Ocon is a merc driver though just given to Renault. I think if Toto is around he'll put him as number 2 to Russell re-creating Hamilton and Bottas.
Ferrari will put Schumacher in the Ferrari with Leclerc unless something majorly goes wrong - Ferrari have already said he'll be in the main car. Wonder what they'll do with Gio.
Gasly is French and has already expressed interest in Renault/Alpine.
That said, anything could happen if Max, Lando, Leclerc, or Russell decide to move from their team - they are the future of F1.