SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Dr. Dwayne

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I cannot see this lasting only for 2 weeks. Wuhan is staying for almost 3 months in lockdown, Italy and Spain will likely stay for 6+ weeks or so.

Assuming that you are in some suburban place, I think that the risk or getting infected (or infecting others) while going for a walk is quite small. If it is a city when there are more people walking then yes, it is a bit risky.
Yeah, I'm in a city of 2.5 million.

I get that the two weeks is a Gary Neville two weeks but if people insist on going out unnecessarily then that two weeks is going to grow and grow. Walks, fine but people are moaning about not being able to congregate in groups, or, worse yet, actually doing it. I'm starting to view this virus as something that is perfect for spreading through our instant gratification I me me mine society.
 

redshaw

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I wouldn't say US is doing lots of testing and people bring up same as South Korea. 250--300k for a country of 50 million is a lot. 300k for 80 million in Germany is quite a lot. 200-300k for a population of 330 million is not. US would need to do around 1.8 million tests to be on par with Korea. It's good that they have started to ramp up testing, wasn't long ago US had less than 10k.
 

Ekkie Thump

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Really?

Shit, I might have misheard it (I am supposedly working and was looking at it in youtube). It might well be the case, and if so, then it means feck all considering that most people who would go for the test are feeling sick.

But then, how it is explained that they have 53k cases but only 689 deaths (compare to Italy 69k/7k, Spain 40k/3k, France 22k/1k)?
I couldn't confidently say . Certainly in Italy and Spain's case their outbreaks were heavily concentrated in specific regions where health services have been overwhelmed in a way that thankfully hasn't happened in the US. I guess another, pessimistic, hypothesis might be that deaths lag the number of new cases and the US only surpassed France and Spain in caseload around 4 days ago. As horrible as it sounds it might simply be that people just haven't had enough time to die.

I'm also unsure whether deaths in the US preceding the rollout of testing have been correctly diagnosed.
 

Revan

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Pretty balanced talking from Graham. I hope that the bill passes soon. Less money to CEOs, but also this is not the time for Green New Deal or identity politics to be put on the bill. For now, everything should be focused on the virus.
 

Revan

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I couldn't confidently say . Certainly in Italy and Spain's case their outbreaks were heavily concentrated in specific regions where health services have been overwhelmed in a way that thankfully hasn't happened in the US. I guess another, pessimistic, hypothesis might be that deaths lag the number of new cases and the US only surpassed France and Spain in caseload around 4 days ago. As horrible as it sounds it might simply be that people just haven't had enough time to die.

I'm also unsure whether deaths in the US preceding the rollout of testing have been correctly diagnosed.
I don't buy the death lag, Italy was having much more deaths even a week ago. Also, the critical cases in US are only around a thousands. Even if all of them die (which is not gonna happen), still the number of deaths will be less than in Spain, despite that the number of infected is higher. It might be a part of the explanation but not the main part IMO.

I still think that like in Germany (and South Korea), the fatality rate is lower cause the number of tests is higher. The more tests you do, the more asymptotic (or people will mild symptoms) you find. In fact, the spike in US has happened partially cause in the last week the number of testing has increased so much (and partially cause of New York exploding).

Let's see. If the country is shut down for another month, there might be good times ahead.
 

Ludens the Red

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Think the penny has finally dropped and now most Londoners are staying in doors. Was out in Camden most of the day and it was actually quite surreal, nobody really about. No groups at all, mostly fake joggers and cyclists, barely any cars on the road.
Half a dozen people orderly queuing outside the post office/supermarket and pharmacy with face masks on. Every one of these places now has multiple door staff Operating a one in person out policy. When I came into work at around 2pm from Bedfordshire I was one of about 6/7 on the train which again was surreal. Now going back home, literally the only sole on the train.
You’ll still get the cnuts (those in park today) but generally I think the British public have proved they do listen and do care and are shitting themselves.



That’s Kings Cross at 2pm.




Camden High Street at 4:30
 

Skills

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I cannot see this lasting only for 2 weeks. Wuhan is staying for almost 3 months in lockdown, Italy and Spain will likely stay for 6+ weeks or so.

Assuming that you are in some suburban place, I think that the risk or getting infected (or infecting others) while going for a walk is quite small. If it is a city when there are more people walking then yes, it is a bit risky.
The earlier you start your lockdown the less time you'll have to spend in lockdown.
 

