Westminster Politics

berbatrick

Renaissance Man
Scout
Joined
Oct 22, 2010
Messages
21,609
Well, the analysis is even worse than I figured then. Since it must be self evident that the so-called outliers would probably not be outliers if the model added data regarding, for example, historical voting patterns. They are trying to predict an area variable using only data based on the individuals that live there, as if the areas themselves have no important differences. I mean, you wouldn't try to predict the economic growth of towns based only on aggregated data on their residents whilst ignoring important differences in the structure of the economies across the towns, would you?
The analysis does a good job as the graph shows.
Do you understand the underlying basis of that argument? It is that the Tory party (the guy who released it is a Tory) will not try to change people's conditions to make them into Tory voters. People with more wealth generally tend to vote Tory, but giving poorer people money isn't what they will do. Instead they will focus on the outliers instead of the underlying model, so they will try and change the culture of a place, getting rid of anti-Tory stigma before trying their hand at economic policy.
 

RedChip

Full Member
Joined
Mar 1, 2014
Messages
2,202
Location
In Lee
The analysis does a good job as the graph shows.
Do you understand the underlying basis of that argument?
It is that the Tory party (the guy who released it is a Tory) will not try to change people's conditions to make them into Tory voters. People with more wealth generally tend to vote Tory, but giving poorer people money isn't what they will do. Instead they will focus on the outliers instead of the underlying model, so they will try and change the culture of a place, getting rid of anti-Tory stigma before trying their hand at economic policy.
Seems like we could argue all day about the bolded part, even if the rest of your post makes sense. So I am going to leave it at that.
 

Don't Kill Bill

Full Member
Joined
May 14, 2006
Messages
5,668
Why would it be Corbyn leading a caretaker government though? Why would the Lib Dems refuse to block no deal? :houllier:

I don't think Corbyn has a strong claim to be leader of a caretaker government. No Tory would vote for Corbyn. So a Corbyn led caretaker government is a no-show.

When Italy had their equivalent of a hung parliament, with the two largest parties (centre-right party "League" and anti-establishment party "five star") not getting enough support to form a government without the other, they eventually settled and put an independent candidate in as PM. (Of course that might be about to collapse, but that's neither here nor there). Corbyn (was) a Eurosceptic and now he's a Euro-gives-a-feck. I give my cat's opinion on Brexit more weight than his.

If there was ever to be a "Stop-No-Deal" caretaker government, it would have to be run by someone respected by enough Labour and Tory MPs (and SNP, and Lib Dems) to temporarily govern.

Keir Starmer, Jo Swinson, Philip Hammond, Rory Stewart, Ruth Davidson, Tom Watson, Yvette Cooper, Justine Greening, Oliver Letwin all have various claims to being the best candidate, all with their own flaws.

Or possibly they could pick a Lord to become PM for the first time in 100 years.
That is probably nonsense as he would be the next person asked and I don't think anyone else could form a government if he doesn't. If he is pushed to allow someone else to do it the pro Corbyn MP's would probably abstain or vote against any one else. Pro BJ + DUP + Corbynistas+ brexit/honour the vote Labour Mp's is most likely more votes than any other coalition. Even an emergency all woman cabinet.
 

Sweet Square

Full Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2013
Messages
23,586
Location
The Zone
Had a quick skim at that earlier and thought it was interesting - I wonder how much of this is due to the sheer toxicity of Thatcher's legacy in some parts of the country?

I'm thinking of Scotland specifically here: it wasn't exactly a bastion of Toryism before she came into power and after she left, but the extent to which her legacy damaged the Tory brand up here meant you had Labour/Lib Dems winning seats which, demographically and economically, would go to a conservative party that tends to win in rural areas in most countries. And even though they mounted a recovery in 2017, they were often just about winning seats a conservatively minded party should ideally be sweeping up. I'd imagine it's the same in parts of England where some Labour voters may be willing to defect to BXP (and formerly UKIP) but still can't bring themselves to vote Tory.
Agree. I image the only way the tories could appeal to these people is through One nation toryism/British nationalism but

. If pisses off more liberal tories

. The one nation stuff at the moment is all noise, there not any actual policy. And just looking at who is in and working for the cabinet. Thatcherism is still a live a kicking(May did the same thing during her time).

