How close are Newcastle to a title challenge?

[Pronewbie]

Unless they make 3 world class additions to their squad, I don't even think they'll qualify for the CL next season.

However, considering their squad before the Saudi takeover, I'd say fair-play to them for achieving a top 4 finish this season with their net spend of £254.8million over 2 summers.

 

[Robbie Boy]

Absolutely miles off. I think they were jammy af to even get top four, given they seemed to get penos and decisions going their way every week.

Also, Howe will be long gone before they become a remotely serious side.

 

[(...)]

Liverpool being the only team winning it recently, they are probably the closest thing to try to emulate for Newcastle.
15-16 : 8th with 60 points, main players in : Firmino, Joe Gomez
16-17 : 4th with 76 points, main players in : Mané, Wijnaldum, Matip + TAA promoted => Newcastle are here
17-18 : 4th with 75 points, main players in : Van Dijk, Salah, Robertson, Chamberlain
18-19 : 2nd with 97 points, main players in : Alisson, Keita, Fabinho
So yeah, Newcastle could be challenging in 2 seasons, but they need to be as good as Liverpool was in team building by getting in successive seasons players as good as : Mané, Salah, Van Dijk, Robertson, Alisson and Fabinho.

 

[Powderfinger]

Eddie Howe has done a great job but he built a team to get into the CL and isn't really laying the foundations of a title winner. They remind me a lot of Poch's Spurs teams - lots of top athletes doing high-intensity work, wearing teams down by pressing and physicality, but without much of a tactical plan in possession and without the technical ability throughout the side you need to break down opponents consistently. They also have five key players who are 31 or older and another few players like Willock and Joelinton that probably can't play a more technical style of football.

Beating City requires consistent domination of lesser opponents over the course of a full year and that takes ~14-15 field players who can play in that kind of suffocating side. How many do Newcastle have right now that could be part of that group in a couple years? Guimaraes, Isak, Botman and its not clear who else.

 

[surf]

They are nowhere near getting 90+ points, which is the standard these days. 75 points would be a good target next season, 80 would be outstanding. Maybe they can aim to win in 4 years, which is the centenary of their last win.

Since top 4 for CL will probably be top 5 next season, I think they can do it again (am expecting the same top 5 as this season).

 

[mav_9me]

It really depends how they spend in the summer. I wouldn’t be surprised if they fell away next year as Howe adapts to a 2 game a week schedule.

It’s a different beast when you can’t give your players a rest, have a couple of days coaching and a couple of days prepping for almost every EPL game.

They would do very well to get top 4 again next year. They are nowhere close to a title challenge. They have a quality spine but that's about it. Need a much better starting XI and then the squad for a title challenge.

 

[zbcrow15]

I feel like they will need to definitely strengthen their squad to be able to cover the additional games that come with the CL and challenging for the cups. Longstaff and the likes similar to him cannot play consistently in PL and CL to have a shot at staying in the CL.

 

[glasgow 21]

What I don't quite get about Newcastle is the narrative peddled by a few journalists I've heard saying they play nice football. I've seen them play a few times, and not once have I thought they were particularly pleasing on the eye. Did I just catch the wrong games?

No you didn't , They were a street bully team and got away with a lot of shithousery. I have a feeling that midweek games will have a huge affect on them. They certainly wont get the 10% advantage whist playing midweek and then like the rest of us they will have fresher teams giving them a harder game. No doubt though a few more qualification for CL and my analogy will be neutralised. Next year is crucial in both Utd and Newcastle projects

 

[izec]

3 years

 

[IrishRedDevil]

Lets see how they cope playing 2 games a week.
They won't make top 4.
We will smash them next season.

 

[Big Ben Foster]

They can challenge next season if they make the right moves this summer. Don't expect them to win it just yet though.

 

[mav_9me]

Liverpool being the only team winning it recently, they are probably the closest thing to try to emulate for Newcastle.
15-16 : 8th with 60 points, main players in : Firmino, Joe Gomez
16-17 : 4th with 76 points, main players in : Mané, Wijnaldum, Matip + TAA promoted => Newcastle are here
17-18 : 4th with 75 points, main players in : Van Dijk, Salah, Robertson, Chamberlain
18-19 : 2nd with 97 points, main players in : Alisson, Keita, Fabinho
So yeah, Newcastle could be challenging in 2 seasons, but they need to be as good as Liverpool was in team building by getting in successive seasons players as good as : Mané, Salah, Van Dijk, Robertson, Alisson and Fabinho.

Very good post.

That's the hardest part. Retaining their top 4 is a huge challenge. And then they will need to replicate Liverpools excellent transfers.
Add to that Klopp is a couple of levels better than Howe.

Definitely don't see it happening in 2 or 3 seasons.

 

[Red in STL]

Kinda wondering if anyone is close to challenging City, unless things start to unravel there for some reason I can't see. Maybe in 2-3 years things will be different.

The riches of the PL compared to the rest of Europe means that there are at least 6 clubs now in the group behind with lots of means at their disposal. Right now Newcastle are just one of those which means each year it will be tough to qualify for the CL etc. Same for us, though that could change quite a bit if the Qataris buy us, and Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea if they stop being feckwits, Spurs. None are really close to City's level on the pitch right now though.

