Exactly this. This would be brexit part two and I really don't see how Scotland comes out of it any better whichever way you try and spin it. The whole Scottish independence idea seems based on the expectation of getting everything they desire from the Union with the added bonus of being able to more align to the EU (if the rest of the Union leaves). It's a total fantasy when you consider how brexit negotiations have gone. If Scotland insists it wishes to leave then they will be on their own.
Nicola Sturgeon and Scottish Independence
- Thread starter altodevil
- Start date
Not being funny but the alternative seems to be that we're on our own anyway, like large parts of England, Wales and Northern Ireland who are represented by a Government who desire a different Britain to what we vote for.
Nobody should be saying that it'll be easy, but when there's a clear lack of representation from your own Government in Westminster and a feeling of alienation and often ridicule, when compared to Holyrood which for all its faults still acts like it gives a shit about the country, the argument isn't just an economic one. To only see that side of it is one of the biggest reasons why we're at this point in the first place.
You hit the nail on the head here.
Don't forget the wafers mate! I love that Tunnoch's is my town's claim to famePah, it just means we get to keep all the Tunnocks Tea Cakes and battered Mars bars to ourselves
Wait a second... Battered Tea Cakes. Alto; how much money do you have available for a wee start up business I'm planning?!?!
I can easily see the vote being completely different this time. Brexit has totally changed the game.
Agreed on all points mate. I voted to Remain last time but I can certainly understand people's anger up here about the absolute clusterfeck that has been the last 3 years. No idea what's going to happen moving forward.
Agreed.
If it goes ahead, I'd be pretty surprised if we voted Remain again. Amongst people my age (the 18-24) gen, a decent shift from Remain to Leave has definitely come since the whole Brexit fiasco. Would definitely be a sizable number that would be swayed by that alone.
As someone who bet on Trump and Leave winning, I'll be very surprised if Scotland don't vote Yes in the next IndyRef. Brexit sealed the deal on that.
They wouldn't meet any of the qualifications for the EU entry/Euro so initially would definitely keep the pound. But plans have been floated by the SNP for Scotland to have it's own currency eventually, dunno how realistic that is though
Um no they won't dunno where you get from
The Airse. One Pound = One Airse. Dig into your back pocket and grab a handful of airses. English petrol station refuses to take it? "It's legal tender. Airse." 1 Airse Note has a picture of Boris Johnson being used as a water raft down a flume by Alex Salmond and Sir Billy Connolly. Pence denomination would be called the Pence and have a picture of Mike Pence on it being tag teamed by a group of greased up clones of Willie from The Simpsons.
I endorse this
This thread is relevant again I guess.
What kind of options will they have for forcing another election, given that Johnson will almost certainly try to block it?
What kind of options will they have for forcing another election, given that Johnson will almost certainly try to block it?
Not much for the next 5 years at least. Best they can hope for now is seeing the next term of Tory governance boost their support and mandate for independence and hope the government from 2024, whoever they are, offer them another go at it.
I think it's a possibility again, regarding another referendum. Having gained a number of seats up on the last election, the results show how clearly the country has voted and while not everyone who has voted SNP will agree with another referendum, Nicola Sturgeon believes she has enough to say to Boris that the results show the country should have the choice. It's up to the Conservatives now to either dispel the idea out of hand (in my opinion, the most likely outcome) or to allow another referendum at some point in the next 12 months.
Best of luck to them. Sturgeon's campaign should be pretty cheap and effective. Just borrow every Brexit advert and argument ever and replace The EU with United Kingdom
I think it's a possibility but not for a while at least. As I've said in the election thread, there is a lot of anger up here today.
The SNP should just use the same Tory slogans for Brexit against them - sovereignty, the people’s will etc. They have the mandate for it.
If the Scots get independence Im moving up there!
Definitely on but I don't see a vote happening during the next phase of Brexit like the SNP seem to want. Any vote will happen when Brexit is complete which could be 2-3 years away. Scottish people should vote knowing the full picture of the relationship with UK and the EU and whether to break it up.
I support their right to vote again after Brexit.
I support their right to vote again after Brexit.
A lot of talk that Johnson won't allow a referendum, but I don't see what is to stop Scotland arranging it's own. I get Westminster would declare it to have no legal meaning, but it would be a strong statement nonetheless, and we saw how powerful such a statement can be last night. When it comes to it I reckon Johnson would have a better chance of getting the result he wanted in a referendum that he was in control of rather than one he was not.
Yep, I've heard talk of the SNP taking it to the Supreme Court, but I'm not sure if they would have any legal leg to stand on to force a referendum. Perhaps @owlo knows a bit more.
What happens to the SNP if they lose another referendum though? Do they become redundant or do they just carry on and start asking for a 3rd Referendum?
