do ye reckon if he keeps buying forward players we might get raheem sterling on the cheap?
What's with Chelsea and hijacking transfers?
- Thread starter Eplel
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NO thanks. We dont need or want Sterling.
I fecking hope not. I get the feeling City were laughing their heads off upon receiving £50m for Sterling.
Until they were reminded that for Sterling they got half a Jack Grealish!!!
Why would we want to?
We've got loads of good wingers. Rashford, Antony, Sancho to return, Garnacho tearing up trees, Pellistri and Diallo can potentially be talents for us.
Completely baffling suggestion, it's the last position in the squad we need to lay down money for an experienced, expensive forward that is underperforming.
Wheels have come off completely. Trying to buy their way out of a hole, but the problems are self inflicted. Thomas Tuchel had them ticking over again and they sacked him. Now it is a disaster.
Don't Cheslea realise that they'd better bid quickly for Maguire and AWB, or they might get sold to someone else!!!! £100m for the pair - much better value than that Enzo Fernandez bloke.
Chelsea was reportedly being interested in off-loading Raheem Sterling now with Mudryk on board and Felix on loan. That could be hard to do, Sterling has definitely not impressed this year.
Before the Mudryk signing, I was fairly certain that Felix to Chelsea long-term was going to happen in the summer. I just didn't see Felix being interested in negotiating with anyone else if he developed a relationship with Potter and did well for Chelsea.
But I don't think Chelsea have control over their financials. There is an enormous difference between what any team can do in a summer if they get 70-80m in CL money or no money from Europe at all. Chelsea is not looking like a EL team right now. Should of course still get there, but who the heck knows this year. That 70-80m easily enables you to sign players for at least 250m. Chelsea has splashed an enormous amount of funds around lately.
Chelsea have signed players for 425m this season. 425m. I think they are realizing that they will fail to comply with the new FSR regulation next summer. What will happen them? UEFA will slap a fine of them of like 20m. And then say that Chelsea will lose all their future CL earnings unless they enter into an agreement with UEFA in which Chelsea undertakes to gradually move towards getting their financials in order over a period of 3 years. If the deficit is like 100m too big, they will basically be required to get it done to 66m after 1y, 33m after 2y and then comply with the rules in y3. By overspending now, they do push the problems further down the road and increase their ability to put a team on the pitch that is competitive while still achieving the earnings improvement stipulated in the settlement agreement entered into with the UEFA body.
Hence, I think Felix could be available for us next summer. If we want him, but I hope we do. I thought he was fantastic for Chelsea before he was sent off, for example.
Before the Mudryk signing, I was fairly certain that Felix to Chelsea long-term was going to happen in the summer. I just didn't see Felix being interested in negotiating with anyone else if he developed a relationship with Potter and did well for Chelsea.
But I don't think Chelsea have control over their financials. There is an enormous difference between what any team can do in a summer if they get 70-80m in CL money or no money from Europe at all. Chelsea is not looking like a EL team right now. Should of course still get there, but who the heck knows this year. That 70-80m easily enables you to sign players for at least 250m. Chelsea has splashed an enormous amount of funds around lately.
Chelsea have signed players for 425m this season. 425m. I think they are realizing that they will fail to comply with the new FSR regulation next summer. What will happen them? UEFA will slap a fine of them of like 20m. And then say that Chelsea will lose all their future CL earnings unless they enter into an agreement with UEFA in which Chelsea undertakes to gradually move towards getting their financials in order over a period of 3 years. If the deficit is like 100m too big, they will basically be required to get it done to 66m after 1y, 33m after 2y and then comply with the rules in y3. By overspending now, they do push the problems further down the road and increase their ability to put a team on the pitch that is competitive while still achieving the earnings improvement stipulated in the settlement agreement entered into with the UEFA body.
Hence, I think Felix could be available for us next summer. If we want him, but I hope we do. I thought he was fantastic for Chelsea before he was sent off, for example.
Yeah, their management can definitely be questioned, but at the same time, they got -- nine -- valuable players injured. Nine. That is almost a full starting XI. Mendy, Chilwell, Fofana, Reece James, Zakaria, Kante, Sterling, Pulicic and Armando Broja.