If City win the CL this year we'll have to see if their players still have the desire they currently have, this was where SAF teams excelled and others fell by the wayside

 

[captaincantona]

Newcastle had a very similar run to arsenal imo. They benefited from still being - not great in the eyes of the opposition.

Liverpool and City competed against teams whose sole aim during 90 minutes is to frustrate them and to stay at 0-0 for as long as possible. The fear factor they have/had actually starts to work against them as teams become harder and harder to break down and less interested in playing football.

Newcastle and Arsenal appear, at least in terms of their threats and dominance in games, to be beatable. Opposition managers didnt completely set up to neutralise them and so it played into their hands - they got away with it this season - teams will play more cautiously against them in future - sure read Dean Smiths comments about how Leicester set up. That’s when you separate the decent from the great.

Anyway, I doubt either side will find next season as easy as this one. Expect Newcastle to be top 4 contenders without ever threatening to win it.

 

[TheLord]

I reckon they'll keep finishing second in the League, starting next season, until Pep leaves City, and then it's anyone's guess.

 

[the_box]

Barring a city/psg-esque spree - which everyone seems to think is a given but I don't - it'll take more than a few seasons.3-4 years, minimum.

The issues are that we 1) don't have great quality in depth and 2) some of our best XI now - Trippier, Schar, Wilson, ASM, Almiron - will start to see age and injury take their toll as well, and will need to be addressed.

 

[Ish]

What I don't quite get about Newcastle is the narrative peddled by a few journalists I've heard saying they play nice football. I've seen them play a few times, and not once have I thought they were particularly pleasing on the eye. Did I just catch the wrong games?

Nah I think you’re spot on. Also, an extremely physical side and loves some gamesmanship as well - which is a seemingly interesting contrast against Howe at Bournemouth - seemed to be able to organise a great attacking side but generally ended up struggling to organise a defence (yes, i know this Newcastle side has more quality at the back but they also have more quality up top, yet they’re just extremely functional and not expansive). Maybe Howe’s adapted. Who knows.

 

[Lecland07]

Not really getting the criticism of their play. They dominated most teams in the league and ended up taking a large amount of points.

Their team isn't just built to get top four; they weren't far off winning the league cup.

They do need more players, but that is completely understandable considering it has only been one and a half seasons. They have gone beyond everyone's expectations this season. I can't believe that anyone thought that Newcastle would get top four this season.

They are not the only team in need of players, though. Chelsea, Manchester United, Tottenham, Liverpool and Arsenal all need new players.

 

[Rooney in Paris]

Not really getting the criticism of their play. They dominated most teams in the league and ended up taking a large amount of points.

You can "dominate" by being ugly and time waste, which is the feeling I got every time I watched them.

 

[the_box]

People enjoy oversimplifying too much when it comes to describing teams. You're either Bolton under Allardyce levels of shithousery or you're the unstoppable attacking menace of Pep's Barca.

Because we have a good defensive record, we're clearly the first. Just a boring, boring side that doesn't play nice football which is why we've scored 67 goals this season, ahead of your lot and spurs.

Absolute weapons

 

[Mb194dc]

Nowhere near City, so a long way. They'll be around top 4 now though. Got the cash and some stability by the look of it. Will probably win a cup in next few seasons.

 

[Todd]

They'll have a harder go of it next season. Need to flesh out their squad now that they're in Europe. Aside from that, they play ugly football. A high work-rate can only take you so far. I could see them going out in the group stage in CL, honestly.

Also, I expect Liverpool to be in the mix from the start next season, and Chelsea might even get their shit together. If there's an odd team out in the battle for top 4 next season I expect it's Newcastle.

 

[Nou_Camp99]

They are replacing Spurs in the big 6 conversation now I reckon, especially if Kane leaves.

Title talk is very premature. Even finishing top 4 again next season isn't a sure thing when they have to juggle extra games midweek.

 

[Rojofiam]

They are far off. Need like 8-10 first team quality players to challenge and I suspect it won't be with Howe when they mount their first title challenge.

Think they aren't finishing top 4 next season. There's gonna be a few top 4 - 7 finishes before they become a regular title contender IMO.

 

[Red in STL]

They'll have a harder go of it next season. Need to flesh out their squad now that they're in Europe. Aside from that, they play ugly football. A high work-rate can only take you so far. I could see them going out in the group stage in CL, honestly.

Also, I expect Liverpool to be in the mix from the start next season, and Chelsea might even get their shit together. If there's an odd team out in the battle for top 4 next season I expect it's Newcastle.

Unless we buy a striker that odd one out will be United!

 

[DJ_21]

Mad how they even got top 4 this year without spending massively or on big players. Obviously it helped that Liverpool and Chelsea were so bad. Think they have to improve in the summer with 3/4 quality additions to get back to back CL.

 

[DJ_21]

They'll have a harder go of it next season. Need to flesh out their squad now that they're in Europe. Aside from that, they play ugly football. A high work-rate can only take you so far. I could see them going out in the group stage in CL, honestly.

