Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Beans

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This guy is going to end up being so popular his kids will walk into office just on his name if they have a mind.
 

4bars

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This guy is going to end up being so popular his kids will walk into office just on his name if they have a mind.
If I would be him, I would retire short after winning the war. Why tarnishing his legacy with the bickering of nasty politics
 

Beans

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If I would be him, I would retire short after winning the war. Why tarnishing his legacy with the bickering of nasty politics
Would you if you went through what he's gone through? I might be wrong, but you might be inspired to do what you can to speed the recovery process, assuming there is one.

If Russia gets pushed back to their border i expect they'll continue to try to get back in for as long as Putin lives. It would prevent Ukraine from joining the EU at least.
 

Beans

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Hard to say if that tweet is dumber than the original one.

How you could look at all this and think appeasement will work after it did nothing but fail...
 
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Spark

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Just another example as to why Musk is a total twat. All that “I used to be right of the dems now I’m left of the Republicans” bollocks is just a smokescreen for what he really thinks, which is anti-“big” government (and by extension, pro—Putin). His mask drops occasionally, like yesterday.

Probably craves for a Russian style society, where power = wealth/wealth = power.

Can’t believe people look up to the cnut.
 

stefan92

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Let’s move on,

whats the latest in kherson
Last I know are reports that Russians retreated from Dudchany, but that was already yesterday. I assume that the Ukrainians are making sure that they actually are gone there before marching on, and at some point I think the Russians have retreated so far that they will be able to properly resist again, at least for some time.
 

NicolaSacco

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I feel that Russia is a bit screwed whatever it does in that pocket of Kherson north of the river. They can’t defend Kherson city without keeping troops in that pocket (otherwise Ukraine could attack the city from 3 sides. So they can either let the current forces there fight a losing war of attrition in which all their equipment is lost or captured. Or they can funnel whatever they have in terms of equipment and men north across the river to resupply the existing troops. Which is a) exceptionally difficult with no bridges, and b) probably futile.

I’d like to see some predictions of if, when, or how the Kherson pocket will fall.
 

Rajma

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I feel that Russia is a bit screwed whatever it does in that pocket of Kherson north of the river. They can’t defend Kherson city without keeping troops in that pocket (otherwise Ukraine could attack the city from 3 sides. So they can either let the current forces there fight a losing war of attrition in which all their equipment is lost or captured. Or they can funnel whatever they have in terms of equipment and men north across the river to resupply the existing troops. Which is a) exceptionally difficult with no bridges, and b) probably futile.

I’d like to see some predictions of if, when, or how the Kherson pocket will fall.
I’ve seen suggestions from russian sources that russian generals are pleading putin to give up Kherson city and set up defenses on the east side of Dnipro river because if they overran them in Kherson, the Crimea will become unattainable.
 

stefan92

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I feel that Russia is a bit screwed whatever it does in that pocket of Kherson north of the river. They can’t defend Kherson city without keeping troops in that pocket (otherwise Ukraine could attack the city from 3 sides. So they can either let the current forces there fight a losing war of attrition in which all their equipment is lost or captured. Or they can funnel whatever they have in terms of equipment and men north across the river to resupply the existing troops. Which is a) exceptionally difficult with no bridges, and b) probably futile.

I’d like to see some predictions of if, when, or how the Kherson pocket will fall.
I still don’t think that Ukraine will advance fast around Kherson. Russian troops are still strong there, but their resupply is difficult, so here time is on Ukraine's side. It's different in the North were Ukraine has to keep going taking the railway hubs etc to cut the Russians off their resupply, which means they have to take the territory. So I think they'll keep their focus there and will move south until they reach the coast (Mariupol).

The Kerch bridge would be an easy target from there and that would finally make resupply of Kherson(which might be surrendered by that time or might not) and Crimea extremely difficult.

From my point of view everything which is happening around Kherson right now is just to prevent Russia from relocating those good troops to the Donbass battle, every territorial gains in that battle of attrition are just a bonus.
 

NicolaSacco

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In your first paragraph do you mean Russia will be forced/be attempting to RE-take that territory which contains those railway junctions?

Edit- sorry I see what you mean. It’s meaningful territory with real-world consequences in for example Lyman. In Kherson gaining territory itself takes second place to the fact that it’s keeping ten or twenty thousand Russian soldiers and their sorely needed equipment pinned down, being picked off at will. I think?
 
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Organic Potatoes

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Among other things like in the portion of the translation below, a Russian says they had inflicted a heavy defeat previously to Ukraine there (Kherson region) at the end of August but their group was left at the frontline exhausted whereas Ukraine rotated soldiers out and returned. He reckons they could have held out with air cover, but they ran out of ammunition as Ukraine bypassed strongholds and they lacked mobile units to plug holes.

 

TMDaines

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At least the weather in the relevant parts of Ukraine continues to look good for next couple of weeks. I saw a lot of sodden, muddy pictures and was getting worried that the climate may slow them down, but it looks like they won’t be deluged with rain and mud yet.

