Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

NicolaSacco

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I always find these things frustratingly long- it seems like months ago we were talking this scenario. Though I guess they have to find workable and immediate alternatives which is a complex task.

I have to say, throughout this conflict it’s been the Eastern European countries (like Estonia, Slovakia, Poland and Romania to name the first that come primarily to mind) that have impressed me the most with their bravery in standing up to Putin. It’s relatively easy if you’re Boris, Macron or Biden, you know that there’s no real risk of a sustained attack. Poland borders Belarus, Slovakia borders Ukraine, and both have ethnic Russians within their populations. If Putin is hellbent (and I don’t THINK he is) of pushing as far west as he can then they could be next. It’s brave conduct, no doubt.
Although the alternative view is that by the systematic degradation of Russian fighting potential in Ukraine, they are insulating themselves from any future possibility of an attack.
 

Frosty

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I always find these things frustratingly long- it seems like months ago we were talking this scenario. Though I guess they have to find workable and immediate alternatives which is a complex task.

I have to say, throughout this conflict it’s been the Eastern European countries (like Estonia, Slovakia, Poland and Romania to name the first that come primarily to mind) that have impressed me the most with their bravery in standing up to Putin. It’s relatively easy if you’re Boris, Macron or Biden, you know that there’s no real risk of a sustained attack. Poland borders Belarus, Slovakia borders Ukraine, and both have ethnic Russians within their populations. If Putin is hellbent (and I don’t THINK he is) of pushing as far west as he can then they could be next. It’s brave conduct, no doubt.
Although the alternative view is that by the systematic degradation of Russian fighting potential in Ukraine, they are insulating themselves from any future possibility of an attack.
I think he is hellbent on all sorts of asymmetrical warfare including blackmailing countries through cutting off energy. In that context it is very brave.
 

Simbo

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I always find these things frustratingly long- it seems like months ago we were talking this scenario. Though I guess they have to find workable and immediate alternatives which is a complex task.

I have to say, throughout this conflict it’s been the Eastern European countries (like Estonia, Slovakia, Poland and Romania to name the first that come primarily to mind) that have impressed me the most with their bravery in standing up to Putin. It’s relatively easy if you’re Boris, Macron or Biden, you know that there’s no real risk of a sustained attack. Poland borders Belarus, Slovakia borders Ukraine, and both have ethnic Russians within their populations. If Putin is hellbent (and I don’t THINK he is) of pushing as far west as he can then they could be next. It’s brave conduct, no doubt.
Although the alternative view is that by the systematic degradation of Russian fighting potential in Ukraine, they are insulating themselves from any future possibility of an attack.
Yeh this has been in the works for a while now, I guess it has been more complicated than we know to agree and arrange the substitute security cover from Poland/Czech. Perhaps they've had to appease some objections from the US too.

Agree about the eastern euro countries. If ever a situation arises where NATO intervenes, I expect it will be after Poland has already gone in of their own accord.
 

NicolaSacco

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Yeh this has been in the works for a while now, I guess it has been more complicated than we know to agree and arrange the substitute security cover from Poland/Czech. Perhaps they've had to appease some objections from the US too.

Agree about the eastern euro countries. If ever a situation arises where NATO intervenes, I expect it will be after Poland has already gone in of their own accord.
Would be interesting to know whether the internal Russia calculus has changed with regard to specifically Poland. Notwithstanding the nato membership which is clearly critical, Polands military budget is approximately triple Ukraine’s (pre-war) budget. If Russia can’t subjugate Ukraine then it’s very unlikely they could do so against a more modern military.
 

alexthelion

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Could you explain then what you were saying yes to in post 34,206?

Edit; Ah I see you only considered "orcs" to be soldiers, but it's fairly unclear when the post you were responding to was about future civilian casualties.
I highlighted the bit about orcs, I didn't mention civilians at all.

It was just a poster hoping I'd done what they said, not what I'd actually done.
 