When I have seen them this year, they have just been a much better team when Reece James and Chilwell both have been playing and they were more healthy up front. They still have issues no doubt, but that has been issues of the kind that you would perhaps not bank on them being a winner in the top 4 race -- but they would certainly still be in that race and competing for a spot as well as any club outside of Arsenal and City. Now they should be happy if they get a Europa League spot.
The Athletic is reporting that Arsenal's bid and Chelsea's bid were the same but Chelsea's add ons were much more achievable. One of Arsenal's add on came after Arsenal won the CL.
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I think Arsenal also had a clause if Mudryk won Ballon d'or. He specifically mentioned that Chelsea's bid did not have that clause.
Arsenal's bid was 100m basically if he became a best player in the world and Arsenal became a best team in the world all within the 5 years timeframe on top of the payment schedule being longer.
So basically the two bids were not even comparable.
Where has it been reported by a reliable source that Chelsea will foul Of FFP next summer?
All I have seen is rival arm chair fans opinions which seems more like wishful thinking. Sky news (not most reliable source) did a piece today explaining exactly why we wouldn’t have a problem currently.
We will spend this summer, i dont think there will be any slow down either....
Wouldnt even be surprised, genuinely, to see us throw another 100m out this month
Just 100% my speculation — of course contingent on Chelsea not climbing a ton in the standing the rest of the season. And in addition, to underline how speculative it is, Chelsea has not released its 21/22 numbers yet.
With that said — my best guess is that if Chelsea don’t make the CL this season, they will be hamstrung next summer.
The signings of players for 420m this season results in amortization of around 70m per year if the average contract is 6 years. Add to that at least another 30m in wages. That is 100m more in costs.
Missing the CL and finishing a little above mid table is alone around 80m less in revenue.
I cannot imagine that Chelsea has a 180m cushion going into this season. No other club even remotely have had that kind of cushion. In addition, poor results always creates additional problems. Something we as Man Utd fans knows all to well. How easy will it be to sell Sterling in the summer? Can someone like Cucurella be sold? How much would Pulusic fetch? Jorginho? Loftus-Cheek? Like if you could sell players for 150m — then it looks a little brighter.
My rough guess is that — if, and only if — player sales are successful, Chelsea might afford to spend around 150m. I cannot see another 400m spent. And I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a lot worse.
Lastly, I am not in a position to rule out that Boehly could have some tinkering in place, you know sell future TV rights like Barca have done. Whatever.
I think they are counting - rightly or wrongly - on being able to sell a lot of players next summer.
On the one hand, Chelsea has been by far the most successful PL club at selling players over the last 10 years. And they do have a lot of players to potentially sell, including some young ones on cheaper wages.
On the other hand, it would not be surprising if Todd Boehly has significantly overestimated how easy it is to sell players. For one, he comes from a sporting world in which trading players is very easy because only a few players have no-trade clauses. Essentially, you don't need the player's agreement to ship them to another team, the players give up that right in the collective bargaining agreement. You also don't have to make agents happy in remotely the same way. Second, its not clear that he totally understands how hard it becomes to sell players on high wages, especially when its common knowledge that you want to sell players and many other clubs are also looking to sell players. He might look at a player like Ziyech and think "We bought him for 40m, somebody will at least give us 20m for him" but it just doesn't work that way. Very few clubs can pay his wages, most that can pay his wages will see him as not good enough for them, and among the tiny number of select clubs that can pay his wages but wouldn't turn their nose up, most are smart enough to push to take him on loan instead. The very fact that Boehly apparently thinks he can sell Sterling and Koulibaly next summer is indicative of him potentially not really getting these dynamics.
In general, if there's one cardinal rule of modern football its that almost everybody overestimates how easily their club can sell players and how much they can earn from sales.
Very good points made here. Like Boehly, a lot of our idiot fan base don't understand how difficult it is to sell players. I've seen a lot of morons expecting £40m for Maguire.
Chelsea have been decent at sales over the years but I think they'll really struggle to get value from the likes of: Lukaku, Sterling, Pulisic, Ziyech etc.
We don't want that
Don't knock Huey. If Huey Lewis & The News are good enough for Patrick Bateman, they''re good enough for me.