How long have they got before it becomes real difficult over winter and decisions will be have to made about whether to hold for a spring offensive? You’d think Ukraine and allies will make better use of a rest period than Russia would.
 

Frosty

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At least the weather in the relevant parts of Ukraine continues to look good for next couple of weeks. I saw a lot of sodden, muddy pictures and was getting worried that the climate may slow them down, but it looks like they won’t be deluged with rain and mud yet.

How long have they got before it becomes real difficult over winter and decisions will be have to made about whether to hold for a spring offensive? You’d think Ukraine and allies will make better use of a rest period than Russia would.
Not long. A few weeks? But at the start of winter the ground will harden and allow for vehicles to travel more easily before the real cold weather bites.
 

The Firestarter

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At least the weather in the relevant parts of Ukraine continues to look good for next couple of weeks. I saw a lot of sodden, muddy pictures and was getting worried that the climate may slow them down, but it looks like they won’t be deluged with rain and mud yet.

How long have they got before it becomes real difficult over winter and decisions will be have to made about whether to hold for a spring offensive? You’d think Ukraine and allies will make better use of a rest period than Russia would.
When the ground freezes the tanks and other Soviet design vegicles should have no issues with the air temp, they were engineered for this kind of weather. Not sure about the humvees.
 

stefan92

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When the ground freezes the tanks and other Soviet design vegicles should have no issues with the air temp, they were engineered for this kind of weather. Not sure about the humvees.
Ukraine isn't Siberia, all vehicles will be fine during the winter there.
 

2cents

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Seems to be reports of major advances on multiple fronts coming through now every few hours or so. At what point will the Russian collapse stop?
 

Bepi

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Musk is a troll at heart but he is not speaking his own words imho… there is a growing sentiment to try and stop this hot war before further, truly dangerous escalation.
 

JuriM

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Musk is a troll at heart but he is not speaking his own words imho… there is a growing sentiment to try and stop this hot war before further, truly dangerous escalation.
What do you consider more dangerous atm? I am seeing it from some people from Western Europe or the USA to continue to say that - but after the siege of Mariupol what is more catastrophic? (consider the huge losses of life in the public population there, the massive deportations from the region, and the massive destruction of the area)

Because I know what the discourse has been in our Estonian media throughout the war and what is discourse in other Baltic states, Poland, etc. And none of them are ever been afraid or been getting more afraid of some kind of "new" escalation the whole mobilization wasn't anything we weren't ready for, nor Ukraine itself - they have been considering that card since the first weeks of the war already - same goes with the Nuclear strike possibility.

The months of war have shown us that there is nothing to be afraid of, but to continue our everyday work and support towards the lines and push Russia back to the dark ages, literally.
 

spiriticon

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Shit is moving fast in Kherson oblast. The entire northeastern front seems to have collapsed today.

Davydiv Brid, Velkya Oleksandrivka, Starosilia liberated.

 

Rajma

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Seems to be reports of major advances on multiple fronts coming through now every few hours or so. At what point will the Russian collapse stop?
It won’t stop, their professional army (especially officers and commanders) has been almost completely wiped out together with the most capable locals from Donetsk/Luhansk, they can send thousands of mobilized into a meat grinder but those will panic and run at the first sight of the Ukrainian forces with no competent commanders to organize them. It’s just a matter of time now until Ukraine pushes out occupiers completely.
 

Semper Fudge

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Let’s move on,

whats the latest in kherson
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63126156

Essentially pro-Kremlin sources are reporting that Ukraine has indeed pushed Russia back. There’s very little official comms from the Ukrainian side and journalists are being kept away, which says to me that they’re making serious progress but don’t want to give away free intel.
 

Bepi

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What do you consider more dangerous atm? I am seeing it from some people from Western Europe or the USA to continue to say that - but after the siege of Mariupol what is more catastrophic? (consider the huge losses of life in the public population there, the massive deportations from the region, and the massive destruction of the area)

Because I know what the discourse has been in our Estonian media throughout the war and what is discourse in other Baltic states, Poland, etc. And none of them are ever been afraid or been getting more afraid of some kind of "new" escalation the whole mobilization wasn't anything we weren't ready for, nor Ukraine itself - they have been considering that card since the first weeks of the war already - same goes with the Nuclear strike possibility.

The months of war have shown us that there is nothing to be afraid of, but to continue our everyday work and support towards the lines and push Russia back to the dark ages, literally.
Mind, I share your perspective in full. The danger is a local war slowly escalating toward a global war.
 

JuriM

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Mind, I share your perspective in full. The danger is a local war slowly escalating toward a global war.
Yea it's not something to be afraid of.


You don't negotiate of be vary of terrorists, you stick together and act as needed to defeat them.
 

Rajma

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Bear in mind that Russian best remaining troops probably haven’t been rotated at all, thus further degrading their effectiveness.
 

2cents

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Russian sources are reporting that the whole northern front west of Dnepr is retreating.
This shows how fast things seem to be moving:

 

Rajma

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According to Girkin russian forces are running to Beryslav to try and establish a new defensive line around that area.