SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[jojojo]

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Ouch. And yes, as regulars in here will guess: I understand why they want to do it. I think it could be a bad idea that won't address the fundamental question of trust in the health services, government and science. Nor does it help people with health issues (physical or psychological) that are affecting their judgment.

I could be wrong of course, maybe the Greek oldies just haven't bothered to get it and this will get them to move on from thinking that it doesn't matter to them, to knowing that it does - I hope so. Maybe they've already tried inducements, education and better access and this is a last resort to be used after a last individualised personal approach - I hope so.

 

[BootsyCollins]

So i found a place via the Scandinavian supportersclub that solved my problem. Booked in for a test at 07.20 saturday morning with test answers at latest 16.00 same day. My kid is buzzin as he though he would miss his first trip to OT.

 

[Wibble]

The replies to that tweet. So much stupid.

We are doomed.

 

[Rooney24]

I’d consider myself a fairly moderate person in all this corona nonsense. Wearing a mask, following the guidelines and all that kind of stuff doesn’t bother me. I’m happy to do it.

but at what point do we stop here? What happens if another variant pops up 3-4 months from now, do we just stop the world again?

especially at the minute there is no evidence that this strain is more dangerous. Just that it is more transmissible.

it’s getting to the point where we just have to take our chances with this thing now. The messages from governments are so inconsistent people like me who were happy enough to comply are starting to lose faith rightly or wrongly.

 

[Pexbo]

I’d consider myself a fairly moderate person in all this corona nonsense. Wearing a mask, following the guidelines and all that kind of stuff doesn’t bother me. I’m happy to do it.

but at what point do we stop here? What happens if another variant pops up 3-4 months from now, do we just stop the world again?

especially at the minute there is no evidence that this strain is more dangerous. Just that it is more transmissible.

it’s getting to the point where we just have to take our chances with this thing now. The messages from governments are so inconsistent people like me who were happy enough to comply are starting to lose faith rightly or wrongly.

Would you not rather we find out if it’s more dangerous before we dismiss it? What if a strain popped up that killed 10% of children that got infected and we took the approach of “let’s wait until we have got the data before we decide to ask people to inconvenience themselves?

 

[Rooney1987]

Sorry if has been ask but what's going on with testing in the US, why is it so low? Still no change over last week still hovering about the 1.3 to 1.5mil per day same number for the last few months.

 

[jojojo]

I’d consider myself a fairly moderate person in all this corona nonsense. Wearing a mask, following the guidelines and all that kind of stuff doesn’t bother me. I’m happy to do it.

but at what point do we stop here? What happens if another variant pops up 3-4 months from now, do we just stop the world again?

especially at the minute there is no evidence that this strain is more dangerous. Just that it is more transmissible.

it’s getting to the point where we just have to take our chances with this thing now. The messages from governments are so inconsistent people like me who were happy enough to comply are starting to lose faith rightly or wrongly.

We will have to live with it. It's fair to say though that we don't know what living with it means yet. I think the UK has already reached the point where we'd declared ourselves willing to live with Delta.

The only things we were were even attempting to do with Delta was keep tabs on it to try and. avoid it actually killing the NHS (as opposed to being so good that the NHS can get back to doing it's normal job). The boosters matter immensely to that campaign - even with Delta there's a risk of sliding back into lockdown if we fail on the booster program.

A big chunk of the rest of Europe aren't ready for that.

Omicron is the Joker in the pack. The UK have budgeted for vaccines and past infection meaning something. If they don't, and severity is similar or worse than Delta, we'll be filling the hospitals, the ICUs and the cemeteries so fast that we won't get to choose whether to live with it. If you can't get medical care for anything, things will get from fast.

My instincts and my hopes say the vaccine + booster will do enough to keep serious illness down. If that's true, this will probably be the last time we take pre-emptive action on what a mutation might mean. Though I am expecting to hear that next year we'll be using variant modified boosters and we may all need them.

 

[Mickeza]

Israel Health Minister earlier said it was looking like vaccines were giving protection and they would release information today - they’ve just announced very early data which I’m assuming is based on SA:

90% protection after two doses within 6 months / booster (I’m assuming this is severe disease/hospitalisation), 30% more transmissible than delta, twice as likely to reinfect than Delta after previous COVID infection - and the kicker - 2.4 times more likely to develop serious symptoms if unvaccinated.

