I am picking the data from here (I think like everyone else)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
And is deaths / infected % (both reported)
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
And is deaths / infected % (both reported)
What I meant was that maybe at the beginning deaths from it might have been attributed to common flu or other pre-existing conditions, while now with the awareness, they are getting attributed to it. In any case, it is really worrying, a mortality rate of 3% is very high, and there are indications than millions of people are going to get infected from it.I am picking the data from here (I think like everyone else)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
And is deaths / infected % (both reported)
4bars
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Miss reporting can be both ways. Deaths could be attributed to other conditions and infected (dead or not) could be disregarded (and still as there are different symptomatic levels) by the individuals themselves and not going to the doctors.What I meant was that maybe at the beginning deaths from it might have been attributed to common flu or other pre-existing conditions, while now with the awareness, they are getting attributed to it. In any case, it is really worrying, a mortality rate of 3% is very high, and there are indications than millions of people are going to get infected from it.
The only thing we can check is the data that we have and we can't speak anymore of 2% and we are entering at 3% when flu rearly pass 0.1% (probably because shots). And as you said, it seems is getting out of control, so might turn ugly
Disregarding it because only affect elderly and people with preconditions is...well...We all have granparents and people with preconditions we love, don't we?
It is all getting a little bit scary. Just one month ago it seemed crazy to think it will get all over the world but now it seems almost certain.
This morning i woke up and heared sirens rushing around my neighborhood and the virus was the first thing that came to my mind. Since it is quite spread in Italy and i live in Slovenia it is probably just a matter of time until it gets here and i have 0 confidence that our leaders are prepared for it.
This morning i woke up and heared sirens rushing around my neighborhood and the virus was the first thing that came to my mind. Since it is quite spread in Italy and i live in Slovenia it is probably just a matter of time until it gets here and i have 0 confidence that our leaders are prepared for it.
Of course. I didn't actually do that. I just said that deaths that might have been caused by it, could have been attributed to other pre-conditions, while now, that doctors are more aware of it, they are attributing them correctly to the virus.Miss reporting can be both ways. Deaths could be attributed to other conditions and infected (dead or not) could be disregarded (and still as there are different symptomatic levels) by the individuals themselves and not going to the doctors.
The only thing we can check is the data that we have and we can't speak anymore of 2% and we are entering at 3% when flu rearly pass 0.1% (probably because shots). And as you said, it seems is getting out of control, so might turn ugly
Disregarding it because only affect elderly and people with preconditions is...well...We all have granparents and people with preconditions we love, don't we?
Or it can be that China was lowering the stats, but now that it has gone global, it makes no sense to do so.
Who knows? I hope it has not mutated and become more dangerous. If it will infect hundreds of millions of people (like Spanish flu did), the difference from 2% to 3% would be in tens of millions, which is incredibly scary.
4bars
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You are right, but to make it even worse is that to reach pass from 2% over to 70.000 to 3% on 80.000 in a week, means that the last data growth had to be 5-7% mortality rate in the last 10.000 at least to reach the 3% in total. So it can be worse than thatOf course. I didn't actually do that. I just said that deaths that might have been caused by it, could have been attributed to other pre-conditions, while now, that doctors are more aware of it, they are attributing them correctly to the virus.
Or it can be that China was lowering the stats, but now that it has gone global, it makes no sense to do so.
Who knows? I hope it has not mutated and become more dangerous. If it will infect hundreds of millions of people (like Spanish flu did), the difference from 2% to 3% would be in tens of millions, which is incredibly scary.
Yep, that is true and is pretty scary. There were already forecasts that it can mutate shortly, so if that is the case, then it is really bad.You are right, but to make it even worse is that to reach pass from 2% over to 70.000 to 3% on 80.000 in a week, means that the last data growth had to be 5-7% mortality rate in the last 10.000 at least to reach the 3% in total. So it can be worse than that
On the other side, I read today that it is close to reaching the peak (the infection rate is slowing down), so that would be good. But you never know if this is true, and there are always chances for a second wage.
