SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

redshaw

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Went for a short walk this afternoon and heard people coughing in their gardens, a jogger on the other side of road coughed once, then a cyclist breathing heavily passed by about 7 metres away at the end of the road where we'd be soon.

I think the chances are incredibly small and would expect it to dissipate but you just never know what's around the corner, a heavily breathing cyclist could pass close by behind you, it can look quiet one minute but suddenly there's joggers and cyclists sweating and breathing hard.
 

Classical Mechanic

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Isn’t this basically the danger of this virus? It causes severe pneumonia.
Yes, it's not exclusive to this virus, it can happen at any time without Covid-19 is my point. I think it's important for young people to take precautions and respect social distancing but I don't think that worrying about it has much value. The real danger is passing it on to someone more vulnerable.
 

NinjaFletch

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Absolutely disgusted by the number of cars and people out and about when I walked to the shop earlier.
 

MadMike

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It's hard to keep up with this thread moving so quickly... has any explanation been given why Germany's deaths/cases ratio is so incredibly low?

Is it how they classify the deaths or is it that they are testing very widely and recording even people with mild symptoms? Or something else I haven't thought of?
 

Sarni

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Yes, it's not exclusive to this virus, it can happen at any time without Covid-19 is my point. I think it's important for young people to take precautions and respect social distancing but I don't think that worrying about it has much value. The real danger is passing it on to someone more vulnerable.
Agreed. I have been 'social distancing' for the last two weeks and I'm not really finding it that difficult to be honest. Of course I hope I'll be able to travel to Manchester for football in October/November this year again, that I'll be able to go to a pub with mates and watch football, or that basketball will be back so I can lose my sleep to watch playoffs but the current situation is not that difficult. There is still so much to do at home, I still get to walk my dog which is at least 1.5 hours activity per day, working from home has allowed me to be much more creative and productive than I am in the office with the whole team around me and I am one of the lucky ones who is still bringing home income despite not going to my workplace which I have to appreciate. I'm really more concerned about other people than myself and will try to help wherever I can, but I've chosen to help dog shelters for now because they are extremely screwed with lack of funding and lack of donations, and government is not going to help them.
 

Sandikan

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People who are assuming that this will affect only very old people are just being naive. It is going to affect all.
And there are many youngsters (<40) who have different illness related to obesity, undergoing treatments of different kinds including mild cancer and all. All of them are in the so called vulnerable list.
It probably didn't help that the media laboured the point so constantly that "old" people are most at risk.

A lot of people (wrongly) took that as meaning for younger people it's less of a risk, and thus not a risk really. Just like flu etc.

People are starting to get that's totally wrong now.
 

Ekkie Thump

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It's hard to keep up with this thread moving so quickly... has any explanation been given why Germany's deaths/cases ratio is so incredibly low?

Is it how they classify the deaths or is it that they are testing very widely and recording even people with mild symptoms? Or something else I haven't thought of?
I think it's that wide testing from the outset has allowed them to get in front of the disease. They're finding people with milder symptoms but also those at an earlier stage which are yet to impact the number of deaths. They also have relatively shit hot coverage when it comes to ICU availability.
 

massi83

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Data models in Italy have put the R0 as high as 5.6 in late February when the virus was circulating unchecked, and it's currently estimated to be around 1.3-1.5 based on cases confirmed yesterday i.e cases acquired a week ago.
Are there any estimates how many people have had it in total in Lombardia and in italy? Are they 5%/10%/20%40% through the whole epidemia (in numbers, not time)
 

Pagh Wraith

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It's hard to keep up with this thread moving so quickly... has any explanation been given why Germany's deaths/cases ratio is so incredibly low?

Is it how they classify the deaths or is it that they are testing very widely and recording even people with mild symptoms? Or something else I haven't thought of?
They test way more than other countries. Specifically more young people and people with mild symptoms. Average age of people tested in Germany is ~45, in Italy and the UK it is ~65. Germany's death rate is therefore much more accurate. But probably still way off as the true number of infections is higher in reality.

They don't classify deaths any differently. This has been denied by officials when they were asked about it in press conferences.
 
