Oh got it, maybe he's in a purple patch. Having a low xG could be due to the fact that the team doesn't produce good chances for him or as you say it could be he's not good at finding himself in those chances.
Dusan Vlahovic / signs for Juventus
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
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Really good point, so what makes those strikers great it's not their clinical finishing but the ability to find themselves on goal situations or create those situations.
It's definitely more sustainable to have players that produce higher xG with being on par with their goals rather than low xG with clinical finishing.
I read from a post from @troylocker that Vlahovic is surpassing his xG by 50%, if Messi is only 20% above his I don't see how Vlahovic can sustain that rate. He'll inevitably drop.
Pretty much. Penalties are bumping up his goal total right now combined with a small sample hot finishing run. That's not to say he isn't a very good prospect... its like with Greenwood. He's an excellent prospect, but sometimes his hot finishing runs make people think he's already a top player. It'll inevitably come down, but with his age, you hope that the underlying stats develop and increase to cushion that drop basically.
Yes, considering that I dont think we should be all over him just yet, lets wait and see how he develops. If rumors are true Fiorentina is asking for 70-80M for him, we've seen brighter youngsters fall completely and top serie A scorers like Immobile, Piatek, etc struggling to score in other leagues. So better play it safe.
Just saw a compilation, I am on board! Great player, perfect for us and the PL
Yep basically that. He's priced as if he's the finished product, like Bellotti was. Bellotti turned out to be a 1-2 season wonder, so Torino probably regrets not selling him when they had the chance.
Serie A teams tend to overprice their players, many end up regretting it. Besides Bellotti that you correctly mentioned I recall Milencovic-Savic and Koulibaly, I'm certain their clubs regret not selling them at the right time.
I think he would be the real deal for us. Watched him several times and despite all the xG talk here in the thread, he brings more
than just goals. Vision, technical ability, Workrate on and off the pitch. He is miles ahead of Piatek, Belotti and even to Ciro in this areas.
Btw: If you really want to compare him in terms of xG, then you should take the xG of all the Topstrikers already mentioned in the thread, but
cut it to their 19-21 yo record, if there is data available. I bet it would differ massivley from what we have today as complete career stat.
However, I also agree, that everything over 70 million is really pricy and a gamble to certain distinct.
But I am pretty sure, that we don't get Haaland, and if City misses out on him too (which can easily happen because Real and PSG will fulfill also every financial demand from Raiola) they will be all over Vlahovic. In fact almost every big Club who misses out on Haaland will push for Vlahovic and because everyone is focused on Haaland right now, we have a real chance of stealing that Fiorentina kid. We should take the chance.
than just goals. Vision, technical ability, Workrate on and off the pitch. He is miles ahead of Piatek, Belotti and even to Ciro in this areas.
Btw: If you really want to compare him in terms of xG, then you should take the xG of all the Topstrikers already mentioned in the thread, but
cut it to their 19-21 yo record, if there is data available. I bet it would differ massivley from what we have today as complete career stat.
However, I also agree, that everything over 70 million is really pricy and a gamble to certain distinct.
But I am pretty sure, that we don't get Haaland, and if City misses out on him too (which can easily happen because Real and PSG will fulfill also every financial demand from Raiola) they will be all over Vlahovic. In fact almost every big Club who misses out on Haaland will push for Vlahovic and because everyone is focused on Haaland right now, we have a real chance of stealing that Fiorentina kid. We should take the chance.
Yep.
Not a coincidence that the players we might think of as being the best strikers of that lot (Ronaldo, Salah, Cavani) occupy roughly the same position and it isn't their finishing overperformance that stands out.
Obviously as with Greenwood you can hope Vlahovic develops in that direction but his underlying stats should give people pause before they decide his goal tally tells the full story.
The comparison with Piatek has no sense imo..
Piatek wasn't even a one-season wonder. He just had 6-7 very good months at 24 y.o. in the 2018/19 season but in the next one he was so awful that we were forced to sell him to a Bundesliga team making a capital loss.
