SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Enigma_87

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Thanks.

I get the whole testing and tracing aspect.

But I meant more, what limitations are they putting on society to achieve relatively low new case rates. Presumably there must be some? I can’t believe testing, tracing, and quarantining alone would result in their level of new cases simply due to the nature of how the virus spreads.
Testing, screening and tracing is key for knowing where you are in case of pandemic situation. You have to isolate the risk groups, already ill, already healed, etc.

It's much much better than doing it blind and closing entire economies, which leads to catastrophic situations all over the world.

There are multiple problems though, unfortunately for a model like this.

1. You need enormous resources to pull it off. Poor countries or even those in tough economic situations can't really sustain it.
2. People need to be aware and keep their own social distancing from others and be self motivated and disciplined to do so.
3. Monitoring already ill patients is key - and as mentioned GDPR could be a big obstacle in developed countries as it goes against tracking individuals and data.
4. Healthcare system needs to be at very good level to sustain peaks of many ill patients at certain periods and not get overloaded.

But in any case this model is the best to cope with this crisis, because if you don't have enough data to know where you are every rigid actions are worthless as the virus will soon be back again in couple of months.
 

Smores

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I'm curious why it wouldn't work here. People might not be comfortable with it but surely would understand the benefits of such an app for tracing the virus spread. If the information was deleted after this is over so it would be a temporary intrusion its something I'd be happy with.
Arent a lot of Europe in the process of doing this as well, it seems we need to be on the same track as this is a long term thing with possible 2nd waves and release and tighten of restrictions over time. If this limits the death toll until we get a vaccine then it's a no brainer really. Desperate times and all that.
Just been reading on the EU one, it looks like it's based on bluetooth and is voluntary but also anonymised. It'll alert those found to have been close to someone else with the app who has been confirmed for covid.

South Korea are actually using CCTV, phone location data, transport cards and contactless payment records.

Personally I've always been in favour national id cards and centralised location data but that's not popular here in the west.
 

balaks

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I was worried about catching it early and getting caught up in the mass that would flood the hospitals if I got a bad case. We are certainly reading that hospitals are busy but they do seem to be coping. Now I'm thinking that when SD is relaxed there will be a flood of people who assume that the crisis is over and go about their business, ignoring the set protocols, and cause a huge transmission of the virus over a period of time that will really strain the hospitals.

I think the next wave will be far worse than whatever we are going to go through in this first one.
You are right if they relax things too much which unfortunately makes it more likely that things are not going to be relaxed much at all for a very long time.
 

legolegs

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Not really. If it is over it is because most of the population have already caught the virus.

To me in Italy especially at least 1/3 of the population is/was infected but they didn't test them all.
Obviously far more people have been infected in Italy than the official numbers show but a third of the population?

The current mortality rate in South Korea is roughly 2% and it will exceed 2% in Germany.
If we apply that rate to Italy (which doesn't really make sense because the health care system got overwhelmed in Italy but not in Korea) we'd get 850k infected people only. Maybe double that amount because already infected will continue to die for another 2 weeks or so. But that's still only 1.7m while a third of Italy is 20m.

Now of course there are undetected cases in any country in the world so the mortality rate is most likely lower than 2% but by that much? I just find it very hard to believe that even South Korea only found 10% or so of the actually infected people. Would be great news and we should find out somewhat soon but I'm not too confident.
 

worldgonemad

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I was worried about catching it early and getting caught up in the mass that would flood the hospitals if I got a bad case. We are certainly reading that hospitals are busy but they do seem to be coping. Now I'm thinking that when SD is relaxed there will be a flood of people who assume that the crisis is over and go about their business, ignoring the set protocols, and cause a huge transmission of the virus over a period of time that will really strain the hospitals.

I think the next wave will be far worse than whatever we are going to go through in this first one.
I hope you are wrong about the size of the second wave. I must agree to a certain degree that once restrictions are lifted there will be spikes in new cases as more people get infected. Its also worrying, if true that recovered people in other countries are becoming re infected.
One positive thing though, is that further waves will not catch us out, our icu capicity and ventilator numbers will be higher. From what news ive seen we have luckily not exceeded capacity in any hospital yet.

