Next Labour leader - Starmer and Rayner win

RedChip · Jan 16, 2020

Shamwow said:
Why

Take your first example: If momentum campaigned against the leadership, presumably they would do so because bringing down the leadership is a good thing. There would be no hypocrisy if momentum didn't disband its own leadership, since it presumably doesn't suffer the same faults.

When they campaign for democratising the party, they do so because apparently democracy is a good thing of which the part should have more of. It is hypocritical to deny their own members the very same good thing that they want more of for the party. Why, are their members not deserving of democracy?

Shamwow · Jan 16, 2020

RedChip said:
Take your first example: If momentum campaigned against the leadership, presumably they would do so because bringing down the leadership is a good thing. There would be no hypocrisy if momentum didn't disband its own leadership, since it presumably doesn't suffer the same faults.

When they campaign for democratising the party, they do so because apparently democracy is a good thing of which the part should have more of. It is hypocritical to deny their own members the very same good thing that they want more of for the party. Why, are their members not deserving of democracy?

No, they believe that more democracy will make Labour better at achieving what they think its aims should be.

As I said in the first place, they aren't campaigning for all organisations to be democratic, correct me if I'm wrong.

Kag · Jan 16, 2020

Gary_Walsh_Nou_Camp_Hell said:
Because people who believe in the social democraric policies that Corbyn offered, and Long Bailey will build on, view centre ground politics/Blairism as the antithesis of their ideals.

Better to fight for something you believe in and lose, than trade your beliefs in the hope of 'winning'. Because it wouldn't be winning to the left because a centrist party wouldn't pursue the type of change they want in the country.

I full appreciate that standpoint, but agree with you that Long Bailey is highly unlikely to win an election because England is a very conservative country, unfortunately (Labour lost Scotland and Wales is split). The only hope is that in 5 years the political landacape is different, we'll know the realities of Brexit and what a Boris government means etc.

To be honest I'm going to stick my head in the sand and try to avoid what i can for the next few years. The last few have been draining keeping involved in it.

Not when people are suffering. A Labour government led by somebody who isn’t Jeremy Corbyn (or his political offspring) can still be a force for positive change. A force that saves lives. To jeapordise that on the pretence of political principle doesn’t help anybody.

There are people within Momentum that think beating those within Labour is more important than beating the Tories. It’s selfish.

DOTA · Jan 16, 2020

Kag said:
Not when people are suffering. A Labour government led by somebody who isn’t Jeremy Corbyn (or his political offspring) can still be a force for positive change. A force that saves lives. To jeapordise that on the pretence of political principle doesn’t help anybody.

There are people within Momentum that think beating those within Labour is more important than beating the Tories. It’s selfish.

And your plan would be?

Kag · Jan 16, 2020

DiseaseOfTheAge said:
And your plan would be?

My plan is to vote for an electable candidate that will ensure that the best of the PLP is represented on the opposition bench. At the moment, I think Keir Starmer is most suitable for that.

The wider plan, for Labour, is to become a serious and electable party that can appeal to those outside of its own membership.

DOTA · Jan 16, 2020

Kag said:
My plan is to vote for an electable candidate that will ensure that the best of the PLP is represented on the opposition bench. At the moment, I think Keir Starmer is most suitable for that.

And you who do you think he and his front bench will appeal to?

Kag · Jan 16, 2020

DiseaseOfTheAge said:
And you who do you think he and his front bench will appeal to?

Liberal and (floating) conservative voters that vote in their droves. Older, working class people that value their pension and dislike the idea of “going back to the 70s”. I’m quoting that because I don’t subscribe to that view - but it’s one that is widespread. Young city workers and a diverse populace will maintain the cities regardless of the leader.

I think that Long-Bailey will appeal to the membership and that’s where it ends.

sullydnl · Jan 16, 2020

Kag said:
Not when people are suffering. A Labour government led by somebody who isn’t Jeremy Corbyn (or his political offspring) can still be a force for positive change. A force that saves lives. To jeapordise that on the pretence of political principle doesn’t help anybody.

There are people within Momentum that think beating those within Labour is more important than beating the Tories. It’s selfish.

Indeed.