Only article I can find currently is in Hebrew - that’s based on a translation on Reddit! If anyone is able to check the translation:

https://www.mako.co.il/news-lifestyle/2021_q4/Article-0e660b77fe17d71027.htm

 

[Fluctuation0161]

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Ouch. And yes, as regulars in here will guess: I understand why they want to do it. I think it could be a bad idea that won't address the fundamental question of trust in the health services, government and science. Nor does it help people with health issues (physical or psychological) that are affecting their judgment.

I could be wrong of course, maybe the Greek oldies just haven't bothered to get it and this will get them to move on from thinking that it doesn't matter to them, to knowing that it does - I hope so. Maybe they've already tried inducements, education and better access and this is a last resort to be used after a last individualised personal approach - I hope so.

This is effectively mandatory vaccination, wrong on so many levels.

 

[Pexbo]

Israel Health Minister earlier said it was looking like vaccines were giving protection and they would release information today - they’ve just announced very early data which I’m assuming is based on SA:

90% protection after two doses within 6 months / booster (I’m assuming this is severe disease/hospitalisation), 30% more transmissible than delta, twice as likely to reinfect than Delta after previous COVID infection - and the kicker - 2.4 times more likely to develop serious symptoms if unvaccinated.

Only article I can find currently is in Hebrew - that’s based on a translation on Reddit! If anyone is able to check the translation:

https://www.mako.co.il/news-lifestyle/2021_q4/Article-0e660b77fe17d71027.htm

 

[jojojo]

Israel Health Minister earlier said it was looking like vaccines were giving protection and they would release information today - they’ve just announced very early data which I’m assuming is based on SA:

90% protection after two doses within 6 months / booster (I’m assuming this is severe disease/hospitalisation), 30% more transmissible than delta, twice as likely to reinfect than Delta after previous COVID infection - and the kicker - 2.4 times more likely to develop serious symptoms if unvaccinated.

Only article I can find currently is in Hebrew - that’s based on a translation on Reddit! If anyone is able to check the translation:

https://www.mako.co.il/news-lifestyle/2021_q4/Article-0e660b77fe17d71027.htm

It really is way too early to be making too much of the data. It depends on case distribution across age groups. It depends on whether these really are Omicron hospitalisations not another burst of Delta.

Just to give an idea of how a calculation like this gets done, and why it comes with massive disclaimers try this thread:

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Let's hope some of it's true - for the sake of the vaxxed and for keeping some semblance of normality! Let's hope it isn't actually worse than Delta for the unvaxxed, because that's still a big chunk of the world.

 

[Mickeza]

It’s actually even worse than that - according to the article. Fully vaccinated in Israel means 3 doses - so that 90% protection means after 3 doses. I have no clue how they’re calculating that though - the sample size of those in Europe and SA who have both caught Omnicron long enough for serious symptoms to develop and been vaccinated 3 times can’t be anymore than like 3 people…but the fact the entire western world is now obsessing over boosters tells me they must know something so it may stack up:


The information received in Israel about the Omicron - the good and bad news: After Bennett's declaration of a "state of emergency", Israel received preliminary data tonight - both from South Africa and Europe - on the new variant that is causing concern around the world. The data revealed tonight (Tuesday) in the "main edition", shortly after being received in Israel, are preliminary - but indicate that the vaccine is still effective against the newly discovered mutations .

The data were collected in both South Africa and European countries where verifications were found in the new variant. It should be emphasized that these are preliminary data that the whole world is waiting for, and at this point they become the working assumption. According to these data, the effectiveness of the vaccine (for those who received three doses, ie also the booster), decreases only slightly: 90% protection, compared to 95% protection against the Delta strain. These are impressive and somewhat reassuring figures. The effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing serious illness, for those who have been vaccinated three times, is the same as the effectiveness against the Delta strain - the strain that has been the most dominant in Israel so far

But not everything is rosy: the problems start with the risk of recovering being tested. The data show that the risk of recovering from infection is twice as high as in Delta, and the rate of infection is 1.3 times higher than in Delta. This rate of infection is very high: in South Africa there is talk that in 15 days the number of patients has increased 15 times. Although the numbers are low, the rate is problematic and worrying: in Israel there are many Israelis who are not vaccinated.