As reported on the news today, Wuhan has lifted the lockdown. It will be interesting to see how that goes. Also on the news, Paris has now tightened its lockdown further, no outside exercise allowed. I was hoping that france was over the worst but obviously they are concerned things are not improving quickly enough
 

Skills

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You are right if they relax things too much which unfortunately makes it more likely that things are not going to be relaxed much at all for a very long time.
Which is why they've got to keep the public engaged and take them along with this whole thing. Explain & stress the impact of the restrictions, then lift them one by one and explain how adhering to them is still keeping us on track. If people not adhering/you're seeing cases rise, delay the next set of relaxations with an explaination.

One of the biggest failures of our govt has been they've failed to stress the severity of this and tried to keep the public ignorant at the start of this pandemic - to try and reduce 'panic'. Now they need to do the opposite, stress what's at stake and keep people engaged.
 

balaks

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Which is why they've got to keep the public engaged and take them along with this whole thing. Explain & stress the impact of the restrictions, then lift them one by one and explain how adhering to them is still keeping us on track. If people not adhering/you're seeing cases rise, delay the next set of relaxations with an explaination.

One of the biggest failures of our govt has been they've failed to stress the severity of this and tried to keep the public ignorant at the start of this pandemic - to try and reduce 'panic'. Now they need to do the opposite, stress what's at stake and keep people engaged.
I agree and I think the illness of Boris will actually help with that - wouldnt wish it on anybody including him but there is no doubt it has opened everybody's eyes to just how serious this can be. Sadly there are always going to be total muppets who will just do whatever they like and ruin it for the rest of us. I'd love nothing better than to be off over Easter, sit in my garden and have a beer or two with my wife but unfortunately as I'm an NHS worker my Easter bank holiday has now been cancelled and I honestly have no idea when I'll get the chance to take any annual leave at this stage - they are saying that legislation will be changed to let us carry leave over for the next 2 years. This is not going away anytime soon and people need to wise up to this and accept it.
 

Enigma_87

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Obviously far more people have been infected in Italy than the official numbers show but a third of the population?

The current mortality rate in South Korea is roughly 2% and it will exceed 2% in Germany.
If we apply that rate to Italy (which doesn't really make sense because the health care system got overwhelmed in Italy but not in Korea) we'd get 850k infected people only. Maybe double that amount because already infected will continue to die for another 2 weeks or so. But that's still only 1.7m while a third of Italy is 20m.

Now of course there are undetected cases in any country in the world so the mortality rate is most likely lower than 2% but by that much? I just find it very hard to believe that even South Korea only found 10% or so of the actually infected people. Would be great news and we should find out somewhat soon but I'm not too confident.
Well, confirmed cases are 135k. However due to the overwhelmed health care system, a lot of others didn't get hospitalized and tested and probably died at their home as well.

Due to the asymptomatic types of the virus a huge number might have now known they got it and considering the reports and connections between China and Italy, I'd assume the virus was a lot earlier there - probably December. Bergamo is a huge international hub as well and compared to Germany for example is a lot easier to become an epicenter as it links lots of people from Asia with Europe. Most of Italy's population is also in the North where the epicenter broke.

I read reports that 1/10 is the approximate number of actually ill to confirmed cases, which makes sense considering how infectious the virus is, but again with Italy is very specific situation as they began mass testing a lot later compared to other countries. You also have to bear in mind that there was a flu epidemic there as well in December and large proportion might have been diagnosed with flu, whilst having coronavirus in the same time.

Italy now posts numbers like 3k confirmed on daily basis which in a week or so (when most of the people begin to show symptoms) the number would reach circa 150-160k of confirmed cases.

Italy's mortality rate is not as low as Germany and South Korea due to the state of the system, average age of population and also late diagnostics. With intensive screening and tests from the off South Korea and Germany can catch ill patients a lot early before they are of dire need of hospitalization.
 

Dancfc

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Not really. If it is over it is because most of the population have already caught the virus.

To me in Italy especially at least 1/3 of the population is/was infected but they didn't test them all.

I don't believe for a minute that China had only 80k that got infected. The numbers are way up.

