Recent content by massi83

  1. Wuhan coronavirus / Covid-19 Virus (No tin foil hat silliness or memes please)

    The death rate for flu isn't constant among different age groups. The chance of dying is a lot higher for people aged 20-40 from covid compared to flu. Really, really small in both cases obviously.
  2. Wuhan coronavirus / Covid-19 Virus (No tin foil hat silliness or memes please)

    Sure, but many people will confuse this as random sampling. It is useful but random sampling would be a lot more interesting. Still helpful data obviously.
  3. Wuhan coronavirus / Covid-19 Virus (No tin foil hat silliness or memes please)

    Look at the breakdown from amount of tests and the amount of positive results, from both government and from decode. They are totally and utterly different. If there were many asymptotic cases, decode would have a "better" success rate. And I believe there are 20-50% asymptotic cases. Finnish...
  4. Wuhan coronavirus / Covid-19 Virus (No tin foil hat silliness or memes please)

    Iceland data is good exercise. But it is totally skewed. You can see that almost all of the cases found are from government testing, and DeCode is not finding almost any cases, because their testing criteria is totally different. So these numbers can not be compared to other countries. Also age...
  5. Wuhan coronavirus / Covid-19 Virus (No tin foil hat silliness or memes please)

    Do you have links to studies about the asymptotic %. I know of the DP and Vo Euganeo, any others? I do agree with your assessments. But would like to share more studies
  6. Wuhan coronavirus / Covid-19 Virus (No tin foil hat silliness or memes please)

    It is not an upper bound. Deaths lag behind, so it could easily rise. People were saying the same thing about S Korea when it was 0.4%, now it is well over 1%. For the record i think true CFR will be around 0.5%-1%. But Germany doesn't provide an upper limit at the moment like you claim
  7. Wuhan coronavirus / Covid-19 Virus (No tin foil hat silliness or memes please)

    :lol: You do realise they are testing people with symptoms and people in contact with infected. Not random sampling.
  8. Wuhan coronavirus / Covid-19 Virus (No tin foil hat silliness or memes please)

    So, there are 30.700 cases in Lombardy. Let's say real number is 20x bigger=600k. 10M people in Lombardy, so that makes 6%. Let's say in the end 30% of people will get it this year. So 5 times more infections to come. Some calculations like this, don't think about my actual numbers too much.
  9. Wuhan coronavirus / Covid-19 Virus (No tin foil hat silliness or memes please)

    Are there any estimates how many people have had it in total in Lombardia and in italy? Are they 5%/10%/20%40% through the whole epidemia (in numbers, not time)
  10. Wuhan coronavirus / Covid-19 Virus (No tin foil hat silliness or memes please)

    Nah. It is bcs their cases are from travelling to Italy and Tyrol. So infected are younger, where as in Italy, Spain and US it was going longer unnoticed, so also old people got infected. Germany's FCR will rise. And Italy only tests people that are quite sick. They don't have time to test...
  11. Wuhan coronavirus / Covid-19 Virus (No tin foil hat silliness or memes please)

    Probably haven't updated all the cases. And there is variation how many tests are done in a day and so on. Have to look at it with 2-3 day intervals. The numbers in germany will still increase for a while. Measures take 10-14 days to have an effect
  12. Wuhan coronavirus / Covid-19 Virus (No tin foil hat silliness or memes please)

    Younger people got infected from travelling. So their death rate will increase a bit in couple of weeks. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4 Can see demographics here.
  13. Wuhan coronavirus / Covid-19 Virus (No tin foil hat silliness or memes please)

    Yes. But this kills mainly (not only) very old and sick. There aren't as many old people in Africa
  14. Wuhan coronavirus / Covid-19 Virus (No tin foil hat silliness or memes please)

    Sure. There will still be less deaths proportionally than in Italy
  15. Wuhan coronavirus / Covid-19 Virus (No tin foil hat silliness or memes please)

    Median age in Africa is 20. 1 under 20 died in China. So because of demographics they have it easier. median age in italy is 46 I think.