I read a week or so ago that the same was reported in Italy, they had unusually high flu deaths around December 2019. The last I heard China have yet to find patient zero. Without that they still don't know for certain when it started.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
Yeah, it looks extrmely unlikely to me. We saw how fast it spread in March if it was since November in Europe then why it waited so long to spread?
Can you not see how completely illogical that is? Why is it only killing people at an exponential rate now?
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The real numbers from Portugal for example is more than 1000 deaths and not 300 and they say Italy would add at least another 4000 deaths, those numbers came from a organization who calculate the deaths From the last 5 years.
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If you think about a normal distribution, it just means it took 3/4 months to get onto the exponential part of the curve.
Not sure if this is related, as a clever form of social distancing, but funny nonetheless
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It still doesn’t make any sense. The time between an area getting the first case and that area’s health service being overwhelmed is around 3 weeks.
The idea this could have been happening on more linear scale without the health service still raising questions about isolated cases of people dying after needing ICU and ventilation is slim to none.
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small insight into life post lockdown .... Gonna be very tricky to get that right.
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The test wasn't developed until January, and we have only seen testing ramped up from early March. If people had Covid 19 since November Doctors would have treated it as the flu, and there is evidence that it was a bad flu year before we Covid 19 was formally identified.
People need ventilation and die of the flu all the time, it's not uncommon. As I say it's an unlikely scenario but it's definitely possible, until we have a way of telling how many people have had it we just don't know.
Yeah, kind of agree. If some strain mutated in something that is way more contagious than before, then we probably could assume that the new strain spread much more rapidly (essentially from a linear or quadratic spread to an exponential one) but there is nothing to suggest that this is the case.
What I think is more likely is that we just had a really bad year. A very bad flu season followed by the new virus. I guess it is the easiest explanation for more than average deaths/infections during the winter.
The developments here over the last few days (rapid outbreak in workers dormitories) had me thinking, places such as India and Bangladesh where social distancing isn't a real option and where people live in tight communes are going to experience an explosion of cases soon. The pandemic is far from its peak globally
To think half the population have had it is just stupid though. Theres no benefit to entertaining such ideas.
If you look at the hospitilisation data alone, this virus is far, far too aggressive for cases to have slipped through and been chalked up as just the flu. In Italy the flu season is spread out over months but at its peak less than 100 people needed ICU care, even in this apparently bad year. Within 3 weeks of the virus outbreak almost 2,000 people were in ICU. Theres no way it goes unnoticed through half the population.
I just think it’s far more likely that people had colds/flu/food poisoning/whatever and they’re now retrofitting their experience to this.
Personally I’ve been lucky to avoid it all this year but in the previous god know how many I’ve been hit very bad with colds and flus including one with a persistent cough that actually produced blood at one point. Any one of those years I could argue it was CV symptoms. Hoarse cough, void of energy, headaches, you name it.
That said, my throat has improved throughout the day and I had my temp checked in thr morning (36.3). Stressing didn't help. Im WFH tomorrow and off till Tuesday. Could well be allergies.
I wasn't agreeing with the initial post, but I wasn't disagreeing, was just pointing out how poorly the reply came across. Anyone can talk shit and make it sound good.
Do we actually know what percentage of people show no symptoms? Or low symptoms? That's a key thing we need to find out, but it'll be nearly impossible won't it?
Are you numbers there to do with our massive flu season just before Christmas where there was an unexpected amount of flu cases compare to normal? To me that is something out of the ordinary. (@Fiskey) is currently providing the thread with info on that.
Whatever the case, it's all mental and doesn't really look like slowing down tbh, lockdown will end somewhere and they'll get a 2nd hit of it. (Think I read somewhere already has, Singapore maybe? Unless I dreamt it).
They’ve had tests for flu for ages though. Apparently there were a lot of cases of swine flu hospitalising people in Uk/Ireland in December/January. Which more than likely is the reason for so many people (who weren’t tested) thinking they might have had COVID-19.
I’ve talked to GP friends and they don’t remember a single case of someone losing their sense of smell when they saw the flu surge earlier in the year. That means they almost certainly didn’t see anyone with COVID-19.
Honestly, from what I've seen, the information coming out of the Chinese medical community and being published to the world at the beginning of January seems to of been first class. To a point where I doubt any western country would do any better.
Its flu season, there's god knows how many cases of pneumonia doing the rounds, a perfectly normal thing. Yet they managed to identify something odd about 20 or so cases in 3 separate hospitals in Wuhan, identified they could all be linked to the same food market and this is what has raised the alarm. I dunno what is involved in sequencing the genome of a virus, but they manged to identify it was a completely new virus, sequence it, and publish everything they knew about it to Lancet in a report on 11th January. Honestly, my impression of China has quite improved since this started.