DOTA

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Think the penny has finally dropped and now most Londoners are staying in doors. Was out in Camden most of the day and it was actually quite surreal, nobody really about. No groups at all, mostly fake joggers and cyclists, barely any cars on the road.
Half a dozen people orderly queuing outside the post office/supermarket and pharmacy with face masks on. Every one of these places now has multiple door staff Operating a one in person out policy. When I came into work at around 2pm from Bedfordshire I was one of about 6/7 on the train which again was surreal. Now going back home, literally the only sole on the train.
You’ll still get the cnuts (those in park today) but generally I think the British public have proved they do listen and do care and are shitting themselves.
I think Johnson's speech on Monday night was incredibly short of specifics and I'm angry that we're still waiting for them but the one thing he did achieve was making us all scared. I agree, people seemed to act differently today.
 

Shane88

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"A glorious death is more rewarding."

Lets see how glorious they find clawing for breath with a dozen tubes hanging out of their body.
 

SAred

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So another extremely low figure coming out of China, its a miracle really while the rest of the world burns. Something is not right with those figures.

The Chinese only lock downed Wuham but the virus was all over the country yet another miracle very little cases coming out of the rest of China. Not heard any reports of them doing a complete lockdown of the country and yet very few cases coming out not only of Wuham but all of China. Something is amiss with there figures.

Countries with far smaller populations are having deaths in there hundreds daily but good old China just about none. Its a miracle I tell you oh and a quite mention to the outstanding job being done in Russia another miracle.
 

0le

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So another extremely low figure coming out of China, its a miracle really while the rest of the world burns. Something is not right with those figures.

The Chinese only lock downed Wuham but the virus was all over the country yet another miracle very little cases coming out of the rest of China. Not heard any reports of them doing a complete lockdown of the country and yet very few cases coming out not only of Wuham but all of China. Something is amiss with there figures.

Countries with far smaller populations are having deaths in there hundreds daily but good old China just about none. Its a miracle I tell you oh and a quite mention to the outstanding job being done in Russia another miracle.
People are socially obediant in China and the lockdown there is more strictly enforced.
 

RedDevil@84

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US has has a pretty high rate of obesity related issues and illnesses among young adults. It is almost hilarious to even assume that the virus is going to affect only old people.
There are already cases of young people dying in more than one state.
 

SAred

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People are socially obediant in China and the lockdown there is more strictly enforced.
Social obedient or fear they may be, but your telling me that in a country of over 1.3 billion they have less deaths then people in Lombardy sure. Hell they tried to cover up the virus and even threatened the doctor who warmed the government to save face. Its a miracle I tell a miracle.
 

Revan

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So another extremely low figure coming out of China, its a miracle really while the rest of the world burns. Something is not right with those figures.

The Chinese only lock downed Wuham but the virus was all over the country yet another miracle very little cases coming out of the rest of China. Not heard any reports of them doing a complete lockdown of the country and yet very few cases coming out not only of Wuham but all of China. Something is amiss with there figures.

Countries with far smaller populations are having deaths in there hundreds daily but good old China just about none. Its a miracle I tell you oh and a quite mention to the outstanding job being done in Russia another miracle.
They are probably hiding numbers, considering that they have the tools to control the information. At the same time, it is very plausible that a large decrease in the number of infections (and deaths) has really happened here. Wuhan is still in lockdown after more than 2 months (while US is planning to reopen after 9 days of staying in a much more relaxed lockdown), and the people were more obedient to the rules (not going to parks, beaches and just not respecting the rules).

South Korea has 9k cases with most of them happening while European countries and US had only hundreds of cases, and yet they are doing now very well too. I believe their numbers better than those of any other country.

Russia is hiding numbers too but they also acted really early with respect to stopping people entering there. There has been an increase in pneumonia cases though, while clearly is because of covd-19. Of course they are going to deny it. As my Russian friend said sarcastically, 'this is just normal pneumonia season, nothing to see here'.
 

Eriku

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Social obedient or fear they may be, but your telling me that in a country of over 1.3 billion they have less deaths then people in Lombardy sure. Hell they tried to cover up the virus and even threatened the doctor who warmed the government to save face. Its a miracle I tell a miracle.
This old chestnut again.
 

