Eredivisie 2021-22

Terranova

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It makes sense though looking at the stats. Ajax is already at 30 goals in 7 matches, with only 1 conceded. Add in the 5-1 trashing of Sporting in the CL and you get some really nice stats.

Third best team seems a bit weird, but i'll take it:D
 

Cheimoon

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FiveThirtyEight currently model Ajax as the third best team in the world and third favourites for the Champions League. Be interesting to see how it rates them in six months' time.
What's that based on? :confused:
 

anant

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Stats after 1 round of CL football. Seeing as they won their first game 1-5, the biggest surprise is, who are 1 and 2?
Nah, league form is also taken into account. With a carryover from previous season and Transfermarkt squad value (the value of these 2 variables decreases as the season goes on).

Considering they've started the league in red hot form, not surprising to see their SPI this high now. But the model, like any model based on low data points, is currently quite flawed
 

VanDeBank

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They're not beating City Chelsea Bayern Liverpool PSG. If they play Onana and are a bit lucky with the draw they can get into semis.

They were very unlucky last year having to play their 3rd goalkeeper in the Europa. Should've gotten to face us otherwise.
 

VanDeBank

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Their model is a hybrid based on xG, non-shot xG and goals scored.
Thanks. Explains why they're so high. Those metrics are very inflated because of the Eredivisie and Ajax have yet to play the strongest sides.

Their last season is a better indication. Some terrible luck with the goalkeeper situation cost them a chance at the Europa League.
They've added Berghuis. Mazraoui is back. Timber, Gravenberch and Antony are a year further in their development. Blind and Tadic a year older on the wrong side of 30.

They're a bit stronger. Should make it out of groups at the least. If they play Onana and he gets back in form in time they can beat half the teams.
 

AjaxCunian

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They're not beating City Chelsea Bayern Liverpool PSG. If they play Onana and are a bit lucky with the draw they can get into semis.

They were very unlucky last year having to play their 3rd goalkeeper in the Europa. Should've gotten to face us otherwise.
Ajax has come awfully close or have beaten Chelsea, Liverpool, Bayern in fairly recent times. They might even be stronger now than then, at least the squad is.

They wouldn't be favourites and always the underdog, but I wouldnt say there is a team in the world Ajax can't beat, only that they can also be beaten by almost every team in the world as it has to gel and the goalkeepers are poor.


No idea why you can say that with such vim.
 

VanDeBank

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Ajax has come awfully close or have beaten Chelsea, Liverpool, Bayern in fairly recent times. They might even be stronger now than then, at least the squad is.

They wouldn't be favourites and always the underdog, but I wouldnt say there is a team in the world Ajax can't beat, only that they can also be beaten by almost every team in the world as it has to gel and the goalkeepers are poor.


No idea why you can say that with such vim.
You guys don't stand a chance against City, especially without a great Onana.

"Fairly recent times" doesn't mean anything if you play with 8 different players.

You guys had better players then. You know, the ones you sold to them: Ziyech, De Ligt, De Jong.
You're new young players aren't on the level of those. Even Antony was invisible in the Europa last year. The rest of the first XI is comparable to what it was in that great CL run.
 

AjaxCunian

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You guys don't stand a chance against City, especially without a great Onana.

"Fairly recent times" doesn't mean anything if you play with 8 different players.

You guys had better players then. You know, the ones you sold to them: Ziyech, De Ligt, De Jong.
You're new young players aren't on the level of those. Even Antony was invisible in the Europa last year. The rest of the first XI is comparable to what it was in that great CL run.
I think we have the best record against City funnily enough, the teams are different ofcourse.

Ziyech is awesome, Anthony might be up for it but if not, Berghuis/Neres are there as well. Even Daramy is looking like a freak as of now.

Haller has been an improvement on Dolberg, in general play not compared to Tadic but scores more. Tadic is there.

Alvarez en Gravenberch are a very balanced couple, neither are anywhere near de Jong but it works as well. Who knows if Kudus will find form.

Then Nous is even better in form than he was then and apart from PSV, Timber and Martinez are a fantastic partnership even more comfortable on the ball, and quicker than the partnership then.

I think then Nico, was better than Nico/Blind now and Onana is obviously better.

