SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Carolina Red · Mar 31, 2020

We are a joke of a country for allowing this*...

https://thehill.com/regulation/cour...tening-to-fire-workers-for-speaking-out-about

Hospitals threatening to fire workers for speaking out about coronavirus shortages: report

At least two health care workers have been fired after speaking out about the need for more coronavirus tests and protective equipment as hospitals across the country warn doctors and nurses not to publicize pandemic-fueled shortages of medical supplies.

An emergency room doctor in Washington state was fired last week after criticizing working conditions at his hospital where he had worked for 17 years, and a Chicago nurse was fired after warning colleagues their assigned masks offered inadequate protection against coronavirus, according to reports.

“Nurses and other health care workers are being muzzled in an attempt by hospitals to preserve their image,” said Ruth Schubert, a spokesperson for the Washington State Nurses Association. “No health care worker should face being disciplined or fired for speaking the truth.”

*among other things

Skills · Mar 31, 2020

Snafu17 said:
There's no way a full lockdown lasts more than 2/3 months, for better or worse.

I don't that's the intent behind it anyway. The lockdown is there to get the cases back to a manageable level again where it's feasible to test & contact trace the infected. I imagine things such as travel & mass gatherings to remain restricted, but most of normal life will resume.

Dr. StrangeHate · Mar 31, 2020

Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Well not when you consider that a large chunk of those deaths would by all accounts over Europe, be part of those overall death statistics at the end of the year regardless.

What accounts?
They have underlying conditions in most cases but we don't know if any of those underlying conditions would have resulted in death this year. It might be the case but we don't know yet unless there is a study I missed.

Regulus Arcturus Black · Mar 31, 2020

Skills said:
The lockdown is there to get the cases back to a manageable level again where it's feasible to test & contact trace the infected.

Do you really think that’s feasible for an entire nation of 65m?

Arruda · Mar 31, 2020

RobinLFC said:
They won't be able to keep the people in their homes for the rest of 2020. People would riot during the summer.

People who are home and well will riot when they know that will likely lead to them being infected whilst at the same time their health system will collapse?

Unlikely assumption IMO, if the government can still cater to basic needs.

I think the lifting of lockdown measures will be very gradual, and only when health systems have returned to a basic level of normal functioning. It's the only thing that makes sense.

Skills · Mar 31, 2020

Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Do you really think that’s feasible for an entire nation of 65m?

Yes. I'd get it if you were talking about 1.3bn people in India where for a significant chunk of people there isn't even a record of them even being alive, but in the west it's doable.

Virgil · Mar 31, 2020

Kentonio said:
I thought Derbyshire police putting black dye in the Buxton lagoon was a bit shitty. Stopping people to make sure they have good reasons to be out is one thing, but fecking with the landscape to make it less appealing just seems like an asshole move.

Its not the first time they have done this. The water is toxic yet is a favourite place to congregate. They probably would have dyed it even without the threat of Covid19. IMHO it is a non event and certainly nothing to get upset about in these difficult times.

Prometheus · Mar 31, 2020

Sky1981 said:
Unless you're homeless with no relatives (which is very rare in china), your family would be bound to at least ask how are you doing in the hospital, if you're deceased the government would release the names (data, initials, etc). I don't think it's possible for China to detain the names, if they erase it out of thin air people would start questioning what happens with their loved ones.

Say you're my uncle, you're hospitalized, I sure as hell would check up on you. If you die and the government decides you're one of the names they won't divulge then you can be sure I will raise the issue.

China isn't north korea, there are reporters there from all over the world. There are expats, there are other nation's ambassadors, tourist, attache, etc. If there are foul play we'd be hearing more concrete accusations from many other nations.

Wuhan has like 10-12M? people? If the number is much higher say 2x or 3x the official reports, there's no way that city would hold, the contagion spreadings would be 3x-4x. China released 100k positives, if you suspect there will be more people sick than hospitals, chaos would ensue, long ques outside hospital, people dying etc. And so far that hasn't happened or we would have known.

Well said.

RobinLFC · Mar 31, 2020

Arruda said:
People who are home and well will riot when they know that will likely lead to them being infected whilst at the same time their health system will collapse?

Unlikely assumption IMO, if the government can still cater to basic needs.

I think the lifting of lockdown measures will be very gradual, and only when health systems have returned to a basic level of normal functioning. It's the only thing that makes sense.