Simbo

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Gotta note the accuracy again, they continue to hit the exact same spot of the bridge.

 

harms

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It probably requires a separate thread and I think if it continues I'll make one as it's certainly a consequence of the invasion but not something that is directly connected to it. But since we've been discussing it here — this is the next step after denying Russians schengen visas, a move that was supposed to target pro-Putin tourists and punish them for their views.

Lithuanian's foreign minister in his interview to Deutsche Welle says that it's important to deny those Russians who oppose Putin entry to European countries to keep that 5-10% (his estimation) of population inside the country to instigate the regime change.

edit: even I seem to get under the influence of questionable quotations and watching the interview closely he hasn't said this phrase directly. Yet he did said that the humanitarian visa system that they've implicated works well and compensates for the tourist visa ban (it doesn't) and that his preference is to keep them in Russia.
 
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maniak

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It probably requires a separate thread and I think if it continues I'll make one as it's certainly a consequence of the invasion but not something that is directly connected to it. But since we've been discussing it here — this is the next step after denying Russians schengen visas, a move that was supposed to target pro-Putin tourists and punish them for their views.

Lithuanian's foreign minister in his interview to Deutsche Welle says that it's important to deny those Russians who oppose Putin entry to European countries to keep that 5-10% (his estimation) of population inside the country to instigate the regime change.
That's a very cruel suggestion. If people live oppressed and want a better live they should be allowed to move.
 

Paxi

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It probably requires a separate thread and I think if it continues I'll make one as it's certainly a consequence of the invasion but not something that is directly connected to it. But since we've been discussing it here — this is the next step after denying Russians schengen visas, a move that was supposed to target pro-Putin tourists and punish them for their views.

Lithuanian's foreign minister in his interview to Deutsche Welle says that it's important to deny those Russians who oppose Putin entry to European countries to keep that 5-10% (his estimation) of population inside the country to instigate the regime change.
And what are your views on this?
 

harms

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And what are your views on this?
I've said this already, the visa thing doesn't bring us closer to ending the war (if anything, it'll probably end up doing the opposite, at least in terms of Putin's internal support). It's the same right-wing ideas that have been on the rise over the past decade (probably culminating with Trump) finding a great way to materialise into existence. That said, the trigger is still the Russian invasion, obviously, and the very fact of its existing gives a lot of ammunition to right-wing politician in Europe. But this doesn't mean that it's a good thing.
 

Paxi

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That's a very cruel suggestion. If people live oppressed and want a better live they should be allowed to move.
Yeah it’s absolutely ridiculous suggestion. There should as much separation between politics and actual people.

The whole idea that Russians should be punished is exactly what makes Russia more united. Carnegie University in Moscow is already pretty much incensed with what the collective west is doing.

If you cut Russians from Europe, Russians will take it by force.

This is a very bizarre situation where non entities can blocked transportation routes.
 

maniak

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Yeah it’s absolutely ridiculous suggestion. There should as much separation between politics and actual people.

The whole idea that Russians should be punished is exactly what makes Russia more united. Carnegie University in Moscow is already pretty much incensed with what the collective west is doing.

If you cut Russians from Europe, Russians will take it by force.

This is a very bizarre situation where non entities can blocked transportation routes.
Let me be clear, those who support the regime should definitely be stopped from enjoying the west or use it for personal gain. I was referring to people who oppose putin and want to leave because of that.
 

Paxi

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I've said this already, the visa thing doesn't bring us closer to ending the war (if anything, it'll probably end up doing the opposite, at least in terms of Putin's internal support). It's the same right-wing ideas that have been on the rise over the past decade (probably culminating with Trump) finding a great way to materialise into existence. That said, the trigger is still the Russian invasion, obviously, and the very fact of its existing gives a lot of ammunition to right-wing politician in Europe. But this doesn't mean that it's a good thing.
As eloquent as you are you did not answer the question. I’ll answer it for you. Restrictions on UN travel charter is violation on human right. To be more precise - to have a right to a private life - which entails freedom of movement. The fact that anyone is considering this - this is enough to start a war. It’s absolutely wrong. Reprehensible.

