737 Max - Boeing grounds the fleet after second crash | Production temporarily suspended

adexkola

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Too big to go down so they would get bailed out if it ever looked likely. There's over 200 companies that supply parts/services to them, so it would have a massive effect on the economy. PW and GE also are tied in quite tightly with Boeing (RR less so).
Not that tight, except on legacy engines.
 

adexkola

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It wont bring them down. Even with the cost of all this, there's still a good chance they will make a profit this year. It might be the end of the 737 though, i said that at the beginning.
Whether it's a good thing or not is up for discussion but Boeing comfortably sits in the "too big to fail" category. Between their involvement with Embraer, military/space divisions, and their legacy fleet... They'll be fine.
 

nickm

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It wont bring them down. Even with the cost of all this, there's still a good chance they will make a profit this year. It might be the end of the 737 though, i said that at the beginning.
I'm not sure how they can make a profit on 42 new unsold planes a month, each worth $100m. Let alone the collapse of future demand.
 

nickm

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Whether it's a good thing or not is up for discussion but Boeing comfortably sits in the "too big to fail" category. Between their involvement with Embraer, military/space divisions, and their legacy fleet... They'll be fine.
Oh I can see a bankruptcy protection thing that might get them there. But they are surely finished in their current form.
 

adexkola

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I'm not sure how they can make a profit on 42 new unsold planes a month, each worth $100m. Let alone the collapse of future demand.
They still support a huge legacy fleet. Plus they are one of the biggest defense contractors. Plus the world still needs planes, as proven by the immense backlog that won't be filled for at least a decade by both Airbus and Boeing.

The aerospace industry has taken this as a huge caution for sure but in no way is anyone in the know panicking.
 

adexkola

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Oh I can see a bankruptcy protection thing that might get them there. But they are surely finished in their current form.
Probably, as a way to restructure debt.

But a total collapse of Boeing? I just can't see it. Even the stock market (driven in part by irrational investors) is still seeing value in Boeing.

And because a collapse of Boeing not only impacts Boeing, but it's numerous subcontractors (including GE/Pratt), and the military, the US government would step in at some point.
 

11101

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I'm not sure how they can make a profit on 42 new unsold planes a month, each worth $100m. Let alone the collapse of future demand.
They're not unsold. They all have owners waiting to receive them, and who will have paid a significant chunk of the asking price by the time they roll off the production line.

Boeing's 2018 profit was $10.5 billion. Even if they had to scrap the lot it wouldn't end them. Airlines pay as little as half of the asking price, and if they never fly again you still have $30m of brand new engines per aircraft plus all the other reusable parts.
 

Buster15

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That isn't right. It was installed because increased thrust changes it's attitude, which doesn't happen with other transport aircraft. It does this because the engines had to be jammed under the wing as a result of a too low undercarriage, which itself is caused by US regulation (changing it would result in a "new plane" according to us regulation = lots more costs). But it is stable.
Wasn't there an issue with c of g change resulting in a tendency for the aircraft to nose up at slow speeds.
That required the MCAS to prevent a stall by pushing the nose down.
 

11101

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Wasn't there an issue with c of g change resulting in a tendency for the aircraft to nose up at slow speeds.
That required the MCAS to prevent a stall by pushing the nose down.
Yes at high angles of attack but not enough to make it unsafe. Just different enough to the previous 737 to mean pilots would need a new type rating.

The aircraft is still flying but airlines are doing it with the flaps deployed to prevent the MCAS operating.
 

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Yes at high angles of attack but not enough to make it unsafe. Just different enough to the previous 737 to mean pilots would need a new type rating.

The aircraft is still flying but airlines are doing it with the flaps deployed to prevent the MCAS operating.
Understood. Thank you.
I tried to edit my last post to clarify that the c of g change was affected by the much larger diameter Leap X engines causing higher drag. But could not find the edit icon.
 

The Firestarter

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That isn't right. It was installed because increased thrust changes it's attitude, which doesn't happen with other transport aircraft. It does this because the engines had to be jammed under the wing as a result of a too low undercarriage, which itself is caused by US regulation (changing it would result in a "new plane" according to us regulation = lots more costs). But it is stable.
Of course it happens with other aircraft. Pitch up moment from engine / nasele lift is nothing new, it is just different. Leading to a weaker resistance force on the stick in near-stall situations. That is what is different from the NG.
 

nickm

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Yes at high angles of attack but not enough to make it unsafe. Just different enough to the previous 737 to mean pilots would need a new type rating.

The aircraft is still flying but airlines are doing it with the flaps deployed to prevent the MCAS operating.
Thought it was grounded?
 

nickm

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Yes at high angles of attack but not enough to make it unsafe. Just different enough to the previous 737 to mean pilots would need a new type rating.

The aircraft is still flying but airlines are doing it with the flaps deployed to prevent the MCAS operating.
So what's the likely outcome here? They need MCAS to try to make the plane fly like an old style 737. But MCAS clearly can't do that and is a modification that requires pilots to be trained in its use/characteristics. So presumably they have to abandon the fiction the Max can fly like a normal 737, re-rate the aircraft, modify MCAS and its sensors and train all the pilots? Assuming any passengers ever want to step foot on the thing again.
 

The Firestarter

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So what's the likely outcome here? They need MCAS to try to make the plane fly like an old style 737. But MCAS clearly can't do that and is a modification that requires pilots to be trained in its use/characteristics. So presumably they have to abandon the fiction the Max can fly like a normal 737, re-rate the aircraft, modify MCAS and its sensors and train all the pilots? Assuming any passengers ever want to step foot on the thing again.
Whether or not 'MCAS clearly can't do that' will be up to the FAA (and EASA) to decide after evaluation and trial flights.
 

nickm

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Whteher or not 'MCAS clearly can't do that' will be up to the FAA (and EASA) to decide after evaluation and trial flights.
What I mean is, presumably it's not going to be tenable going forwards that pilots won't need to understand or know about MCAS, whatever its new form, as Boeing previously claimed was the case (in order to win that rating). They will at minimum need to know how to switch the thing off, in case of a future problem/ Which presumably makes the planes different in nature. Which means Max pilots will need to know stuff that normal 737 pilots don't. And the FAA has also taken a big hit to its own credibility here.
 

