Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[frostbite]

Russia is a fascist state that does not want to know its real history. Lies upon lies about its own past and present. I don't know if there is a way back, with or without Putin. Too many people are involved.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65024254

Memorial raids: Russia targets leaders of banned Nobel Prize-winning group

Nine leaders of one of Russia's oldest human rights groups, Memorial, have been targeted in raids on their homes, 15 months after their organisation was shut down by the courts.

Among them was Memorial's co-chair, Oleg Orlov, who is facing a criminal case for "discrediting" the military.

Founded in 1989, Memorial aimed to remember millions of innocent people persecuted by Soviet repression.

But it was liquidated ahead of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

Russia is a fascist state that does not want to know its real history. Lies upon lies about its own past and present. I don't know if there is a way back, with or without Putin. Too many people are involved.

It reminds me of a tweet that Mark Hertling wrote only 2 days ago.

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While Germany and Japan managed to rise up from the ashes of WW2 to become a new breed of superpowers through economy, Russia are in a much deeper hole compared to the other 2 countries because of longstanding kleptocracy and corruption. You could have Jason and the Argonauts with you, and yet it would not be enough to clean up the house in Russia.

 

[frostbite]

It reminds me of a tweet that Mark Hertling wrote only 2 days ago.

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While Germany and Japan managed to rise up from the ashes of WW2 to become a new breed of superpowers through economy, Russia are in a much deeper hole compared to the other 2 countries because of longstanding kleptocracy and corruption. You could have Jason and the Argonauts with you, and yet it would not be enough to clean up the house in Russia.

Yes. Also, both Germany and Japan transformed into modern, stable democracies (while neither of them had any deep democratic traditions in the past). And the truth is that occupation by the United States helped them to establish and nurture their democracies, especially at the beginning.

Russia does have this and doesn't show any deep desire for democracy... actually, I really don't see how they can transform themselves into a democracy. Watching videos with interviews of everyday Russians on youtube, I get the impression that Putin is not an anomaly, if it wasn't Putin it would be someone else. And if the autocrat cannot depend on an economic ideology like Communism to justify their power and their excesses, then they need some other ideology, and usually this is either God or Nationalism or both.

 

[ExoduS]

Yes. Also, both Germany and Japan transformed into modern, stable democracies (while neither of them had any deep democratic traditions in the past). And the truth is that occupation by the United States helped them to establish and nurture their democracies, especially at the beginning.

Russia does have this and doesn't show any deep desire for democracy... actually, I really don't see how they can transform themselves into a democracy. Watching videos with interviews of everyday Russians on youtube, I get the impression that Putin is not an anomaly, if it wasn't Putin it would be someone else. And if the autocrat cannot depend on an economic ideology like Communism to justify their power and their excesses, then they need some other ideology, and usually this is either God or Nationalism or both.

I think USA should nuke some democracy into Russia. It will be good for them. Worked for Japan, no?

 

[Real Name]

This will be fun.

 

[stefan92]

I think USA should nuke some democracy into Russia. It will be good for them. Worked for Japan, no?

Nobody says Russia should be nuked. But it needs a very deep transformation and that's very unlikely to happen without "boots on the ground" supporting and organizing this transformation.

 

[Ragnar123]

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When will they start removing T-34 monuments to use them in Ukraine?

 

[Buster15]

I think USA should nuke some democracy into Russia. It will be good for them. Worked for Japan, no?

Please think about what you have just posted.

 

[The Firestarter]

Please think about what you have just posted.

That's not his strong suit.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

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When will they start removing T-34 monuments to use them in Ukraine?

At this rate, they might soon put the Mark V monument from Arkhangelsk back into service.

 

[B20]

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When will they start removing T-34 monuments to use them in Ukraine?

I am not sure it's something that mockable. They likely have a feckton of T-54/55s in storage. They may be from the 70s, but being able to add to your tanks force like this is obviously an asset Russia has that I am sure Ukraine would be copying if they could. Likely, it is only the US that can fight a war like this and never worry about exhausting resources.