The correct position for the Labour party is to be as left-wing and liberal as it is possible to be while still being able to win the GE. Actually sacrificing the ability to win amounts to prioritising politics over the wellbeing of the vulnerable. Because being ideologically pure in opposition while Tories govern is fundamentally useless to those who would actually benefit from a Labour government.

I can understand people arguing that a very left-wing platform is more viable in a GE than others think, or indeed arguing that a centrist platform comes with its own issues in an election. But I can't understand anyone holding the position that it's better to lose on a hard-left platform than to win on a centre-left one. That's the mindset of people who should never be given power.

Thankfully those people are presumably very rare and in reality most on the left of the party simply think they actually can win a GE.

DOTA · Jan 16, 2020

Kag said:
Liberal and (floating) conservative voters that vote in their droves. Older, working class people that value their pension and dislike the idea of “going back to the 70s”. I’m quoting that because I don’t subscribe to that view - but it’s one that is widespread. Young city workers and a diverse populace will maintain the cities regardless of the leader.

I think that Long-Bailey will appeal to the membership and that’s where it ends.

As I've said a thousand times today, how does this platform not lose far more of the youth vote to the Green Party than it can survive losing, in an age where climate politics is the number one issue for huge amounts of young voters and that is only going to increase in the coming years?

Honestly, I feel like you all think it's 2010.

sun_tzu · Jan 16, 2020

How would people vote at the moment and who is a member

For me (I am a member of the party) unless something dramatic happens in the campaign I expect I'll vote

1 Phillips
2 nandy
3 starmer
4 Thornberry
5 rlb

Would be interested to see how others are planning to vote

ctp · Jan 16, 2020

DiseaseOfTheAge said:
As I've said a thousand times today, how does this platform not lose far more of the youth vote to the Green Party than it can survive losing, in an age where climate politics is the number one issue for huge amounts of young voters and that is only going to increase in the coming years?

Honestly, I feel like you all think it's 2010.

You can combine green policies with centrist economic policy. It's not actually a contradiction.

Kag · Jan 16, 2020

DiseaseOfTheAge said:
As I've said a thousand times today, how does this platform not lose far more of the youth vote to the Green Party than it can survive losing, in an age where climate politics is the number one issue for huge amounts of young voters and that is only going to increase in the coming years?

Honestly, I feel like you all think it's 2010.

Labour can appeal to the wider electorate as well as implement sustainable climate policies.

What does that have to do with preferring the likes of Starmer to Long-Bailey?

DOTA · Jan 16, 2020

ctp said:
You can combine green policies with centrist economic policy. It's not actually a contradiction.

You can combine green policies with centrist economic policy but not you cannot produce the amount of change that scientists are demanding.

We can improve recycling and we can build a few wind farms but that's not what the scientists are telling us to do. They're telling us we need radical transformation.

Kag · Jan 16, 2020

sun_tzu said:
How would people vote at the moment and who is a member

For me (I am a member of the party) unless something dramatic happens in the campaign I expect I'll vote

1 Phillips
2 nandy
3 starmer
4 Thornberry
5 rlb

Would be interested to see how others are planning to vote

1. Starmer
2. Nandy
3. Phillips
4. Thornberry
5. Long-Bailey

This is what I’m thinking at present. I’m open to changing my mind, however.

Shamwow · Jan 16, 2020

sun_tzu said:
How would people vote at the moment and who is a member

For me (I am a member of the party) unless something dramatic happens in the campaign I expect I'll vote

1 Phillips
2 nandy
3 starmer
4 Thornberry
5 rlb

Would be interested to see how others are planning to vote

Starmer/Nandy
RLB
Philips
Thornberry

DOTA · Jan 16, 2020

Kag said:
Labour can appeal to the wider electorate as well as implement sustainable climate policies.

What does that have to do with preferring the likes of Starmer to Long-Bailey?

Because preference for Starmer over our Becky suggests you want a moderate platform. If you think Starmer is offering a radical climate change platform then... I can only say I find that unlikely.

Kag · Jan 16, 2020

DiseaseOfTheAge said:
Because preference for Starmer over our Becky suggests you want a moderate platform. If you think Starmer is offering a radical climate change platform then... I can only say I find that unlikely.