I don't mean riot in the usual meaning, but they would simply find backdoor routes to escape the measures or don't follow them at all. Even know we still have young people throwing lockdown parties every weekend, in the midst of the crisis. Can only imagine what it's gonna be like in the summer if everyone still needs to stay inside by then. During summer you'd have people going over to their friends for BBQs and stuff (walking in the streets is allowed so who's gonna stop them from walking to another house anyway), and it will just have been to long (lockdown for 4 months) for the people to still follow the rules without complaint. Right now it's "easy" because most know it's necessary and for the greater good, but by then, they'll have developed a "feck it" mentality, especially those who aren't exactly likely to die or greatly suffer from it should they still get Covid-19.

Definitely agree that the measures will be lifted gradually. There's been talk here of schools re-opening first (as soon as after the Easter holidays is on table right now, which is April 19th), then employees getting back to work again (mid-May?) and pubs/bars/restaurants will be opened lastly (rightfully so). Regarding mass events like festivals, can't see them taking place anymore in summer or even behind that in 2020. At this point I'd be delighted to be able to throw a legal garden party or BBQ in July or August with my friends.

DoomSlayer · Mar 31, 2020

Arruda said:
What alternative would you propose in that scenario, out of curiosity (assuming it's beyond the capabilities of regular police forces)?

I honestly don't have the means nor the expertise to give you a reasonable answer. The world leaders must take responsibility for being inadequate and not making the right decisions for the sake of the whole populace.

As I said previously, if things don't change drastically soon, I can see a huge shift in policies in the whole European Union. My country is the poorest in the EU and we simply cannot survive this due to so many factors, one of which is that our political system has been incredibly corrupt since the changes in 1989 after the fall of the Soviet Union (not that it wasn't corrupt before that, but it's a different topic altogether). It's very realistic that in 2-3 weeks, people will start to question how are they going to survive and it will get very ugly.

We only have 399 official cases of the virus with 8 people confirmed to have passed after having severe symptoms. But the lockdown has been severe for 2 weeks now, mainly because our health system has been organised extremely bad and is being ran to the ground by the corrupt governments. The government now passed a bill to take a €5 billion loan, because apparently we already have no money left, though it was proclaimed throughout the years how incredibly good the fiscal policy has been and how our economic growth was one of the best in Europe. In reality, none of that is true and the leaders purposefully skew the statistics and the only who benefit are the financial and criminal structures, that have influence or are influenced by the political figures in power. The majority of small and medium sized businesses live month by month, they already are burdened by loans, mortgages, overdrafts, investments in goods or all sorts of tools for their work. It will be a total nightmare very soon and the only measures proposed by the government is more loans basically. Our financial minister had the audacity to say that this crisis will weed out the inefficient and ineffective businesses of those that don't have the financial resource to survive, whilst the same person has been publicly accused of corruption, but of course no action was taken because he is part of the ruling party and ruling elite.

Stanley Road · Mar 31, 2020

My brother's gf has been in hospital for 2 weeks with pneumonia but tested negative for corona.

A hospital worker we know was at home sick with flu symptoms, she was asked if she had a fever, ahe said no. Was told to go back to work and after feeling worse she tested positive and has infected many people in the hospital.

When will employers stop thinking about the bottom line and become human?

golden_blunder · Mar 31, 2020

fishfingers15 said:
Surely the China numbers look less and less likely? But I fully acknolwedge that I have no facts to back it up but more of logical conclusion, stepping into conspiracy theories.

I don’t trust them either. They had it for weeks before the world copped on imho.

golden_blunder · Mar 31, 2020

Stanley Road said:
My brother's gf has been in hospital for 2 weeks with pneumonia but tested negative for corona.

A hospital worker we know was at home sick with flu symptoms, she was asked if she had a fever, ahe said no. Was told to go back to work and after feeling worse she tested positive and has infected many people in the hospital.

When will employers stop thinking about the bottom line and become human?

Never probably

17 Van der Gouw · Mar 31, 2020

TheReligion said:
It's really pissed me off, along with that Lord trying to get his name in the media by piping up about it.

Do people think any of us actually enjoy being in work at the moment? Having to deal with people suspected of having the virus, those that have died in the community and going into house after house dealing with other incidents placing ourselves and our loved ones at risk? We'd love to work from home, protect our families and keep ourselves out of harm's way yet we have a job to do like other key workers. This bizarre criticism will damage morale.

I'm sorry to hear that. Have you been briefed to act any differently today?

Honestly it's a terrible way to treat you. The NHS is being rightly and unanimously praised, meanwhile the police are continuing to risk contracting Covid whilst having to deal with the normal hazards and dangers of policing at the same time, yet people are shitting on them for doing their best in a very difficult situation.

For what it's worth, I'm grateful. Cheers.