. Even with a image change the tories are still appealing to old voters.
 

berbatrick

Renaissance Man
Scout
Joined
Oct 22, 2010
Messages
21,609
Workers Seize the Shipyard That Built the Titanic, Plan to Make Renewable Energy There
The closure of the last shipyard in Belfast would end centuries of ship building in the city. A group of workers are demanding the U.K. nationalize the yards.
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...VbFZn9qnWzZasv4QWnHCCmYeh3a0OO-BuWlJ6JDzpCLBw
Late last month, 130 ship builders, steel workers, welders, and riveters seized control of the storied Belfast shipyard that built the Titanic in 1909. More than two weeks later, they're still there, and say they won't be leaving until the docks are nationalized and are used to produce renewable energy infrastructure.

The docks had moved to shut down after their troubled Norwegian parent company, Dolphin Drilling, failed to find a buyer, but militant workers have refused to relinquish the site, including its two towering yellow cranes, known as Sampson and Goliath—landmarks that dominate the Belfast skyline.


The closure of the shipyard, once an emblem of Britain’s industrial power with over 30,000 workers, would mark the end of centuries of shipbuilding in the city. But workers from Harland & Wolff are demanding that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson nationalize the shipyards and create new jobs in renewable energy there.

Some activists involved in the occupation have cited Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the Green New Deal as their inspiration. In recent years, the workers at Harland & Wolff have built parts for wind turbines. They argue that renewable energy jobs would serve not only as a sustainable solution, but also a practical one because of their skill set.
...
2016:
Shadow chancellor John McDonnell will also advocate giving workers the first chance to buy a company that is being dissolved, sold or floated
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/20/labour-backs-employees-right-own-shares-workplace

...

[Trump] delivered during a rant about how construction workers would hate having to build computers, explaining, “You don’t want to make widgets, right? You don’t want to make those little things, with your beautiful hands.”
...

All power to the S̶o̶v̶i̶e̶t̶s̶ workers' councils of plants that are shutting down
 

rcoobc

Not as crap as eferyone thinks
Joined
Jul 28, 2010
Messages
41,687
Location
C-137
That is probably nonsense as he would be the next person asked and I don't think anyone else could form a government if he doesn't. If he is pushed to allow someone else to do it the pro Corbyn MP's would probably abstain or vote against any one else. Pro BJ + DUP + Corbynistas+ brexit/honour the vote Labour Mp's is most likely more votes than any other coalition. Even an emergency all woman cabinet.
I should have said, I don't think Corbyn has a strong claim to be leader of an anti-no-deal-brexit caretaker government.

He will obviously have the strongest candidacy to form a government after a Conservative government collapse - but I don't believe for a second he'd get the numbers.
 

berbatrick

Renaissance Man
Scout
Joined
Oct 22, 2010
Messages
21,609
parliament is run by an algorithm designed to keep the worst people in power
 

Sweet Square

Full Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2013
Messages
23,586
Location
The Zone
Workers Seize the Shipyard That Built the Titanic, Plan to Make Renewable Energy There
The closure of the last shipyard in Belfast would end centuries of ship building in the city. A group of workers are demanding the U.K. nationalize the yards.
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...VbFZn9qnWzZasv4QWnHCCmYeh3a0OO-BuWlJ6JDzpCLBw


...
2016:


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/20/labour-backs-employees-right-own-shares-workplace

...


...

All power to the S̶o̶v̶i̶e̶t̶s̶ workers' councils of plants that are shutting down
:devil::drool:
 

Mr Pigeon

Illiterate Flying Rat
Scout
Joined
Mar 27, 2014
Messages
26,256
Location
bin
Agree. I image the only way the tories could appeal to these people is through One nation toryism/British nationalism but

. If pisses off more liberal tories

. The one nation stuff at the moment is all noise, there not any actual policy. And just looking at who is in and working for the cabinet. Thatcherism is still a live a kicking(May did the same thing during her time).