I want an electable platform, not one that alienates swathes of the country. This electable platform can include sustainable climate policies, similar to the ones presented by Labour back in December.

Also, and you’re not going to like this, but most of the electorate don’t care about the environment anywhere near as much as you do. Plenty of people talk about it; watch documentaries; go vegan for a month; refer to David Attenborough as their spirit animal. But far fewer continue to do something about it.

Advocating sustainable policies is sensible and, most importantly, right. But it isn’t going to determine the next general election result. Not unless PR is introduced, which it won’t.

DOTA · Jan 16, 2020

Kag said:
I want an electable platform, not one that alienates swathes of the country. This electable platform can include sustainable climate policies, similar to the ones presented by Labour back in December.

Also, and you’re not going to like this, but most of the electorate don’t care about the environment anywhere near as much as you do. Plenty of people talk about it; watch documentaries; go vegan for a month; refer to David Attenborough as their spirit animal. But far fewer continue to do something about it.

Advocating sustainable policies is sensible and, most importantly, right. But it isn’t going to determine the next general election result. Not unless PR is introduced, which it won’t.

There's four years of things getting worse and worse. We will see appalling losses of life through climate change. We will see incredible anger from the young around the world.

There's no way Labour wins in four years without the votes of people who care about climate change and there is no way they get those without a radical platform.

Sweet Square · Jan 16, 2020

Question - How can the Labour party win the next election ?

RedCafe -

ctp · Jan 16, 2020

DiseaseOfTheAge said:
You can combine green policies with centrist economic policy but not you cannot produce the amount of change that scientists are demanding.

We can improve recycling and we can build a few wind farms but that's not what the scientists are telling us to do. They're telling us we need radical transformation.

Revolution is not popular though, especially in response to a threat as diffuse and "in the future" as climate change. You need to win hearts and minds first to even get the chance to put your policy into practice. And that means having a popular leader and manifesto, winning elections, then starting with small steps, showing progress/success before taking bigger steps to achieve your transformation.

Also, when I was talking about centrist economic policy I was thinking more about dropping Corbyn's policy of socialising 10% of companies or the Waspi stuff rather than any specific green policies. I really do think it's compatible.

There's a good chance we'll have a Green chancellor in Germany in '21, and they pretty much run centrist economic policies for their voter base (educated/well-off/urban) alongside their green policies (and a young charismatic leader).

Sweet Square · Jan 16, 2020

sun_tzu said:
How would people vote at the moment and who is a member

For me (I am a member of the party) unless something dramatic happens in the campaign I expect I'll vote

1 Phillips
2 nandy
3 starmer
4 Thornberry
5 rlb

Would be interested to see how others are planning to vote

1.RLB
2.Nandy(Accelerationist version)
3.Installing Corbyn as party dictator
4.Starmer
5.A sentient 1 hour long youtube video of the soviet national anthem

7.Phillips.

DOTA · Jan 16, 2020

ctp said:
Revolution is not popular though, especially in response to a threat as diffuse and "in the future" as climate change. You need to win hearts and minds first before to even get the chance to put your policy into practice. And that means having a popular leader and manifesto, winning elections, then starting with small steps, showing progress/success before taking bigger steps to achieve your transformation.

Also, when I was talking about centrist economic policy I was thinking more about dropping Corbyn's policy of socialising 10% of companies or the Waspi stuff rather than any specific green policies. I really do think it's compatible.

There's a good chance we'll have a Green chancellor in Germany in '21, and they pretty much run centrist economic policies for their voter base (educated/well-off/urban) alongside their green policies.

The Green stuff is the big stuff though. That's the stuff that requires huge amounts of money to be extracted from the rich and huge amounts of change to society.

There isn't nice and gentle moderate green politics that achieves anywhere near what scientists tell us we need to do.

ctp · Jan 16, 2020

DiseaseOfTheAge said:
The Green stuff is the big stuff though. That's the stuff that requires huge amounts of money to be extracted from the rich and huge amounts of change to society.

There isn't nice and gentle moderate green politics that achieves anywhere near what scientists tell us we need to do.

Like I said, you will probably need to start with nice and gentle even if it lacks efficacy and show people that your ideas are economically viable as well as ecologically. Otherwise you create a lot of backlash, c.f. all the boomer Greta memes.

