Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

The United

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Again, messaging is important. Need to get it through Putin's skull that there won't be no easing. That the longer he stays in Ukraine, it's only going to get harder and bloodier for Russia. Currently Russian leadership still thinks they can bleed Ukraine dry before more meaningful support arrives for Ukraine. As Rob Lee says, they are still playing to win.

The messaging to Russia needs to change from "we're going to make this very costly for you" to "you will lose, we'll absolutely make sure you do, and the only question remaining is how badly do you want to get beaten before you come to realise this".
Exactly.

Evidently, the Russians are preparing for some major offensives, which some people here said they could not do a few weeks ago. They even started some in some areas. Ill-equipped and poorly trained troops can still gain some ground and waste the UA's combat capability. This is a fact. We can't just only look at how many losses the Russians are suffering.

Now comes the question of what UA is doing. They are good at keeping their plan secret, and hopefully this is the case regarding having some.

In that WSJ article above,

“Our calculations were based on the fact that Russia still is an enormous country and with much bigger resources when it comes to soldiers and ability to produce weaponry which does not require Western components,” said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, one of the earliest proponents of stepping up Western deliveries. “The longer we give them, the more people…they can throw at the Ukrainians.”
 

frostbite

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Tornados won't happen. They will be phased out of active duty in 2028 if everything works as planned (replacements arriving as ordered and scheduled) and even if that works out they are already very thin on operating hours that you can squeeze out of those old things. But they are needed because at the moment Germany has no other plane that can fulfill their role. Giving them to Ukraine would create an unacceptable capability gap for the German Air Force itself.

It's different to the tank situation. That was mostly political and can be solved by using new production and units put in stock by the industry.

There are no surplus planes in Germany, but there are surplus tanks (although not in a full, operational state, but that can be fixed in an acceptable time frame).

Or in other words, Tornado deliveries would only be possible if F-35s for Germany were fast-tracked.

 

frostbite

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Back to the F-16, he is totally right. Alone, it would be limited to low-altitude sorties and be vulnerable to MANPADS.
I don't know why people repeat this. US has a shitload of air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles for the F-16, and some of them have very long range. It also has a very capable radar and electronics. The F-16, operating inside Ukraine, can hit air and ground targets without getting too close to the Russians. For example, variants of these missiles have 1,000 km range and they can be used against the Russian artillery and ships:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-158_JASSM

The F-16 will not be used for dogfights. Dogfights are only for the movies today, real war today means radars and missiles.

The main problem with the F-16 is that Ukraine has to develop all the maintenance infrastructure while at war. It is not easy, but it can be done.
 

frostbite

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Giving them to Ukraine would create an unacceptable capability gap for the German Air Force itself.
The German air force is not needed for anything, and will not take part in anything anyway. So, this is not really a problem, it is just an excuse, like the other meaningless excuses in the past 12 months about the reasons Germany cannot provide modern equipment to Ukraine.
 

Red in STL

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The German air force is not needed for anything, and will not take part in anything anyway. So, this is not really a problem, it is just an excuse, like the other meaningless excuses in the past 12 months about the reasons Germany cannot provide modern equipment to Ukraine.
I think someone here doesn't like Germans!
 

stefan92

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The German air force is not needed for anything, and will not take part in anything anyway. So, this is not really a problem, it is just an excuse, like the other meaningless excuses in the past 12 months about the reasons Germany cannot provide modern equipment to Ukraine.
The Greek air force is not needed for anything, and will not take part in anything anyway. So it should give all its planes to Ukraine.

And while at it, the Greek navy is not needed for anything as well it should give its U-214 submarines to Ukraine as well.

If you don't support this you as a Greek are personally responsible for every dead Ukrainian.

All kidding aside that post is one of the most stupid takes you did in this thread and I think that says something...

Edit: To add some substance, for example the German Air Force is needed for air policing missions like this:
 
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Red in STL

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The Greek air force is not needed for anything, and will not take part in anything anyway. So it should give all its planes to Ukraine.

And while at it, the Greek navy is not needed for anything as well it should give its U-214 submarines to Ukraine as well.

If you don't support this you as a Greek are personally responsible for every dead Ukrainian.

All kidding aside that post is one of the most stupid takes you did in this thread and I think that says something...
 