I think the main ones still under contract that we're looking to get rid off in the summer will be Aubameyang, Pulisic, Azpilicueta and Ziyech. The first three will have just a year left on their contract so while there may be some difficulties in finding a buyer it certainly shouldn't be impossible to sell/release this lot. Combined they have around £15M amortisation left on the books so anything above that overall for the lot will be counted as 'profit' on the financial accounts and more importantly going forwards it would clear whatever amortisation costs these players currently have and get them off the salary bill. Salary might be an issue for some but worst case scenario the club have to compensate a bit of their wages for a year if their next club won't pay them as much as they're currently making.
Ziyech will have two years left on his £100K/wk deal and of these four players he'll have the most amortisation value left (£15M) as well so we would need to get the most money for him which might not be so simple but there is said to be a lot of interest in Ziyech too. Whether that's still the case in the summer remains to be seen. Worst case scenario we just loan him out for a year and then look to sell in 2024 when his contract situation is more leaned towards an easier sale.
It's also very possible we're looking to sell the likes of Loftus-Cheek, Gallagher and Hudson-Odoi in the summer. These are academy grown players with zero amortisation costs to begin with so any fee gained from selling these players will be counted as pure profit. With these players I'm absolutely sure there will be plenty of interest if we are open to selling.
Jorginho will leave at the end of contract, thus freeing around £16M in costs (amortisation + salary).
Let's play a guessing game on some outgoing players:
- Aubameyang: release on a free and no salary compensation -> £8M a year saved but still have to take a loss on the remaining amortisation (£5M)
- Pulisic: sell for £15M and pay £50K/wk salary compensation for a year -> £18M a year saved
- Ziyech: loan out for a year with a £2M loan fee and the loan club paying full salary (£100K/wk) -> £7M a year saved
- Azpilicueta: release on a free and no salary compensation -> £8M a year saved
- Jorginho: release at the end of contract -> £16M saved
- Hudson-Odoi: sell for £15M -> £6M a year saved in salary and a one-off £15M profit on the fee
- Gallagher: sell for £30M -> £3M a year saved in salary and a one-off £30M profit on the fee
That's around £115M savings/profit compared to this year and only includes Pulisic, Hudson-Odoi and Gallagher being sold for fees that I would consider quite reasonable. Now if we were to also be successful in selling off some others (ie. Havertz, Koulibaly) that would give a lot more wiggle room financially but it's probably not going to be easy to bin them. Also if Kante goes that's another £18M a year saved but at the moment it's said to be 50/50 whether he extends or not.
So yeah this is the baseline for next summer. I don't imagine there being clubs lining up to take our surplus off our hands and paying a premium value for it but these are not bad players by any means, and some of them I would even call good. They're just not suited to what we need right now. I don't think the numbers I've put up there are going to be too unrealistic to actually get but let's see how it goes.
they were a bit too "black" for his taste. bateman was a genesis fan, no?
He liked both. Thought their "Sports" album was the zenith . Only liked post-Gabriel peak/Collins Genesis.
ah yeah, that's right - he was trying put tommy lee jones off the scent.
Willem Dafoe!
What i cannot understand is how players are still happy to go to Chelsea given the position they are in. What is all this talk about this “exciting project”? Seems all nonsense to me. Their football is dull to watch and their squad is massively inflated with a relatively unproven manager (whose future is in doubt by the way). They most likely will not even be in Europe next year. Saw that interview where Mudryk said something along the lines of “looking forward to be working under Graham Potter and improving my game” - Joke of the day.
Getting paid a truckload of money, (living in London rather than up north if they're competing with Liverpool or Man City/Utd) and for all their upheavals, they win the league reasonably regularly and two Champions League wins in the last decade.
Not only that but it’s reasonable to assume Chelsea being in 10th place is a temporary position and from a player’s perspective, it’s Chelsea, recent European champions, finished 3rd last season and in both domestic finals etc. New owners so seeing Joao Felix join, knowing Nkunku is on the way, seeing us linked with Enzo Fernandez I’d say that kind of project might seem exciting. Keep in mind we managed to sign Kante the summer after we finished 10th so our current problems can be explained away as just being temporary problems unless it goes on for more than a season.
Great post and thanks for your insight on Chelsea.
Chelsea's revenue for 21/22 has been disclosed to be 481m in Deloitte's Football Money League (https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pag.../articles/deloitte-football-money-league.html).