After Pippo Inzaghi all our No.9 have been shit:
2012/13: Alexandre Pato; 2013/14: Matri; 2014/15: Torres and Destro; 2015/16: Luiz Adriano; 2016/17: Lapadula; 2017/18: Andre Silva; 2018/19: Higuain; 2019/20: Piatek; 2020/21: Mandzukic; 2021/22: Giroud (situation pending)
Vlahovic is just a different beast.. he's only 21 y.o. and this is his second great Serie A season. you just need to watch ONE single game to see he has nothing to do with the likes of Piatek, Matri or Destro
Piatek wasn't even a one-season wonder. He just had 6-7 very good months at 24 y.o. in the 2018/19 season but in the next one he was so awful that we were forced to sell him to a Bundesliga team making a capital loss.
After Pippo Inzaghi all our No.9 have been shit:
2012/13: Alexandre Pato; 2013/14: Matri; 2014/15: Torres and Destro; 2015/16: Luiz Adriano; 2016/17: Lapadula; 2017/18: Andre Silva; 2018/19: Higuain; 2019/20: Piatek; 2020/21: Mandzukic; 2021/22: Giroud (situation pending)
Vlahovic is just a different beast.. he's only 21 y.o. and this is his second great Serie A season. you just need to watch ONE single game to see he has nothing to do with the likes of Piatek, Matri or Destro
I never said between xG and goal total. If you are comparing a players non penalty xG to another players playing in a different side. Then the team they play in has significant baring, that is obvious
Well you replied to my comment which was talking about the difference between his xG rate and actual goal rate. Of course a team quality plays some role into the players xG, but generally a top striker will make their mark regardless. I'm bringing up a very valid concern that his xG rate is similar to that of Welbeck/Maupay/Watkins/Fabio Silva. Villa, Wolves and Brighton in the premier league compared to Fiorentina in the Serie A. It's a fair question to ask. A team buying him will look for him to become a top player, because he isn't a top striker yet. You can't expect him to maintain his xG overperformance and you can't expect him to get tons of penalties.
No you also in the same message referenced non penalty xG vs other players playing in different sides
Yes? I don't understand what point you are making. Comparing the xG rate between players is very fair.
I did say ages ago you didnt understand right…. Anyway
Watched the second half of the game today against Salernitana. Cavani vibes.
Yeah I don't know what the feck you're talking about tbh
But keep on doing 1 sentence replies without actually saying anything. If you're trying to say that comparing xG rates between different players isn't possible, then you are very much mistaken...Not watched a lot but from this 
looks a big lad, good in the air and can handle himself, but also got a good touch and some speed ...
(Usual caveat for YouTube videos, watch on mute)
looks a big lad, good in the air and can handle himself, but also got a good touch and some speed ...(Usual caveat for YouTube videos, watch on mute)
much the same as Ivan Toney.Not watched a lot but from this
(Usual caveat for YouTube videos, watch on mute)
Comparing xG rates of different players playing in different teams. You have to consider the chance creation rate of said teams. The striker himself isn't the sole factor so its a flawed comparison. I said this in the first reply.Yeah I don't know what the feck you're talking about tbh
You compared his non penalty xG to other strikers playing in teams that don’t create a lot of chances.
Those graphs are a really nice way to bring this point across properly. Ronaldo is one of the benchmarks of finishers for me, so generally I would consider wherever he is to be the place you would want your players to be.Yep.
Not a coincidence that the players we might think of as being the best strikers of that lot (Ronaldo, Salah, Cavani) occupy roughly the same position and it isn't their finishing overperformance that stands out.
Obviously as with Greenwood you can hope Vlahovic develops in that direction but his underlying stats should give people pause before they decide his goal tally tells the full story.
How is it a flawed comparison? Fiorentina in Serie A vs the strikers from Wolves, Brighton, Villa in the premier league. Similar level teams I'd say compared to the leagues. His numbers are no different. If he was a top striker already, they would be considerably different.
Just go sort a non-penalty xG rate table and see how low Vlahovic lies. It's a concern, because his xG rate is similar to decidedly average strikers. Hell, it's not even the highest within his own team. There's 4 of them at a similar rate, and he's the only true striker in that group.
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Did you check the chance creation rate of Fiorentina also vs other teams. Thats the part you are missing
they should have red flagged the race, do another grid start or rolling start with both on fresh tyres.
So essentially you are trying to look at what share of non penalty xG he has compared to his team?