OleBoiii · Mar 31, 2020

Not sure if it's posted yet: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

TLDR; the new estimated death rate for this virus is 0.66%. This is about 6.6 times higher than the death rate of regular flu. For young people it's significantly lower, for old people significantly higher.

Regulus Arcturus Black · Mar 31, 2020

Dr. StrangeHate said:
What accounts?
They have underlying conditions in most cases but we don't know if any of those underlying conditions would have resulted in death this year. It might be the case but we don't know yet unless there is a study I missed.

@Dr. StrangeHate The elderly with underlying conditions are at the greatest risk of dying if infected with this virus.

I can only speak for Sweden but of the 180 deaths, 75 were aged 80-90 and 41 aged 90+, with underlying conditions.

So yes, this demographic with underlying conditions, many were likely to be in the numbers of deaths for this year. I’ve little doubt it mirrors everywhere.

Regulus Arcturus Black · Mar 31, 2020

Stanley Road said:
My brother's gf has been in hospital for 2 weeks with pneumonia but tested negative for corona.

A hospital worker we know was at home sick with flu symptoms, she was asked if she had a fever, ahe said no. Was told to go back to work and after feeling worse she tested positive and has infected many people in the hospital.

When will employers stop thinking about the bottom line and become human?

Does the employer pay the sick leave Stan?

Sweet Square · Mar 31, 2020

17 Van der Gouw said:
Am I the only one who has no problem with the police going overboard with enforcing the lockdown?

The media are now going after the police, saying it's heavy handed to clamp down on people driving to remote locations for exercise. It has even lead to the government to tell the police not to be so heavy handed.

As far as I'm concerned, the cops can't be heavy handed enough. People have behaved like idiots. Telling the police to back down and let people carry on being idiots sends the wrong message.

Yeah there's no way this sort of stuff could back fire on us in the future. I mean I'm sure handing over more powers to the police has throughout history being a perfectly fine thing to do. The fact is not everyone has a good relationship with the police(Even though I live in tory land central, my local force are sadly bell ends of the highest order). I get that you're scared but come on.

Rado_N · Mar 31, 2020

How is it possible that planes full of people are arriving in the UK with absolutely no screening whatsoever?

massi83 · Mar 31, 2020

OleBoiii said:
Not sure if it's posted yet: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

TLDR; the new estimated death rate for this virus is 0.66%. This is about 6.6 times higher than the death rate of regular flu. For young people it's significantly lower, for old people significantly higher.

The death rate for flu isn't constant among different age groups. The chance of dying is a lot higher for people aged 20-40 from covid compared to flu. Really, really small in both cases obviously.

Di Maria's angel · Mar 31, 2020

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/31/boy-13-youngest-person-die-coronavirus-uk-12486740/

Daily mail reporting it too.

sullydnl · Mar 31, 2020

17 more people dead in Ireland.

Snafu17 · Mar 31, 2020

RobinLFC said:
Definitely agree that the measures will be lifted gradually. There's been talk here of schools re-opening first (as soon as after the Easter holidays is on table right now, which is April 19th), then employees getting back to work again (mid-May?) and pubs/bars/restaurants will be opened lastly (rightfully so). Regarding mass events like festivals, can't see them taking place anymore in summer or even behind that in 2020. At this point I'd be delighted to be able to throw a legal garden party or BBQ in July or August with my friends.

Our (Slovenia's) government has been indicating that they'll be going in the opposite direction. The logic behind it being that the kids are effective spreaders. So imagine the schools won't be the first thing to open. I assume the public transport (it's been suspended here for a couple of weeks now) and non-essential businesses will be the first thing to restart. Any sort of events/mass gatherings will be banned for quite a while.

Kentonio · Mar 31, 2020

NinjaFletch said:
If it was actually anything of value then I'd agree, but it's a toxic, acidic literal dump that happens to have turned a nice colour through sheer chance of all the rubbish corroding in it.

Ah! Didn’t know that! I’d never heard of the place, it just came up on a news story and looked like they had been polluting a natural beauty spot.

Smores · Mar 31, 2020

I do find it 'amusing' to see the Fox News Daily Mail lot suddenly worried about people potentially being in poverty. Such a caring bunch who knew!

Regulus Arcturus Black · Mar 31, 2020

Rado_N said:
How is it possible that planes full of people are arriving in the UK with absolutely no screening whatsoever?

Aren’t you on lockdown? If someone has a temperature, what are you gonna do with them?

Shane88 · Mar 31, 2020

sullydnl said:
17 more people dead in Ireland.

Disappointing leap from yesterday.

Is there any stats available for us regarding the age of those dying?

sullydnl · Mar 31, 2020

Shane88 said:
Disappointing leap from yesterday.

Is there any stats available for us regarding the age of those dying?

