Top 4 Race 19/20 | duffer: "We [Chelsea] are getting 3rd. Despite what the lunatics in here think, Man United are not all that."

duffer said:

I fancy Chelsea in that one.

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Hahahaha touche

TMDaines said:

Chelsea could be 5 points ahead before commencing on that run though. Chelsea don’t have to play Leicester either.

I think United need 21 points from the final 24. Probably need to win the lot to bring Leicester into the mix too.

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Leicester is on the final day for us. Same as Wolves is for them. Which means both teams will know what they need to do at that point.

Also, that potential 5 point lead will most likely be 2 points, with the City game directly after their game on Sunday.

EDIT - Do you honestly back Chelsea to keep a 2 point lead over us for 7 games knowing that they still have Liverpool, Sheffield utd and wolves to play, while we have one less difficult game and both City and Liverpool out of the way?

jamesjimmybyrondean said:

What makes you so sure

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Uefa rarely change their decisions. City's ban will stand. Probably not in full but one year for sure.

Andycoleno9 said:

Uefa rarely change their decisions. City's ban will stand. Probably not in full but one year for sure.

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That would be brilliant. They should do it at the end of the season so that we won't relax

Slysi17 said:

Your wrong about Chelsea not having to play leceister again. Chelsea play leceister city away from home on the 28th June. Could see them dropping points in that.

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That's an FA Cup game.

rotherham_red said:

Leicester is on the final day for us. Same as Wolves is for them. Which means both teams will know what they need to do at that point.

Also, that potential 5 point lead will most likely be 2 points, with the City game directly after their game on Sunday.

EDIT - Do you honestly back Chelsea to keep a 2 point lead over us for 7 games knowing that they still have Liverpool, Sheffield utd and wolves to play, while we have one less difficult game and both City and Liverpool out of the way?

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The game isn't played on paper. City have been a massive let down in all their big away games bar The Emirates (even lost to Jose's Spurs) so what makes you think them winning at Stamford Bridge is a sure thing? Sheffield United will probably be shattered by the time they play us, Wilder doesn't really trust his squad depth and that will come back to haunt them with this schedule.

Furthermore looking at your fixtures the only teams you have that don't seem to be in a fight for something are Southampton and Palace, the rest have survival or Europe to play for, including Brighton away a venue you're still waiting for your first PL point at.

Now ofcourse I'm not saying we are there yet ofcourse we're not, but it's not as simple as looking at the fixture list.

Chelsea will get it sadly. We will drop too many easy points.

I dont know why youre citing the liverpool game as a guaranteed L
Weve played them 3 times and given as good as we have got.
2 2 (lost on pens)
1 2 loss
2 0 win recently in the cup.
Besides by the time we play them the league will be done from their point of view

Dancfc said:

The game isn't played on paper. City have been a massive let down in all their big away games bar The Emirates (even lost to Jose's Spurs) so what makes you think them winning at Stamford Bridge is a sure thing? Sheffield United will probably be shattered by the time they play us, Wilder doesn't really trust his squad depth and that will come back to haunt them with this schedule.

Furthermore looking at your fixtures the only teams you have that don't seem to be in a fight for something are Southampton and Palace, the rest have survival or Europe to play for, including Brighton away a venue you're still waiting for your first PL point at.

Now ofcourse I'm not saying we are there yet ofcourse we're not, but it's not as simple as looking at the fixture list.

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Likewise, Chelsea have been a massive let down in almost every game against a traditional big 6 team not named Spurs, both home and away. With your only other win coming against Arsenal, and the home leg being a draw. Every other game has been a loss. Home and away games are irrelevant now, without fans. It will pretty much be about the quality of the players at your disposal and both City and Liverpool have objectively better players than Chelsea.

Your fixture list is almost exactly the same in terms of teams with something to play for or not. With the exception being that the teams who might not have something to play for being the teams who are much, much better than you, except Norwich who will likely be doomed by the time they play you. Yes, those teams will be scrapping for their lives, but the single hardest game we had in the run-in was the game we had yesterday. None of the teams remaining are as much of a threat in a single game as a Spurs managed by a Jose who had a point to prove and time to prepare.