SAred

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They are probably hiding numbers, considering that they have the tools to control the information. At the same time, it is very plausible that a large decrease in the number of infections (and deaths) has really happened here. Wuhan is still in lockdown after more than 2 months (while US is planning to reopen after 9 days of staying in a much more relaxed lockdown), and the people were more obedient to the rules (not going to parks, beaches and just not respecting the rules).

South Korea has 9k cases with most of them happening while European countries and US had only hundreds of cases, and yet they are doing now very well too.
South Korea have certainly shown the way and what they are doing is very commendable, but Chinese are sending out false information in the height of the problem in China there where less deaths in the whole of China then in Lombardy something is a miss from day one.

The Lockdown of which, I here in South Africa are about to enter a 3 week lockdown on Thursday is for the whole country not just a province how can we except to lockdown has long has Wuham without creating social disorder in a poor country we would not be able to cope and they would be murder on the dance floor.

Trump can not afford to keep a lockdown the whole of America going, its not just locking down one state like what happened in China but the whole place, people will die from many other instances not just a virus, stress is a killer amongst other things.

Governments throughout the world are going to be faced with some serious choices like in my country in 3 weeks time if the lockdown does not work not just Trump.
 

sammsky1

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I think Johnson's speech on Monday night was incredibly short of specifics and I'm angry that we're still waiting for them but the one thing he did achieve was making us all scared. I agree, people seemed to act differently today.
I think he wasn’t legally able to be more specific in that speech.

Eg: police being able to fine offenders disobeying orders required new law, hopefully being passed in Parliament on Thursday.
 

Eriku

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But was it not the truth did it not happen.
From what I understand he was summoned for questioning and pressured by local authorities, which can’t simply be equated with the Chinese state, who weren’t calling the shots in Wuhan that early in the game. Someone wrote pretty extensively about this earlier in the thread, but I can’t say I fancy sifting through a thread that’s growing exponentially for that particular post.

That they’ve tried to silence doctors who have been critical of the handling of the outbreak, on the other hand... so by all means, I’m not cheerleading for China in terms of transparency, I just wouldn’t say the claim that the early intimidation tactics toward Li Wenliang is a matter of firm fact.

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...-to-coronavirus-whistleblower?t=1585117079621

News of his death, coupled with accusations that the government was covering up the outbreak, triggered an avalanche of outrage from a wide cross-section of Chinese society. In response to popular demand, the central government dispatched investigators two days later to look into the circumstances surrounding his police reprimand and death.

Beijing's investigators now conclude that Wuhan authorities acted "inadequately" when they reprimanded the late doctor and failed to follow "proper law enforcement procedure." They did not, however, explain what the correct response should be.

Investigators also characterized his efforts to sound the alarm on the coronavirus as a positive influence that aided in raising awareness.

Shortly after the official findings were published, Wuhan police announced that the two officers responsible for improperly reprimanding Li have been disciplined.
 

Pexbo

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Pretty balanced talking from Graham. I hope that the bill passes soon. Less money to CEOs, but also this is not the time for Green New Deal or identity politics to be put on the bill. For now, everything should be focused on the virus.
Fair enough. Very balanced from Graham but it should also be said that it’s also not a good time to be putting an extention of the Presidential term limit into the bill for Trump and I really don’t see a good reason why the Republicans thought they could sneak into the bill a cut in funding to ICE detention centres and regulations relaxed so Hispanic detainees only need to be fed “once every four or five days”. Doesn’t seem like the time or place for these sort of demands.
 

Prometheus

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I don't buy the death lag, Italy was having much more deaths even a week ago. Also, the critical cases in US are only around a thousands. Even if all of them die (which is not gonna happen), still the number of deaths will be less than in Spain, despite that the number of infected is higher.
Wouldn't the number of critically ill be also lagging?
 

Volumiza

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Get the batons out.
My style of policing!

Oh I agree. But people have conditioned themselves to have whatever they want whenever they want and the tantrums are coming.
You’re so right and it repulses me.

I'd rather do what I've always done but equally I don't want to end up on a ventilator or condemn someone to a similar fate or worse.
precisely my thoughts too. It’s really not a lot we are being asked to do either is it? I mean really, it’s not a lot, and this situation already highlights how far down a really shitty and selfish path a lot of us have gone.
 