 

[calodo2003]

I am not sure it's something that mockable. They likely have a feckton of T-54/55s in storage. They may be from the 70s, but being able to add to your tanks force like this is obviously an asset Russia has that I am sure Ukraine would be copying if they could. Likely, it is only the US that can fight a war like this and never worry about exhausting resources.

Likely some of those tanks are older than that.

 

[The Firestarter]

I am not sure it's something that mockable. They likely have a feckton of T-54/55s in storage. They may be from the 70s, but being able to add to your tanks force like this is obviously an asset Russia has that I am sure Ukraine would be copying if they could. Likely, it is only the US that can fight a war like this and never worry about exhausting resources.

But they are painfully useless compared to modern armor and even more so to MANPATS

 

[Buster15]

That's not his strong suit.

Clearly.

 

[11101]

I am not sure it's something that mockable. They likely have a feckton of T-54/55s in storage. They may be from the 70s, but being able to add to your tanks force like this is obviously an asset Russia has that I am sure Ukraine would be copying if they could. Likely, it is only the US that can fight a war like this and never worry about exhausting resources.

The main news is that Russia are replenishing stocks with obsolete 1950s era equipment whilst Ukraine are getting the very latest kit from the West. Losses will only accelerate from here.

 

[Ragnar123]

The main news is that Russia are replenishing stocks with obsolete 1950s era equipment whilst Ukraine are getting the very latest kit from the West. Losses will only accelerate from here.

Exactly. They will only scratch the surface of Leos and Challengers, while getting obliterated with the first hit from them if they even can get close enough to see them actually. Most of the time the T55 won't even know where the enemy is until it goes up in flames. The same result with other modern anti armor like Javelins and Manpads. This will not improve the morale of russian tankers either if they have to duel modern tanks in that old garbage.

 

[onemanarmy]

I am not sure it's something that mockable. They likely have a feckton of T-54/55s in storage. They may be from the 70s, but being able to add to your tanks force like this is obviously an asset Russia has that I am sure Ukraine would be copying if they could. Likely, it is only the US that can fight a war like this and never worry about exhausting resources.

They have a feckton in storage, but what percentage will be operational? A marginal amount, absolutely sure. They've been in storage for decades.

 

[Simbo]

I am not sure it's something that mockable. They likely have a feckton of T-54/55s in storage. They may be from the 70s, but being able to add to your tanks force like this is obviously an asset Russia has that I am sure Ukraine would be copying if they could. Likely, it is only the US that can fight a war like this and never worry about exhausting resources.

They will soak up some Ukranian ammo. Costs Putin nothing much, just y'know... Russian people.

 

[B20]

Exactly. They will only scratch the surface of Leos and Challengers, while getting obliterated with the first hit from them if they even can get close enough to see them actually. Most of the time the T55 won't even know where the enemy is until it goes up in flames. The same result with other modern anti armor like Javelins and Manpads. This will not improve the morale of russian tankers either if they have to duel modern tanks in that old garbage.

As long as Russia continues to have such superior numbers of tanks compared to Ukraine, they aren't duelling 1to1. More likely many of those will see enough battle unopposed to be well worth it.

Make no mistake, if Ukraine had the option of doing the same, they would have a long time ago.

 

[the hea]

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[frostbite]

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[frostbite]

Most Republicans support aid for Ukraine as do most Dems, so any attempt to curtail it by (lets say) a Trump or DeSantis would meet fierce resistance from both Congress and by a large swath of the US public, which is something no new President will want to have to deal with. Moreover, by the time of the next inauguration in Jan of 2025, I expect the Russians will have been sufficiently beaten down and will have probably drawn back by then, which will make the issue a moot point. Putin would be hard pressed to remain in power and in the process obliterate the Russian economy for much longer imo.

Ron DeSantis says his Ukraine remarks 'mischaracterised'

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65047556

The widely tipped 2024 White House contender said in a TV interview his remarks had been "mischaracterised".