Kieran Maguire touches upon Chelsea's FFP situation in the last Price of football podcast, think he was behind the original content that was spread by some newspapers and Sky last week. Anyway, he said that Chelsea would be hamstrung this summer unless they get into the Champions League. I think that he just is guessing like me. And that is still me expectation/best bet.
https://swissramble.substack.com/p/will-chelseas-transfer-spend-break
The new Swiss Ramble article also has a say on our finances and ability to comply with the new FFP.
For the ongoing season the new FFP spending cap is still at 100% revenues and despite all our (many) signings and not that many player sales the figure is currently estimated to be at around 92% for the season.
Next season the cap will go down by 10% to a total of 90% so with current revenues and no further player movements in either direction we'd be just over the limit. Now we already know certain players will go (ie. Jorginho at the end of his deal) so if the revenues were to stay the same we'd definitely be fine and very likely would even be able to make a couple more new signings with the money saved. With some further player sales the wiggle room would get bigger.
Without CL money and having to comply with the 90% spending limit anyway is where it can get a little more tricky and we'll first need to reduce player costs for the CL money's worth (£80M give or take) before even beginning to think about incomings, though I think the monitoring period for this new FFP is longer than 12 months so going over the limit in one season but complying with a decent enough cushion on other years won't necessarily result in some immediate FFP penalties. The key is to get back in the CL for the following season so we don't miss out on the big European monies on multiple occasions in a row which is why I'm pretty sure the club will still continue to spend on rebuilding the squad with a big enough investment to try and make sure that doesn't happen.
It was always obvious we can't keep spending like this season forever and eventually there will have to be some success in the player sale department and general cost cutting as well to make the 70% FFP cap starting from 25/26 season.
When are they announcing Trossard??
I would rather have the massive dick swinging of Boehly over the shrunk dick and balls in cold weather approach of the glazers.
When it comes to Mudryk I can see why they hijack it. Few players in the world who's that quick!
He will either be a mediocre signing at Chelsea or a major hit. We could have used that speed in our squad!!
He will either be a mediocre signing at Chelsea or a major hit. We could have used that speed in our squad!!
Yeah, but the Swiss Ramble miss the wood for all the trees. He looks at how UEFA will evaluate Chelsea in the summer of 2023 under the old FFP rules. I.e. if Chelsea has spent too much in previous seasons. That is what it is, its (almost) all about old sins at this point. It will have no impact whatsoever on what Chelsea can do going forward, in the summer of 2023, when it set its cost costume for the 23/24 season.
In the summer of 2024, UEFA will evaluate Chelsea based on the result of 22/23 and 23/24 (its 2 years the first time, then 3 years). So when Chelsea sets its cost costume in the summer 2023, it must be done in the light of the up coming evaluation of Chelsea by UEFA in the summer of 2024. The Swiss Ramble (is it Kieran Maguire?) has Chelsea getting a result of minus 165m during the 22/23 season. The aggregate result for 22/23 and 23/24 can only be minus 70m. This means that Chelsea would have to make a PROFIT of 95m in 23/24 -- or have an improved result of 255m Y2Y -- despite not being in the CL. That would be Juventus bad.
However, it will not be as grim as that. As I describe in the FFP thread on the main board, all costs shall not be counted in relation to the new FFP rules. All investments in relation to the stadium, the Youth Squad and the Womens team are excluded. Why have Chelsea bought a ton of youth players lately? There is the answer. If you buy youth players for 50m and instantly sell them for 25m, you make a 25m profit according to UEFA.
At the bottom line, my initial reaction stands, I cannot see Chelsea making a big splash on the transfer market during the summer and January transfer window next season if they miss the CL. Buying Felix, Enzo, Gvardiol and Oshmien? Getting one of them should be hard, but perhaps not impossible if they do really well selling players.
If you look near the end of the Swiss Ramble thing there's a chapter that covers the club's finances specifically for this 'new FFP'. The estimate is we'll use 92% of the current cap for the 22/23 season which will pass easily and none of the old FFP rules matter one bit.
But yeah like I said things will have to improve if we want to comply with the rules in the 2024 monitoring period, and we'll have to be successful in selling off some previous surplus if we want to buy more.
Yeah, but that is only the new Squad Cost Rule. Kieran/The Swiss Ramble is focusing a bit too much on that rule. The Football Earnings Rule is the bigger worry.
Just another 29 million today. If they give him a 15 year contract though it'll all be fine
Now you’re getting it. Haha. 2 mil a season. Peanuts