Just an afterthought; all those Russians, in Russia or outside?
 

cyberman

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Yeah it’s absolutely ridiculous suggestion. There should as much separation between politics and actual people.

The whole idea that Russians should be punished is exactly what makes Russia more united. Carnegie University in Moscow is already pretty much incensed with what the collective west is doing.

If you cut Russians from Europe, Russians will take it by force.

This is a very bizarre situation where non entities can blocked transportation routes.
I mean, does it necessarily matter what Russians think of Europe right now or if they’re united or not?
 

Paxi

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Let me be clear, those who support the regime should definitely be stopped from enjoying the west or use it for personal gain. I was referring to people who oppose putin and want to leave because of that.
I love the words regime. It’s crazy word that would be used. The actual truth in Russia (outside Moscow, ST, Petes) - a lot of people are like — were good. Russians aren’t at that place politically where we can just go for it. I know that you may want to impose that but it’s just not the way.
 

Chief123

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I stopped following the Ukraine situation about 2 weeks after it started.

Can someone explain how this is going on for so long? I remember the reports in the first couple of weeks saying how Russian army should be into Kiev within “hours”. It’s been 7 months now, what has actually been happening? Apologies for my ignorance on the matter.
 

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Yeah it’s absolutely ridiculous suggestion. There should as much separation between politics and actual people.

The whole idea that Russians should be punished is exactly what makes Russia more united. Carnegie University in Moscow is already pretty much incensed with what the collective west is doing.

If you cut Russians from Europe, Russians will take it by force.

This is a very bizarre situation where non entities can blocked transportation routes.
What does this even mean ? They're barely staying afloat against a nation with 1/10th Russia's defense budget, so Europe probably wouldn't be concerned after Putin has castrated half his military by sending them to die in a war he hasn't gained anything by.
 

Paxi

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I mean, does it necessarily matter what Russians think of Europe right now or if they’re united or not?
or that Russians are in fact part of Europe. Just like French, English, German— you absolutely have no say in it.
 

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I love the words regime. It’s crazy word that would be used. The actual truth in Russia (outside Moscow, ST, Petes) - a lot of people are like — were good. Russians aren’t at that place politically where we can just go for it. I know that you may want to impose that but it’s just not the way.
It's the correct word to use, regardless of how you feel about it.

I'm not making judgements if they're good people or not, even though I tend to think if you support killing people in another country you're generally not a good person. I'm saying that if you support putin's regime, you should not be allowed to travel in the west freely enjoying it's freedoms, working, traveling, etc.

If you are a russian who opposes the regime, the west should welcome you. Forcing them to stay in russia is punishing an innocent.
 

maniak

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or that Russians are in fact part of Europe. Just like French, English, German— you absolutely have no say in it.
It's absolutely astonishing reading this kinda stuff when russia is literally doing to ukraine what you consider to be totally outrageous if someone tried doing the same to russia.

Can you honestly not see the blatant hypocrisy?
 

harms

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As eloquent as you are you did not answer the question. I’ll answer it for you. Restrictions on UN travel charter is violation on human right. To be more precise - to have a right to a private life - which entails freedom of movement. The fact that anyone is considering this - this is enough to start a war. It’s absolutely wrong. Reprehensible.

Just an afterthought; all those Russians, in Russia or outside?
I think I did. No, it is certainly not enough to start a war. It's either a misguided or a disgusting thing to do but (and this is going to sound a but stupid since I'm the one who brought the issue up) it's a thing of secondary importance compared to what is happening in Ukraine.