They said the median age of that 17 was 84 anyway.

Revan · Mar 31, 2020

redshaw said:
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date

The UK is failing on testing. The US is testing daily near as much as the UK has tested in total. The number of deaths in the US is twice as high, but the official number of infected people is 7 times as high. The US has much more infected people than claiming.

Klopper76 · Mar 31, 2020

Horrible news.

Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date

Rado_N · Mar 31, 2020

Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Aren’t you on lockdown? If someone has a temperature, what are you gonna do with them?

Isolate them beyond the current basic guidance. The vast majority of transmission in China was inside households.

17 Van der Gouw · Mar 31, 2020

Sweet Square said:
Yeah there's no way this sort of stuff could back fire on us in the future. I mean I'm sure handing over more powers to the police has throughout history being a perfectly fine thing to do. The fact is not everyone has a good relationship with the police(Even though I live in tory land central, my local force are sadly bell ends of the highest order). I get that you're scared but come on.

Except we've done it repeatedly during times of crisis, and in fairness this is an unprecedented situation which requires unique and extreme measures. It's nothing to do with 'being scared' - the public is an ass, this has been proven repeatedly in recent weeks with 'muh leisure time' incidents. This is about keeping people off of hospital venitlators, it couldn't really be any more serious; but sure, you just carry on with your vacuuous sweeping statements about your local constabulary.

We're asking the impossible of a police force who in the main has shown restraint and only used the legislation as a last resort, then criticising them because people can't follow rules and common sense.

Stanley Road · Mar 31, 2020

Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Does the employer pay the sick leave Stan?

Our insurance companies do at the end of the day

Alabaster Codify7 · Mar 31, 2020

RobinLFC said:
Johnson&Johnson is now "cautiously optimistic" to have a vaccine ready at the start of 2021, so might be significantly less than 12-18 months.

I also don't think the strict lockdown will last anywhere near 6 months tbh. Social distancing could probably be a thing for the rest of the year or so but the economy and people working will pick up again before summer.

Totally agree. By early summer, things will be slowly getting back to 'normal' - very slowly, but happening nonetheless.

Honestly, if the plan was to have the world in lockdown for 12-18months, we may as well all just walk outside and roll the dice now because I'll tell you something - there won't be a world left to fecking save. The entire world economy and everything that goes with it will disintegrate, there will be no jobs to go back to for anyone, the planet would essentially be back to medieval times. Hand to mouth.

It is never in a million years going to happen. I would bet anything I have (which isnt a great deal to be fair) on society beginning to return to normal by June - slowly but steadily.

Dve · Mar 31, 2020

In a new report from Imperial College, the Corona virus is estimated to be 6.6 times more deadly than the flu. This means that 0.66% of people infected (included those with no symptoms) will die, which is a significant lower death rate than first feared. The chance to die rapidly raises with age, however, and among those older then 80, the death rate is estimated to be 13.4%, and 8.6% in the age group 70-79.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

The study correlates with another study from Harvard:

https://files.springernature.com/ge...aTKxnHnehRLWlPX4GFr8c6Vbi+yE4hgPzCu7ffaQiUg==

Sweet Square · Mar 31, 2020

17 Van der Gouw said:
Except we've done it repeatedly during times of crisis,

And it's back fired repeatedly. Again we are talking about a institution with a awful awful track record.

17 Van der Gouw said:
This is about keeping people off of hospital venitlators, it couldn't really be any more serious;

Yeah people going for dog walk or shops selling easter eggs isn't the reason for the crisis of hospital ventilators(Maybe you should be asking why we have a shortage of hospital ventilators in the first place ?)The vast majority of the public are following the current government guide lines.

17 Van der Gouw said:
We're asking the impossible of a police force who in the main has shown restraint and only used the legislation as a last resort, then criticising them because people can't follow rules and common sense.

I might get you're complaint if people were actively advocating for stopping the police force working or advocating people go against officers but no one is doing that. People are simply criticising a government institution that has historical abused it's power for recent bizarre abuses of power. Again you need to think of the bigger picture.

Skills · Mar 31, 2020

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52095331

Rather than a novel app, surely it's easier to get android/apple and the network providers to do this? They already have the capability sitting there already and are much better at it. Maps for instance wherever I've been, how much traffic there is on my way to work etc.

I think eventually, they'll have to roll out something like a "pass" for if you've been clear for X number of weeks. They'll have to increase testing capacity to do this, but I imagine you can test kids in school every month or so (stagger who gets tested over the course of a month). Employees who have to be in office/site can also be tested every X number of weeks. It gives you a decent shot of finding as many cases as you can.