MadMike

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I don't know why people repeat this. US has a shitload of air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles for the F-16, and some of them have very long range. It also has a very capable radar and electronics. The F-16, operating inside Ukraine, can hit air and ground targets without getting too close to the Russians. For example, variants of these missiles have 1,000 km range and they can be used against the Russian artillery and ships:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-158_JASSM

The F-16 will not be used for dogfights. Dogfights are only for the movies today, real war today means radars and missiles.

The main problem with the F-16 is that Ukraine has to develop all the maintenance infrastructure while at war. It is not easy, but it can be done.
We keep saying it, because we vaguely know what we’re talking about. Did you read the thread? Also, literally no one said it would be used for dogfights.

The air-to-air missile are more effective when fired from high altitude and don’t have to work too much against gravity. Your aircraft also need to be at high altitude to fire cruise missiles to impart kinetic energy into them. Finally higher altitude allows your radar to see further. Currently it’s difficult to fly at high altitudes in Ukraine because of Russian SAMs. HARM missiles on their own are not a solution (Ukrainian MiGs already have HARM missiles)

F-16s are neither particularly fast jets nor do they carry EW suites. That means they can’t fly high and quick enough to get out of SAM range, nor do they carry EW suites like the Growlers to degrade Russian radars.

PS. European air-to-air missiles are also better. Hence Eurofighters with MDBA missiles are the best option for air dominance, short of getting your hands on F-22s.
 

Red in STL

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We keep saying it, because we vaguely know what we’re talking about. Did you read the thread? Also, literally no one said it would be used for dogfights.

The air-to-air missile are more effective when fired from high altitude and don’t have to work too much against gravity. Your aircraft also need to be at high altitude to fire cruise missiles to impart kinetic energy into them. Finally higher altitude allows your radar to see further. Currently it’s difficult to fly at high altitudes in Ukraine because of Russian SAMs. HARM missiles on their own are not a solution (Ukrainian MiGs already have HARM missiles)

F-16s are neither particularly fast jets nor do they carry EW suites. That means they can’t fly high and quick enough to get out of SAM range, nor do they carry EW suites like the Growlers to degrade Russian radars.

PS. European air-to-air missiles are also better. Hence Eurofighters with MDBA missiles are the best option for air dominance, short of getting your hands on F-22s.
And the PS is never happening!
 

MadMike

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And the PS is never happening!
Which part, the F-22s or the Eurofighters?

The F-22s of course isn’t. Too much classified American tech. But I think a squadron of Eurofighters is doable. If among the 4 major European partners (Germany, Italy, Spain & Britain) they donate 6 each, then Ukraine will have a squadron capable of protecting other aircraft.
 

Red in STL

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Which part, the F-22s or the Eurofighters?

The F-22s of course isn’t. Too much classified American tech. But I think a squadron of Eurofighters is doable. If among the 4 major European partners (Germany, Italy, Spain & Britain) they donate 6 each, then Ukraine will have a squadron capable of protecting other aircraft.
Can't see it happening, I can't help thinking Harriers could have been a good option but they're probably too complicated to train quickly
 

the hea

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Which part, the F-22s or the Eurofighters?

The F-22s of course isn’t. Too much classified American tech. But I think a squadron of Eurofighters is doable. If among the 4 major European partners (Germany, Italy, Spain & Britain) they donate 6 each, then Ukraine will have a squadron capable of protecting other aircraft.
SAAB Gripen would be a good option. They can launch both Meteor and IRIS-T missiles and are built to operate from roadside bases with low maintanence requirements, the low production numbers is a problem though.
 
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VorZakone

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It's quite something how pervasive Russian disinfo is. The other day I read in a comment section from my local media that Zelenskys wife spent 40k on a shopping spree in Paris. Not proven at all.

 

Carolina Red

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SAAB Gripen would be a good option. They can launch both Meteor and IRIS-T missiles and are built to operate from roadside bases with low maintanence requirements, the low production numbers is a problem though.
The Gripen would be a great option, especially since its designed to operate in relatively low infrastructure environments.

Edit: they also have a very low cost / operation hour compared to any of NATO's fighters.
 

the hea

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The Gripen would be a great option, especially since its designed to operate in relatively low infrastructure environments.