But then, Ten Hag has had even far more time to work on tactics, to implement his vision. Some of the things we see now are even better than that Ajax 18/19 team, as he is a manager who actually has a vision and knows how to implement it.

You just write Ajax off if that's what you want to be doing, I just think it's baseless.
 

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Nah, league form is also taken into account. With a carryover from previous season and Transfermarkt squad value (the value of these 2 variables decreases as the season goes on).

Considering they've started the league in red hot form, not surprising to see their SPI this high now. But the model, like any model based on low data points, is currently quite flawed
So it does not take into account whether you're playing might Cambuur Leeuwarden or puny Manchester United for instance? If that's the case, I'm again quite surprised they're not nr. 1.

TThat being said they're very good at the moment, but let's not pretend they're Bayern Munich. They had 1 semi tough league game this season which they drew against a fallen FC Twente and 1 tough game in the JC schaal which they lost 4-0 against what now seems to be a shite PSV (who loses 4-0 to Feyenoord at home ffs) The Sporting game was amazing, but my God, Feyenoord was accused of getting cocky after some good results in this thread :lol:
 
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AjaxCunian

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So it does not take into account whether you're playing might Cambuur Leeuwarden or puny Manchester United for instance? If that's the case, I'm again quite surprised they're not nr. 1.

TThat being said they're very good at the moment, but let's not pretend they're Bayern Munich. They had 1 semi tough league game this season which they drew against a fallen FC Twente. The Sporting game was amazing, but my God, Feyenoord was accused of getting cocky after skme good results in this thread :lol:
Why do you call them a 'fallen FC Twente'?

And no Ajacied is making it to seem as if they are Bayern Munich so who are you accusing?
 

KirkDuyt

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Why do you call them a 'fallen FC Twente'?

And no Ajacied is making it to seem as if they are Bayern Munich so who are you accusing?
You question someone stating you won't beat Bayern or City. So, you.

And I call them a fallen FC Twente because they're shite. They used to have players like Ruiz and Elia and now their star is Davy Pröppers rubbish little brother.

It's mostly the intense overestimating by Dutch media who have written of Dutch football on the back of 4 games.

Ajax is doing amazingly well, but they're not world class. Which is no shame, since you need more money for that.
 

therealtboy

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As a fan of Feyenoord, I really don't have any need to be objective so I won't be. Can't wait to kick Ajax asses on the 19th of December. Have my tickets booked and I'm back home for that game. Ajax need a proper rival, not this German version of PSV. We will take you guys to the end this season. Yeah I'm cocky, ironically it's because of ''Dick's'' torture last year. Don't blame me, it feels good to have a progressive manager. We're coming back baby.
 

KirkDuyt

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As a fan of Feyenoord, I really don't have any need to be objective so I won't be. Can't wait to kick Ajax asses on the 19th of December. Have my tickets booked and I'm back home for that game. Ajax need a proper rival, not this German version of PSV. We will take you guys to the end this season. Yeah I'm cocky, ironically it's because of ''Dick's'' torture last year. Don't blame me, it feels good to have a progressive manager. We're coming back baby.
Hahaha, I guess we do have a few cocky fans. Good for you mate, but I'm quite positive Ajax will wipe the floor with us :lol:
 

AjaxCunian

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You question someone stating you won't beat Bayern or City. So, you.

And I call them a fallen FC Twente because they're shite. They used to have players like Ruiz and Elia and now their star is Davy Pröppers rubbish little brother.

It's mostly the intense overestimating by Dutch media who have written of Dutch football on the back of 4 games.

Ajax is doing amazingly well, but they're not world class. Which is no shame, since you need more money for that.
This is a bit silly, Ajax has had some top performances vs the top teams over the past few years under Erik Ten Hag.

Why can't Ajax win one off-matches vs them? Or even knock-outs, you are probabky the same person that gave them 0 chance vs Juventus and Real Madrid a few years ago I must think.

FC Twente are in reasonably good form by winning 4 games in a row, and there is enouvh reason to believe they might end up in the left half of the table. Whether they have fallen off from their glory days is absolutely irrelevant to their current form.

So if you mention FC Twente and I mention the champions of Portugal in an away game, where do we go from there?