. Even with a image change the tories are still appealing to old voters.
Tories appealing to the masses in Scotland looks to be impossible at the moment. We're too feral militant sophistimacated.
 

sun_tzu

The Art of Bore
Joined
Aug 23, 2010
Messages
19,536
Location
Still waiting for the Youthquake

I think most won't be surprised to know I'm not the biggest fan of Mr Jones

But still stuff like this needs to be clamped down on

I do worry about things getting out of hand during the impending referendum / election
 

Mr Pigeon

Illiterate Flying Rat
Scout
Joined
Mar 27, 2014
Messages
26,256
Location
bin

I think most won't be surprised to know I'm not the biggest fan of Mr Jones

But still stuff like this needs to be clamped down on

I do worry about things getting out of hand during the impending referendum / election
We had a sitting politician executed in the street in no small part to rhetoric fuelled extremist views and still these cnuts follow the same playbook. It'll need to get worse than Jo Cox before you get anything other than lip service from people like Johnson.
 

711

Verified Bird Expert
Scout
Joined
Dec 10, 2007
Messages
24,254
Location
Don't sign old players and cast offs
https://medium.com/@nick.barlow/the-centrist-fallacy-43434642cb00

A good analysis of what centrism means in practice, to people who describe themselves as such
I think to many the word centrist is more about what they aren't rather than what they are, that is they may naturally tend to the left but are not marxists, or to the right but are not Thatcherites. Not sure the questions allowed for that. It doesn't help that the description Liberal means different things to different people, for instance I ignore the American influence, but to younger people it's the norm. It's telling where the author says 'liberal is in the name after all', yeah, but does it mean to them what it means to the author?
 

Sweet Square

Full Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2013
Messages
23,586
Location
The Zone

I don't think it will work at all(Thankfully). The people in the US who lap up this culture war shite aren't poor working class white(Not to mention the countless differences between the US and the UK) but suburban boomers with nothing to do all day except to watch television.
 
Last edited:

Vidic_In_Moscow

rectum-faced pygmy
Joined
Sep 19, 2010
Messages
19,578
Location
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Supports
i stink
Seeing videos of feeble middle class people chanting Jeremy Corbyns name to the tune of a football chant is the funniest thing in 2019 so far.
 

sun_tzu

The Art of Bore
Joined
Aug 23, 2010
Messages
19,536
Location
Still waiting for the Youthquake
Posted at 8:338:33
Hammond vows 'fight of a lifetime' if deselected

Today Programme

BBC Radio 4

Philip Hammond has said he was readopted as the Conservative candidate for his constituency last night, despite the PM warning Tory MPs who rebelled against the government that they would be deselected.

Mr Hammond said he does not believe the government would have the power to stop him from running as a Conservative candidate for Runnymede and Weybridge.

"There would certainly be the fight of a lifetime if they tried to," he added.

He said the issue could "possibly" become a legal battle.

"This is my party. I have been a member of this party for 45 years. I am going to defend my party against incomers, entryists, who are trying to turn it from a broad church into a narrow faction."
well that's going to be interesting - legal challenges over de-selection

the whole political chess would be more interesting though if it wasnt for the nagging worry of another jo cox moment in what looks like its going to be a very divisive election
 

sun_tzu

The Art of Bore
Joined
Aug 23, 2010
Messages
19,536
Location
Still waiting for the Youthquake
Can't blame her. Will be an easy pickup for Labour, was a strong remain area and they were close in 2017.
wouldnt they vote for somebody who wants to remain then - like the remain alliance candidate that will be put forward rather than the we will negotiate a currently undefined brexit deal that we may then fight for or against in a referendum candidate?
 