There was a Governor in Wuhan who tried playing it down at the beginning (sound familiar?) and this is what the western world seem to be concentrating on when they say China covered it up.
There is very little we know now that wasn't already known at the end of January, yet there was still world leaders in March, including our own, trying to play it down and hold back any restrictions. Can't blame China for that.
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Something a bit strange/interesting about Worldometer. For some reason they divided France, France stats include Martinique, Guadeloupe, La Reunion, Mayotte and Guyane but they are all also listed separately.
Did you or anyone around you completely lose your sense of taste and smell?
I see no evidence that this wasn't exactly what it seemed. Bat virus infects a host organism where it mutated (or most likely recombined with another virus) that was then transmissible to humans. One or more of the intermediate host organisms ended up in contact with humans and passed it on. This was either at the wet market or someone at the wet market got it from an animal and then worked at or visited the wet market where human infection exploded.
And on that point we are all going on about wet markets and eating exotic animals but deforestation and destruction of remote habitat for farming is as big if not a bigger factor.
that's a stupid and irresponsible thing to write, there's no proof or talk about those numbers, evidences show we have flattened the curve and could already passed the peak
I’m guessing there will be an explosion of cases in slums all around the world. The only hope in such countries is that poorer slum dwellers etc have much stronger immune systems. But that’s only a hopeful hypothesis.
Regardless those community’s will end up suffering the most. Most have already lost all income as they are daily cash in hand workers within informal economy so close to starving. And will also probably end up with the most heinous numbers of dead.
It has always been recorded as a possible symptom but one that occurs far less frequent that many others I believe.
Anytime I get sick the first thing that happens to me is diarrhea. I assume it's my body isolating and expelling the bad stuff.
It's the main factor. And we have pretty good examples with vampire bats who saw their habitat destroyed and diminished which has led them to feed on what replaced it, cattle and cowboys in Central and South America. And for some reason people are surprised that we have more contacts with animals that ideally don't want to have anything to do with us.
'Trump was just asked whether he’d pardon Joe Exotic, the protagonist from the hit Netflix TV documentary Tiger King.
“What did he do?” Trump asked. “Are you recommending a pardon?”
The president said he’d look into it.'
(Guardian)
“What did he do?” Trump asked. “Are you recommending a pardon?”
The president said he’d look into it.'
(Guardian)
I'll make sure to tweet him whenever a united player is suspended
Should lock up Carole fecking Baskin first.
Its a daft thing to tweet on 14th Jan cos things had changed by then, but it is simply a factual statement. Preliminary investigations showed no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission (because of the 2 week incubation period). China stated on 31st Dec they had identified 27 patients with a new coronavirus that were all linked to this food market, they didn't have evidence at that point to show how it had been transmitted.Tweet
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The same China who were telling people there was no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV)?
Double his sentence might be better for making me watch that crappy program (until I quite ten minutes in the episode 2)
There’s no way we’re getting this under control in a month is there I mean nearly 1000 deaths today.
On 17th of January they locked down a province with more than 40 million people. 3 days after they found 'no evidence' of human to human transmission.
With the number of infections going from 27 (31of January) to hundreds when there was no evidence from human to human transmission. Give me a break, how on Earth people are falling for this?
Here is what I know:
- I've had flu several times in my life, all which felt similar
- between 15-27 December, what started with a dry cough and fever, also included periods of deep sleep, loss of smell/taste, felt like I had glass shreds in throat when I coughed which was often, sometimes felt I couldn’t get enough air into my lungs, deep and prolonged abdominal pain, traumatic mental depression, total loss of energy and constant fatigue.
- I took various OTC medicines like day/Night nurse, benilyn flu cough syrup, paracetamol. None seemed to provide any relief.
- It was the most horrifying ‘at home’ illness and certainly unlike any ‘flu’ I’ve ever had.
If I’d have these symptoms today, I’d almost certainly get admitted into hospital as a suspected covid19 patient. Instead I just assumed it was ‘flu’ and so toughed it out at home.
Anecdotally, I now know many others had same symptoms at same time. How many who knows.
If it was covid19, and some people died of it, I’m assuming those would have been recorded as simply death by flu. And as the media reports show, people died of flu in record numbers during December/January. And majority of others would have just roughed it out at home like I did, unlike many now who are going into hospital or being tested as positive cases.
I think the Government should ask a sample of those who suffered in December to volunteer for the antibody test to get the bottom of this. But they won’t, because if it proves that we did have it in December, all hell would break lose in terms of Government incompetence.
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How in the hell is Wuhan the epicentre going back to normal after 3000 deaths and the UK are recording nearly a 1000 a day something is not adding up here at all..