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F-Red

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The part I quoted from link you provided.
Ok, sorry not trying to sound facetious but what are you after from them? To close down the workplace? They're a school so they should have some elements of essential work to them, especially if there are kids of essential workers.

The bit i don't think they should be promoting is that if someone has symptoms of coronavirus is that they come into work (not sure if they're saying that from their story). Equally SSP for Coronavirus specifically is agreed with the government, this is on the proviso that this company pays you directly (not freelance or self employed), they cannot hold this back from you unless they have doubts and begin an investigation, which is not going to happen given the severity.
 

Sarni

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Shark

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To exercise on their own.

Not to sit on benches, not to play football, not to lie on the grass.
Yep, was just around in my local park for a quick run and used the grass, not the paths but there’s still droves of kids bunches kicking footballs around the place and riding bikes together. Some parents are treating this thing like a holiday.
 

11101

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That would be enough to crash the mortgage/life insurance market surely? Especially if the fatality rate is higher as it is closer to 40
I was talking about this with a friend who is high up at one of the big insurers. He says the exposure is less than people think because they have unders and overs in different areas. Health and life insurance will get hit hard, but there will be a lot less accidents, thefts and other such events due to the lockdowns.

Are there any estimates how many people have had it in total in Lombardia and in italy? Are they 5%/10%/20%40% through the whole epidemia (in numbers, not time)
I'm not sure what you mean. The head of the public response said yesterday they estimate there may be 10x more cases than they know about in Italy. The numbers in the last 3 days have shown mild improvement but even if it holds, it's still very much at the top of the peak rather than coming down the other side.
 

DOTA

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Why can't kids from one household kick a football for an hour?
They theoretically can. In a perfect world they should. It would be impossible to control though.
 

redshaw

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Netherlands situation not looking good for 17 million population, 356 deaths
 

Smores

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1 in 20 in the most vulnerable group that covid19 affects would have died within 1 year regardless of covid19. So of that 1.5 million, that's 75,000. I'm using the 1.5 million that the government sent the letter to telling them to stay in for 3 weeks.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-51979654
There's some really odd lines in that BBC article.

"Every year more than 500,000 people die in England and Wales - factor in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the figure is around 600,000.

The coronavirus deaths will not be in addition to these."

That isn't what the study says at all. It also pitches 10% infected as some upper limit but again PHE see that several times higher.
 
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DOTA

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I agree the new balls are light as feck but you can work on your close control and get better.
I've long advocated a return to the old Mitre balls.

They presumably cause brain damage but we had none of this 'hitting the valve' nonsense.
 

golden_blunder

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In ireland a group of teenagers surrounded a female jogger and kept coughing at her. She happens to be a nurse. Why are teens such little scumbags?
 

blue blue

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Can't believe the Government hasn't closed all major non-essential building sites. The workers are spreading the Virus around on sites. The 2m rule is a nonsense on a building site and just doesn't happen. There are also a multitude of surfaces that don't get cleaned yet everybody touches them. Temporary handrails, scaffold poles, ladders etc. The welfare provisions on sites are filthy and it's obvious the workers are at a very high risk. There will be many cases in the industry just when the peak comes.

The main contractors are not closing all the sites and many remain open. The self employed continue to work because the government hasn't promised any financial help and they need to feed their families. They literally have a hand to mouth existance so have no choice but to continue working to get paid. MAny are scared yet still continue to work. Its horrendous and so many say keep tot the 2m rule.

2m Doesn't work. Close the sites or give self employed assistance now. Its too late for many already but do something now!
 

massi83

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I was talking about this with a friend who is high up at one of the big insurers. He says the exposure is less than people think because they have unders and overs in different areas. Health and life insurance will get hit hard, but there will be a lot less accidents, thefts and other such events due to the lockdowns.



I'm not sure what you mean. The head of the public response said yesterday they estimate there may be 10x more cases than they know about in Italy. The numbers in the last 3 days have shown mild improvement but even if it holds, it's still very much at the top of the peak rather than coming down the other side.
So, there are 30.700 cases in Lombardy. Let's say real number is 20x bigger=600k. 10M people in Lombardy, so that makes 6%. Let's say in the end 30% of people will get it this year. So 5 times more infections to come. Some calculations like this, don't think about my actual numbers too much.