We really don't know how much of the entire population is infected and for countries like UK and USA the peak isn't reached yet, IMO.
The fact Valencia's players and staff all got tested without symptoms and 35% tested positive was quite telling.

I know they went to Italy a few weeks prior but that's still a high number and strongly suggests a ridiculous amount of people have had it without knowing.
 

Grinner

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Which is why they've got to keep the public engaged and take them along with this whole thing. Explain & stress the impact of the restrictions, then lift them one by one and explain how adhering to them is still keeping us on track. If people not adhering/you're seeing cases rise, delay the next set of relaxations with an explaination.

One of the biggest failures of our govt has been they've failed to stress the severity of this and tried to keep the public ignorant at the start of this pandemic - to try and reduce 'panic'. Now they need to do the opposite, stress what's at stake and keep people engaged.

Rubbish. The failure is with people who are too fecking thick to listen to what they are being told constantly in the media and on their social feeds.

Maybe the government failure is assuming that most people aren't as stupid as they really are.
 

sun_tzu

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Just on BBC news that the government expected around 3m people to be furloughed and it’s actually closer to 9m costing £40bn over 12 weeks.

The next decade of austerity is going to be even more crippling than the last decade.
£40 billion - thats about £588 per person... over a decade thats what lets say £60 a year or a fiver a month
I think income tax take was around 190bn last year so over a decade allowing for a bit of in inflation thats 2 trillion... a 2p in the £ rise would cover it just from income tax alone yet i expect that it will be recouped also from tax on self employed increasing, business tax increasing (can see Rishi saying we supported the self employed and business like never before and its now time for business and the self employed to repay that) ... perhaps 1p in income tax rise - some vat some business taxes and its paid for... which is probably better than 9 million people being unemployed today?
 

Skills

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Rubbish. The failure is with people who are too fecking thick to listen to what they are being told constantly in the media and on their social feeds.

Maybe the government failure is assuming that most people aren't as stupid as they really are.
There will always be thick people in society - it's the case everywhere in the world. But if you want those thick people not doing stupid things, you need to be consistent with your message.
 

buchansleftleg

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Hmm. We should be thanking China....

I wonder if the families of the huge number of dead will be quite as charitable as you.

I wonder if the huge number of people who will loose their jobs, or those who will ultimately pay the financial price for damage to the global economies would want to thank China.

We should use rigorous Risk Management techniques rather than tens of thousands of dead in order to prepare for such a pandemic.
I'm not saying we should thank China - I'm countering the argument that we should blame one particular country where this thing originated with another silly point of view. This whole blame game is something that you see some leaders engaging in to cover their own inept handling of the disease outbreak.

Good leaders deal with the situation and plan to avoid it happening again. Bad leaders seek to direct blame elsewhere. Where does the blame stop? Do we trace it all back to the one individual who maybe caught and sold a wild animal because they were desperate or dirt poor? How would that benefit us?

Take action to close down wet markets- maybe that would be more productive. Have stockpiles of PPE to protect health and care workers - more productive. Gambling on stockpiling certain drugs / treatment aids - more of a gamble.

My point is that we should be listening to scientific experts, acknowledging that they may get things wrong on occasion but that their motives are generally clearer than those of politicians.
 

Enigma_87

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The fact Valencia's players and staff all got tested without symptoms and 35% tested positive was quite telling.

I know they went to Italy a few weeks prior but that's still a high number and strongly suggests a ridiculous amount of people have had it without knowing.
I think some might have been wrongly diagnosed in Italy which furthermore extends the damages:

https://www.garda.com/crisis24/news...n-affected-by-influenza-nationwide-january-15

There were numerous reports in spikes of influenza in early January.

There were millions of tourists coming from China using Bergamo as hub in December. Due to being a new virus Italy didn't begin testing for it till February when probably many have already healed.

When all is said and done a massive campaign (testing) has to be done for antibodies so that every country knows where we are..
 
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Superb piece of journalism.

@TMDaines
Good read that.

