Title race/top 4 race

MongeySpangle

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Feb 14, 2021
Messages
248
Supports
Manchester City
1. City/Liverpool - 85-90 points
2. Liverpool/City - 85-90 points
3. Chelsea - 80-85 points
4. United - 70-75 points
5. West Ham - 65-70 points
6. Spurs - 60-65 points
7. Arsenal - 60-65 points
 

ur2cdanger

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Jun 7, 2011
Messages
62
Location
New York
Mark my words. Chelsea are not as great as they are mentioned. We will finish above Chelsea at third.
 

TMDaines

Fun sponge.
Joined
Sep 1, 2014
Messages
13,906
I think people are seriously underestimating West Ham now. The analytics models have United and West Ham very close now in terms of medium-term xG performance. As much as one was at home and the other was away, West Ham got a fully deserved win against Chelsea, whilst we hung on to mug a point.

There’s probably a good argument to be made that for months West Ham have been playing towards their ceiling, whilst United have been near their floor, but them having a 3-point and GD lead will be very handy.

United also have to overturn likely point deficits to Arsenal and Spurs once they have played their games in hand.

Whilst there have been positive signs, our performances under Carrick and Rangnick so far haven’t seen us blow any teams away, and we will drop plenty of points in games if can only deliver what we did against Arsenal and Palace.

I don’t think United finish top 4 in the league more than 40% of the time from here. That’s roughly what you get if you give United a 75% chance to finish above each of West Ham, Arsenal and Spurs independently.
 

bosnian_red

Worst scout to ever exist
Joined
Aug 13, 2011
Messages
57,577
Location
Canada
I think people are seriously underestimating West Ham now. The analytics models have United and West Ham very close now in terms of medium-term xG performance. As much as one was at home and the other was away, West Ham got a fully deserved win against Chelsea, whilst we hung on to mug a point.

There’s probably a good argument to be made that for months West Ham have been playing towards their ceiling, whilst United have been near their floor, but them having a 3-point and GD lead will be very handy.

United also have to overturn likely point deficits to Arsenal and Spurs once they have played their games in hand.

Whilst there have been positive signs, our performances under Carrick and Rangnick so far haven’t seen us blow any teams away, and we will drop plenty of points in games if can only deliver what we did against Arsenal and Palace.

I don’t think United finish top 4 in the league more than 40% of the time from here. That’s roughly what you get if you give United a 75% chance to finish above each of West Ham, Arsenal and Spurs independently.
West Ham will likely drop off with increasing fixture build up. As you said, they've played to their ceiling while we've played to our floor, and they have 3 points and +8 GD on us. If we match their results for the rest of the season except beat them at Old Trafford, we'll be level on points with them. Don't think it's much of a stretch to expect us to better their rest of season record, even if they've been good. The Christmas period is always a big one.

Arsenal and Spurs as well really haven't impressed yet. XPts wise for the season so far there is nothing to split United, Spurs and Arsenal, while United and Spurs actually have good coaches now so I think it's safe to assume Arsenal with Arteta will drop off. And then the great squad quality of United vs Spurs. We've been absolutely woeful with respect to our squad quality, and I expect to see a sharp turn around in results over the coming months. I don't see Arsenal, Spurs or West Ham with the capability to go on a huge run, while we absolutely have that, and I think we'll see it now. Our fixtures until the end of February:
  • Norwich (a)
  • Brentford (a)
  • Brighton (h)
  • Newcastle (a)
  • Burnley (h)
  • Wolves (h)
  • Villa (a)
  • West Ham (h)
  • Burnley (a)
  • Southampton (h)
  • Leeds (a)
  • Watford (h)
That's 12 games where we have to be the overwhelming favourites for each. Add Palace who we just beat and that's the 3 newly promoted sides, and the entire bottom half of the league last season apart from West Ham, and Leeds last year being 9th. That's a huge opportunity to both claw back the gap and open one of our own, as well as gain some confidence in our play heading into the business end of the season.
 

Reapersoul20

Can Anderson score? No.
Joined
Aug 13, 2006
Messages
12,076
Location
Jog on
Liverpool have the look of a title-winning side this year. If that hell does become a reality, hopefully Klopp will use it as an excuse to feck off somewhere else.
 