At a quick check, Fiorentina have a non penalty xG rate in the serie A that would be top half in the prem. So they create more and better chances as a team than Wolves/Villa/Brighton. So you would expect him to have considerably more than they would, being in an easier league, in a more attacking team. As I also mentioned, there are 3 other players in Fiorentina with a similar rate to Vlahovic as well, and they aren't even strikers. It's something he really has to improve as his goal total will inevitably regress as it is not sustainable.
Vlahovic races and uses old tyres?? Do not want!
He reminds me of Ibrahimovic.
Its a different way of looking at it. I watch quite a lot of Fiorentina and when they attack they are very good at overloading players into the opponents box.
Players like Bonaventure, Callejon, Saponara, Sottil, Gonzalez play around Vlahovic as target man and are always getting their shots away, getting into good areas to score while Vlahovic gets heavily marked. Thats the other facet of his game, how well he brings others into play
This is of course a good point, but his npxG is still too low:
- In Serie A npxG is outside the top 20 in the league and outside the top 10 for players in teams that create less npxG/90 than Fiorentina.
- In England his npxG would be outside the top 25 in the league and outside the top 10 for players in teams that create less npxG/90 than Fiorentina in a weaker league.
- In LaLiga his npxG would be outside the top 20 in the league and outside the top 7 for players in teams that create less npxG/90 than Fiorentina in a weaker league.
- In Bundesliga his npxG would be outside the top 25 in the league and outside the top 7 for players in teams that create less npxG/90 than Fiorentina.
- In Ligue 1 npxG would be outside the top 30 in the league and outside the top 10 for players in teams that create less npxG/90 than Fiorentina.
He needs to improve his ability to find himself at the end of more chances to get out of that good,but not great category. His xA (expected assists) is also way too low compared to justify the low npxG.
Let's compare these numbers to the two hottest young attackers out there this season (League numbers alone):
Vlahovic: 0,34 npxG/90 and 0,08 xA/90 (Fiorentina creates 1,23 npxG per game on average)
Vlahovic is involved in 34,1% of Fiorantina's xG/90 when he plays. (Below average for strikers in top 5 leagues)
Mbappe: 0,62 npxG/90 and 0,38 xA/90 (PSG creates 1,88 npxG per game on average)
Mbappe is involved in 53,2% of PSG's xG/90 when he plays.
Haaland: 0,77 npxG/90 and 0,38 xA/90 (Dortmund creates 1,52 npxG per game on average)
Haaland is involved in 75,7% of Dortmund's xG/90 when he plays. (Absolutely insane numbers)
Compared to a player like Josh King:
King: 0,44 npxG/90 and 0,17 xA/90 (Watford creates 1,04 nxpG per game on average)
King is involved in 58,7% of Watford's xG/90 when he plays.
King is a lot more involved in Watfords attacking play than Vlahovic is for Fiorentina. King has 5 PL goals this season while Vlahovic has 15 Serie A goals, inflated by penalties and overperforming his xG by an unsustainable 58% so far this season.
You see these players contribute to a lot more than just scoring goals, and it is extremely unlikely that he will keep overperforming his xG with more than 50% in the long run.
He's obviously a great finisher and one to watch, but it should be clear that you will not get the finished article for the 70+M Fiorentina wants for him.
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This is totally dependant on how the team plays and the setup.
Considering just how much he's carrying them, this is so not good for Fiorentina. Also yeah, those numbers don't scream elite. Wonder if it's a failure of xG or just a matter of Vlahovic going through a king midas patch
"That is no moon"
Wow. Did not realize it, Borussia Dortmund are actually scrub trash bring carried by an alien
Fairly standard stuff for a poor side
Going by such stats, be interesting to see Vlahovic's OBV
For those interested:
Lewandowski: 0,97 npxG/90 and 0,22 xA/90 (Bayern creates 2,88 npxG per game on average)
Lewa is involved in 41,3% of Bayern's xG/90 when he plays.
Ronaldo: 0,60 npxG/90 and 0,13 xA/90 (We create 1,36 npxG per game on average)
Ronaldo is involved in 53,7% of United's xG/90 when he plays.
Salah: 0,65 npxG/90 and 0,36 xA/90 (Liverpool creates 2,56 npxG per game on average)
Salah is involved in 39,5% of Liverpool's xG/90 when he plays.