Nowhere am I saying Ajax would be favourites but I just don't know where it is coming from that they wouldnt stand a chance.

Did you know Liverpool drew Brentford by the way? They are so overrated.
 

KirkDuyt

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This is a bit silly, Ajax has had some top performances vs the top teams over the past few years under Erik Ten Hag.

Why can't Ajax win one off-matches vs them? Or even knock-outs, you are probabky the same person that gave them 0 chance vs Juventus and Real Madrid a few years ago I must think.

FC Twente are in reasonably good form by winning 4 games in a row, and there is enouvh reason to believe they might end up in the left half of the table. Whether they have fallen off from their glory days is absolutely irrelevant to their current form.

So if you mention FC Twente and I mention the champions of Portugal in an away game, where do we go from there?

Nowhere am I saying Ajax would be favourites but I just don't know where it is coming from that they wouldnt stand a chance.

Did you know Liverpool drew Brentford by the way? They are so overrated.
Obviously Ajax can beat them in a 1 off game. Greece won the Euro's after all. For the sake of discussion I'd imagine we are talking whether Ajax is near equal in strength to Bayern and City and it seemed to me that you were argueing they are. If you just meant, they're able to beat them in a knockout tie, sure, it could happen, it's football after all. But none of Ajax' players would start for Bayern or City and honestly, I struggle to name anyone other than Onana who'd even make the bench. Well, Antony in this form is fecking brilliant so maybe him.

I mentioned Sporting too by the way

For what it's worth, I hope Ajax will make me eat my words and win the CL, mind you. I'm not above cheering you cnuts on ;)
 

AjaxCunian

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Obviously Ajax can beat them in a 1 off game. Greece won the Euro's after all. For the sake of discussion I'd imagine we are talking whether Ajax is near equal in strength to Bayern and City and it seemed to me that you were argueing they are. If you just meant, they're able to beat them in a knockout tie, sure, it could happen, it's football after all. But none of Ajax' players would start for Bayern or City and honestly, I struggle to name anyone other than Onana who'd even make the bench. Well, Antony in this form is fecking brilliant so maybe him.

I mentioned Sporting too by the way ;)
I have no clue where you inferred that from.

But if only football was so simple as that, United might have managed to win a cheeky Europa League or FA Cup if that was the case.

I think Mazraoui, Tadic, Alvarez have the best chance to be squad players for what it's worth.

I think the whole pattern is that Ajax is capable of performing beyond their pure team quality because of the manager who makes use of the wualities that they do have. Some of these top teams don't at times and that's when or why you have a chance.
 

VanDeBank

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I think we have the best record against City funnily enough, the teams are different ofcourse.

Ziyech is awesome, Anthony might be up for it but if not, Berghuis/Neres are there as well. Even Daramy is looking like a freak as of now.

Haller has been an improvement on Dolberg, in general play not compared to Tadic but scores more. Tadic is there.

Alvarez en Gravenberch are a very balanced couple, neither are anywhere near de Jong but it works as well. Who knows if Kudus will find form.

Then Nous is even better in form than he was then and apart from PSV, Timber and Martinez are a fantastic partnership even more comfortable on the ball, and quicker than the partnership then.

I think then Nico, was better than Nico/Blind now and Onana is obviously better.

But then, Ten Hag has had even far more time to work on tactics, to implement his vision. Some of the things we see now are even better than that Ajax 18/19 team, as he is a manager who actually has a vision and knows how to implement it.

You just write Ajax off if that's what you want to be doing, I just think it's baseless.
A lot of words for saying Ajax has a chance of getting to a semi with a good draw and Onana. So you agree with me?

Anyone with 2 working brain cells would write off Ajax winning the CL.
 

anant

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So it does not take into account whether you're playing might Cambuur Leeuwarden or puny Manchester United for instance? If that's the case, I'm again quite surprised they're not nr. 1.