SouthernRedDev

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Aug 30, 2021
Messages
104
Id be supprised if we make 70 points, i think 65 is more likely, so possibly a very close 4th/5th.
 

InfiniteBoredom

Full Member
Joined
Jun 10, 2013
Messages
13,547
Location
Melbourne
Id be supprised if we make 70 points, i think 65 is more likely, so possibly a very close 4th/5th.
We are on 24 now, 65 means 41 pts/23 games, that’s under 2 ppg which is extremely poor for a squad of Utd quality, we got that last season with Ole ball.

I expect 2.1-2.2 which will give us a total around 72-75 pts.
 

Andycoleno9

matchday malcontent
Joined
Mar 4, 2017
Messages
28,576
Location
Croatia
Ok, i am worried now. Yes, it is half of season but we are point less than Spurs and we have two games more than them. Plus we are dropping a lot of points in "easy" run of games. Not looking good.
 

Judas

Open to offers
Joined
Jun 28, 2010
Messages
35,964
Location
Where the grass is greener.
The glimmer of hope is the battle 4 is always played out by inconsistent teams who are incapable of going on long winning runs and whose form is always all over the place. While that's still the case we're more than in with a chance. But we really do look like winning games is such a monumental effort right now that its going to be tough.
 

JebelSherif

New Member
Joined
May 31, 2021
Messages
502
Supports
Huddersfield Town
The glimmer of hope is the battle 4 is always played out by inconsistent teams who are incapable of going on long winning runs and whose form is always all over the place. While that's still the case we're more than in with a chance. But we really do look like winning games is such a monumental effort right now that its going to be tough.
This is true, but it is not looking good. Normally Utd. might be fighting one or two teams for the 4th slot (or third) but this season there are about 6 teams on or around the same points as Utd. and some of those can be said to have had their season blip already e.g. Leicester and Arsenal & so may be pretty consistent in the 2nd half of the campaign. We can't expect all of the following to mess up: Leicester, Wolves, Spurs, Arsenal and West Ham. Utd. need to put together a run of victories in February/March, I think.

P.S. it is going to be complicated by the fact until the very end there will be teams with 'games-in-hand' due to covid - this will just increase the pressure, especially on those teams playing 'catch-up'.
 

croadyman

Full Member
Joined
Mar 9, 2018
Messages
34,327
The glimmer of hope is the battle 4 is always played out by inconsistent teams who are incapable of going on long winning runs and whose form is always all over the place. While that's still the case we're more than in with a chance. But we really do look like winning games is such a monumental effort right now that its going to be tough.
West Ham have to either lose or draw today and then gotta beat both Brentford & them next week to fully punish it
 

Andycoleno9

matchday malcontent
Joined
Mar 4, 2017
Messages
28,576
Location
Croatia
West Ham have to either lose or draw today and then gotta beat both Brentford & them next week to fully punish it
WH will not manage to keep up. Our biggest problem is Tottenham. And potential 7 point gap between us and them is very bad thing at this point
 

Lecland07

Full Member
Joined
Oct 23, 2021
Messages
2,835
On course for 61 points, at the moment.

It is mad that if West Ham win today, they will be 8 points clear of us in fourth. Tottenham could pull 7 away with 2 games in hand.

I think it will be very hard for us now to get top four with that many teams in the mix. Fortunately, Brighton don't have a consistent goal scorer or they would be in the mix also.
 

Chief123

Full Member
Joined
Dec 27, 2013
Messages
12,789
We would need close to title winning form from here on in to make top 4. Looking at our remaining fixtures, absolutely no chance.
 

croadyman

Full Member
Joined
Mar 9, 2018
Messages
34,327
WH will not manage to keep up. Our biggest problem is Tottenham. And potential 7 point gap between us and them is very bad thing at this point
I wouldn't be so sure of them falling away, agree that Spurs games in hand are a concern though. Still need to play that Burnley game along with Arsenal and Leicester on Wednesday.
 

thegregster

Harbinger of new information
Joined
Nov 4, 2009
Messages
13,446
I expect Arsenal,Spurs and probably 2 out of West Ham,Wolves, Leicester to finish ahead of us.