C'est Moi Cantona · Mar 31, 2020

Rado_N said:
How is it possible that planes full of people are arriving in the UK with absolutely no screening whatsoever?

Is that fact? And even if it is they'll be told to follow the same strict guidelines we all are doing right now anyway.

redshaw · Mar 31, 2020

United Kingdom Dates	UK Deaths	Italy Dates	Italy Deaths	Spain Dates	Spain Deaths	France Dates	France Deaths	Germany Dates	Germany Deaths	USA Dates	USA Deaths
Mar 8th	3	Feb-23rd	3	Mar 5th	3	Mar 2nd	3	Mar 11th	3	Mar 1st	2
Mar 9th	5	Feb 24th	7	Mar 6th	8	Mar 3rd	4	Mar 12th	5	Mar 2nd	6
Mar 10th	6	Feb 25th	11	Mar 7th	10	Mar 4th	4	Mar 13th	8	Mar 3rd	9
Mar 11th	8	Feb 26th	12	Mar 8th	17	Mar 5th	7	Mar 14th	8	Mar 4th	11
Mar 12th	10	Feb 27th	17	Mar 9th	30	Mar 6th	9	Mar 15th	12	Mar 5th	11
Mar 13th	11	Feb 28th	21	Mar 10th	36	Mar 7th	16	Mar 16th	12	Mar 6th	14
Mar 14th	21	Feb 29th	29	Mar 11th	55	Mar 8th	19	Mar 17th	12	Mar 7th	19
Mar 15th	35	Mar 1st	41	Mar 12th	86	Mar 9th	30	Mar 18th	12	Mar 8th	21
Mar 16th	55	Mar 2nd	52	Mar 13th	133	Mar 10th	33	Mar 19th	20	Mar 9th	26
Mar 17th	71	Mar 3rd	79	Mar 14th	196	Mar 11th	48	Mar 20th	31	Mar 10th	31
Mar 18th	104	Mar 4th	107	Mar 15th	294	Mar 12th	61	Mar 21st	47	Mar 11th	37
Mar 19th	144	Mar 5th	148	Mar 16th	342	Mar 13th	79	Mar-22nd	55	Mar 12th	41
Mar 20th	177	Mar 6th	197	Mar 17th	533	Mar 14th	91	Mar 23rd	86	Mar 13th	49
Mar 21st	233	Mar 7th	233	Mar 18th	638	Mar 15th	127	Mar 24th	114	Mar 14th	55
Mar 22nd	281	Mar 8th	366	Mar 19th	833	Mar 16th	148	Mar 25th	149	Mar 15th	62
Mar 23rd	335	Mar 9th	463	Mar 20th	1,093	Mar 17th	175	Mar 26th	198	Mar 16th	76
Mar 24th	422	Mar 10th	631	Mar 21st	1,381	Mar 18th	244	Mar 27th	253	Mar 17th	97
Mar 25th	468	Mar 11th	827	Mar 22nd	1,813	Mar 19th	372	Mar 28th	325	Mar 18th	123
Mar 26th	578	Mar 12th	1,016	Mar 23rd	2,207	Mar 20th	450	Mar 29th	389	Mar19th	175
Mar 27th	759	Mar 13th	1,266	Mar 24th	2,696	Mar 21st	562	Mar 30th	455	Mar 20th	230
Mar 28th	1,019	Mar 14th	1,441	Mar 25th	3,434	Mar 22nd	674	Mar 31st	600	Mar 21st	298
Mar 29th	1,228	Mar 15th	1,809	Mar 26th	4,145	Mar 23rd	860			Mar 22nd	408
Mar 30th	1,408	Mar 16th	2,158	Mar 27th	4,858	Mar 24th	1100			Mar 23rd	519
Mar 31st	1,789	Mar 17th	2,503	Mar 28th	5,690	Mar 25th	1331			Mar 24th	681
		Mar 18th	2,978	Mar 29th	6,528	Mar 26th	1,696			Mar 25th	906
		Mar 19th	3,405	Mar 30th	7,340	Mar 27th	1,995			Mar 26th	1,159
		Mar 20th	4,032	Mar 31st	8,189	Mar 28th	2,314			Mar 27th	1,592
		Mar 21st	4,825			Mar 29th	2,606			Mar 28th	2,039
		Mar 22nd	5,475			Mar 30th	3,024			Mar 29th	2,452
		Mar 23rd	6,077			Mar 31st	3,523			Mar 30th	2,968
		Mar 24th	6,820

France had a 499 jump today.

Lj82 · Mar 31, 2020

Penna said:
And this from California, translated from La Repubblica:

The American health care system is truly immoral.

SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

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