By the way, is Labour even all that green? I'm not super deep into British politics, but our Social Democrats for example still support their dwindling demographic of coal miners as well as our car industry.

PedroMendez · Jan 16, 2020

berbatrick said:
@PedroMendez It is in the paper I linked. Pages 12-15 (29-32 according to the printed numbers)

ty. I've come across J.A. Getty before and dont find some of his thesis convincing. Thats one of them. Fairly arcane but interesting topic + very off-topic. Thanks for sharing the link & where it is in the text.

DOTA · Jan 16, 2020

ctp said:
Like I said, you will probably need to start with nice and gentle even if it lacks efficacy and show people that your ideas are economically viable as well as ecologically. Otherwise you create a lot of backlash, c.f. all the boomer Greta memes.

By the way, is Labour even all that green? I'm not super deep into British politics, but our Social Democrats for example still support their dwindling demographic of coal miners as well as our car industry.

Corbyn's mainfesto was. It was endorsed by serious climate change organisations over the Green Party. That's never happened before and, as I'm screaming endlessly, needs to remain the case if the Green Party aren't going to ruin Labours chances in our FPTP system. The reason Labour adopted these policies was because they knew they had to else they'd lose huge amounts of voters. That issue will only get worse and those arguing for a moderate platform are trying to pretend the rules of the game are the same as they were ten years ago when they're vastly different now and they will change further in the coming years and there is only on direction they will go in.

Gary_Walsh_Nou_Camp_Hell · Jan 16, 2020

Kag said:
Not when people are suffering. A Labour government led by somebody who isn’t Jeremy Corbyn (or his political offspring) can still be a force for positive change. A force that saves lives. To jeapordise that on the pretence of political principle doesn’t help anybody.

There are people within Momentum that think beating those within Labour is more important than beating the Tories. It’s selfish.

Of course lots of people of suffering - but surely you will understand why many people wouldn't trust someone like Starmer who abstained on major votes on welfare cuts...

A centrist candidate would be basically be protecting the status quo.

berbatrick · Jan 17, 2020

PedroMendez said:
ty. I've come across J.A. Getty before and dont find some of his thesis convincing. Thats one of them. Fairly arcane but interesting topic + very off-topic. Thanks for sharing the link & where it is in the text.

Literally the only reason I read this is because I find Stalinists annoying to argue with, but it didn't help me too much :lol:

This author usually seems to have good access to archive which is why I try to stick to his stuff. In the same paper, pages 7-9 (24-26) is also interesting/frightening/funny - about people's suggestions on what to include in the constitution.

Robbo's Shoulder · Jan 17, 2020

sun_tzu said:
How would people vote at the moment and who is a member

For me (I am a member of the party) unless something dramatic happens in the campaign I expect I'll vote

1 Phillips
2 nandy
3 starmer
4 Thornberry
5 rlb

Would be interested to see how others are planning to vote

Nandy
Starmer
Phillips
Long-Bailey
Thornberry

With Rayner for deputy.

fergieisold · Jan 17, 2020

DiseaseOfTheAge said:
What would happen if someone other than Becky won?

Drifter said:
I'm sure she is her own woman ,with her own ideas. Save that for the right wing rags,they will be full of it whoever wins.

I think that if another socialist left wing momentum candidate gets in then it is immediately another tory government in the next election. The country on the whole is neither socialist or far left of the political spectrum. We need a viable opposition to the current government, and Labour are on a path to self destruction at the moment.

Smores · Jan 17, 2020

sun_tzu said:
How would people vote at the moment and who is a member

For me (I am a member of the party) unless something dramatic happens in the campaign I expect I'll vote

1 Phillips
2 nandy
3 starmer
4 Thornberry
5 rlb

Would be interested to see how others are planning to vote

So you're not bothered about Phillips having anti-semtism in her own office? And then only suspending rather than immediately getting rid of her?

Interesting

Smores · Jan 17, 2020

Kag said:
Not when people are suffering. A Labour government led by somebody who isn’t Jeremy Corbyn (or his political offspring) can still be a force for positive change. A force that saves lives. To jeapordise that on the pretence of political principle doesn’t help anybody.

There are people within Momentum that think beating those within Labour is more important than beating the Tories. It’s selfish.