I don't buy for one second that they even want a referendum now. I think it would be quite easy to run a campaign to defeat it. I think the SNP would rather let Bojo's motley crew rule over them for a while whilst cranking up the anti-Westminster rhetoric.
I'll join you
I am all in favour of a non tory deep fried anything loving country!I'll join you
They were very careful in 2017 to campaign on a message of 'we will ask for a referendum when the time is ready', ie when they thought they could win one, as it appeared very touch and go at that time. Since then the message of Scotland being forced to leave the EU against it's will has grown stronger and stronger, they believe it would swing a referendum to Independence.
Personally I think it's up to the Scots, whatever they decide is fine by me.
Would you be surprised if the Tories decided to let Scotland go? It’s got no value to them politically and devolution has already given them less control over legislation and finances. Boris is only interested in the south east of England, the rest is an unwanted distraction to him.
I don't think the Tories would actively want to lose Scotland, that would be against their tradition. It won't do them any harm electorally if it happens, but that's a separate issue. Also Johnson will want to go down well in history, and the PM that lost Scotland will be on a par historically with the king that lost America. No, worse actually.
Let them go. Imagine being stuck with us and having Tory govenrnments imposed on you time after time.
It's almost like the No side didn't strongly campaign on EU membership by stating the only way to remain in the EU was to vote No. That was a huge issue for people at the time, because as has since been proven, Scotland wants to be in the EU. It's impossible to tell how many people would've voted No based on that pledge but it'll be sizeable. Since then England has taken us out of the EU anyway despite us voting to overwhelmingly stay. It would be disingenuous to act like that isn't grounds for dismissing the once in a generation soundbite.
Who was that again......
George the third. Though he had health problems to be fair. Elizabeth technically lost Calais, but she took the blame for Mary, and after a bit we realised they were bleeding French anyway.
Who would actually run the campaign against it though? Tories are still chronically unpopular up here and there biggest names now are no marks. Labour are basically dead in the water.
From an English point of view, the status quo is clearly unfair on Scotland but, if they secede, then it’s basically permanent Tory government here.
Ruth Davidson, Gordon Brown, these types of people I would expect.
How would Scotland pay for their deficit? Wasn't there calculations on $100 barrel oil and what with climate changes issues would that still be possible? I'm all in favour of self determination although i do have to bite my lip when i think of all the Brexit worries the SNP have but non for losing their biggest market. Also the EU issue was true then and would probably be true if they tried to enter, Do you not worry the Spanish would block entry as it would threaten their position with Catalonia?
Ruth Davidson's taken a massive step back from politics and Gordon Brown's a bit of an irrelevance at this point. That's to mention if he'd even want to since he's been away from politics for a decade. I think they can bring back one or two former big names from time to time but you need current names fighting for the unionist side, otherwise it becomes hard to convince people to stay in a system when they've not got any prominent names to actually lead the campaign to convince Scots to do so.
Independence is economically challenging but I was looking at it from a political point of view - they are being dragged out of the EU by an English nationalist party with no regard for their views. As for re-joining the EU, I don’t know how Spain would react but the circumstances are different to 2014 in terms of Scotland’s reasons for wanting to leave the Union.
The other point to note is that by the popular vote, most people did not vote for the SNP in Scotland. The polls up to the election have shown a slight preference to remain in the UK as well (that could change a bit now admittedly). I'm sure you could put together a team to that would be able to reach out to a lot of people up there.
Polls have also shown that around half of Labour members support independence - while some SNP voters would be No supporters, I imagine the figure either way probably wasn't far off the 50% mark.
I struggle to see the SNP mounting consistent poll leads for indy - I suspect we'll see a brief bounce before it settles at the 45-50 mark again.
But I think where the SNP could be boosted would be a campaign. I just struggle to see an even remotely successful unionist campaign if it's led by people who aren't active in politics. Ruth Davidson won't be able to mount a successful argument for the union when there isn't a single party in Westminster now that chimes with her beliefs. I also don't think the Scottish Tories would allow her to lead the campaign at this point - they've moved on and as they go in a more pro-Brexit direction, getting someone back in who opposes that won't be ideal for them.
Similarly, Scottish Labour are led by a leftist - whether he'll stay or not is another matter, but for now Richard Leonard won't want Gordon Brown stepping in over him to lead any unionist campaign.
I don't mind if Scotland leaves.
Leaving won't keep Scotland in the EU.
The first referendum ran in the knowledge that there would also be an EU referendum and we all got one vote each.
England and Wales voted to leave not just England.
If we are to have a second Scottish independence referendum then the deal for separation should be arrived at before that referendum is held so every voter knows exactly what leaving means. Lets at least learn that one lesson from the EU referendum.