I'm afraid that you're using it as a way to deflect/shift the blame (at least going but what you've said about Bucha etc.) while my point is that we should consider the end result of such actions and whenever they're going to weaken Putin's regime (like most of the previous sanctions did) or strengthen it (like this one will).
 

Paxi

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Guys. Look through my posts..
I was always sympathetic to Donbas residents, however, I was appalled at the start of ‘war’

Im still anti war but the way Russians have been treated - racially abused - I’ll not stand for it.
 

VorZakone

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I stopped following the Ukraine situation about 2 weeks after it started.

Can someone explain how this is going on for so long? I remember the reports in the first couple of weeks saying how Russian army should be into Kiev within “hours”. It’s been 7 months now, what has actually been happening? Apologies for my ignorance on the matter.
What's happened was that the Russians botched the invasion, adjusted their objectives to a smaller scope, and are now holding onto some territory in the south and east. But there's a lot of attrition and the front lines move slow so the war is now just dragging on without a breakthrough.
 

dove

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Somebody has opened a cheap bottle of vodka rather early on a Sunday.
It’s just the way he always is, his views on the war are pretty much identical to the nonsense spouted on Russian tv channels. Just a victim of propaganda.
 

Paxi

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I think I did. No, it is certainly not enough to start a war. It's either a misguided or a disgusting thing to do but (and this is going to sound a but stupid since I'm the one who brought the issue up) it's a thing of secondary importance compared to what is happening in Ukraine.

I'm afraid that you're using it as a way to deflect/shift the blame (at least going but what you've said about Bucha etc.) while my point is that we should consider the end result of such actions and whenever they're going to weaken Putin's regime (like most of the previous sanctions did) or strengthen it (like this one will).
Right… that’s absolutely horrifying. Anyone can freedom of movement et al.
 

maniak

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@maniak absolutely no sense in me mentioning whataboutery. :)
Then stick to russia and ukraine, don't mention anyone else.

The west trying to tell russia what to do or how to be = outrageous, it must not stand!

Russia trying to tell ukraine what to do or how to be = well, it's geopolitics you see *sad smiley*

C'mon mate...
 

harms

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I stopped following the Ukraine situation about 2 weeks after it started.

Can someone explain how this is going on for so long? I remember the reports in the first couple of weeks saying how Russian army should be into Kiev within “hours”. It’s been 7 months now, what has actually been happening? Apologies for my ignorance on the matter.
Most of the reports were blatantly wrong in assessing both Ukraine's (underestimating it) and Russia's (way overestimating it) military power. And, what's probably most important, Russia itself didn't realise how difficult of a task it would be to blitzkrieg through half of Ukraine and take control of the biggest cities of Eastern & Central Ukraine.

In the end, Russia had suffered terrible losses over the first few weeks of badly organised offence, Russian forces were pushed back East, leaving Kiyv, Nikolaev and other major targets under Ukrainian control. After that Russia had focused on Donbass & Southern Ukraine, reorganising and focusing more on artillery fire rather than tanks & ground troops pushing forwards without much thought. They've managed to take Kherson and most of the Luganskaya oblast' under control and the plans are to have referendums in September for those territories to join Russia.

And this is where we are at the moment. Ukraine is getting more and more Western weapons as the time go and it probably has a strategic upper hand in terms of personnel since Ukraine (even though it only has 40 million of population compared to Russia's 140 mil) has already called for a global mobilisation and Putin is scared of calling one (he still refuses to call this "war" in order to keep the appearance of normality). But while Ukraine is probably better off in the long run, at this point it's almost a stalemate with nothing much happening in terms of big offensive or counter-offensive moves etc.
 

Paxi

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What's happened was that the Russians botched the invasion, adjusted their objectives to a smaller scope, and are now holding onto some territory in the south and east. But there's a lot of attrition and the front lines move slow so the war is now just dragging on without a breakthrough.
You actually believe that? You think a force of 30 btg could capture a city of Kiev.

Please explain that to me?

I will say this,Russia sent 18’s green men there