Without over simplifying it, it sounds like Governments listen to experts (it's what they're there for... to give expert advice?) and based on their advice, some key decisions were likely (i) wrong and (ii) too slow? (Quote from article..... 'Editor of The Lancet said he would testify to parliament about a mismatch between “the urgent warning that was coming from the frontline in China” and the “somewhat pedestrian evaluation” of the threat from the scientific advice to the government').

Stupid? Naive? Too trusting?

Also, on 9th March (when virus well established around the world), article says 'the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, SAGE, had recommended that day, with no dissension recorded in its summary, that the UK reject a China-style lockdown'

Thereafter there seems to be a case of a delay in some decisions, mainly closures (though not attending the EU meetings sounds nobbish now?) until ICL report. Obviously, that's bad, but we're talking days and it sounds like that delay only meant the numbers (cases, deaths) would have been slightly lower... but the vast majority would have happened anyway due to earlier advice and earlier decisions?

Going forward, I don't think advisors will be slow to shout in future and I hope the Government (any Government) gives more challenge, says "explain it more, explain it again, give me all the options not just your conclusion". A tough lesson (hopefully) learned by the UK/most of the world.
 

golden_blunder

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Could sell every other seat for a while maybe? Many lower league teams nowhere near full their stadium anyway. Or allow people in who test positive for antibodies. Or a combination of both.
The seats in a stadium are very close. It will not observe the 2m rule. Imagine someone sat behind you coughing on you
 
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Rubbish. The failure is with people who are too fecking thick to listen to what they are being told constantly in the media and on their social feeds.

Maybe the government failure is assuming that most people aren't as stupid as they really are.
I'd Taser the feckers.

I get "civil liberties" blah but this is too important. Do what you're told or else. Greater good and all that.

Mate called me last week to say he'd reported a neighbour for inviting people round to their house for a birthday party. He was worried he'd done the right thing... I said absolutely.
 

11101

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I was worried about catching it early and getting caught up in the mass that would flood the hospitals if I got a bad case. We are certainly reading that hospitals are busy but they do seem to be coping. Now I'm thinking that when SD is relaxed there will be a flood of people who assume that the crisis is over and go about their business, ignoring the set protocols, and cause a huge transmission of the virus over a period of time that will really strain the hospitals.

I think the next wave will be far worse than whatever we are going to go through in this first one.
On the proviso the virus stays the same i don't think that will be true. When it first emerged we didn't know anything about it, how it spread or how it affected people. Countries had to go on total lockdown because they had no idea where it was or how to control it. We now have a much better understanding, particularly of how it spreads. Once restrictions are relaxed we will know exactly what behaviours need to be eliminated to stop it spreading if it flares up again, without needing to resort to the draconian measures we have seen this time around.

Just been reading on the EU one, it looks like it's based on bluetooth and is voluntary but also anonymised. It'll alert those found to have been close to someone else with the app who has been confirmed for covid.

South Korea are actually using CCTV, phone location data, transport cards and contactless payment records.

Personally I've always been in favour national id cards and centralised location data but that's not popular here in the west.
Not popular in the UK and the US. Most countries in Europe have no problem with ID cards and tracking where it's seen as necessary - I have an ID card and it's brilliant. I don't think a tracking app will be problematic for continental Europe. The UK has some weird obsession with ID cards and the US....well they do their own thing.
 

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If this virus started off within some random small country that had a small economic personality in comparison to the majority of the world & made mistakes that causes 10 to 100 of thousands of deaths per day then I'm sure the world would have the balls to question the country afterwards and make an agreement with that country to sort something out that needs to be checked by multiple countries.

The fact is - china already have the balls to say it's not their fault, and they dont have to say sorry - continuously through multiple outlets. They expect this all to end and everything to go back to normal with all countries looking after their own soil.

We can talk about how countries are shite at looking after a pandemic but literally what about the country that creates pandemics for the world more often than not?

Eff that, they do have to say sorry and things do have to change in that country by the force of other countries for the greater good of both humanity and animals.
I agree with all of this. reports have come out that wet markets have been closed in various regions but then I see conflicting reports that they are still happening on the down low.
The problem is that everyone wants some of the Chinese market financially and don't want to rock the boat and have a bit of fear. Only Trump and the US dare to challenge them publicly (funny enough).

