china-uyghurs/31324045.html

https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com...a-muslim-governments-give-beijing-a-free-pass

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...y-countries-support-chinas-crackdown-muslims/
 

Buster15

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I wanted to reply in the last thread on this but it gave me "don't bump old threads" notification, so hereby a new thread.

I've been doing a lot of reading on China lately. Fascinating stuff honestly. They're probably a bigger adversary than the Soviet Union for the West.

China seems to be surpassing Russia in 5th gen fighter jet development with its J20 jet.

According to some military report I've found, the Chinese have also achieved parity and/or exceeded the US in a couple of areas (shipbuilding for example).

Despite their progress they still have military weaknesses which China hopes to have addressed by 2050 approximately.

But all in all, China seems to become more aggressive in their pursuit to becoming a superpower.

Thoughts?
Each year, China adds more ships to their navy than the whole of NATO.
And you are right about their J20 fighter. Maybe not a match for the USAF F22. But getting there.
In terms of fighter jets, their achillies heel was their ability to design and develop modern jet engines. They had relied on Russia.
But again, they have focused a huge amount of resources on closing that gap. And they are making progress.

In terms of a Cold War, it is China who is responsible for the West and especially the US, Australia and UK to agree a defence pact to provide Australia with new nuclear powered submarines.
 

Buster15

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Cancelling the French deal was little surprise. It was to be a brand new diesel electric version of a nuclear submarine, and after the last lot of submarines was full of problems it was always a risky project on shaky ground.

Then you have the Chinese military expanding aggressively South and it's no surprise Australia wants to get closer to the US. It's China pushing the world towards a new Cold War, not the US.
Exactly that.
 

stevoc

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Each year, China adds more ships to their navy than the whole of NATO.
And you are right about their J20 fighter. Maybe not a match for the USAF F22. But getting there.
In terms of fighter jets, their achillies heel was their ability to design and develop modern jet engines. They had relied on Russia.
But again, they have focused a huge amount of resources on closing that gap. And they are making progress.

In terms of a Cold War, it is China who is responsible for the West and especially the US, Australia and UK to agree a defence pact to provide Australia with new nuclear powered submarines.
Probably not and the F22 was developed in the 90's and is now being phased out and made obsolete by the F35. Which maybe gives us an idea of how far China are militarily behind the USA still.
 

Foxbatt

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Where is this expansion that some of you talk about? I don't see that they have invaded or bombed or building bases anywhere apart from some shoals that they themselves, Vietnam and The Philippines have occupied.
 

Zlatattack

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Probably not and the F22 was developed in the 90's and is now being phased out and made obsolete by the F35. Which maybe gives us an idea of how far China are militarily behind the USA still.
The F-22 is being retired because of it's cost, not because it's tech is obselete.
 

hungrywing

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So if China does move on Afghanistan, we can expect silence from Islamic countries, is that your expectation?
No idea.

If you mean move on as in militarily (which I’m sure you didn’t), then other countries would express concern to say the least.

But surely it’ll be economically and the offer of legitimacy. “Hey now that the annoying stupid Americans are gone, your big friend for the past five thousand years is here with a nice bag of money for you as long as you promise to pipe down a bit. And who knows, maybe an even bigger bag of money should you prove worth it.
 

Zlatattack

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So if China does move on Afghanistan, we can expect silence from Islamic countries, is that your expectation?
What do you mean by move? Invade? If the Chinese ever invaded, they'd face the same fate that the Americans and Soviets faced. Look at what happened to the US. Russia helped the Taliban, Qatar, helped the Taliban, Pakistan and Iran helped.

If the Chinese invaded, i'm sure the West would be looking to use proxies to undermine the Chinese military efforts and bleed them economically for 20 years.
 

Zlatattack

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I think it is serious, because China's potential involvement directly with a (next door) Islamic state means the two things are linked, but only because the Uighurs are apparently perceived as an internal threat to the Chinese Government and are it appears are persecuted for their religious beliefs.
As for the Islamic worlds view on this you, tell me... whatever it maybe it does not receive much coverage in the British media.
Islamic solidarity is not a concept that exists in political terms anymore. It's all about the self interests of nation states. Any talk of it is for domestic consumption, to woo, placate conservative voters.