Revan

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Fair enough. Very balanced from Graham but it should also be said that it’s also not a good time to be putting an extention of the Presidential term limit into the bill for Trump and I really don’t see a good reason why the Republicans thought they could sneak into the bill a cut in funding to ICE detention centres and regulations relaxed so Hispanic detainees only need to be fed “once every four or five days”. Doesn’t seem like the time or place for these sort of demands.
Sure, agree. And that is the parts of the bill that need to be fought (in addition to making sure that the money given to companies don’t go to CEOs, stock buys, bonuses etc), not introducing their own bill which talks about diversity, climate change (something that needs to be taken seriously but not on this bill) or state elections.
 

Pexbo

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Sure, agree. And that is the parts of the bill that need to be fought (in addition to making sure that the money given to companies don’t go to CEOs, stock buys, bonuses etc), not introducing their own bill which talks about diversity, climate change (something that needs to be taken seriously but not on this bill) or state elections.
Oh shit you actually do take everything you’re told at face value.
 

SAred

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Quality control
From what I understand he was summoned for questioning and pressured by local authorities, which can’t simply be equated with the Chinese state, who weren’t calling the shots in Wuhan that early in the game. Someone wrote pretty extensively about this earlier in the thread, but I can’t say I fancy sifting through a thread that’s growing exponentially for that particular post.

That they’ve tried to silence doctors who have been critical of the handling of the outbreak, on the other hand... so by all means, I’m not cheerleading for China in terms of transparency, I just wouldn’t say the claim that the early intimidation tactics toward Li Wenliang is a matter of firm fact.

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...-to-coronavirus-whistleblower?t=1585117079621
I have only joined this thread now sorry did not fancy back tracking to page one. But you cant either prove the fact right or wrong or it did or did not happen.

There is so much false information out there its hard to believe what is right and what is not. Just like the figures coming out of China.
 

MackRobinson

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So another extremely low figure coming out of China, its a miracle really while the rest of the world burns. Something is not right with those figures.

The Chinese only lock downed Wuham but the virus was all over the country yet another miracle very little cases coming out of the rest of China. Not heard any reports of them doing a complete lockdown of the country and yet very few cases coming out not only of Wuham but all of China. Something is amiss with there figures.

Countries with far smaller populations are having deaths in there hundreds daily but good old China just about none. Its a miracle I tell you oh and a quite mention to the outstanding job being done in Russia another miracle.
Have you seen the extreme measures China is taking?

I saw the original video and I want to say it was posted around March 5th.
 

Eriku

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I have only joined this thread now sorry did not fancy back tracking to page one. But you cant either prove the fact right or wrong or it did or did not happen.

There is so much false information out there its hard to believe what is right and what is not. Just like the figures coming out of China.
I don’t blame you, that’s why I did a search and found the NPR article.

As you say, very hard to assess the veracity of these claims, but there’s certainly an element of doubt about Beijing directing how it was handled by local government.

Btw, you say what a coincidence that he’s dead, you do know he was a casualty of Covid-19?
 

Prometheus

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Look the Chinese have known to cover stuff up so why all of a sudden is this guys dying testament fake news, what a coincident he is no longer with us. but hell those figures coming out of China must be the truth honest.
Do some research and inform yourself first, please. Your post is coming across as a conspiracy rant (dying testament, implying that he was killed etc).
 

Wumminator

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Almost got into a massive fight about this last night.

Went for a drive yesterday just to see the emptiness really. As I was around there was one pub that had music playing and punters drinking outside.

Obviously I didn’t want to leave my car but drove by and told them they were all tossers. I fully expected some shit back, but two big lads calmly approached and said that I wasn’t to worry, they were affluent and likeminded people with the UK’s best interests at heart. Boy was I relieved!
 

Zlatan 7

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@Revan you’ve been in here talking shit for a while. I think you should start checking facts before you go posting things such as 9/10 and 90% Tested are asymptomatic So assuringly and then a few posts later saying oh shit I might be wrong.

Slow down, Fact check before spreading doom and false hope
 

Fener1907

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I'm not following here, what I said is factual, it's not an interpretation, here you have the Influenza updates from the WTO. Influenza activity increased in the northern emisphere in January, remained elevated in February and a decrease is noted in the March 16th report.

So I will say it one more time, during the previous months we have been in a period of high activity when it comes to the flu and Covid19 was also around.
Did I say that the flu hasn't been around? Did I say that statistics don't exist? Did I say that something existed that was neither the flu nor Covid-19?

I'm not at all sure what you're arguing against here.