You're also making assumptions regarding Sheffield United there. This is a massively different situation now, and needs will be must. But even if true, you'll have Wolves and the big two to play also. You literally can't afford to drop more than one game throughout this run of nine and four of those will be tricky to say the least. Compared to the two remaining tricky games we have, you can see why I'm optimistic.

rotherham_red said:

Likewise, Chelsea have been a massive let down in almost every game against a traditional big 6 team not named Spurs, both home and away. With your only other win coming against Arsenal, and the home leg being a draw. Every other game has been a loss. Home and away games are irrelevant now, without fans. It will pretty much be about the quality of the players at your disposal and both City and Liverpool have objectively better players than Chelsea.

Your fixture list is almost exactly the same in terms of teams with something to play for or not. With the exception being that the teams who might not have something to play for being the teams who are much, much better than you, except Norwich who will likely be doomed by the time they play you. Yes, those teams will be scrapping for their lives, but the single hardest game we had in the run-in was the game we had yesterday. None of the teams remaining are as much of a threat in a single game as a Spurs managed by a Jose who had a point to prove and time to prepare.

You're also making assumptions regarding Sheffield United there. This is a massively different situation now, and needs will be must. But even if true, you'll have Wolves and the big two to play also. You literally can't afford to drop more than one game throughout this run of nine and four of those will be tricky to say the least. Compared to the two remaining tricky games we have, you can see why I'm optimistic.

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But you say City and Liverpool will beat us because they have objectively better players as crowd advantage is wiped out (not exactly sure how playing Liverpool in an empty Anfield will be harder than going there with a full crowd) but then say we're going to find it tough against Sheffield and Wolves, both of whom we have objectively better players than and the latter of whom we've already hammered Infront of their own supporters. Can't work both ways.

If BCD makes it a free for all for the superior side, then you have to win all your remaining games as we'll only be dropping 6 points.

Dancfc said:

But you say City and Liverpool will beat us because they have objectively better players as crowd advantage is wiped out (not exactly sure how playing Liverpool in an empty Anfield will be harder than going there with a full crowd) but then say we're going to find it tough against Sheffield and Wolves, both of whom we have objectively better players than and the latter of whom we've already hammered Infront of their own supporters. Can't work both ways.

If BCD makes it a free for all for the superior side, then you have to win all your remaining games as we'll only be dropping 6 points.

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I back us to win the rest of our games. Especially with Pogba back and Bruno seemingly continuing where he left off. They're going to be a real problem for the rest of the league. Make no two ways about it.

Edit - there is also a difference in the gap between the top two and the rest. It's pretty sizeable and the way Wolves and Sheffield United play is a difficult style for teams like Chelsea and Utd. Hence why they are tricky games as opposed to the extremely difficult games like Liverpool and Chelsea.

rotherham_red said:

Leicester is on the final day for us. Same as Wolves is for them. Which means both teams will know what they need to do at that point.

Also, that potential 5 point lead will most likely be 2 points, with the City game directly after their game on Sunday.

EDIT - Do you honestly back Chelsea to keep a 2 point lead over us for 7 games knowing that they still have Liverpool, Sheffield utd and wolves to play, while we have one less difficult game and both City and Liverpool out of the way?

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To start with you are taking a number of logical leaps to have us and Chelsea only separated by 2 points with 7 games to go. Pretending that there is a high degree of certainty that Chelsea will not take anymore points than us when they play Villa and City, and we play Sheffield United, isn’t rational. It might happen, but we could be even further behind.

We’ve been crap against sides who are happy to let us have the ball. Absolutely shite against sides outside the top half, and that is who the majority of our games are against. A great article on The Athletic about this.

Let’s say Chelsea go W5 D2 L2 on the run in. It doesn’t matter where they get the points. as they are capable of losing to Palace after beating City. That could be fives wins against the chaff, draws with Wolves and Sheff Utd, defeats to Liverpool and City. That’s not anything exceptional and still puts then on 65 points.

United would need six wins and a draw just to match that. Goal difference would probably be in our favour based on results, but could go either way. We’d therefore need to go W6 D2 or W7 to be certain of pipping them. Even W5 D3 wouldn’t be enough.

Let’s say United go W6 D2 and get 66 points. Because of Leicester’s GD they’d only need to go W4 D1 L4 or W3 D4 L2 to match that and GD would likely be enough for them.

United haven’t shown the consistency to be expected to reach fourth. It’s a leap of faith to presume we will overhaul Chelsea and possibly Leicester with 8-9 games to go. We’ve W3 D3 in the league since signing Bruno. Over 38 games we might on average be 5-7 points better than Chelsea, but it is pretty close. We’re running out of games to catch them.