I'm actually quite proud of our adopted country that they've moved so decisively to try to contain the spread. I feel really sorry for the people in the affected areas though, as it must be so difficult to live like that. I'm desperately hoping it doesn't pop up in Marche.
We had our little Carnevale yesterday here. There were considerably fewer people in the square than there were last year, despite the really good weather. I reckon everyone's getting jittery.
We had our little Carnevale yesterday here. There were considerably fewer people in the square than there were last year, despite the really good weather. I reckon everyone's getting jittery.
Di Maria's angel
Captain of Moanchester United
Better to take action now. Slight panic isn't all bad as its seems like most governments aren't willing to act yet.I'm actually quite proud of our adopted country that they've moved so decisively to try to contain the spread. I feel really sorry for the people in the affected areas though, as it must be so difficult to live like that. I'm desperately hoping it doesn't pop up in Marche.
We had our little Carnevale yesterday here. There were considerably fewer people in the square than there were last year, despite the really good weather. I reckon everyone's getting jittery.
4bars
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I read 3 weeks ago that the peak had to be 2 weeks ago. Also I read yesterday here in the forum that the incubation period could be up to 38 days instead of 14 and now searching for the article found another one that they say it might be 27 daysYep, that is true and is pretty scary. There were already forecasts that it can mutate shortly, so if that is the case, then it is really bad.
On the other side, I read today that it is close to reaching the peak (the infection rate is slowing down), so that would be good. But you never know if this is true, and there are always chances for a second wage.
https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/coronavirus-incubation-period-27-days/
So in conclusion no one knows anything so I doubt someone can know any pick date
11101
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I think that longer estimate was based on Italy thinking the first carrier came from China on 21st January and the first symptoms showed up mid Feb. Now they realise that person never had it.I read 3 weeks ago that the peak had to be 2 weeks ago. Also I read yesterday here in the forum that the incubation period could be up to 38 days instead of 14 and now searching for the article found another one that they say it might be 27 days
https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/coronavirus-incubation-period-27-days/
So in conclusion no one knows anything so I doubt someone can know any pick date
It would be good to know if all the new cases in Italy are in or linked to the original outbreak areas, or if it is spreading beyond that now.
4bars
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The article says that is a patient in HubeiI think that longer estimate was based on Italy thinking the first carrier came from China on 21st January and the first symptoms showed up mid Feb. Now they realise that person never had it.
It would be good to know if all the new cases in Italy are in or linked to the original outbreak areas, or if it is spreading beyond that now.
Di Maria's angel
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No idea if its true.
The government is taking the appropriate measures, the population not so much. Our local esselunga was all out of produce yesterday, you know the situation is bad when the pasta aisle has been raided clean.I'm actually quite proud of our adopted country that they've moved so decisively to try to contain the spread. I feel really sorry for the people in the affected areas though, as it must be so difficult to live like that. I'm desperately hoping it doesn't pop up in Marche.
We had our little Carnevale yesterday here. There were considerably fewer people in the square than there were last year, despite the really good weather. I reckon everyone's getting jittery.
The mass hysteria has also started rearing it's ugly head in the hospitals now, a few of my colleagues were attacked by an impatient mob last night while they were doing triage in A&E. And a bunch of people keep trying to sneak into the wards or pharmacies to steal masks. The situation is rather tense.
Red Star One
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I was dining on Friday with a couple of my Italian friends including a girl that just arrived from Milan, few days pass and it's all panic in Lombardia and few other regions. Indeed photos of local supermarkets with empty shelves look quite stunning and all my Milan friends only talk about one thing. Haven't seen a situation like that in Europe never before
justboy68
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Yeah there's actually a lot more travel between the two countries than we realise in the west. I've been at the gate at Shanghai Hongqiao airport and seen the next gate over all the folks flying to Pyongyang. I had to do a double take, because it surprised me.So I hear. I've no reason to doubt the man -- he's not the man to fuel rumours, from what I've seen of him.
izec
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I doubt Iran will report the real numbers. They are like China in that sense, the official numbers can't be trusted
Paxi
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I doubt Iran will report the real numbers. They are like China in that sense, the official numbers can't be trusted
Definitely more than 50 dead then.Guardian reporting it, seems legit
Paxi
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From Guardian's live feed:
Seems like the outbreak is being politicised in Iran.Iran’s government disputes report that 50 have died from the coronavirus.