Benzema: 0,55 npxG/90 and 0,21 xA/90 (Real creates 1,79 npxG per game on average)
Benz is involved in 42,5% of Bayern's xG/90 when he plays.
This is why every top club is after the alien....
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You won't give this one up will ya? You really don't understand how xG works if you think a players ability to find himself at the end of chances is "totally" down to the team, and not the player himself. It is far more down to the player than the team. Just like you can look at the xG rate difference for strikers like Ronaldo/Cavani compared to when we use Martial/Rashford/Greenwood up top.
xG is down to both clearly, I have not said otherwise, which is the point you were missing that I was attempting to point out. In the case of Vlahovic at Fiorentina, a lot of it is down to how they play and how he is used.
He needs to improve his ability to find himself at the end of more chances, this is totally dependant on how he is asked to play and what he is asked of from his manager.
It's not though! Him getting at the end of more chances is down to his ability as a player just as much if not more than team play. No manager tells him not to get on the end of more chances. Its not like you have an elite level from him to go off of outside of Fiorentina. You are literally hoping he'll go somewhere else, be used differently and get a different result from anything he's ever shown in the past. Or that he'll just increase those numbers massively through individual progression.
It's a fair hope, but you aren't buying a finished product which is what he's being priced as because of his goal total. If he wasn't overperforming his xG by such an unsustainable amount and had a normal amount of penalties, nobody would be batting an eye lid towards him. That's the key point at the end of the day. Don't overreach for him because of a hot finishing year which is inevitably going to regress, because there is clear data available that has been proven over time to be incredibly relevant at highlighting this stuff. It's like Kevin Phillips scoring 30 goals in the premier league that time. A one off, and in fact not suddenly some world class striker. I'd bet if xG was around back then it would show a huge overperformance.
Something would be prioritised though, and it seems to be that drawing away defenders and creating space for others is the priority in the system he plays in.
That doesn't mean he can't improve his ability to get more chances, but it's still heavily dependant on how he is asked to play.
Anyway we can just agree to disagree.
The fundamental point it seems we agree on is that getting on the end of more chances is down to both the player and the team play. Which is the reason before I said comparing players that play in teams that setup and play differently, in a purely statistical manner isn't always useful, context is key
Just thought i'd add my 2 cents here but bear in mind i've only watched Fiorentina about 5 or 6 times over the last year so apologies if not too insightful.
Pros:
-Played in a front 2 last season with Ribery and did very well. But Ribery was the creator and Vlahovic made runs in behind so if we brought him in and played him with say Greenwood would 1 need to drop deep and link up play? Although he has done this well this season playing often on his own up top so could work.
-Ice Cold from the penalty spot. Generally high quality finisher as well.
-Currently playing in a high pressing system and semms to be good at it.
-High potential, whilst he is very good now, i think he can get so much better.
-Constantly demands the ball which shows someone who won't shy away from responsibility. He does throw his arms about when he makes a run and does not get the pass for example sometimes. Some might see that as a potential attitude problem but i see it as someone always hungry for the ball.
Cons:
-Price, do i think he's worth the quoted price right now? Potentially no, but your buying someone with high potrential and that always raises the price.
-If we stop playing 2 up top, he's not someone who can really play 10 or out wide. So depending on our long term strategy formation wise and Greenwood as well, he may be someone we might not need.
Pros:
-Played in a front 2 last season with Ribery and did very well. But Ribery was the creator and Vlahovic made runs in behind so if we brought him in and played him with say Greenwood would 1 need to drop deep and link up play? Although he has done this well this season playing often on his own up top so could work.
-Ice Cold from the penalty spot. Generally high quality finisher as well.
-Currently playing in a high pressing system and semms to be good at it.
-High potential, whilst he is very good now, i think he can get so much better.
-Constantly demands the ball which shows someone who won't shy away from responsibility. He does throw his arms about when he makes a run and does not get the pass for example sometimes. Some might see that as a potential attitude problem but i see it as someone always hungry for the ball.
Cons:
-Price, do i think he's worth the quoted price right now? Potentially no, but your buying someone with high potrential and that always raises the price.