Also, I expect Liverpool to be in the mix from the start next season, and Chelsea might even get their shit together. If there's an odd team out in the battle for top 4 next season I expect it's Newcastle.

I wouldn’t say they play ugly football. They’re quite entertaining. They batter most teams they play. If you mean ugly as in time waste etc then you’re right. It would depend on who they get in their CL group on where they finish.

 

[Alfie092]

3-4 more seasons minimum before being able to have a squad in place to challenge for the league and have a thick enough squad to compete in the CL and other domestic cups.

A lot of their existing starting 11 players are not CL quality players, even though we have to admit Newcastle and Howe have done a tremendous job this season. However, Liverpool and Chelsea will be back for sure. So it instantly makes their short-term priority focusing on establishing themselves as a guaranteed CL team.

 

[Ghostrider318]

Itll be interesting to see how they handle multiple cup competitions. They definitely have the money to have 2 squads like city. Their playing style is high tempo / high press which is sustainable when you only have 1 game a week.

 

[Red in STL]

Mad how they even got top 4 this year without spending massively or on big players. Obviously it helped that Liverpool and Chelsea were so bad. Think they have to improve in the summer with 3/4 quality additions to get back to back CL.

What you need are players that play together as a team, they don't have to be big players, Leicester won the PL doing that

 

[Zen86]

They’re not far from challenging City. One or two seasons.

 

[Rojofiam]

They’re not far from challenging City. One or two seasons.

How? Look at their squad. Which of their players have the ability to become a key piece for a team challenging for the title? Trippier, Botman, Guimaraes and Isak. That's 4 players.

They also won't be able to sustain a title challenge with the style of football they play.

 

[Rhyme Animal]

They’re not far from challenging City. One or two seasons.

Wtf are you on about here Zen?

Utd could well finish above them this season!

Unless they spend very well (maybe a Kane etc), I think they’ll struggle next season with Liverpool and Chelsea back in the mix.

 

[Zen86]

How? Look at their squad. Which of their players have the ability to become a key piece for a team challenging for the title? Trippier, Botman, Guimaraes and Isak. That's 4 players.

They also won't be able to sustain a title challenge with the style of football they play.

Wtf are you on about here Zen?

Utd could well finish above them this season!

Unless they spend very well (maybe a Kane etc), I think they’ll struggle next season with Liverpool and Chelsea back in the mix.

Because they’ll spend a shit ton of money and anyone who doesn’t cut the mustard will be gone. Getting CL football makes it all the easier for them to bring in players.

 

[Rojofiam]

Because they’ll spend a shit ton of money and anyone who doesn’t cut the mustard will be gone. Getting CL football makes it all the easier for them to bring in players.

1 or 2 years is still not enough time even if they change their whole squad.

 

[Righteous Steps]

I don’t think this is correct anymore. There’s been two different Newcastle’s this season really. First half of the season, they were solid, hard to beat and just tried to nick wins. In the later stage of the season, they’ve really played like a top 4 side, dominating smaller sides, having loads of the ball and killing teams off when leading games. They absolutely battered Brighton last week, probably the most any team has this season. Hammered Everton, Spurs and West Ham. They’re a totally different side now to the first half of the season.


However, I think they’ll struggle next season unless they switch up a lot of their team. Not having a full week off will hurt them with their squad. Their starting 11 also isn’t that great, Howe has them playing well above their level, not sure that they’ll sustain it unless they invest.

They're the exact same side really, just lucky to have a couple number 9's in good form, they had like 30% possession against Brighton, they play like a Mourinho or Simeone side.

 

[Chief123]

The bookies having Newcastle down as 2nd favourites for next seasons title is a bit ridiculous.

Liverpool will still have a better chance at the title than Newcastle.

 

[Righteous Steps]

Because they’ll spend a shit ton of money and anyone who doesn’t cut the mustard will be gone. Getting CL football makes it all the easier for them to bring in players.

All this matters less r you need a generational manager to push City till the end, the problem is there aren't many out there, maybe De Zerbi proves to be in time, but i can see him staying at Brighton for at least another couple years.

 

[Oscar Bonavena]

My hunch is they'll struggle next season with the added burden of midweek European football. It's something Howe and most of their players have never had to contend with. Even with an influx of additional players to strengthen the squad, they're still dealing with the additional travelling and less time to prepare for games.

A good problem to have you might say, but a problem nonetheless!

When I say struggle, I mean around the 6th, 7th, 8th mark, especially as I expect Chelsea and Liverpool to improve next season.

As for challenging City in the short to medium term, I can't see it while Pep stays there. He has the PL by the balls at the moment, it's going to be the Bundesliga for the next 5 years at least (and practically has been for the past 5 too).

 

[Von Mistelroum]

The money and underhanded tactics of City will prevent a serious challenge for a while, but once the PL let City off from their huge and glaringly obvious financial doping then it's possible that City's owners will take this as the green light to follow suit and before you know it, they'll be signing Osimhen for '£20m' on '£100k per week' *wink wink* and they might challenge then.