Sam Jones
The Iranian government has denied trying to cover up the full extent of the coronavirus outbreak after reports suggested the death toll from the disease was more than four times higher than official figures claim.
On Monday, a lawmaker from Qom – a Shia holy city 75 miles (120km) south of the capital, Tehran, which has had a cluster of cases – accused Iran’s health minister of “lying” about the scale of the outbreak.
According to the semi-official ILNA news agency, which is close to reformists, the lawmaker, Ahmad Amirabadi Farahani, said there had been 50 deaths from the coronavirus in Qom alone.
“The rest of the media have not published this figure, but we prefer not to censor what concerns the coronavirus because people’s lives are in danger,” Fatemeh Madiani, the ILNA editor, told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
But the country’s deputy health minister rejected the report. In a news conference broadcast live on state television, Iraj Harirchi said that 12 people had died from the coronavirus and 66 had been infected.
“I categorically deny this information,” said Iraj Harirchi. “This is not the time for political confrontations. The coronavirus is a national problem.”
Iran’s government pledged to be transparent about the outbreak.
The government is taking the appropriate measures, the population not so much. Our local esselunga was all out of produce yesterday, you know the situation is bad when the pasta aisle has been raided clean.
The mass hysteria has also started rearing it's ugly head in the hospitals now, a few of my colleagues were attacked by an impatient mob last night while they were doing triage in A&E. And a bunch of people keep trying to sneak into the wards or pharmacies to steal masks. The situation is rather tense.
Hmm, that behaviour's not hit central Italy, but two people mentioned it to me this morning in the village, so folk are thinking about it. I've ordered a box of facemasks from Amazon Italia, just in case. They are still available, by the way.I was dining on Friday with a couple of my Italian friends including a girl that just arrived from Milan, few days pass and it's all panic in Lombardia and few other regions. Indeed photos of local supermarkets with empty shelves look quite stunning and all my Milan friends only talk about one thing. Haven't seen a situation like that in Europe never before
Morpheus 7
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Keep in mind it can be passed directly through the eyes. Wear some sunglasses or something. You'll look proper badass on the street then.Hmm, that behaviour's not hit central Italy, but two people mentioned it to me this morning in the village, so folk are thinking about it. I've ordered a box of facemasks from Amazon Italia, just in case. They are still available, by the way.
Paxi
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Iraq detects first case of coronavirus
Iraq has detected its first case of coronavirus, the health ministry said on Monday.
Local health officials in the Iraqi Shi’ite city of Najaf said an Iranian theology student was the first positive case of the virus, Reuters reports.
The patient had entered Iraq before the government shut border crossings and banned the entry of any non-Iraqis coming from Iran, the ministry said in a statement.
“It has become clear to the ministry that the results of lab tests conducted on a theology student, an Iranian citizen, who had entered the country before ... the decision to stop travel have revealed he is ill with the coronavirus,” it said.
massi83
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If there is 50 dead, it means there are more than 2.000 infected. And since they only notice now, it is too late for quarantine. Seems like pandemia is quite likely.Not sure how reliable this is but the account has a million followers and some prominent journalists following it.
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horsechoker
The Caf's Roy Keane.
I think it's time for elderly people in Europe to protect themselves even further from the virus because they're the most likely to die. Family members need to have as little contact with them as possible.
A 5th elderly person has died in Italy, one problem is Italians like to spend time with their elderly relatives especially on Sundays and I think this could be a major source of infection.
A 5th elderly person has died in Italy, one problem is Italians like to spend time with their elderly relatives especially on Sundays and I think this could be a major source of infection.