-If we stop playing 2 up top, he's not someone who can really play 10 or out wide. So depending on our long term strategy formation wise and Greenwood as well, he may be someone we might not need.
We all agree that he's a good player and an even better finisher, but his goal output is heavily inflated by Fiorentina winning more penalties (5 and him taking all of them) than normal and him outscoring his xG by 58% this season, which is not sustainable in the long run. With sustainable, world class, finishing (outscoring his xG by around 25%) and Fiorentina winning a normal amount of penalties (2 or 3 in 17 games) he would sit on 9 or 10 goals and this season being the penalty taker for his team. His pricetag and international attention would obviously not be the same. If he doesn't improve in the areas mentioned, because he will almost garanteed be considered a flop for the club he goes to if he delivers the same npxG and xA numbers there. I would at least not expect him to hit the ground running if he goes to a top club now...
Other examples of players getting overrated when overperforming and/or getting to take an unnormal amount of penalties:
Ings 19/20 season: Scored 22 PL goals, outscoring his npxG with 49% and fooling a lot of people to think he is better than a 8-12 goals a season striker in the PL. His second best season: 12 goals.
Dybala 17/18 (and partly 15/16): Scored 22 (and 19), outscoring his npxG with 103%!! and taking penalties made him look a lot better than he really was. In 15/16 he scored 6 penalties. Maintained his npxG and xA through the Ronaldo-era, but scored 4, 11 and 5 goals in each of the following seasons and sits on 5 goals this season.
Paco 18/19 season for Dortmund: Scored 18 in 1181 minutes for Dortmund, outscoring his npxP with 79%. Scored 33 league goals in 6222 minutes before that and has scored 15 league goals in 3433 minutes since and pretty much scoring on par with his npxG.
Lacazette 14/15, 15/16 and 16/17 seasons for Lyon: Fooled Arsenal into thinking they bought a gem by scoring 76 league goals in those 3 seasons, scoring 20 penalties (10 penalties in 16/17 alone) and outscoring his npxG with 28%. Arsenal bought a 10-15 goals a season striker for 50M£
Pepe 18/19 season: Scored 22 goals for Lyon, with 9 of them from the penalty spot. Arsenal payed 72M£ for him, he's scored 15 league goals in 2,5 seasons since he arrived, delivering similar npxG and xA as he did in France. Pepe is 3rd in the picking order for penalties in Arsenal....
Our own Martial 19/20 season: Scored 17 and asssited 6 in 19/20 making us think that he might be the answer to our #9 issues. He outscored his npxG with 36% and played to 0,42 npxG/90 and 0,16 xA/90.
Same man the very next season: Scored 4 and assisted 4, making words like sheit, crap etc. trend his Performance-thread. He underperformed his npxG with 46%, but was actually slighty more involved than the last season when he played. His npxG was actually higher than the season before with 0,45 npxG/90 and he his xA was the same (0,16 xA/90).
Over his career he has outscored his npxG with around 15% which actually makes him a very good finisher, but his goalthreat is not very frightening since he doesn't find himself in good scoring positions often enough to make that 20+ goalscorer. With an npxG of under 0,5/90 you will never be a 20+ goals a season striker exept maybe an odd season or two in your career if you are lucky.
Greenwood is another example: Has outscored his npxG in PL with 54% so far in his career. His problem is also that he finds himself in good scoring positions way too seldom with 0,3 npxG/90. 21 PL goals in 77 (4105 minutes) games while outscoring your xG by 54% is unfortunately not sustainable and will probably drop if he doesn't improve his movement and anticipation.
I'm really a man of numbers myself, but I'd say eye test is equally as important for some things as the numbers.
Vlahović and Haaland look to me like the duo that can do all your elite target man of past 20 years could do, with addition of incredible pressing game. He's quite agile too which is big plus with his frame. He can terrorize defences both in the air and on the ground.
I believe his peak is higher than that of Kane. Comparisons with Belotti do him no justice in my opinion, he has much more to his game.
Vlahović and Haaland look to me like the duo that can do all your elite target man of past 20 years could do, with addition of incredible pressing game. He's quite agile too which is big plus with his frame. He can terrorize defences both in the air and on the ground.
I believe his peak is higher than that of Kane. Comparisons with Belotti do him no justice in my opinion, he has much more to his game.
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