So many useless statistics right now though, what does "cases" even mean? You have some countries like Germany and Norway doing a tremendous job of testing as many as possible, and some not doing at all unless people are pretty much hospitalised.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
because there is feck all testing IMO and only the more critical cases are reported. Many that are treated at home and again not tested aren't in the equation as well.
Generally the most usable data is from the countries that test the most and you have a larger excerpt.
It's an absolute nightmare and so sad. I have a feeling this report from SVT is going to be a massive shock to us all about just how much that one area of Stockholm has been affected.
Kenya for example was very proactive. Even with only 3 cases, they did a lockdown. No one is able to enter the country.
Quarantined like 7,000 people so far.
Red states gonna red.The small island of grey in the middle of red NC is where I stay
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/02/us/coronavirus-social-distancing.html
That is because UK is not plateauing like Spain wasn't 1-2 weeks ago. Spain is plateauing now (due to % reduction) due to measures implemented. UK, even following a lower path is not assured that will plateau anytime because it will depend on their measures implemented and only future will tell. So we can't say that UK it will be plateauing. The author is saying that US and UK are at risk because they numbers in their 2 most infected areas are ramping up and for now nothing indicates that will plateau. Will need to wait till there is any simptoms
Or maybe I didn't understand what are you trying to tell me
What puzzles me is that if testing is so important why is Japan apparently doing so well? There seems to be too much guesswork being passed off as fact around the world. Rather like we are now being told that face masks might not be as Beneficial as we were led to believe. I do have this suspicion that when it’s all over there will be an awful lot of if only we had known that
All of the above. But Africa is going to get hit bad. It won't take much before it's a massive crisis.
There are plenty of other killer deseases in Africa - so there hasn't ( yet ) been the same sense of outrage and fear that we've seen in Europe, USA, Australaia, etc.
Doesn't mean that COVID-19 won't eventually surpass them all in terms of death and economic destruction, but for now the main areas of infection appear to be those countries where it has been introduced by home visiting emigrants - look at the numbers for Francophone Africa here
https://africanarguments.org/2020/0...rica-tracker-how-many-cases-and-where-latest/
As for the future, my own opinion is that the economic fall out in Africa would set the continenet back generations, not years or even decades, if the spread can't be contained. And containment is about money and health infrasructure, two things which have always been in short supply for 99%+ Africans. There are certainly plans, good intenetions and even some experience looking at what has and continues to happen outside of Africa, but if you believe European, Asian and American Governments have been unable to contribute much to preventing where we all are now, try to think of even one single way that African Governements could do it better on such limited resources.
https://africanarguments.org/2020/0...-rests-on-two-things-markets-money-transfers/
Yes, you've completely misunderstood. My whole point was Spain was in a upwards trajectory and not plateauing 1-2 weeks ago, not sure how it could be more clear but I'll leave it there.
I’ve spent many a week in the Alps myself over the years, before kids/knee knack curtailed my snowboarding career and the big resorts are teeming with people from all over Europe. No idea on numbers but it never seemed as though there were many more Swedes than any other nationality. For example, google tells me that 1.5 million Brits go skiing every year. The fact this kicked off in that region during peak ski season was a fecking disaster for everyone.
There are so many details about this pandemic that you wouldn’t believe if someone wrote it in a movie script. Here’s another cracker. When ITUs around the world are simultaneously deeply in the shit, they will start running out of the medicines most used in ITU. Guess the two regions in the world that manufacture more of these medicines than any other? China and the Lombardy region of Italy!
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@Regulus Arcturus Black
You're missing the mark for several reasons:
1. In the case of Norway, just as many corona cases came from Austria as from Italy. We literally couldn't have had the winter break in Oslo at a worse time, as it was deemed unsafe to travel to Austria one week after people came back(my boss was one of them). Had the break been a week earlier, then they would have missed the outbreak. A week later, and they wouldn't have been able to travel there.
2. Secondly, you overrate the significance of the Norwegian winter break. The Norwegian winter break is really just a thing for parents of kids between the age of 6 and 19. For everyone else it's just a normal week. I think most of the people who traveled to Italy and Austria during that time did it regardless of the "winter break". It's basically viewed as a "second easter", because the weather is nicer in the mountains down south. A lot of people will also dodge the winter break week(s) because prices may jump during that time.
3. The Norwegian winter break is technically 2 weeks, not 1. In order for the country to not "shut down", one half of the country will have their vacation one week, and the other half the next.
Bottom line: Sweden hasn't been more unlucky than Norway. They just chose to do their own thing, and it seems like it didn't work(though it might change over time of course)
You're missing the mark for several reasons:
1. In the case of Norway, just as many corona cases came from Austria as from Italy. We literally couldn't have had the winter break in Oslo at a worse time, as it was deemed unsafe to travel to Austria one week after people came back(my boss was one of them). Had the break been a week earlier, then they would have missed the outbreak. A week later, and they wouldn't have been able to travel there.
2. Secondly, you overrate the significance of the Norwegian winter break. The Norwegian winter break is really just a thing for parents of kids between the age of 6 and 19. For everyone else it's just a normal week. I think most of the people who traveled to Italy and Austria during that time did it regardless of the "winter break". It's basically viewed as a "second easter", because the weather is nicer in the mountains down south. A lot of people will also dodge the winter break week(s) because prices may jump during that time.
3. The Norwegian winter break is technically 2 weeks, not 1. In order for the country to not "shut down", one half of the country will have their vacation one week, and the other half the next.