The Firestarter

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What I mean is, presumably it's not going to be tenable going forwards that pilots won't need to understand or know about MCAS, whatever its new form, as Boeing previously claimed was the case (in order to win that rating). They will at minimum need to know how to switch the thing off, in case of a future problem/ Which presumably makes the planes different in nature. Which means Max pilots will need to know stuff that normal 737 pilots don't. And the FAA has also taken a big hit to its own credibility here.
Yeah, however not every 'new stuff' is new type rating. This is another matter for the FAA to decide. I agree that they have taken a blow with this fiasco, and that's why they are throwing not the book but the whole library at Boeing right now. They are sifting through previously grandfathered stuff, which impacts the NG as well.
 

11101

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What I mean is, presumably it's not going to be tenable going forwards that pilots won't need to understand or know about MCAS, whatever its new form, as Boeing previously claimed was the case (in order to win that rating). They will at minimum need to know how to switch the thing off, in case of a future problem/ Which presumably makes the planes different in nature. Which means Max pilots will need to know stuff that normal 737 pilots don't. And the FAA has also taken a big hit to its own credibility here.
They don't need to be identical to have a common type rating, so there can be some MAX specific things in there.
 

Abizzz

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No one will let him near brand new parked aircraft though.
Planes that have been parked outside for a year aren't "new" ;).
Of course it happens with other aircraft. Pitch up moment from engine / nasele lift is nothing new, it is just different. Leading to a weaker resistance force on the stick in near-stall situations. That is what is different from the NG.
Well yeah, it does happen with other aircraft, but not to the extent that anyone previously needed a automated response to it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/08/business/boeing-737-max-.html said:
As Boeing pushed its engineers to figure out how to accommodate bigger, more fuel-efficient engines, height was again an issue. Simply lengthening the landing gear to make the plane taller could have violated rules for exiting the plane in an emergency.

Instead, engineers were able to add just a few inches to the front landing gear and shift the engines farther forward on the wing. The engines fit, but the Max sat at a slightly uneven angle when parked.
While that design solved one problem, it created another. The larger size and new location of the engines gave the Max the tendency to tilt up during certain flight maneuvers, potentially to a dangerous angle.
To compensate, Boeing engineers created the automated anti-stall system, called MCAS, that pushed the jet’s nose down if it was lifting too high. The software was intended to operate in the background so that the Max flew just like its predecessor. Boeing didn’t mention the system in its training materials for the Max.
 

The Firestarter

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Planes that have been parked outside for a year aren't "new" ;).

Well yeah, it does happen with other aircraft, but not to the extent that anyone previously needed a automated response to it.
The quote you posted contains another big misconception. MCAS is not an anti stall system. It does not prevent you from stalling the plane. The A320 family has an actual anti stall system - you can pull the side stick as much as you want , but the computer will limit the control surface movement (under normal law). But since 737 is not fly by wire, its extremely difficult to implement actual anti stall functionality , and MCAS is not that. As it turns out, it does an extremely poor job at what it was designed to, as well.
 

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Wow, such shambles.
I don't see how there is any way back for 737 Max. Half of the people are weary of flying in the first place, when they hear that it'll be on 737 max then I doubt they'd ever step foot inside it again. I wouldn't anyway, even if they told me it's the safest aircraft in the air, I still wouldn't believe them.
 

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I don't see how there is any way back for 737 Max. Half of the people are weary of flying in the first place, when they hear that it'll be on 737 max then I doubt they'd ever step foot inside it again. I wouldn't anyway, even if they told me it's the safest aircraft in the air, I still wouldn't believe them.
Does the average consumer really even know the aircraft they're flying on? I'd be surprised if anyone could tell the difference between a 737, a319 or a320? Same for the wide bodies like a330, 777 or a 787.
 

Paxi

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Does the average consumer really even know the aircraft they're flying on? I'd be surprised if anyone could tell the difference between a 737, a319 or a320? Same for the wide bodies like a330, 777 or a 787.
It tells you plane model iirc, before I buy a ticket on Easy Jet, Turkish Airlines, Lufthansa, and KLM apps.
 

Dargonk

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Does the average consumer really even know the aircraft they're flying on? I'd be surprised if anyone could tell the difference between a 737, a319 or a320? Same for the wide bodies like a330, 777 or a 787.
I don't have a clue about different planes, but when you book it tells you the plane most of the time. I know if I saw the Max listed I would possibly select a different flight.
 
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11101

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Does the average consumer really even know the aircraft they're flying on? I'd be surprised if anyone could tell the difference between a 737, a319 or a320? Same for the wide bodies like a330, 777 or a 787.
No, but people know aircraft that stand out. The A380 stood out for the right reasons and people booked it specifically, the 737MAX does for the wrong reasons.
 

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Reading some more of the conversations between Boeing officials, all I'll say is what an arrogant, pompous organization they are!
 

Buster15

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No, but people know aircraft that stand out. The A380 stood out for the right reasons and people booked it specifically, the 737MAX does for the wrong reasons.
No doubt that the A380 is a terrific jet. But unfortunately it is a commercial failure.
The Boeing737 has been an outstanding success.
But the Max version is clearly a step too far.
Nevertheless, the biggest problem lies with the processes used by Boeing to develop this version. One where Engineering has been replaced by Programme Management.