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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Buster15

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The only way a referendum should be done first is if it includes Mays deal. It would be incredibly irresponsible for the remainers in parliament to risk Boris getting this deal through just so they can roll the dice at a people's vote.
Hm. The problem with that is that May's deal is history and as you know well has been rejected soundly.
There would be some logic in the modified deal following the discussions with Labour, the Steven Kinnock option.
I am pleased that after all this time, the word compromise is being used, even by Boris.
Let's see what the final position is before deciding on the referendum options.
 

Smores

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Hm. The problem with that is that May's deal is history and as you know well has been rejected soundly.
There would be some logic in the modified deal following the discussions with Labour, the Steven Kinnock option.
I am pleased that after all this time, the word compromise is being used, even by Boris.
Let's see what the final position is before deciding on the referendum options.
It's been rejected by parliament but that's completely irrelevant in a referendum considering it'll be premised on the MPs passing the result whether they like it or not.

You could argue it being a worse deal helps the remain cause but if remain doesn't win they'll be the ones responsible for the severe economic hit we take.
 

Buster15

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It's been rejected by parliament but that's completely irrelevant in a referendum considering it'll be premised on the MPs passing the result whether they like it or not.

You could argue it being a worse deal helps the remain cause but if remain doesn't win they'll be the ones responsible for the severe economic hit we take.
I can see that. My concern would be that the May deal has become so tarnished that it could go the other way.
 

sammsky1

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Boris Johnson appears to be on the brink of reaching a Brexit deal after making major concessions to EU demands over the Irish border.
A draft treaty could now be published on Wednesday morning, according to senior British and EU sources.
It is understood that the negotiating teams have agreed in principle that there will be a customs border down the Irish Sea. The arrangement was rejected by Theresa May as a deal that no British prime minister could accept.
Johnson will still have to win over parliament – including the Democratic Unionist party and the hardline Tory Brexiters, the European Research Group – on the basis that Northern Ireland will still legally be within the UK’s customs territory.

More details soon … https://www.theguardian.com/politic...close-to-brexit-deal-after-border-concessions

@owlo @sun_tzu Will Labour and opposition vote in favour of such a deal?
 
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Berbasbullet

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So what does that mean exactly? Does it mean NI are basically still in the EU?
 

sun_tzu

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Boris Johnson appears to be on the brink of reaching a Brexit deal after making major concessions to EU demands over the Irish border.

A draft treaty could now be published on Wednesday morning, according to senior British and EU sources.
It is understood that the negotiating teams have agreed in principle that there will be a customs border down the Irish Sea. The arrangement was rejected by Theresa May as a deal that no British prime minister could accept.
Johnson will still have to win over parliament – including the Democratic Unionist party and the hardline Tory Brexiters, the European Research Group – on the basis that Northern Ireland will still legally be within the UK’s customs territory.

More details soon … https://www.theguardian.com/politic...close-to-brexit-deal-after-border-concessions


@owlo @sun_tzu Will Labour and opposition vote in favour of such a deal?
I'm not even sure a bunch of conservatives will...
May said no pm could agree to this... Will she vote for it?
I suspect most conservatives will but he will need to get a chunk of non conservative MPs...
Dup? Probably
Libs... None of them will vote for it
SNP... Again none will vote for it
Change UK or whatever... Suspect none
Labour... Well officially I'm sure it will fail their 6 tests so perhaps a few rebel but most o think vote against
Doubt it has the votes as it is
That said with an amendment saying confirmatory referendum between this deal and remain.... Well if the conservatives would back that then I'm pretty sure it would go through
 

Brownie85

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I'm not even sure a bunch of conservatives will...
May said no pm could agree to this... Will she vote for it?
I suspect most conservatives will but he will need to get a chunk of non conservative MPs...
Dup? Probably
Libs... None of them will vote for it
SNP... Again none will vote for it
Change UK or whatever... Suspect none
Labour... Well officially I'm sure it will fail their 6 tests so perhaps a few rebel but most o think vote against
Doubt it has the votes as it is
That said with an amendment saying confirmatory referendum between this deal and remain.... Well if the conservatives would back that then I'm pretty sure it would go through
The chances of said amendment getting through would be slim too. I'm betting many Labour MP's would feel like betraying their constituents if they represent a leave voting area, so i'd bet a lot of Labour MP's would abstain or vote against. Corbyn himself doesn't seem to want a referendum until Labour are in power, so i'd say such an amendment would be a non-starter.
 

sun_tzu

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The chances of said amendment getting through would be slim too. I'm betting many Labour MP's would feel like betraying their constituents if they represent a leave voting area, so i'd bet a lot of Labour MP's would abstain or vote against. Corbyn himself doesn't seem to want a referendum until Labour are in power, so i'd say such an amendment would be a non-starter.
Well official labour policy is for a referendum with remain on the ballot (albeit the other option being unicorns) ... I could see there being a lot of labour MPs voting for that and it remains to be seen how good (or bad) party whips are at keeping people in line.
Equally if Boris felt it was the only way to get his deal over the line he might back it as well.

