Under Ole the various xG stats pointed towards underlying problems that would eventually bite us on the arse (sure enough, that’s exactly what happened).
How are things looking under Ralf?
How are things looking under Ralf?
xG under Ralf
- Thread starter Pogue Mahone
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
Ronaldo scoring a 0.98 goal might help it look better than it is.
Isn't that a bit like saying Man City are top of the league but only because they have won more games and lost fewer than the rest of the league?
This is how things were post GW12 with Ole sacked:
And this is now (sorted per 90 as postponements mean different teams have played different numbers of games):
And this is now (sorted per 90 as postponements mean different teams have played different numbers of games):
Sooooooo…. still a bit shit?This is how things were post GW12 with Ole sacked:
And this is now (sorted per 90 as postponements mean different teams have played different numbers of games):
A bit. Hopefully we keep improving.
Don't like how much Arsenal and Spurs have improved in that time either.
United finished 3rd and 2nd. I'm not sure you can just wait indefinitely until the model matches reality and then say "ah it was right all along."
I don't think our xG is better now. We created even less quality chance now.
Alright, so I decide to take a look at our xG and xGA. This is what we get:
vs Palace:
xG: 1.1
Actual goal: 1
xGA: 0.9
Actual goal conceded: 0
vs Norwich:
xG: 1.9
Actual goal: 1
xGA: 0.9
Actual goal conceded: 0
vs Newcastle:
xG: 1.2
Actual goal: 1
xGA: 1.1
Actual goal conceded: 1
vs Burnley:
xG: 2.1
Actual goal: 3
xGA: 0.8
Actual goal conceded: 1
vs Wolves:
xG: 0.8
Actual goal: 0
xGA: 0.7
Actual goal conceded: 1
The only games we looked like we could score 2 goals or more were vs Norwich and Burnley. And if we consider the xGA then it makes it even worse since it looks like majority games could end as 1-1 given that our opposition had 0.7 or above xG against us. Almost like LVG's 2nd season where we could only score 1 goal per game. We need a massive improvement in this area. We need to play more creative and intelligent players and less natural goal scorer to improve our xG.
vs Palace:
xG: 1.1
Actual goal: 1
xGA: 0.9
Actual goal conceded: 0
vs Norwich:
xG: 1.9
Actual goal: 1
xGA: 0.9
Actual goal conceded: 0
vs Newcastle:
xG: 1.2
Actual goal: 1
xGA: 1.1
Actual goal conceded: 1
vs Burnley:
xG: 2.1
Actual goal: 3
xGA: 0.8
Actual goal conceded: 1
vs Wolves:
xG: 0.8
Actual goal: 0
xGA: 0.7
Actual goal conceded: 1
The only games we looked like we could score 2 goals or more were vs Norwich and Burnley. And if we consider the xGA then it makes it even worse since it looks like majority games could end as 1-1 given that our opposition had 0.7 or above xG against us. Almost like LVG's 2nd season where we could only score 1 goal per game. We need a massive improvement in this area. We need to play more creative and intelligent players and less natural goal scorer to improve our xG.
It's shit. We've xGA on average at the level of 0,95 against teams like Wolves, Burnley, Newcastle, Norwich and Cystal Palace.
xG on avarage against those is 1,3 so we're sliding and the PPT we got so far is pretty good concerning the xG/xGA parameters.
I wouldn't put any money on us winning next games that's for sure.
xG on avarage against those is 1,3 so we're sliding and the PPT we got so far is pretty good concerning the xG/xGA parameters.
I wouldn't put any money on us winning next games that's for sure.
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As a neutral you seem to have really lost the art of scoring a basic team goal through thirds of the pitch consistantly against reasonable opposition.
Start of season you scored some nice team goals v Leeds but that was obviously illusion. Think Everton at home that Martial curled in was another example.
I've watched you for 180 minutes this week and really bar the goals we gifted you the main other chances you created were us parking the defence 40 yards up and you just ran into the vacant space e.g. Cavani chance in the cup and also second half when Greenwood hit it straight and Rashford didn't bother with rebound. Tonight Greenwood hit one just wide of the post in a similar move.
For all being better first 30 minutes don't recall too many shots compared to our good spell for most of second half.
Seems a real lack of co-ordination in final third considering some of the names you have up there. Midfield is poor but ball can still get up to the forwards but they can't seem to play effective 1-2s or passing triangles at all compared to Man. City doing it with ease every game.
Last few weeks you've created very little from open play v Wolves, Norwich and Newcastle and a few things here and there in the two games this week and none of these four opponents are even top 6 so Rangnick not solving much in his brief tenure bar launching top level career of Elanga.
A Tielemans type would certainly help for final third so that's a player you need to be seriously targeting in near future.
Long post just to say no idea how that relates to xG anyway as couldn't care less about that being used as football stats metric.
Start of season you scored some nice team goals v Leeds but that was obviously illusion. Think Everton at home that Martial curled in was another example.