Edit: they also have a very low cost / operation hour compared to any of NATO's fighters.
A funny coincidence regarding the Gripens happened after the last Ramstein meeting, Oleksii Reznikov the Ukrainian defence minister posted this tweet.


For those that don't speak Swedish, the English word for gripen is griffin.
 

Buster15

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Tornados won't happen. They will be phased out of active duty in 2028 if everything works as planned (replacements arriving as ordered and scheduled) and even if that works out they are already very thin on operating hours that you can squeeze out of those old things. But they are needed because at the moment Germany has no other plane that can fulfill their role. Giving them to Ukraine would create an unacceptable capability gap for the German Air Force itself.

It's different to the tank situation. That was mostly political and can be solved by using new production and units put in stock by the industry.

There are no surplus planes in Germany, but there are surplus tanks (although not in a full, operational state, but that can be fixed in an acceptable time frame).

Or in other words, Tornado deliveries would only be possible if F-35s for Germany were fast-tracked.
Understood and perfectly correct.
The reason I mentioned that was because and despite its age, the German Tornado is the only fighter jet that could perform both ground attack (IDS) and electronic combat reconnaissance (ECR) roles, which would be ideal for Ukraine.
 

frostbite

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We keep saying it, because we vaguely know what we’re talking about. Did you read the thread? Also, literally no one said it would be used for dogfights.

The air-to-air missile are more effective when fired from high altitude and don’t have to work too much against gravity. Your aircraft also need to be at high altitude to fire cruise missiles to impart kinetic energy into them. Finally higher altitude allows your radar to see further. Currently it’s difficult to fly at high altitudes in Ukraine because of Russian SAMs. HARM missiles on their own are not a solution (Ukrainian MiGs already have HARM missiles)

F-16s are neither particularly fast jets nor do they carry EW suites. That means they can’t fly high and quick enough to get out of SAM range, nor do they carry EW suites like the Growlers to degrade Russian radars.

PS. European air-to-air missiles are also better. Hence Eurofighters with MDBA missiles are the best option for air dominance, short of getting your hands on F-22s.
Do you feel really confident that you "vaguely" know that the F-16s are not useful for the Ukrainians? While the Ukrainian high command and the Pentagon do not "vaguely" know this?

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/28/pentagon-send-f-16s-ukraine-00080045

At the Pentagon, push to send F-16s to Ukraine picks up steam

Kyiv has renewed its request for modern fighters in recent days after the U.S. and Germany approved transferring tanks.
 

frostbite

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SAAB Gripen would be a good option. They can launch both Meteor and IRIS-T missiles and are built to operate from roadside bases with low maintanence requirements, the low production numbers is a problem though.
The only realistic option for a modern aircraft to Ukraine is the F-16.

Simply because this is a political decision, and if the USA doesn't do it, the Europeans will not do it either.
 

MadMike

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Do you feel really confident that you "vaguely" know that the F-16s are not useful for the Ukrainians? While the Ukrainian high command and the Pentagon do not "vaguely" know this?

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/28/pentagon-send-f-16s-ukraine-00080045

At the Pentagon, push to send F-16s to Ukraine picks up steam

Kyiv has renewed its request for modern fighters in recent days after the U.S. and Germany approved transferring tanks.
I’m not sure if you even read what you were responding to, but if you did and that’s your response then we don’t really have much to discuss to be honest. Astonishing inability to comprehend.
 

frostbite

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The Greek air force is not needed for anything, and will not take part in anything anyway. So it should give all its planes to Ukraine.
You are not well informed. There is a constant problem with Turkey.
https://greekreporter.com/2022/12/31/turkey-violated-greek-airspace-10000-times-2022/
Turkey Violated Airspace of Greece More than 10,000 Times in 2022

This problem continues for many years now because Germany does not help Greece with this. Because Germany makes a lot of money with Erdogan, and there are a lot of Turkish voters in Germany, so Germany does not complain too much about "corruption" in Turkey. Turkey-Greece is a similar situation to Russia-Uklraine, and Germany makes more money with Russia/Turkey, at least it used to.
 

stefan92

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You are not well informed. There is a constant problem with Turkey.
https://greekreporter.com/2022/12/31/turkey-violated-greek-airspace-10000-times-2022/
Turkey Violated Airspace of Greece More than 10,000 Times in 2022