I don't disagree on RLB but that last paragraph is just the opposite of reality. It's not Momentum who spent years infighting against the party leader and giving the Tories what they wanted.

Momentum are now a policy lobby group within the party the same as all the others like Progress. They'll push their platform but i bet they don't undermine the eventual leader with personal attacks in the same way as those on right of the party did.

esmufc07 · Jan 17, 2020

Smores said:
So you're not bothered about Phillips having anti-semtism in her own office? And then only suspending rather than immediately getting rid of her?

Interesting

I'd imagine with a straight up dismissal Philips would be liable to legal action. Suspension/investigation and then a possible dismissal is the correct way for it to be handled (I would imagine she will eventually be dismissed).

esmufc07 · Jan 17, 2020

sun_tzu said:
How would people vote at the moment and who is a member

For me (I am a member of the party) unless something dramatic happens in the campaign I expect I'll vote

1 Phillips
2 nandy
3 starmer
4 Thornberry
5 rlb

Would be interested to see how others are planning to vote

1. Starmer.
2. Nandy.
3. Philips.
4. Thornberry

5. RLB

nickm · Jan 17, 2020

DiseaseOfTheAge said:
Corbyn's mainfesto was. It was endorsed by serious climate change organisations over the Green Party. That's never happened before and, as I'm screaming endlessly, needs to remain the case if the Green Party aren't going to ruin Labours chances in our FPTP system. The reason Labour adopted these policies was because they knew they had to else they'd lose huge amounts of voters. That issue will only get worse and those arguing for a moderate platform are trying to pretend the rules of the game are the same as they were ten years ago when they're vastly different now and they will change further in the coming years and there is only on direction they will go in.

My reading of the climate policy was it was as much a vehicle for “democratic socialism” as for climate action, equating the two unnecessary. I think labours ambition was right but many of the solutions just seemed a bit dogmatic.

Ubik · Jan 17, 2020

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Updated YouGov, similar to the last one. Would go with this over the labourlist one, personally.

esmufc07 · Jan 17, 2020

Ubik said:
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Updated YouGov, similar to the last one. Would go with this over the labourlist one, personally.

Hopefully it’s correct and @Sweet Square goes into a period of mourning.

Vidic_In_Moscow · Jan 17, 2020

Looking like another 15 years of Tory governing with this selection. They've turned themselves into the LibDems ~2012.

NinjaFletch · Jan 17, 2020

@DiseaseOfTheAge

I have a vague recollection a few years ago that you and I had a discussion years ago about feeling more European than British as part of why we both feel so pro-EU.

I'm interested to know how you square your support with RLB with her parroting right wing attack lines about the EU such as today:

"The story of the last few years is that many people feel there is something wrong with their laws being drafted hundreds of miles away by a distant and largely unaccountable bureaucratic elite in Brussels.

I largely think it's a shame that Lewis did not attract more support. I think his brand of left wing, pro-EU politics is exactly where the party should be - although whether he is the person to make that argument I'm not sure.

sun_tzu · Jan 17, 2020

Ubik said:
Tweet
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Updated YouGov, similar to the last one. Would go with this over the labourlist one, personally.

That's what I would expect... Rlb will have a strong showing with the momentum mob but will be 4th or 5th pick for a lot of people and naturally as people are eliminated votes will switch to a more moderate candidate (probably starmer)

711 · Jan 17, 2020

@DiseaseOfTheAge

I have a vague recollection a few years ago that you and I had a discussion years ago about feeling more European than British as part of why we both feel so pro-EU.

I'm interested to know how you square your support with RLB with her parroting right wing attack lines about the EU such as today:

"The story of the last few years is that many people feel there is something wrong with their laws being drafted hundreds of miles away by a distant and largely unaccountable bureaucratic elite in Brussels.

I largely think it's a shame that Lewis did not attract more support. I think his brand of left wing, pro-EU politics is exactly where the party should be - although whether he is the person to make that argument I'm not sure.
[/QUOTE]
Chief Corbyn disciple is anti-EU. How surprising. At least she's honest about it, so even though I don't agree it is a plus point for Our Becky at last, for honesty at any rate.

Next Labour leader - Starmer and Rayner win

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