I think it has more chance with a referendum attached than not... But even then it's not certain to pass
 

balaks

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Because NI become a de facto member of the EU, but without a say on anything.
How will that mean the EU will have more of a say over NI's laws than themselves? That is just incorrect - NI remains under UK law. EU will have a say over customs regulations which NI will need to respect but that's it.
 

sullydnl

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Because NI become a de facto member of the EU, but without a say on anything.
It seems likely that there will be some mechanism by which NI consents to this. It won't be a unilateral DUP veto as the UK essentially put forward but it will get the buy-in of the people of NI in some capacity.
 

Berbasbullet

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How will that mean the EU will have more of a say over NI's laws than themselves? That is just incorrect - NI remains under UK law. EU will have a say over customs regulations which NI will need to respect but that's it.
I see, as I said in my post when I edited it I am happy to be corrected.
 

sammsky1

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So basically we will see a reunified Ireland?

Essentially ROI will have more of a say over a lot of NI’s law than themselves them surely?
Which is why May and many One Nation Tories will never ever vote for such.

We never saw any of this being discussed during referendum campaigning period. This is 'pure cut off nose to spite face' nonsense.
 

sammsky1

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I'm not even sure a bunch of conservatives will...
May said no pm could agree to this... Will she vote for it?
I suspect most conservatives will but he will need to get a chunk of non conservative MPs...
Dup? Probably
Libs... None of them will vote for it
SNP... Again none will vote for it
Change UK or whatever... Suspect none
Labour... Well officially I'm sure it will fail their 6 tests so perhaps a few rebel but most o think vote against
Doubt it has the votes as it is
That said with an amendment saying confirmatory referendum between this deal and remain.... Well if the conservatives would back that then I'm pretty sure it would go through
Thanks!

I think Corbyn will whip his party into line for this.

How do people in Northern Ireland feel about this? I think it would provoke civil war issues a few years down the line.
 

Berbasbullet

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Which is why May and many One Nation Tories will never ever vote for such.

We never saw any of this being discussed during referendum campaigning period. This is 'pure cut off nose to spite face' nonsense.
So no chance the deal passes?
 

Smores

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He should be hung, drawn and quartered for wasting everyones fecking time
 

NWRed

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DUP not on board it seems, I don't see where the votes are for this deal

 

sullydnl

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In theory, if the EU said Johnson's deal was final, that they would not be entering into any further negotiations and that rejecting it would result in a no deal exit, could it then get enough support to pass?

Hardline Brexiteers aren't going to vote for it anyway but given that stopping no-deal is the one thing there's a clear majority for, maybe enough Labour MPs would support it in those circumstances? I mean how could anti-no-deal MPs justify voting against a deal if the EU makes it clear that doing so will definitely result in no deal?
 

sun_tzu

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that would just be handing Boris a huge victory, politically. i can't see it. not without some kind of concession.
I guess the plus side for Corbyn would be
1. It would make the next election focussed on issues other than brexit
2. He get the UK out of Europe without having to somehow get it past the labour membership
 

sun_tzu

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I mean how could anti-no-deal MPs justify voting against a deal if the EU makes it clear that doing so will definitely result in no deal?
Because they can force an extension which opens up the possibility of a second referendum and remain / revoke which many would prefer to leaving with a deal
Back to the old problem there is a majority in parliament against every option and a majority for none
 

sullydnl

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Because they can force an extension which opens up the possibility of a second referendum and remain / revoke which many would prefer to leaving with a deal
Back to the old problem there is a majority in parliament against every option and a majority for none
The UK can't force an extension if the EU don't agree to one though, which is my point. What would happen if the EU said that they would refuse to grant any further extensions in the event of Johnson's deal being rejected? Therefore giving MPs a black & white choice: this deal or no deal?

Not saying the EU would do this, just asking whether it would be enough to get the deal through.
 

cyberman

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Boris isn't conceding this without having the votes somewhere. It's too much of a climb down.
The DUP are being shown the door it seems
 

sun_tzu

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The UK can't force an extension if the EU don't agree to one though, which is my point. What would happen if the EU said that they would refuse to grant any further extensions in the event of Johnson's deal being rejected? Therefore giving MPs a black & white choice: this deal or no deal?

Not saying the EU would do this, just asking whether it would be enough to get the deal through.
Because it's not really in the EU's interest.... They would much rather avoid no deal and granting an extension that allows for a ge / referendum would seem to make a better deal for them more likley
I think the deadline for them is June (next 7 year finance cycle for the EU) so they won't reach the take it or feck off option till around then.
 

sun_tzu

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Smores

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Boris isn't conceding this without having the votes somewhere. It's too much of a climb down.
The DUP are being shown the door it seems
Unless he doesn't see any plan that could get through so he's made a concession to the EU just to get a deal that he can use as an electoral weapon against parliament in the coming GE. The GE sounds like it'll have to be next year now btw.

Boris doesn't care about brexit he cares about keeping office.
 

sammsky1

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Because they can force an extension which opens up the possibility of a second referendum and remain / revoke which many would prefer to leaving with a deal
Back to the old problem there is a majority in parliament against every option and a majority for none
The majority in Parliament would vote to revoke in a blind vote. Or at worst for a 2nd referendum.