To be fair I don't remember much criticism or blame for African countries when Ebola broke out so maybe we as an international community, don't see any benefit in playing the blame came when it comes to outbreaks
 

golden_blunder

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So a majority of pubs, clubs, restaurants, cinemas, malls, theatres etc etc would close, with the hordes of people who would naturally assume this soft touch approach by the government implies the virus really is “just a bad flu” (remember that bullshit?) all crammed into the minority that remain open. What could possibly go wrong? “Identical outcomes” my hole.

Your hypothetical scenario is pointless. We’re discussing a real scenario. With a real virus. No need for any straw men. For what it’s worth, I imagine what we’re seeing in parts of France or Spain right now is about as bad as it will get.
Because they locked down of course. Without it, I’d imagine the figures are at very least doubled
 

RobinLFC

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Belgium: 4th day in a row there are barely any new ICU cases, and first time yesterday that there were more hospital dismissals than new hospitalizations (source). So the hospital occupation decreases for the first time, let's hope this is the start of a new trend. Looks like we're finally past the peak we've been waiting for.
 

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11101

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To be fair I don't remember much criticism or blame for African countries when Ebola broke out so maybe we as an international community, don't see any benefit in playing the blame came when it comes to outbreaks
That's because it never made it to our shores in any meaningful way. If it had you can guarantee there would be questions asked and more, Ebola is a totally different ball game to Covid-19.
 

Buster15

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I'm not saying we should thank China - I'm countering the argument that we should blame one particular country where this thing originated with another silly point of view. This whole blame game is something that you see some leaders engaging in to cover their own inept handling of the disease outbreak.

Good leaders deal with the situation and plan to avoid it happening again. Bad leaders seek to direct blame elsewhere. Where does the blame stop? Do we trace it all back to the one individual who maybe caught and sold a wild animal because they were desperate or dirt poor? How would that benefit us?

Take action to close down wet markets- maybe that would be more productive. Have stockpiles of PPE to protect health and care workers - more productive. Gambling on stockpiling certain drugs / treatment aids - more of a gamble.

My point is that we should be listening to scientific experts, acknowledging that they may get things wrong on occasion but that their motives are generally clearer than those of politicians.
And in the main I do agree with you.

That is the beauty of such forums.
You get the benefit of other people's views.

Yours is perfectly logical.
 

Skills

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The Government has just relaxed the social distancing laws for construction workers on sites in England. Currently Scottish workers have to maintain 2m on "essential sites".

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2020/04/08/latest-government-advice-on-safe-site-working/

English workers are being advised to wash their hands a bit more and wipe certain surfaces down.

Isn't this a bit early?
Business needs I guess. I can see quite a few companies lobbying for this now.
 

blue blue

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And in the main I do agree with you.

That is the beauty of such forums.
You get the benefit of other people's views.

Yours is perfectly logical.
But would the rest of the worlds governments be wrong to seek compensation from China because they covered up the outbreak. This isn't the first time they have had an outbreak as they managed to contain the SARS outbreak without infecting the whole planet. Its fair to say this type of pandemic could in theory start anywhere in the world and blaming one country because of a natural phenomena is wrong. But the main reason this has infected the whole world is because the authoritarian system of government in China encourages people to hide things for fear of reprisals.

Is it not correct to say this is pandemic has its roots in the authoritarian principles of Chinese government and the rest of the world has a right to feel aggrieved.
 

rotherham_red

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This doesn’t need to be paid for by austerity. I’ve heard a few economists saying this can’t be treated like any other kind of normal economic crisis. The hole in the bank balance can be filled by other means. 100 year bonds and the like. One of them (Mark Blyth, who is always worth a listen) said lessons have been learned from 2008 and most governments realise that the best way to get the economy going again isn’t by QE or pouring money into institutions but by putting money in people’s pockets.

I’m reasonably optimistic that austerity won’t be a tactic used in the aftermath of all this.
I wish I could share your optimism.
 

Conor

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Superb piece of journalism.