I've watched you for 180 minutes this week and really bar the goals we gifted you the main other chances you created were us parking the defence 40 yards up and you just ran into the vacant space e.g. Cavani chance in the cup and also second half when Greenwood hit it straight and Rashford didn't bother with rebound. Tonight Greenwood hit one just wide of the post in a similar move.
For all being better first 30 minutes don't recall too many shots compared to our good spell for most of second half.
Seems a real lack of co-ordination in final third considering some of the names you have up there. Midfield is poor but ball can still get up to the forwards but they can't seem to play effective 1-2s or passing triangles at all compared to Man. City doing it with ease every game.
Last few weeks you've created very little from open play v Wolves, Norwich and Newcastle and a few things here and there in the two games this week and none of these four opponents are even top 6 so Rangnick not solving much in his brief tenure bar launching top level career of Elanga.
A Tielemans type would certainly help for final third so that's a player you need to be seriously targeting in near future.
Long post just to say no idea how that relates to xG anyway as couldn't care less about that being used as football stats metric.
Great post. I would only add that there’s no real team spirit within the squad. No joy, it’s just a job and whatever happens, hey, it’s just another day at the office. We can only speculate, but the sense that it’s just about enriching themselves comes from the top…the Glazers.As a neutral you seem to have really lost the art of scoring a basic team goal through thirds of the pitch consistantly against reasonable opposition.
Start of season you scored some nice team goals v Leeds but that was obviously illusion. Think Everton at home that Martial curled in was another example.
I've watched you for 180 minutes this week and really bar the goals we gifted you the main other chances you created were us parking the defence 40 yards up and you just ran into the vacant space e.g. Cavani chance in the cup and also second half when Greenwood hit it straight and Rashford didn't bother with rebound. Tonight Greenwood hit one just wide of the post in a similar move.
For all being better first 30 minutes don't recall too many shots compared to our good spell for most of second half.
Seems a real lack of co-ordination in final third considering some of the names you have up there. Midfield is poor but ball can still get up to the forwards but they can't seem to play effective 1-2s or passing triangles at all compared to Man. City doing it with ease every game.
Last few weeks you've created very little from open play v Wolves, Norwich and Newcastle and a few things here and there in the two games this week and none of these four opponents are even top 6 so Rangnick not solving much in his brief tenure bar launching top level career of Elanga.
A Tielemans type would certainly help for final third so that's a player you need to be seriously targeting in near future.
Long post just to say no idea how that relates to xG anyway as couldn't care less about that being used as football stats metric.
Tbh watching highlights again I was a bit harsh, were some decent moves in first half rather than just breaking our high line all the time.
Does this mean we lost?
To be fair their keeper gave us a big hand with the xG for the first one!
Why would the xG of the shot increase because of a keeper error?To be fair their keeper gave us a big hand with the xG for the first one!
It wouldn't - it helped us outperform our xG!
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So we lost
No.So we lost
First time venturing near xG. What an overrated metric
XG I think is a useful metric but I find our possession and control improving a lot. The XG is down to one or two big errors in a game that we need to iron out.
Our general play feels like its getting there though. The flat 3 in the middle works.
Our general play feels like its getting there though. The flat 3 in the middle works.
You are missing the point.
No way. We hit them on the counter. I thought we controlled the second half in important moments but were really really poor in the first and deserved to be behind.
Controlling matches. What’s that ?
Not surprising. We gave up a lot of chances. They had some great chances in the first half and another couple from counters in the second. We should have been way behind before we scored.
1.98 from an un challenged header from 7 yards out a tap into an open net and a clear one on one with the goalkeeper ?
What even is this stat ?
What even is this stat ?
Yeah, tonight’s game is a great example of how xG in isolation tells you very little. They had some great chances in the first half but we had much more possession and were in control for most of it.
They should have scored 3 goals today with easy chances.
We were much better in the 2nd half and got away with it.
We were much better in the 2nd half and got away with it.
We were giving up a lot of decent chances in the first half and the last few mins of the game. It is no surprised xG turned out this way even if I thought it was harsh on us.
I get that, I don't understand how you quantify Rashford and Elanga's chances as less than 50% each though, Surely Greenwood's was 1.00 ?
.75 at most, ive seen people miss those
People always overrate the quality of chances.
Yeah down the Dog&Duck on a Sunday morning after 10 Jagerbombs the night before.
Yes, but an open net from 12 yards ?
The XG at half-time was 1.5 - 0.2 (Understat). Which is pretty much exactly how it looked to me - we had all the ball and did nothing with it, while they did enough to have scored at least once. The opposite of us being in control, if anything.
For what it's worth, Understat has the overall score as 2.08-2.06 to them, which I find plausible on face value - but their actual goal has an XG value of 0.12, which is a bit confuzzling. It should be wayyy higher, surely.
Yet we had 68% of the ball. Which is very close to the definition of being in control.