Another worrying statistic has been revealed regarding the unvaccinated: their risk of becoming seriously ill is 2.4 times that of the original strain of the corona, the one that arrived in Israel nearly two years ago. In "unvaccinated" the reference is also to those vaccinated in two doses who are entitled to a booster and have not yet been vaccinated and therefore their protection is insufficient. Despite this news, the data is a reassuring siren when it comes to protecting vaccinated people from both serious illness and infection

 

[Compton22]

It’s actually even worse than that - according to the article. Fully vaccinated in Israel means 3 doses - so that 90% protection means after 3 doses. I have no clue how they’re calculating that though - the sample size of those in Europe and SA who have both caught Omnicron long enough for serious symptoms to develop and been vaccinated 3 times can’t be anymore than like 3 people…but the fact the entire western world is now obsessing over boosters tells me they must know something so it may stack up:


The information received in Israel about the Omicron - the good and bad news: After Bennett's declaration of a "state of emergency", Israel received preliminary data tonight - both from South Africa and Europe - on the new variant that is causing concern around the world. The data revealed tonight (Tuesday) in the "main edition", shortly after being received in Israel, are preliminary - but indicate that the vaccine is still effective against the newly discovered mutations .

The data were collected in both South Africa and European countries where verifications were found in the new variant. It should be emphasized that these are preliminary data that the whole world is waiting for, and at this point they become the working assumption. According to these data, the effectiveness of the vaccine (for those who received three doses, ie also the booster), decreases only slightly: 90% protection, compared to 95% protection against the Delta strain. These are impressive and somewhat reassuring figures. The effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing serious illness, for those who have been vaccinated three times, is the same as the effectiveness against the Delta strain - the strain that has been the most dominant in Israel so far

But not everything is rosy: the problems start with the risk of recovering being tested. The data show that the risk of recovering from infection is twice as high as in Delta, and the rate of infection is 1.3 times higher than in Delta. This rate of infection is very high: in South Africa there is talk that in 15 days the number of patients has increased 15 times. Although the numbers are low, the rate is problematic and worrying: in Israel there are many Israelis who are not vaccinated.

Another worrying statistic has been revealed regarding the unvaccinated: their risk of becoming seriously ill is 2.4 times that of the original strain of the corona, the one that arrived in Israel nearly two years ago. In "unvaccinated" the reference is also to those vaccinated in two doses who are entitled to a booster and have not yet been vaccinated and therefore their protection is insufficient. Despite this news, the data is a reassuring siren when it comes to protecting vaccinated people from both serious illness and infection

So it's becoming more transmissible AND more deadly for the unvaccinated? This virus just keeps on surprising

And also, unvaccinated in this article refers to those also who have had two doses, rather than the booster

 

[BlueHaze]

Almost 3 years of this and it's only getting worse. I'm certain this will be a part of life permanently now. This shit is never going away.

 

[Port Vale Devil]

Almost 3 years of this and it's only getting worse. I'm certain this will be a part of life permanently now. This shit is never going away.

Nearly 2 years but it does feel like 3

 

[jojojo]

So it's becoming more transmissible AND more deadly for the unvaccinated? This virus just keeps on surprising

Too soon to call. Just not enough yet and some of the stuff that looks like Omicron data may turn out to include Delta and even Alpha. What does seem to be happening is that past infection may not currently be giving as much protection in SA as it did - but that may relate to how long ago they got infected and to things like HIV status - like I say some of the data being cited may not really be about Omicron.

 

[Mickeza]

So it's becoming more transmissible AND more deadly for the unvaccinated? This virus just keeps on surprising

It’s really early data like @jojojo says so hopefully more pathogenic won’t be the case and the vaccine efficacy against severe disease holds up.

 

[stw2022]

At the end of the day even if it is more dangerous for those who are unvaccinated is it right for everyone to rollback into tighter restrictions (discounting face masks that are no real burden) to protect many of those who have refused the offer of vaccination?

 

[jojojo]

At the end of the day even if it is more dangerous for those who are unvaccinated is it right for everyone to rollback into tighter restrictions (discounting face masks that are no real burden) to protect many of those who have refused the offer of vaccination?

It depends. If it started to attack little kids the way it did the old, yep, we'll need restrictions, sometimes even lockdowns to force down case rates while we work out what to do.

If it mostly affects unvaxxed 40 year olds, who thought they were indestructible, there may not be as much sympathy around. Even then though, if it fills up the hospitals, we'll be hard pushed to ignore it.

Even now, in the UK, most hospital admissions are of unvaxxed under 60s. Admission rates in the over 60s are falling as the boosters go out, but boosters are irrelevant if you aren't double vaxxed.

 

[Wibble]

At the end of the day even if it is more dangerous for those who are unvaccinated is it right for everyone to rollback into tighter restrictions (discounting face masks that are no real burden) to protect many of those who have refused the offer of vaccination?

I have little sympathy for the voluntarily unvaccinated but there are children who currently can't be vaccinated, the elderly and those who can't he vaccinated to be considered.