TMDaines said:

To start with you are taking a number of logical leaps to have us and Chelsea only separated by 2 points with 7 games to go. Pretending that there is a high degree of certainty that Chelsea will not take anymore points than us when they play Villa and City, and we play Sheffield United, isn’t rational. It might happen, but we could be even further behind.

We’ve been crap against sides who are happy to let us have the ball. Absolutely shite against sides outside the top half, and that is who the majority of our games are against.

Let’s say Chelsea go W5 D2 L2 on the run in. It doesn’t matter where they get the points. as they are capable of losing to Palace after beating City. That could be fives wins against the chaff, draws with Wolves and Sheff Utd, defeats to Liverpool and City. That’s not anything exceptional and still puts then on 65 points.

United would need six wins and a draw just to match that. Goal difference would probably be in our favour based on results, but could go either way. We’d therefore need to go W6 D2 or W7 to be certain of pipping them. Even W5 D3 wouldn’t be enough.

Let’s say United go W6 D2 and get 66 points. Because of Leicester’s GD they’d only need to go W4 D1 L4 or W3 D4 L2 to match that and GD would likely be enough for them.

United haven’t shown the consistency to be expected to reach fourth. It’s a leap of faith to presume we will overhaul Chelsea and possibly Leicester with 8-9 games to go. We’ve W3 D3 in the league since signing Bruno. Over 38 games we might on average be 5-7 points better than Chelsea, but it is pretty close. We’re running out of games to catch them.

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Do you really think it's a leap to say that City will beat Chelsea in 6 days time? Seeing as Sheffield United were struggling to create anything of note against Villa on Wednesday, and comparing it to our display against Spurs, I'm quietly confident on that game.

You are also ignoring the context behind our inconsistencies and issues in breaking compact defences. Namely the injuries to our best players for mid- to long-term periods throughout the season which has meant that we've had to make do with second and third choices in key positions throughout a large portion. Chelsea, as far as I'm aware, have not been anywhere near as afflicted and have not got the same mitigating circumstances.

Pogba and Bruno, as well as the natural return to fitness and form of Martial and Rashford will be the key difference for the rest of the season. Seeing what we created in 30 minutes against a Jose low block is nothing if not encouraging on every aspect.

Also, if we're inconsistent, what do you make of Chelsea, considering they're currently only two points ahead of us and haven't even played Liverpool and City yet?

You can list out those WDL scenarios all you like, but if you ignore the sides that each team is playing it's redundant. This isn't an equilibrium. Their games are objectively harder than ours, and I can point to the league table by way of proof. Moreover, if you took the average league position of all the teams we have in our run-in and compare it to theirs, ours is comfortably lower.

TMDaines said:

United haven’t shown the consistency to be expected to reach fourth. It’s a leap of faith to presume we will overhaul Chelsea and possibly Leicester with 8-9 games to go. We’ve W3 D3 in the league since signing Bruno.

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The 6 games have been Chelsea away, City home, Spurs away, Everton away, Watford home and Wolves at home. Context is important.
The last 8 are:

• Sheffield Utd (H)
• Brighton (a)
• Bournemouth (h)
• Villa (a)
• Southampton (h)
• Palace (a)
• West Ham (h)
• Leicester (a)

But now we have Rashford, martial, ighalo, bruno and pogba all fit for the first time this season. I'd be shocked if our bottom half record doesn't improve, given before we had no bruno, no pogba, and martial and Rashford starting every game with no depth but lingard/pereira supplying them. Its a massive difference.

Leicester are too far ahead imo, we might get close but especially with the last minute winner just now, they'll have enough points for top 4 and there aren't enough games to catch them up.

Chelsea though have been more inconsistent than anyone and carried by their start to the season. They haven't won back to back league games since November.

Leicester can be caught up. Whether Chelsea, United or Spurs put on a run remains to be seen.

bosnian_red said:

The 6 games have been Chelsea away, City home, Spurs away, Everton away, Watford home and Wolves at home. Context is important.
The last 8 are:

• Sheffield Utd (H)
• Brighton (a)
• Bournemouth (h)
• Villa (a)
• Southampton (h)
• Palace (a)
• West Ham (h)
• Leicester (a)

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Worth pointing out United went W2 D3 L3 in the reverse fixtures.