Paxi
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South China Morning Post:
https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/soc...ients-14-days-after?__twitter_impression=true
Coronavirus: Wuhan to quarantine all cured patients for 14 days after some test positive again
https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/soc...ients-14-days-after?__twitter_impression=true
VorZakone
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It's worrying that test results aren't always accurate. Some passenger on a ship was first tested positive, then negative.
justboy68
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I worry it could get really bad now that it's spread to many other countries with less ability to control the spread compared to China. Just hope the warmer weather that comes along with spring will help contain it.
ArmandTamzarian
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Be careful, remember the last time a small village fella ended up on the news because of the cold. We all had a good laugh at him for months.I'm scared to cause a scene and end up on the fecking news. I live in Northern Ireland, in a small village, last thing I want is an ambulance arriving at my door with paramedics in hazmats suits. I think I'll self isolate for couple of days and see if there are any changes. I haven't had any fever which is a good sign I suppose.
Paxi
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Sounds exactly like my wee brother.Be careful, remember the last time a small village fella ended up on the news because of the cold. We all had a good laugh at him for months.
The Purley King
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I think the best thing governments can do now is to prepare for everyone being exposed to it.
It was pretty obvious from a long time ago that due to people transmitting the virus to each other whilst not having any symptoms it would make containing it an impossibility.
My wife is missing her spleen from a cancer op, resulting in a depressed immune system, so whilst I'd fancy my chances if I got it, she would be a far higher risk of something bad happening. You can't live in your house for months on end though, you have to go out at some point.
Race is on to find a vaccine.
It was pretty obvious from a long time ago that due to people transmitting the virus to each other whilst not having any symptoms it would make containing it an impossibility.
My wife is missing her spleen from a cancer op, resulting in a depressed immune system, so whilst I'd fancy my chances if I got it, she would be a far higher risk of something bad happening. You can't live in your house for months on end though, you have to go out at some point.
Race is on to find a vaccine.
Adisa
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This thing must not reach Lagos.
Paxi
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Monday update:
I’ve been in Phuket since last 4 weeks. Albeit I’m not in a massive tourist area, but here barely anybody is talking about it, and there is also plenty of tourist traffic on the island (although zero Chinese due to their travel ban).Give it a month and it's going to be so wide spread that most tourist places will be feked
Given Thailand is supposed to be close to epicentre of this virus, there should be panic here but literally nobody cares.
Can’t help but think this has been so blown out of proportion and that there are other factors at play as to why it is being reported as a global danger.
Rhyme Animal
Thinks Di Zerbi is better than Pep.
Like what? Genuine question, not being sarky.Can’t help but think this has been so blown out of proportion and that there are other factors at play as to why it is being reported as a global danger.
Why would U.K media blow this up for example?
africanspur
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I imagine he may be referring to the general attitude towards China in the West currently and the difference in reporting between this and, for example, the 2009 H1N1 outbreak, which originated in the USA, killing somewhere between 150, 000 to 550, 000 in its first year, mostly younger people as well:Like what? Genuine question, not being sarky.
Why would U.K media blow this up for example?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-re...ak3Kt570_AUOcii8d-E8p-_mQN7sXz5wFN_mtpVwIC6Kg
horsechoker
The Caf's Roy Keane.
Profit, the media stands to gain from this as people will be visiting news sites constantly for updates, I've been visiting news sites more frequently and I assume more people have too.Like what? Genuine question, not being sarky.
Why would U.K media blow this up for example?
hungrywing
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Does make you wonder how much certain website clicks go up during things like this.Profit, the media stands to gain from this as people will be visiting news sites constantly for updates, I've been visiting news sites more frequently and I assume more people have too.
Jake
Mine's too big and gay.
I am working about 300m away from Kents Hill Park Conference Centre, when 118 people have been released yesterday after being quarantined for two weeks.
Only just found this out now, have work sent me to an early grave?
Only just found this out now, have work sent me to an early grave?