Until the whole world is suitably vaccinated measures to help stop or restrict the spread must stay on the board not matter that they are a minor inconvenience. Major lockdown will likely be rarer in largely vaccinated countries unless we are unlucky with new variants.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

At the end of the day even if it is more dangerous for those who are unvaccinated is it right for everyone to rollback into tighter restrictions (discounting face masks that are no real burden) to protect many of those who have refused the offer of vaccination?

Even if we’re happy to let thousands of unvaccinated people die, the problem is they’ll fill up hospital and ICU beds, which will impact on everyone else. Cancellation of elective hip replacements, knee replacements, spinal surgery etc etc

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Israel Health Minister earlier said it was looking like vaccines were giving protection and they would release information today - they’ve just announced very early data which I’m assuming is based on SA:

90% protection after two doses within 6 months / booster (I’m assuming this is severe disease/hospitalisation), 30% more transmissible than delta, twice as likely to reinfect than Delta after previous COVID infection - and the kicker - 2.4 times more likely to develop serious symptoms if unvaccinated.

Only article I can find currently is in Hebrew - that’s based on a translation on Reddit! If anyone is able to check the translation:

https://www.mako.co.il/news-lifestyle/2021_q4/Article-0e660b77fe17d71027.htm

As per the lengthier quote you posted, that’s 2.4 times more likely to cause serious illness than the OG variant. I actually don’t know how much more deadly delta is than original covid but I’m fairly sure it is. So the jump from delta to omicron will be less than the 2.4 they calculated.

Anyhoo. As @jojojo said, large pinches of salt all round.

 

[Massive Spanner]

Apparently a massive amount of cases in Ireland are 5-12 year olds and 30-45 year olds I.e. their parents.

Who was it who repeatedly said schools weren’t a problem over and over? Can’t remember

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Apparently a massive amount of cases in Ireland are 5-12 year olds and 30-45 year olds I.e. their parents.

Who was it who repeatedly said schools weren’t a problem over and over? Can’t remember

Interesting. Kids have been back in school since September 2020. Any thoughts about why we’re only seeing this pattern now? If you really concentrate hard you’ll work it out for yourself.

 

[Massive Spanner]

Interesting. Kids have been back in school since September 2020. Any thoughts about why we’re only seeing this pattern now? If you really concentrate you’ll work it out for yourself.

I already said that schools in isolation weren’t a big issue but combined with everything else being open they clearly are. You kept peddling the notion that they didn’t make any significant difference under any circumstances.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I already said that schools in isolation weren’t a big issue but combined with everything else being open they clearly are. You kept peddling the notion that they didn’t make any significant difference under any circumstances.

No. No I didn’t. You keep misrepresenting what I say. Which is a dick move tbh.

When U12 year olds are literally the only age group in the country not yet offered a vaccine, we’re dealing with a variant that is more infectious than anything we’ve dealt with before and community transmission is high then obviously kids that age are going to make up significant proportion of the cases nationwide.

Despite this, this current surge didn’t start until well over a month after the schools filled up with kids. Funny that. Almost as though something else significant happened in mid-October…

 

[jojojo]

I already said that schools in isolation weren’t a big issue but combined with everything else being open they clearly are. You kept peddling the notion that they didn’t make any significant difference under any circumstances.

Once a country reopens the case rates rise fast. That gets moderated in the vaxxed and the previously infected, but kids aren't vaxxed and most of them were kept away from infection, so they're easy targets for the virus.

But it's not kids who are superspreaders - it's normal life is one long string of events where the virus is around. Anyone not immune is going to catch it, it's only the timing that we get to choose. We stalled it for the kids, but we aren't doing that now.

 

[Stack]

Completely unrealistic hope but Im praying this new variant ends up being less dangerous and its more infectious traits swamp the other variants and then by next xmas everything is all lovely again.

 

[Traub]

Anecdotally, I personally know a few people who have been re-infected here in SA - they had covid in either May or Dec last year and were double vaxxed in about August Having said that, they’re all mild at this stage (one of those re-infected was in hospital for their first infection).

 

[Garethw]

Completely unrealistic hope but Im praying this new variant ends up being less dangerous and its more infectious traits swamp the other variants and then by next xmas everything is all lovely again.

It’s like living in a bloody nightmare.

 

[Mickeza]

As per the lengthier quote you posted, that’s 2.4 times more likely to cause serious illness than the OG variant. I actually don’t know how much more deadly delta is than original covid but I’m fairly sure it is. So the jump from delta to omicron will be less than the 2.4 they calculated.