He also struck a tougher tone on Vladimir Putin, calling the Russian president a "war criminal".


"It wasn't that I thought Russia had a right to that," Mr DeSantis added, calling the notion that Moscow was justified in its attack "nonsense".

"If I could snap my fingers, I'd give it back to Ukraine 100%," the former congressman and ex-US Navy lawyer continued.

 

[Ragnar123]

As long as Russia continues to have such superior numbers of tanks compared to Ukraine, they aren't duelling 1to1. More likely many of those will see enough battle unopposed to be well worth it.

Make no mistake, if Ukraine had the option of doing the same, they would have a long time ago.

The older their tanks become, the less numbers matter. I've read the T54/T55 armor can be penetrated with a 50. cal in some places.

Russians are 2 steps ahead. They have already bandages in their helmets so they don't need to wait for medics.

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[Simbo]

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[MadMike]

While it's ok to poke fun at them about the T-50s, it's still better to be in an old tank than to be doing frontal infantry assaults against machine gun equipped trenches. All while there's mortar and artillery shells, or grenade-dropping drones, flying over head. And 100 T-50s can still overwhelm a defensive front line consisting mostly of light infantry (if they can find enough tankers to man them that is).

We need to make sure Ukraine has as many ATGMs as possible. Their trenches need to be overflowing with NLAWs, Javelins and their domestically produced Stugnas. And we should make sure their artillery has as many remotely deployed anti tank mines as we can get our hands on.

 

[Morty_]

How much of a failure is the Russian army at this point ?

I can't believe they still fail to take Bakhmut, after all this time.

 

[dove]

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[RedDevilQuebecois]

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Saw that last week. Nice way to cut the grass under someone's feet by making sure the other side would not have an excuse of having anything being lost in translation anymore.

 

[Raoul]

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[dove]

Lots of talk about Nova Kakhovka being liberated.

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[VorZakone]

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[MadMike]

Lots of talk about Nova Kakhovka being liberated.

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Sounds more like no man's land as opposed to Ukrainian forces being there.

If they have indeed succeeded in taking control of it and establishing a bridgehead there, it is huge news. But I doubt that from the nature of the announcement.

 

[Raoul]

Mildly significant given that its across the river.

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[RedDevilQuebecois]

Mildly significant given that its across the river.

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I understand if the Ukrainians are cautious before they go in, but this could well be a Remagen moment in the war.

 

[Raoul]

I understand if the Ukrainians are cautious before they go in, but this could well be a Remagen moment in the war.

Agreed. I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians are thinning out in various front line locations throughout the winter, which the Ukrainians are happily prepared to exploit once vacated.

 

[Ragnar123]

Russia's main defensive line is a few km away from the Dnipro river outside artillery range. Both sides do reconnaissance missions near and across the river, so it's more or less no man's land there. I wouldn't interpret too much into the Nova Kakhovka news.
I also read a couple of days ago of some Ukrainian offensive moves in the Zaporizhzhia region. Overall it looks like Ukraine is poking the hornet's nest in some places now to get information on their defenses before their counter offensive later.

 

[dove]

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Bizarre, how do you make a mistake like that?

 

[the hea]

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Bizarre, how do you make a mistake like that?

Maybe a rotation of troops on the Russian side?

 

[Morty_]

Russia has spent so much time, manpower and resources on Bakhmut, and yet, in the end, they may not even be able to take it.

This assault on that area looks like an act of desperation to me, they know they are screwed and just tried to gain some ground before it all goes to shit.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Russia's main defensive line is a few km away from the Dnipro river outside artillery range. Both sides do reconnaissance missions near and across the river, so it's more or less no man's land there. I wouldn't interpret too much into the Nova Kakhovka news.
I also read a couple of days ago of some Ukrainian offensive moves in the Zaporizhzhia region. Overall it looks like Ukraine is poking the hornet's nest in some places now to get information on their defenses before their counter offensive later.

How do they anchor their left flank if they have to withdraw several Km from the Dniporo?