@TMDaines
A spokesman for the government’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, didn’t directly respond to Reuters questions about the threat level. Asked whether, with hindsight, the scientists’ approach was the right one, the spokesperson said in a statement that “SAGE and advisers provide advice, while Ministers and the Government make decisions.”

But I thought the politicians were just following the science?
 

Pexbo

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The Government has just relaxed the social distancing laws for construction workers on sites in England. Currently Scottish workers have to maintain 2m on "essential sites".

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2020/04/08/latest-government-advice-on-safe-site-working/

English workers are being advised to wash their hands a bit more and wipe certain surfaces down.

Isn't this a bit early?
A friend of mine is currently doing a constructions project management masters and he said one of his lecturers who is still very much involved in the industry has contacts in the unions was explaining to his group just how fecked the construction industry would be if it came to a halt. I might be wrong but I think he said it was hundreds of billions tied up in construction projects in the UK and the margins are incredibly fine. They all work on the basis where you don't waste a kilo of concrete or a length of timber because it all factors into the profits and if a project ran over schedule by just a few weeks the knock on effect of that is huge so if you had the entire industry suddenly delayed by a few months, many of the biggest construction companies and industrial equipment hire companies would become insolvent very very quickly.

The knock on effect of that on the country's infrastructure and economy would be immeasurable.
 

11101

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A friend of mine is currently doing a constructions project management masters and he said one of his lecturers who is still very much involved in the industry has contacts in the unions was explaining to his group just how fecked the construction industry would be if it came to a halt. I might be wrong but I think he said it was hundreds of billions tied up in construction projects in the UK and the margins are incredibly fine. They all work on the basis where you don't waste a kilo of concrete or a length of timber because it all factors into the profits and if a project ran over schedule by just a few weeks the knock on effect of that is huge so if you had the entire industry suddenly delayed by a few months, many of the biggest construction companies and industrial equipment hire companies would become insolvent very very quickly.

The knock on effect of that on the country's infrastructure and economy would be immeasurable.
My family is involved in construction and development and the rules the government have introduced over the last 10 to 20 years, mostly the red tape and additional steps brought in by Blair's government, have eroded margins to the point where the industry can't take a shock. Lots took a loss after 2008 and survived because they'd built up a decent cash pile beforehand, but they've been on such tight margins ever since they don't have anything to fall back on now. The handful of massive developers will be ok but everybody below that would be in serious trouble.
 

blue blue

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A friend of mine is currently doing a constructions project management masters and he said one of his lecturers who is still very much involved in the industry has contacts in the unions was explaining to his group just how fecked the construction industry would be if it came to a halt. I might be wrong but I think he said it was hundreds of billions tied up in construction projects in the UK and the margins are incredibly fine. They all work on the basis where you don't waste a kilo of concrete or a length of timber because it all factors into the profits and if a project ran over schedule by just a few weeks the knock on effect of that is huge so if you had the entire industry suddenly delayed by a few months, many of the biggest construction companies and industrial equipment hire companies would become insolvent very very quickly.

The knock on effect of that on the country's infrastructure and economy would be immeasurable.
I hear what you are saying but the industry is already Fecked. I work for a large contractor employing approx' 250 men. Approx 40 of those men left the country when lockdown came. I have spoken to other contractors and they are in the same boat. The eastern European workforce has left the country and nobody knows if they are coming back. A few stayed but Brexit and now this has reduced the workforce significantly.

Prudent management of this crisis and making use of the governments job protection schemes will help large companies but delays are unavoidable. The supply chain for materials has locked up significantly and long delays are inevitable.

The reason I posted the link to the governments relaxation of social distancing in construction is because it just demonstrates how poorly the government recognises the industry. Builders are expected to risk infection more than any other business that isn't essential. This typifies the governments lack of protection of the industry. Grenfell came about mainly because the fire safety guidelines where inadequate and they just couldn't be bothered to bring the legislation up to date despite warnings.

Construction gets the rough end of the stick and it causes deaths. This has to change.
 

Simbo

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Because you know, EU

iF this is true, it’s quite remarkable that they put their anti-Europe agenda before anything else
This governments very existance revolves around being anti-EU, the only reason those cabinet ministers are in the job is because they are strongly anti-EU and able to spin a good tale around it, no other qualification was required. Any thought they have on how to manage this crisis appropriately will trail behind their primal instinct of being a Brexit sycophant.