TThat being said they're very good at the moment, but let's not pretend they're Bayern Munich. They had 1 semi tough league game this season which they drew against a fallen FC Twente and 1 tough game in the JC schaal which they lost 4-0 against what now seems to be a shite PSV (who loses 4-0 to Feyenoord at home ffs) The Sporting game was amazing, but my God, Feyenoord was accused of getting cocky after some good results in this thread :lol:
I believe it does take into account all that, and also non-shot xG, the game state - so a goal vs 10 man side would be less valuable than one vs 11 man, 4th goal in 4-0 is less valuable than the 1st in a 2-0 win and so on.

But, right now, there just isn't enough data that goes against Ajax. They're thrashing teams left, right and centre.
 

VanDeBank

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I believe it does take into account all that, and also non-shot xG, the game state - so a goal vs 10 man side would be less valuable than one vs 11 man, 4th goal in 4-0 is less valuable than the 1st in a 2-0 win and so on.

But, right now, there just isn't enough data that goes against Ajax. They're thrashing teams left, right and centre.
They got smashed by PSV, the red card was just the nail in the coffin.

Their start has been exceptional no doubt, but at best they're a tier below the teams that can realistically win the thing.

Sporting was their best opponent. Groningen and Vitesse are quite shit this season. I really don't understand why pointing this out is somehow downplaying them.
 

anant

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They got smashed by PSV, the red card was just the nail in the coffin.

Their start has been exceptional no doubt, but at best they're a tier below the teams that can realistically win the thing.

Sporting was their best opponent. Groningen and Vitesse are quite shit this season. I really don't understand why pointing this out is somehow downplaying them.
Not saying otherwise. All I'm saying is that right now with this low a sample size, the carryover effect from last season and the start of the season has far too much weightage for the 538 model to make sense.

For your reference, PSG are 9th favourites to win CL, so not sure if the model can even make sense this early - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/
 

Terranova

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They got smashed by PSV, the red card was just the nail in the coffin.

Their start has been exceptional no doubt, but at best they're a tier below the teams that can realistically win the thing.

Sporting was their best opponent. Groningen and Vitesse are quite shit this season. I really don't understand why pointing this out is somehow downplaying them.
They got "smashed" while being the better team. The red card made the result seem a lot worse than it was.
And Ajax was still in pre-season. Not all players were back and match fit. PSV however was already competing in the CL qualifiers
 

TMDaines

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Not saying otherwise. All I'm saying is that right now with this low a sample size, the carryover effect from last season and the start of the season has far too much weightage for the 538 model to make sense.

For your reference, PSG are 9th favourites to win CL, so not sure if the model can even make sense this early - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/
Well PSG are slightly odds against qualifying from their group, so that makes complete sense. City are consider near shoe-ins to qualify, the model slightly prefers RB to PSG, and PSG already dropped points against the 4th team in the group. If they get to the last 16, their prospects will improve in the model.
 

therealtboy

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Hahaha, I guess we do have a few cocky fans. Good for you mate, but I'm quite positive Ajax will wipe the floor with us :lol:
I think we'll win but only because I think Ajax will play into our hands. PSV did, at least in the second half. Regardless, I'm just optimistic once again, our inconsistent performers last year are now showing consistency, hopefully we get a CF in January, even on loan as Linssen can't keep this up all season. Reiss Nelson will be a great addition too once he's up to full fitness.
 

anant

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Well PSG are slightly odds against qualifying from their group, so that makes complete sense. City are consider near shoe-ins to qualify, the model slightly prefers RB to PSG, and PSG already dropped points against the 4th team in the group. If they get to the last 16, their prospects will improve in the model.
It's partially true only though. Even if you look at the model from 30th Aug, PSG are the 9th favourites in the competition and their SPI is lower than a fair few number of teams
 

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I have no clue where you inferred that from.

But if only football was so simple as that, United might have managed to win a cheeky Europa League or FA Cup if that was the case.

I think Mazraoui, Tadic, Alvarez have the best chance to be squad players for what it's worth.

I think the whole pattern is that Ajax is capable of performing beyond their pure team quality because of the manager who makes use of the wualities that they do have. Some of these top teams don't at times and that's when or why you have a chance.
In that case I'm just not sure what you're trying to say. On a good day Ajax can beat anyone? I'm sure they can.
 

AjaxCunian

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A lot of words for saying Ajax has a chance of getting to a semi with a good draw and Onana. So you agree with me?