There is an interest phrase in Urdu, "Haathi ke daand; kanay ke aur, dikhanay ke hor". It translates to; "The elephants teeth; different ones to eat, different ones to show". Much like an elephants tusks are not for eating, they are just for show, in the modern world, the leaders of the Islamic world use islamic unity as a popularity gimmick and don't actually work towards it. In reality they're engaged in spreading disunity. Hence the silence on the Uighurs, or Kashmir for example.
 

stevoc

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The F-22 is being retired because of it's cost, not because it's tech is obselete.
No doubt cost was a big factor and to be fair I said it is in the process of being made obsolete by the F-35, not that the F-22 is currently obsolete.
 

Eugenius

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No doubt cost was a big factor and to be fair I said it is in the process of being made obsolete by the F-35, not that the F-22 is currently obsolete.
Probably more because a lack of need for cold war era dog fighters, and more need for stealth.
 

Smores

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Cancelling the French deal was little surprise. It was to be a brand new diesel electric version of a nuclear submarine, and after the last lot of submarines was full of problems it was always a risky project on shaky ground.

Then you have the Chinese military expanding aggressively South and it's no surprise Australia wants to get closer to the US. It's China pushing the world towards a new Cold War, not the US.
I find that an odd take. Since when is a cold war situation created from relatively modest military spending per capita/GDP.

The US is the one with the much much larger military spend and the one making protectionist strategic moves on China's border. They're the ones creating the hostile atmosphere.

I don't think it's inevitable that the US has to assert itself against any growing economic power like this.
 

Buster15

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Probably not and the F22 was developed in the 90's and is now being phased out and made obsolete by the F35. Which maybe gives us an idea of how far China are militarily behind the USA still.
Wasn't aware that the F22 was being phased out. I was of course aware that the production numbers were cut to about 170.
And the J20 had a pretty long development cycle, so the design could be some 20 years old.
But it is the speed of progress that China is making is the point.
And the next generation of fighter jets (6th) which will be interesting.
 

utdalltheway

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I wouldn't be surprised if the US Administrations (current and past) have called the Chinese to say "hey we need a bogeyman (to keep the military industrial complex going) and tag you're it so don't worry what we say in public; that's just fodder for the masses".
Or is that too outrageous?
 

Buster15

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I wouldn't be surprised if the US Administrations (current and past) have called the Chinese to say "hey we need a bogeyman (to keep the military industrial complex going) and tag you're it so don't worry what we say in public; that's just fodder for the masses".
Or is that too outrageous?
Not sure about outrageous. But you have a very vivid imagination.
 

VorZakone

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58581296
Top US General Mark Milley has defended himself after a book reported he had "secret" phone calls with China amid concerns about then-President Donald Trump.
The calls last October and January were to reassure the Chinese military, Gen Milley said on Wednesday.
Mr Trump said the claims were fabricated and Republicans have called for the general to be fired.
President Joe Biden said he has "great confidence" in Gen Milley.
Gen Milley's spokesman said that the calls were in keeping with his "duties and responsibilities conveying reassurance in order to maintain strategic stability".
The phone calls to Chinese General Li Zuocheng were revealed on Tuesday in extracts from a new book by Washington Post investigative reporters. They were made just after the presidential election and after Mr Trump refused to accept his defeat.

The book, "Peril", said that after the January 6 riots, Gen Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, "was certain that Trump had gone into a serious mental decline in the aftermath of the election".
He was allegedly worried that Mr Trump could "go rogue", the book claims.
 

freeurmind

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Where is this expansion that some of you talk about? I don't see that they have invaded or bombed or building bases anywhere apart from some shoals that they themselves, Vietnam and The Philippines have occupied.
Only the US and the UK have the right to expel people from their homes to build military bases and ignore international law.
 

nickm

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I find that an odd take. Since when is a cold war situation created from relatively modest military spending per capita/GDP.

The US is the one with the much much larger military spend and the one making protectionist strategic moves on China's border. They're the ones creating the hostile atmosphere.
It's not the US pressuring Taiwan, or asserting claims to the South China Sea. Arguably China is doing these things because they think they can, is because the US has been doing relatively feck all about it.
 

Foxbatt

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It's not the US pressuring Taiwan, or asserting claims to the South China Sea. Arguably China is doing these things because they think they can, is because the US has been doing relatively feck all about it.
It would be highly ridiculous for the US to assert any claims on South China Sea. After all it is called South "China" Sea.
 

