SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Di Maria's angel said:

This is dumb. Why are they stuck on a ship where conditions would be ideal for the virus to spread? A confined area packed with people. And now that there is at least one person infected, what difference does it make to quarantine them on a boat or elsewhere?

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Vidic_In_Moscow said:

Bit tasteless of Sky News to name and show a photograph of a British guy who caught the virus and nickname him the 'super spreader'. Cnuts

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Vidic_In_Moscow said:

Bit tasteless of Sky News to name and show a photograph of a British guy who caught the virus and nickname him the 'super spreader'. Cnuts

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predator said:

The thought of a super virus wiping out the human race fascinates me. I've heard many people say they think it will happen one day. Pardon my lack of medical knowledge but surely the human race, with it's ever growing advancements, will combat any such super virus?

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Buster15 said:

Not really. Think about the worries about antibiotics.
We are told that we are a mutation away from having no ability to fight bacterial infections.

.

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Grinner said:

Could easily have done that with your mum.

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Grinner said:

Could easily have done that with your mum.

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Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær said:

My masseuse was due back this week but her flight has been re-routed due to this and she's not back until Tuesday meaning my appointment on Friday has been booked with another, less sexy, practitioner. Boo to you coronra virus.

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Grinner said:

Could easily have done that with your mum.

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Grinner said:

I don't think I'm a boomer. Gen X maybe.

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Igor Drefljak said:

At least this one will have a much lower chance of giving you the virus from bumming you!
Silver linings and all that

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Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær said:

You can't get Corona virus from strap ons.

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OnlyTwoDaSilvas said:

We've got 2 people being isolated at the uni I work at, one on campus, and one off site, both currently being tested for the virus. Both travelled back from China in the last few weeks and have various respiratory symptoms. The uni are being quite tight lipped about it, by not saying which part of the uni they're based in, or even whether it's a member of staff or a student. It somehow made it into the news late yesterday, so staff have been a bit hysterical today.

Hopefully they'll just give us all 2 weeks off.

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Dumbstar said:

Which uni?

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Dumbstar said:

Which uni?

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USREDEVIL said:

Anyone have an updated graph re infection and death rate?

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Di Maria's angel said:

This is dumb. Why are they stuck on a ship where conditions would be ideal for the virus to spread? A confined area packed with people. And now that there is at least one person infected, what difference does it make to quarantine them on a boat or elsewhere?

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Jippy said:

Christ, looks a bit much. It only talks about gas, but I guess if it can block that, it will stop all other virusy particles?

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Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær said:

You can't get Corona virus from strap ons.

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The coronavirus has jumped from ship to shore, Japan’s health ministry said Wednesday, after an employee of the country’s health ministry tested positive for the illness after surveying passengers aboard a cruise ship being held under quarantine in the port of Yokohama.

Additionally, another 39 of the more than 3,600 crew and passengers have also tested positive, bringing the total number of cases to 175.

The ship, known as the Diamond Princess, has been under quarantine for a week, after a passenger who disembarked in Hong Kong was diagnosed with coronavirus.

Japanese authorities have been slowly moving those diagnosed with the illness off the ship and to hospitals. But on board, many passengers are complaining of lack of information and access to necessary medicines.

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11101 said:

Where do you think they will be if they're taken off the ship? There aren't enough isolation facilities for 3,700 people, they'll all be locked in a sports hall somewhere. At least on the ship they all have individual cabins and facilities.

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Simbo said:

For anyone interested in losing an hour or ten (and wants to go back to panic mode), this guy is a British doc that seems to be spending all his time right now reading through published reports from the medical community and explaining them with multiple daily vids on youtube.
His latest vid:

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CassiusClaymore said:

So basically what I'm taking from that is that it's all gonna kick off in the next few weeks, you're more likely to catch it than not but that you've got a good chance of pulling through if you're healthy.

NHS could well be in meltdown by March though.

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CassiusClaymore said:

So basically what I'm taking from that is that it's all gonna kick off in the next few weeks, you're more likely to catch it than not but that you've got a good chance of pulling through if you're healthy.

NHS could well be in meltdown by March/April though.

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altodevil said:

Except those chances are reflective of good hospital care and attention. What happens when the NHS breaks after a few thousand cases? I'm not sure there is enough equipment for that. I suspect the death rate will rise big time. Pneumonia is no joke.

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Transcript
Interviewer: How well are we doing at detecting the virus?

I think case numbers are the tip of the iceberg, particularly in China where they are only detecting probably 5% of cases - the most severe - so i think it is misleading to look at the Chinese case numbers effectively they’re just looking at the epidemic in Hubei and Wuhan Provence. Outside that province they are only reporting cases that have a link to Wuhan since they sealed the city two weeks ago it is unsurprising that cases are going down.

I think were in the early phases of a global pandemic at the moment. Singapore is seeing local transmission. The fact hat we’ve only reported 8 cases in this country is just because again our surveillance is focussed on travellers. We think probably we’re picking up maybe one in three cases at the current time.

We will know more in the next few weeks when surveillance is started in hospitals across the UK of pneumonia cases. That will give us a proper picture. I think the sort of measures John Oxford talked about may have some potential to slow spread down and move us out of the flu season, release NHS pressures a bit, but i think it is highly unlikely that will stop transmission of this virus.

Interviewer: And when you talked about local transmission can you explain exactly what that means?

So at the moment we’ve been seeing cases, detecting cases, in travellers, they were infected overseas effectively. When we can be sure transmission has started here we’re getting transmission from person-to-person within the UK in a sustained manner - that’s what we mean by local transmission.

Interviewer: And what about death rates from the disease?

So again the picture in China is somewhat misleading for a number of reasons. They are mostly hospitalising very severe cases and there is a three week delay frombasically when somebody gets ill to when they die, so you have to compare the deaths being seen now with cases three weeks ago so in Wuhan for instance, the cases they are detecting have a mortality of 20% but since that’s the tip of the iceberg the overall mortality rate we think is much lower but still potentially concerning maybe 1% of those getting infected might die but we have a lot of uncertainty around that estimate.

Interviewer: Is it possible to know when this might reach a peak?

So i think at the moment um our best eastimates are really that transmission will really get going in the UK in the next few weeks unless we’re very lucky probably peaking two or three months after that. It has to be bourne in mind the epidemic in Wuhan is peaking at the moment, it’s be going for 3 months since the beginning of December, we have no real idea what’s going on in the rest of China. Hospitals in Beijing apparently are full of pneumonia cases which are not being tested so we have no clear indication of true numbers in China. So that is a planning assumption in the UK. We would all of course like it to be less severe than we’re worrying about but policy has to plan for the worst case, or at least the reasonable worst case, which is what’s going on now.

Interviewer: So what should they be planning for in terms of numbers getting the virus?

If it truly establishes itself in terms of community person-to-person transmission, it will behave actually a lot like a flu pandemic. Maybe about 60% of the population getting infected, but most of those people will have very very mild symptoms.

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altodevil said:

Except those chances are reflective of good hospital care and attention. What happens when the NHS breaks after a few thousand cases? I'm not sure there is enough equipment for that. I suspect the death rate will rise big time. Pneumonia is no joke.

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CassiusClaymore said:

Of course it isn't but I think only a very small people will develop pneumonia just like those who have the flu.

Just seen this on Reddit which is a transcript of an interview with Prof Neil Ferguson - Director of MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London on R4...

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