So around 8th.

The only chance of making top 4 is signing 1-2 CMs who hit the ground running like Bruno did.
 

redshaw

Full Member
Joined
Jul 17, 2015
Messages
9,586
Hope Spurs can get their games in hand out the way soon just to see how the table looks.

United still have a chance of top 4, it's normally team after team gifting the chance away to secure it, I'm sure they'll be many twists and collapses but we have to start picking up points soon, we've dropped 7 out of 9 against Newcastle, Wolves and Villa.

I wouldn't want to put a bet on any of these teams making it. There's quite a drop off from the top 3.
 

croadyman

Full Member
Joined
Mar 9, 2018
Messages
34,327
I expect Arsenal,Spurs and probably 2 out of West Ham,Wolves, Leicester to finish ahead of us.

So around 8th.

The only chance of making top 4 is signing 1-2 CMs who hit the ground running like Bruno did.
Yeah that's if our board allow it
 

Water Melon

Guest
If we do not buy anyone this month, we are not getting into top 4. We have already dropped a few points against lesser teams. I am scared to think about where we are in the table after the upcoming brutal 4-5 weeks.
 

allen7

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Apr 11, 2015
Messages
597
Regardless of the midfield situation,
If bruno gets his last season form, things could change. Yesterday out of no where he scored 2 so anything can happen.

Luckily we have an inform DDG so just need one attacker to get us to top 4. Of late we are creating more chances which we aren’t converting to goals. Yesterday remember greenwood got 2 really good chances, elanga got 1 chance but couldn’t punish Villa. If we put pressure on teams with early goals like 2 or more at half time, ralf can make more us defensive shaped for remaining time.

I believe its not impossible and still achievable.
 

sunama

Baghdad Bob
Joined
Apr 26, 2014
Messages
16,830
I expect Arsenal,Spurs and probably 2 out of West Ham,Wolves, Leicester to finish ahead of us.

So around 8th.

The only chance of making top 4 is signing 1-2 CMs who hit the ground running like Bruno did.
I doubt we will sign any CMs....let alone buying them AND they hit the ground running.
 

Ayoba

Poster of Noncense.
Joined
Feb 2, 2021
Messages
8,258
I expect Arsenal,Spurs and probably 2 out of West Ham,Wolves, Leicester to finish ahead of us.

So around 8th.

The only chance of making top 4 is signing 1-2 CMs who hit the ground running like Bruno did.
Finally some positive news this rotten season! It means we avoid the conference League
 

Zlaatan

Parody Account
Joined
Oct 24, 2013
Messages
3,771
Location
Sweden
I don't see how we can get it done without something major happening within the team, we're in absolute shambles right now both on and off the pitch with DDG being the only player who can hold his head high. If anything we seem to just be getting worse the longer the season goes making teams fighting for relegation looking like they belong in the top 6. We lack both quality and fight at the moment and I'd be hesitant for us to beat just one of Spurs, West Ham, Arsenal and Wolves for 4th place, now we have to top all of them and that feels like asking way too much of this team.
 

Andycoleno9

matchday malcontent
Joined
Mar 4, 2017
Messages
28,576
Location
Croatia
At this point, it looks that we have more chance to catch Chelsea than Spurs. Who would know that Conte will lift Spurs this much in short period and that Chelsea will lose so much points in that same period
 

Josh 76

Full Member
Joined
Mar 14, 2018
Messages
5,565
Title race back on.

City V Liverpool in April will be interesting.
 

charlenefan

Far less insightful than the other Charley
Joined
Aug 17, 2005
Messages
33,052
I fecking hate we're in a top 4 fight again. Arsenal and Spurs still have it in their own hands
 

cabbs1989

New Member
Newbie
Joined
May 15, 2021
Messages
92
We look much balanced & organised, we will find the right blend eventually and ralf understands not to hold grudges & learns from mistakes, Chelsea spurs should be a draw today & let’s be honest lads it’s Tottenham so I feel we will be okay, could even go for third, positive stuff for united