Bottom line: Sweden hasn't been more unlucky than Norway. They just chose to do their own thing, and it seems like it didn't work(though it might change over time of course)
Thats the really frightening thing. If current thinking is right and it’s all down to testing and social distancing then with such limited resources god help Africa if it takes hold because from what we have seen so far all nations have been very insular In their approach.
I heard a pretty bleak take on why developing countries might not be hit too hard. They don’t typically live long enough, or have access to adequate healthcare to end up with a large elderly/frail population. So their mortality rate might be a hell of a lot lower than we will see in wealthier countries.
That is bleak but in a perverse sort of way I hope it’s accurate.
When you think best case estimates on deaths were around 20k, we're already over 10% there. Hopefully things don't spiral and get anywhere near 200k which was the worst case scenario (on account of no lockdowns and everyone just moving freely).
All the best @Hernandez - BFA
Lack of testing... Wait for it...
Meh. Pretty low mortality rate thus far.
Kate McCann reminds me of Susie Dent. Both the way she looks and the way she sounds.
Maddie's mother?!
I live in a country like this and I'd say the assessment is spot on. However the younger generations are also full of people with terrible immune system, alcoholics, drug users and what not. Our older generation may not be hit so much but the 16-30 and 31-45 are the 2 age groups with most cases here.
Some of the stories leading in the UK now around the type of (low quality) items being desperately procured and politicians/members of the media not understanding the good reasons for delays in figures is strongly suggesting control being slowly lost and panic setting in. It feels the grip on following the science and experts is slipping.
3) Ditto in Sweden OF COURSE but over a month. Our biggest area (Stockholm) had it in the Italy horror week.
2) Semester week for schools in an area of almost 1.4 million Swedes isn’t overrating anything. That’s when the vast majority of people can travel.
Common sense stuff that though.
1) How many cases in Austria at end of Oslo week? More than the 1700 in Italy at the end of Stockholm week.
The answer to the question above @OleBoiii is ZERO. So yes, Oslo absolutely could have had it at a worse time, the following week, when Stockholm had theirs.
The UK and Ireland also had their in the week ending 23rd Feb.
So hell yes Stockholm got unlucky with the timing there, as did anywhere that had their half term or school semesters that week... it’s not even debatable man. Oslo most likely got a little lucky.
The thing is mate, it's an utterly incomplete data-set, so this idea some posters have of acting like this is the hunger games and trying to judge so early into this pandemic which country is coming out top is bizarre and quite frankly, disturbing.
We'll never know how many UK, Norwegian, Irish, French, Dutch citizens had this virus when the shit hit the fan in Italy. It could be the case that the UK already had 40,000 people walking around like an uncontrollable ticking time bomb.
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Magic: The Gathering have had an unfortunately named card in the printers and were unable to stop it in time. This is going to fetch big bucks.
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Bit simplistic IMO. Some countries are behind the curve regarding testing. Others moved more aggressively to stop international flights and domestic travel and are seeing the impact of that.
Africa is not a country of course, but I'm choosing to believe that countries that managed the Ebola outbreak impressively haven't lost all that learning in the space of 9 months.
Hancock’s briefing is pretty good about ramping up testing, but boy does it feel a week late. They lost control of this story completely.
The WHO are assessing whether the masks are more effective than they had previously thought, rather than less. Their advice until now has been that healthy people don't need to wear masks, but new evidence is suggesting they should revise that.
Japan's likely to be a latecomer and another potential political scandal rather than a shining light. They've seen the number of daily cases double in the last few days and there's been a notable spike after the Olympics cancellation. In the two weeks prior to the announcement, cases increased from 600 to 1,200. In the week since then cases increased to 2,200 and are growing rapidly. It's because they were doing so few tests that things seemed so rosy.
https://www.ft.com/content/194d488d-952a-41bc-8a96-0cd67e2f3b52
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/02/asia/japan-coronavirus-shinzo-abe-masks-hnk-intl/index.html
The small island of grey in the middle of red NC is where I stay
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/02/us/coronavirus-social-distancing.html
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Sky reporter.
There were nearly 600 norwegians that came back from Austria and tested positive. How many they infected I do not know. I have not seen any numbers from Italy. Without these ski resorsts we propably would have been able to trace and isolate most infected.
As for Norway there is a lot of pressure and talk about opening schools after eastern. I think that might be very dangerous, due to the fact that in Norway we have a very limited amount of respirators. If we get a big wave we will be in a large bed of turds. But this is all unknown.
For myself I am a bit anxious about schools repoening. I am a aingle dad, alone with my kid. It would be horrible if he got infected there, then infected me and I then had to leave him with some other family while I were at a hospital. I guess many people would keep their children at home anyways. Everyone says children are safe but I am not so sure we know too much about that either. I hope the schools stay closed but vulnerable children get the possibity to go to school only.
Not surprised at all.
Hope you get better soon. Praying for you brother.
Was it not a ebola outbreak in february even? Seems to remember the WHO talked about it in the early corona updates.
I'm completely illiterate when it comes to economics and have no illusions on that front but how is the UK government finding this money to wipe off the NHS debt AND pay for the massive increase in Universal credit? Genuine question. For years I've been hearing that there is no magic money tree and that austerity is necessary etc. What happens when this is hopefully all over in 6-12 months time and the debt has gone up massively?
This is a once in 10 years event, most governments budget for this with the assumption that they'll have another 10 years to prepare for the next event. Now if another novel virus were to hit next year, then we'd be in trouble.
I just googled those cards, never heard of them but just seen a lotus flower card for sale for £12k!!! £12,000 for a card!?