Anyone with 2 working brain cells would write off Ajax winning the CL.
I don't think Ajax need Onana and I think Ajax could go out first round. They will be expected to lose to any opponent in the knockouts.

At the same time, I think Ajax has the quality and manager to hurt every single team in the CL as well when it does come together.
 

AjaxCunian

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In that case I'm just not sure what you're trying to say. On a good day Ajax can beat anyone? I'm sure they can.
Basically, and that the odds being a bit more favourable than;

Ajax having an anomaly; a lucky and very good day and the opponent having the worst possible off day.
 

KirkDuyt

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Basically, and that the odds being a bit more favourable than;

Ajax having an anomaly; a lucky and very good day and the opponent having the worst possible off day.
In that case I agree. I also think that saying Ajax are the underdog against all knock out teams is too pessimistic. Especially in the round of 16, I can see quite a few teams that have less quality then Ajax.
 

TMDaines

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It's partially true only though. Even if you look at the model from 30th Aug, PSG are the 9th favourites in the competition and their SPI is lower than a fair few number of teams
I don't know what you want me to say. They failed to win the French league last year. They aren't all that great, despite the stacked squad.
 

VanDeBank

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They got "smashed" while being the better team. The red card made the result seem a lot worse than it was.
And Ajax was still in pre-season. Not all players were back and match fit. PSV however was already competing in the CL qualifiers
They weren't the better team. Ten Hag saying so doesn't make it true. They got demolished and all the annalists and pundits were unanimous. You're right though that the game isn't representative of Ajax's strength given the circumstances.

I think we'll win but only because I think Ajax will play into our hands. PSV did, at least in the second half. Regardless, I'm just optimistic once again, our inconsistent performers last year are now showing consistency, hopefully we get a CF in January, even on loan as Linssen can't keep this up all season. Reiss Nelson will be a great addition too once he's up to full fitness.
I'd lube up if I were you. PSV struggle to break down a low block, Ajax doesn't have that problem. Slot might come and out play, just like Twente did in their draw.
 

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They weren't the better team. Ten Hag saying so doesn't make it true. They got demolished and all the annalists and pundits were unanimous. You're right though that the game isn't representative of Ajax's strength given the circumstances.


I'd lube up if I were you. PSV struggle to break down a low block, Ajax doesn't have that problem. Slot might come and out play, just like Twente did in their draw.
You probably didn't see the match then? Ajax was the better team despite conceding on counters and even after the red card you barely noticed that Ajax was a man down.
 

VanDeBank

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You probably didn't see the match then? Ajax was the better team despite conceding on counters and even after the red card you barely noticed that Ajax was a man down.
I didn't see the match because I thought you got demolished? What kind of question is that?

You didn't just "concede on the counter", your defense was shit.

PSV was up 2-0 before the red card and made it 4-0 and you're saying Ajax didn't get smashed cause they looked alright conceding another 2 playing with 10 for a half?

Pure delusion. You guys were clearly the lesser team by all metrics, possession in the first half aside. Literally every media outlet and pundit agrees with this. (google anyone of them).

Ten Hag saying otherwise raised everyone's eyebrows. Nonsense managerial talk. Don't be a sheep and blindly follow what your manager says.
 

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I didn't see the match because I thought you got demolished? What kind of question is that?

You didn't just "concede on the counter", your defense was shit.

PSV was up 2-0 before the red card and made it 4-0 and you're saying Ajax didn't get smashed cause they looked alright conceding another 2 playing with 10 for a half?

Pure delusion. You guys were clearly the lesser team by all metrics, possession in the first half aside. Literally every media outlet and pundit agrees with this. (google anyone of them).

Ten Hag saying otherwise raised everyone's eyebrows. Nonsense managerial talk. Don't be a sheep and blindly follow what your manager says.
Defending doesn't count though. Good defending isn't good only good attacking is good. That's why our national team is always applauded even if we never actually win anything. We might not win, but we look really good not doing it.
 

Eendracht maakt macht

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They got "smashed" while being the better team. The red card made the result seem a lot worse than it was.
And Ajax was still in pre-season. Not all players were back and match fit. PSV however was already competing in the CL qualifiers
The better team? All stats point toward PSV being the better team.