Sultan

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It's not the US pressuring Taiwan, or asserting claims to the South China Sea. Arguably China is doing these things because they think they can, is because the US has been doing relatively feck all about it.
They'll carry on doing nothing and only ever bully those who they think can defeat. If the history and experiences of the last 20 years are anything to by they'll simply end up messing with the stability of the region. There's no way the US or any other country will go into direct confrontation with China.
 

Cardboard elk

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It is not always wars are started deliberately though. The hotter the climate of a conflict, the more chance of an accidental incident setting of a conflict. None of this, from any POV, is a good development. And while the focus is on China, it will be interesting to see if anything happens with Ukraine. Would be typical of Putin to use the right timing to settle that conflict. What a lovely world we have. We humans are really our worst enemies.

I see the problem with China myself. I do see problems with the Us also though, and countless other nations for that matter. None is perfect, but some is definately a lot worse. UK might burn itself too, if America is always first.. France today, who is the next "friend" to be shoved aside? I remember the 90's. The world seemed to be going in the right direction. Now it seems we are taking several u-turns in the wrong direction.
 

Paul the Wolf

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So China are applying to join the CPTPP just as the UK have - should be interesting.

The submarines that were to be new French designs and which Aus have already paid $2bn and then have to pay compensation to the French company. These were to replace the Collins submarines in 2032 and were to be built in Adelaide, Australia.

Under the new deal , 20 year old technology US submarines will be built in Adelaide, Australia and at as yet an undetermined cost to replace the Collins submarines in 2040 when the technology will be 40 years old.

Biden probably p!ssed by Airbus outdoing Boeing and Boris tags along as his poodle like in the 1960s.
 

Balljy

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So China are applying to join the CPTPP just as the UK have - should be interesting.

The submarines that were to be new French designs and which Aus have already paid $2bn and then have to pay compensation to the French company. These were to replace the Collins submarines in 2032 and were to be built in Adelaide, Australia.

Under the new deal , 20 year old technology US submarines will be built in Adelaide, Australia and at as yet an undetermined cost to replace the Collins submarines in 2040 when the technology will be 40 years old.

Biden probably p!ssed by Airbus outdoing Boeing and Boris tags along as his poodle like in the 1960s.
They're doing it to make a point against the US, which is understandable but I think it's unlikely considering the land disagreements going on in the area involving China.
 

Paul the Wolf

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They're doing it to make a point, which is understandable but I think it's unlikely considering the land disagreements going on in the area involving China.
For sure they going to make a point; problem is Australia are very closely related trade wise with China so all sorts of complications could arise and the UK has very little to gain trade wise by joining the CPTPP, despite claims by the UK government.
 

Balljy

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For sure they going to make a point; problem is Australia are very closely related trade wise with China so all sorts of complications could arise and the UK has very little to gain trade wise by joining the CPTPP, despite claims by the UK government.
Yes, but for China to join the CPTPP they'd need all 11 members to vote for it and that's virtually impossible. If the Philippines join as is expected it's totally impossible as they're in constant land disputes.

Agreed that the UK has little to gain in comparison to the EU membership
 

11101

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I find that an odd take. Since when is a cold war situation created from relatively modest military spending per capita/GDP.

The US is the one with the much much larger military spend and the one making protectionist strategic moves on China's border. They're the ones creating the hostile atmosphere.

I don't think it's inevitable that the US has to assert itself against any growing economic power like this.
It's not the spending, its the activities. China has arbitrarily expanded its borders to encompass the entire South China Sea and put every country in that region at risk. The US is doing the right thing standing up to them because none of the countries in the region are capable of it.

Wasn't aware that the F22 was being phased out. I was of course aware that the production numbers were cut to about 170.
And the J20 had a pretty long development cycle, so the design could be some 20 years old.
But it is the speed of progress that China is making is the point.
And the next generation of fighter jets (6th) which will be interesting.
It's not. I'm not sure where that idea came from. The F22 is still the USAF's most capable air superiority fighter by some margin. Cost and the assumption that it wouldn't be needed killed it, not capability,
 

Paul the Wolf

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Yes, but for China to join the CPTPP they'd need all 11 members to vote for it and that's virtually impossible. If the Philippines join as is expected it's totally impossible as they're in constant land disputes.

Agreed that the UK has little to gain in comparison to the EU membership
Yes I'm sure they won't accept China but 40% of Australia's exports are to China. Australia and the UK seem intent on p!ssing off their main trade partners.