Anyhoo. As @jojojo said, large pinches of salt all round.

Yeah - twitter thread below on it. I don’t see how they can possibly know vaccine efficacy after three doses considering hardly anyone in SA has had a booster:

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[Wibble]

Completely unrealistic hope but Im praying this new variant ends up being less dangerous and its more infectious traits swamp the other variants and then by next xmas everything is all lovely again.

Not completely unrealistic. Delta has more or less wiped Beat which I think evaded vaccines more. If we are very lucky it will wipe out Delta but be less severe.

I know we shouldn't post memes in the CE forum but I hope people will forgive me for this one.

 

[Wibble]

A good summary of the state of play with Omicron.

https://www.sciencealert.com/is-omi...aGRsdgYZ0HXd0X36ZCNVH3hdYetjh60FnG2O0NKejuBBM

 

[stw2022]

Even if we’re happy to let thousands of unvaccinated people die, the problem is they’ll fill up hospital and ICU beds, which will impact on everyone else. Cancellation of elective hip replacements, knee replacements, spinal surgery etc etc

I’m not happy to let anyone die but when so many recoil in horror at fines and other punishments for those who refuse vaccinations, why is potentially unlimited restrictions on everyone seen as the lesser of two evils when it’s weighed alongside curbing the freedoms of those who choose not to be vaccinated?

This thread is full of “gosh that is going too far” responses every time a country announces plans to protect their population from the unvaccinated and the unvaccinated from themselves.

 

[Shakesy]

Bar the facts that we shouldn't tempt nature and play god, or whatever, why don't scientists modify the virus and make it highly transmissible, but not severe at all?

 

[Massive Spanner]

No. No I didn’t. You keep misrepresenting what I say. Which is a dick move tbh.

When U12 year olds are literally the only age group in the country not yet offered a vaccine, we’re dealing with a variant that is more infectious than anything we’ve dealt with before and community transmission is high then obviously kids that age are going to make up significant proportion of the cases nationwide.

Despite this, this current surge didn’t start until well over a month after the schools filled up with kids. Funny that. Almost as though something else significant happened in mid-October…

Nightclubs? With the restrictions opposed on them I doubt they could’ve been much worse than the pubs!

anyway I think we should move on from this like adults so if you just admit you were wrong all this time we can both move on and enjoy the next lockdown.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

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So this news has triggered predictably frantic virtue signalling on Twitter about racist policies intended to ‘punish’ South Africa. Is there anything to that?

Is it not likely that there was also some delay in South Africa picking up the extent of the rise of this new variant? i.e. South Africa has always been the epicentre and it started to spread to other countries before the variant was identified and notified to the rest of the world.

Not a criticism of South Africa for the great work in identifying this variant, obviously. I doubt they could have done what they did any quicker.

I guess it’s possible that Omicron is behind the recent massive surge in Europe but that seems very unlikely. It would have surely been picked up much sooner.

 

[11101]

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Ouch. And yes, as regulars in here will guess: I understand why they want to do it. I think it could be a bad idea that won't address the fundamental question of trust in the health services, government and science. Nor does it help people with health issues (physical or psychological) that are affecting their judgment.

I could be wrong of course, maybe the Greek oldies just haven't bothered to get it and this will get them to move on from thinking that it doesn't matter to them, to knowing that it does - I hope so. Maybe they've already tried inducements, education and better access and this is a last resort to be used after a last individualised personal approach - I hope so.

This could become the norm. Either everybody gets vaccinated, or we continually shut the world down whenever a new variant rears its head. A few more lockdowns and people will begin to support that idea.

It's either that, or a variant appears that drowns the others out. So far this pandemic looks an awful lot like Spanish flu, which if that trend continues would have it dying out by mid 2022.

Then:

vs. Now:

 

[Godfather]

Apparently a massive amount of cases in Ireland are 5-12 year olds and 30-45 year olds I.e. their parents.

Who was it who repeatedly said schools weren’t a problem over and over? Can’t remember

Schools are a huge problem here in Austria too.

 

[Shakesy]

This could become the norm. Either everybody gets vaccinated, or we continually shut the world down whenever a new variant rears its head. A few more lockdowns and people will begin to support that idea.

It's either that, or a variant appears that drowns the others out. So far this pandemic looks an awful lot like Spanish flu, which if that trend continues would have it dying out by mid 2022.

Then:

vs. Now:

Why did the Spanish Flu die out again? I think I read it somewhere, but can't remember...