United are fine in games where the opposition wants the ball and to be proactive in attacking. We seriously struggle in games where the opposition’s primary aim is to go get XI behind the ball and not lose their structure, even it that means ceding possession.

Long way to go yet with a few twists and turns but I hope Chelsea, Wolves, Leicester and Utd are tightly bunched together ahead of match day 38. Would make for a nail biting final day with 2 massive games.

Looking at remaining fixtures, I think we win 6 of the remaining 8, and 1 or 2 draws. 17-22 points would be my guess, 22 being very optimistic but entirely possible as we should be favorites in every game. Puts us on 63-68 points.

Chelsea I think gets 14-18 points from 9, puts them on 62-66 points.

Leicester I think gets another 13-16 points, puts them on 67-70 points.

Only way we catch up Leicester is getting 22 or 24 points from the last 8, and even then it might come down to goal difference which they are well clear for. It's between us and Chelsea for 4th, though if the CAS decision comes back in early July saying City are still banned, then I think we're all clear. Don't think the teams below us will sneak above us in the remaining run (though there's the chance Sheffield pulls ahead this weekend).

TMDaines said:

Worth pointing out United went W2 D3 L3 in the reverse fixtures.

United are fine in games where the opposition wants the ball and to be proactive in attacking. We seriously struggle in games where the opposition’s primary aim is to go get XI behind the ball and not lose their structure, even it that means ceding possession.

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Yes. Without Pogba, without Bruno, without attacking depth in Ighalo. Probably some without Martial or Rashford (not sure if they were out for any of the reverse). Yes, of course we will be mediocre at breaking down teams when the creative player is Pereira or Lingard. Its not all down to tactics. You need players to make the tactics work, and now we have creative players so these games will be a lot more straight forward compared to before.

Wait, what? Sheffield United? Where have I been?

Pow said:

I dont know why youre citing the liverpool game as a guaranteed L
Weve played them 3 times and given as good as we have got.
2 2 (lost on pens)
1 2 loss
2 0 win recently in the cup.
Besides by the time we play them the league will be done from their point of view

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I see you winning that game so I don't see it as guaranteed dropped points at all, could be a big goal from Dawson today for both our top 4 hopes because Leicester looked like they had bagged the win

I'm not confident of us even finishing 5th. I think we'll need to win the Europa League in the end.

Yagami said:

I'm not confident of us even finishing 5th. I think we'll need to win the Europa League in the end.

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Why? We've been in good form and we have our key players fit again.

Yagami said:

I'm not confident of us even finishing 5th. I think we'll need to win the Europa League in the end.

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5th? Are we absolutely sure that's enough to qualify?

Our remaining fixtures:

Wednesday 24 June 2020
Man Utd 18:00 Sheffield Utd

Tuesday 30 June 2020
Brighton 20:15 Man Utd

Saturday 4 July 2020
Man Utd 15:00 Bournemouth

Thursday 9 July 2020
Aston Villa 20:15 Man Utd

Monday 13 July 2020
Man Utd 15:00 Bournemouth

Wednesday 15 July 2020
Crystal Palace 20:00 Man Utd

Saturday 18 July 2020
Man Utd 15:00 West Ham

Sunday 26 July 2020
Leicester 15:00 Man Utd

That's one of the easiest run-ins in recent memory. I can see us going unbeaten for the remainder of the season and comfortably qualifying for the CL in the process.

Random Task said:

Our remaining fixtures:

Wednesday 24 June 2020
Man Utd 18:00 Sheffield Utd

Tuesday 30 June 2020
Brighton 20:15 Man Utd

Saturday 4 July 2020
Man Utd 15:00 Bournemouth

Thursday 9 July 2020
Aston Villa 20:15 Man Utd

Monday 13 July 2020
Man Utd 15:00 Bournemouth

Wednesday 15 July 2020
Crystal Palace 20:00 Man Utd

Saturday 18 July 2020
Man Utd 15:00 West Ham

Sunday 26 July 2020
Leicester 15:00 Man Utd

That's one of the easiest run-ins in recent memory. I can see us going unbeaten for the remainder of the season and comfortably qualifying for the CL in the process.

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On paper at least, United should win every one of those games.

I don't think Wolves can be discounted !

WeePat said:

On paper at least, United should win every one of those games.

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Why Leicester when they are higher in the table? Or what paper do you use?
Just names and players?