Hephaestus

Full Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2018
Messages
5,184
wouldnt they vote for somebody who wants to remain then - like the remain alliance candidate that will be put forward rather than the we will negotiate a currently undefined brexit deal that we may then fight for or against in a referendum candidate?
Reckon there will be a surge for the Lib Dems but they were a long way back in 2017 and it's likely to stay a two horse fight. If the choice is between a Tory who wants no-deal brexit and a Labour candidate who rules it out, the latter will likely win comfortably. Greening only just held on and she was a moderate Tory who wanted to remain.
 

Smores

Full Member
Joined
May 18, 2011
Messages
25,523
wouldnt they vote for somebody who wants to remain then - like the remain alliance candidate that will be put forward rather than the we will negotiate a currently undefined brexit deal that we may then fight for or against in a referendum candidate?
If a voter wants a referendum and Labour promise a referendum then why would they care?
 

Sweet Square

Full Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2013
Messages
23,586
Location
The Zone
They have never been the same since tasting power as a coalition.
The Orange Book from the early 2000's.

https://jacobinmag.com/2019/07/liberal-democrats-cable-davey-swinson

The foundations for Tory–Lib Dem coalition were laid in 2004 when Lib Dem–backing hedge fund boss Paul Marshall and Lib Dem MP David Laws edited the “Orange Book,” a collection of policy essays written by Nick Clegg and other leading party lights. The Orange Book aimed to pull the Lib Dems rightwards, away from what they called “soggy socialism and corporatism.” Inside, Laws called the NHS a “second-rate, centralised, state monopoly service,” and said, “private sector providers are more efficient than the NHS.” As well as arguing for “more competition within the NHS,” the authors called for more private prisons and Royal Mail privatization.

While Lib Dems claim they were a moderating influence on the Tories in coalition, their Orange Book values meant they were more than compatible as a partner. In government, the party was an enthusiastic proponent of the idea that the financial crisis had been caused by excessive government spending, turning a crisis created by bankers and speculators onto public sector workers.

But, after all, a lot of people who consider themselves progressive vote for the Lib Dems. And these policies didn’t meet with approval. After the coalition’s austerity, voters either rejected them for Labour or went for the real thing and voted Tory instead. In 2015 the Lib Dems were reduced from fifty-seven MPs to eight. In 2017, Nick Clegg himself was turfed out of parliament — before heading off to make his millions as Facebook’s head of PR (standing up, no doubt, to the company’s excesses).

The Orange Book caucus hasn’t gone away, though. The new Liberal Democratic leader Jo Swinson took over as employment minister in 2012, when he was promoted to energy minister. On her Lib Dem leadership campaign website Swinson claims that “as Minister for Employment Relations” she delivered “a fairer deal for workers.” She will, she says promisingly, “build an economy that puts people and the planet first.”

But as a minister, Swinson intensified the attack on workers’ rights. In 2012, Swinson was boasting about “the direct benefits to business of extending the qualifying period for unfair dismissal.” She then made things much worse: she introduced charges of up to £1,200 for the privilege of attending an employment tribunal, placing justice even further out of reach for workers.

In 2017 the Supreme Court decided Swinson’s fees scheme “prevents access to justice and is therefore unlawful.” The judges agreed with the long-running legal case brought by trade union Unison, who argued that the number of people going to tribunals had dropped by 79 percent because people were being priced out of justice. The government cancelled Swinson’s fees and agreed to pay back the £32 million wrongly charged to workers who made it through the maze.

This wasn’t even the full extent of Swinson’s contributions in office. In 2013, she said zero-hour contracts offered “helpful flexibility for the employee” and were a “useful tool for flexibility in employment” while ruling out introducing a ban. In fact, as minister, Swinson oversaw the introduction of new legislation formalizing flexible working hours. She also came out strongly against increasing the minimum wage, going so far as to suggest it should be frozen or even cut if there was another downturn. Maybe it’s no surprise she receives such praise from Corbyn’s staunchest opponents.

The unique conditions of Brexit are giving the Lib Dems the opportunity to rebrand as a reforming, progressive party. The truth is, they are anything but. And it’s long-past time Labour MPs who spend day after day attacking the current leadership devoted a little time to reminding people of that.