So remarkable yes, but not in the least surprising.
 

Grinner

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On the proviso the virus stays the same i don't think that will be true. When it first emerged we didn't know anything about it, how it spread or how it affected people. Countries had to go on total lockdown because they had no idea where it was or how to control it. We now have a much better understanding, particularly of how it spreads. Once restrictions are relaxed we will know exactly what behaviours need to be eliminated to stop it spreading if it flares up again, without needing to resort to the draconian measures we have seen this time around.
I don't doubt that the advice will be good. I doubt that the average thicko will take notice of it and just go out BBQing with friends and family when it's sunny.
 

Denis79

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Sweden is still very much under control despite this pal.

What is ”going ugly” @Denis79? We’ve seen a decrease in cases for quite a few days (5 days if yesterday continued the trend, we'll see at 14:00 so fingers crossed) and the death toll, which is a picture of the pandemic from 2-3 weeks ago has been a steady 40 ish per day since last week. Hopefully the highest total so far (55) on the 2nd April was some kind of peak.
ICU entries per day since 23rd March have been: 38, 34, 31,40, 27, 28, 40, 31, 32, 42, 43, 43, 27, 40, 33, yesterday unknown till 14:00.

Add to that it’s only Stockholm that is being hit with any real degree of it and you’ll see that what we are doing is working over the country so far. As the Goteborg Health Minister said yesterday, they are so fortunate that their half term was in week 7, whereas Stockholm was week 9, the Italy horror week. Gothenburg, our second biggest city has seen just 26 deaths, and just 66 people into ICU since all this began.

Sweden registered their first 2 deaths on 14th March, Portugal 18th March so there's a 4 day difference there. Portugal was already in some kind of voluntary lockdown then. 4 days ago our total deaths was almost identical to Portugal now.
What I think will change now is that Portugal will drop right off due to their lockdown, whereas Sweden will likely continue at a stable level so the deaths will really start to pull away from Portugal, maybe for months, which is the plan, putting in measures that the population of Sweden can maintain for month after month after month.
The key for Portugal after the big drop off they will likely see is what they do after lockdown.

You'd imagine the vast majority of school kids and parents in the Stockholm area have likely had a dose of Covid-19 already.

The next week and Easter is crucial though, you can really sense that the Swedish authorities are shitting it about us fecking up this good trend at Easter.

Where we have "fecked up" is that we have it in 121 nursing homes in the Stockholm area.

Worldometres don't edit the records to show updated figures in the correct days, which could give you an incorrect picture. Here is the Swedish health ministry stats: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
Not the picture that my Swedish friends painted yesterday one of them is a nurse in a hospital in Stockholm. The nurse said the hospital is under immense pressure, low on supplies, unsafe for it's staff. That Sweden has no control over the spread of infection because they have done minimal testing compared to all it's neighbpuring countries. Despite this the government allows fully packed outdoor seating, restaurants and so on.

Look I hope I was lied to by my friends buddy because this virus is brutal.
 

Alabaster Codify7

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Not the picture that my Swedish friends painted yesterday one of them is a nurse in a hospital in Stockholm. The nurse said the hospital is under immense pressure, low on supplies, unsafe for it's staff. That Sweden has no control over the spread of infection because they have done minimal testing compared to all it's neighbpuring countries. Despite this the government allows fully packed outdoor seating, restaurants and so on.

Look I hope I was lied to by my friends buddy because this virus is brutal.

It's going to be very interesting to see how the next few weeks unfold in Sweden. It could be very morbid viewing, but if not, it could really raise eyebrows. I'm hoping of course, it's the latter but the former is more likely.
 

Stacks

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That's because it never made it to our shores in any meaningful way. If it had you can guarantee there would be questions asked and more, Ebola is a totally different ball game to Covid-19.
Well it's far more deadly!

But yeah it was contained quite well in comparison. But did anyone get blamed for swine flu which killed 150k or did China get blamed for Avian flu in the 50s? I wasn't alive then so I dont know