I know we've been without Bruno and Pogba for most of the season but our run in is full of the games we tend to struggle in. I see 3 wins and some losses

That's not to say I see Chelsea or Leicester finishing particularly strongly either, like last season it'll be whoever is the least crap that finishes top 4 and hope 5th place is good enough as well

Paul_Scholes18 said:

Why Leicester when they are higher in the table? Or what paper do you use?
Just names and players?

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I didn't notice Leicester at the bottom there, but either way, even if you put that down as a loss, and perhaps the Sheffield game as a draw, and win the rest, United should have an excellent chance at securing top 4.

But yes, there's a reason I said on paper, because we know each game comes with it's own context and United still have to turn up and navigate those potential banana skins.

WeePat said:

I didn't notice Leicester at the bottom there, but either way, even if you put that down as a loss, and perhaps the Sheffield game as a draw, and win the rest, United should have an excellent chance at securing top 4.

But yes, there's a reason I said on paper, because we know each game comes with it's own context and United still have to turn up and navigate those potential banana skins.

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Yeah I think it will be a close race. Sheffield and Wolves can join in too. Hard to know how form will change now post Covid.

Paul_Scholes18 said:

Why Leicester when they are higher in the table? Or what paper do you use?
Just names and players?

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Leicester have been on a shit run of form for a while now and it seems to have carried over.
I think we would be favourites. With our style of play I would say we are favourites over most top sides

rotherham_red said:

Do you really think it's a leap to say that City will beat Chelsea in 6 days time? Seeing as Sheffield United were struggling to create anything of note against Villa on Wednesday, and comparing it to our display against Spurs, I'm quietly confident on that game.

You are also ignoring the context behind our inconsistencies and issues in breaking compact defences. Namely the injuries to our best players for mid- to long-term periods throughout the season which has meant that we've had to make do with second and third choices in key positions throughout a large portion. Chelsea, as far as I'm aware, have not been anywhere near as afflicted and have not got the same mitigating circumstances.

Pogba and Bruno, as well as the natural return to fitness and form of Martial and Rashford will be the key difference for the rest of the season. Seeing what we created in 30 minutes against a Jose low block is nothing if not encouraging on every aspect.

Also, if we're inconsistent, what do you make of Chelsea, considering they're currently only two points ahead of us and haven't even played Liverpool and City yet?

You can list out those WDL scenarios all you like, but if you ignore the sides that each team is playing it's redundant. This isn't an equilibrium. Their games are objectively harder than ours, and I can point to the league table by way of proof. Moreover, if you took the average league position of all the teams we have in our run-in and compare it to theirs, ours is comfortably lower.

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Haven't been that inflicted? Rudiger out for half the season, Kante out most of the opening three months, James unfit at the start, Hudson Odoi picking up an injury when he was starting to really accelerate into form, Pulisic out since new year, no Loftus Cheek atall upto now and now we potentially lose Willian in the run in, oh and that's before i mention we lost our gamechanger without an opportunity to replace him before a ball was even kicked.

Apart from that it's been a breeze.

cyberman said:

Leicester have been on a shit run of form for a while now and it seems to have carried over.
I think we would be favourites. With our style of play I would say we are favourites over most top sides

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We didn't start that great ourselfes, but we will see. Need to get Rashford and Martial going fast here so we can get enough goals in the side.
Vardy still in poor form though so interesting to see if he can find it again.

If Chelsea win tomorrow to go 5 clear it's looking like a shootout with Wolves for 5th who also have a very favourable run in.

Dancfc said:

Haven't been that inflicted? Rudiger out for half the season, Kante out most of the opening three months, James unfit at the start, Hudson Odoi picking up an injury when he was starting to really accelerate into form, Pulisic out since new year, now we potentially lose Willian in the run in, oh and that's before i mention we lost our gamechanger without an opportunity to replace him before a ball was even kicked.

Apart from that it's been a breeze.

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Plus RLC, who will make his first appearance of the season tomorrow.

Leftback99 said:

If Chelsea win tomorrow to go 5 clear it's looking like a shootout with Wolves for 5th who also have a very favourable run in.

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Can someone explain why 5th is now the target when City's ban is still uncertain?

duffer said:

Plus RLC, who will make his first appearance of the season tomorrow.

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How the feck did i forget him, ammended.

Leftback99 said:

If Chelsea win tomorrow to go 5 clear it's looking like a shootout with Wolves for 5th who also have a very favourable run in.

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They have City midweek.

cyberman said:

They have City midweek.

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So 8 points clear?