This problem continues for many years now because Germany does not help Greece with this. Because Germany makes a lot of money with Erdogan, and there are a lot of Turkish voters in Germany, so Germany does not complain too much about "corruption" in Turkey. Turkey-Greece is a similar situation to Russia-Uklraine, and Germany makes more money with Russia/Turkey, at least it used to.
Ok, let's get this done for good. Please give a complete list of everything in the world Germany is at fault for and then we can just stop this madness in this thread...
 

frostbite

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Ok, let's get this done for good. Please give a complete list of everything in the world Germany is at fault for and then we can just stop this madness in this thread...
It is not my fault you are not informed. Here is an interview with Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, that talks about Ukraine, Greece, Germany, Turkey. There are a lot of issues, and there are people working to resolve them.


https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/-/2544986

“Greece can rely on Germany’s solidarity”
28.07.2022 - Interview
Interview with Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, published in the Greek newspaper Ta Nea on 28 July 2022.
 

stefan92

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It is not my fault you are not informed. Here is an interview with Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, that talks about Ukraine, Greece, Germany, Turkey. There are a lot of issues, and there are people working to resolve them.


https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/-/2544986

“Greece can rely on Germany’s solidarity”
28.07.2022 - Interview
Interview with Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, published in the Greek newspaper Ta Nea on 28 July 2022.
Holy sh*t... you really don't get anything people write, do you? And you just ignore every argument?

Of course Greece needs an Air Force
And of course Germany needs an Air Force

Nobody seriously denies that, only you seem to do just out of blind hate of Germany.
 

The United

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"Yaroslavskyi also warned that “super qualified” regular Russian military troops are now assisting Wagner private military contractors in assaulting the towns surrounding Bakhmut. That was echoed by another local Ukrainian commander, Volodymyr Nazarenko, who said that Russian paratroopers were taking part in the Bakhmut fight.

“They are just coming forward, they do not take cover, they are coming all-out,” Yaroslavskyi said on national television on Monday.

Russian forces have been making slow but steady gains both north and south of Bakhmut. The last remaining routes under Ukrainian control into the city have come under heavier Russian fire in the past week, according to Ukrainian officials and commanders." - CNN.

Who the hell are "super qualified" regular Russian military troops? Thought most got obligated already. Also, does this mean the Russian MOD and Wagner are working together now for a wasteland?
 

RoyH1

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"Yaroslavskyi also warned that “super qualified” regular Russian military troops are now assisting Wagner private military contractors in assaulting the towns surrounding Bakhmut. That was echoed by another local Ukrainian commander, Volodymyr Nazarenko, who said that Russian paratroopers were taking part in the Bakhmut fight.

“They are just coming forward, they do not take cover, they are coming all-out,” Yaroslavskyi said on national television on Monday.

Russian forces have been making slow but steady gains both north and south of Bakhmut. The last remaining routes under Ukrainian control into the city have come under heavier Russian fire in the past week, according to Ukrainian officials and commanders." - CNN.

Who the hell are "super qualified" regular Russian military troops? Thought most got obligated already. Also, does this mean the Russian MOD and Wagner are working together now for a wasteland?
Russia since Soviet times has had a sort of ranking system for it's troops, at least at a division level. So called "guards units" would get the best equipment and training (specially if they were close to Moscow or Leningrad). I think they kept up that tradition at least to some point.
But if like the story you quote, they are using paratroopers as pure infantry, then they do have some issues with personnel. Those guys should be used for high level targets, not friggin Bakhmut.
 

MadMike

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Holy sh*t... you really don't get anything people write, do you? And you just ignore every argument?

Of course Greece needs an Air Force
And of course Germany needs an Air Force

Nobody seriously denies that, only you seem to do just out of blind hate of Germany.
I feel like it’s pointless to argue and the ignore function will serve you better.
 

Simbo

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Vuhledar is in quite an interesting location. Sits just North of Mariupol so has the Russian front on its south since last year and been on the Donbas front to its east since 2014. It also has overwatch on a key railway line that connects southern Ukraine in the currently occupied territories, which would have become even more vital for the Russians to secure since Kerch bridge was hit.

 

Revan

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