To put it into context De Gea is 4 saves away from having an identical save % to Henderson. Those 4 saves difference has cost 1 more point.
Dean Henderson has to be our #1 next season? Poll added
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
This is not true.
Not even an opinion at this point if De Gea is making too many mistakes then so is Henderson as De Gea has only cost 1 point more for us than Henderson has for Sheffield United.
Henderson has been good compared to others on one metric. XG against.
Don't worry, you're not going mad, you're quite right.
You could look at percentage shots saved, which for the season so far is de Gea 72.8%, Henderson 77.4%, although that doesn't allow for the quality of shots faced, which is where expected goals prevented comes in, with de Gea at - 0.8, and Henderson at a very creditable + 9.5.
Sheff United won’t have the budget to buy Henderson, if you wanted to sell him it’d likely be to Chelsea.
As for De Gea, who on earth do you think will want to splurge £60m+ on him whilst also taking on his wages?
£100m for the pair is pure fantasy.
Good stats, thank you for those. I do think you're understating what a difference of 4% is between keepers. 80% is god level, 60% is clown level, so a 4% diff isn't trivial. It also doesn't account for the difference in the Goal Prevented stat, which is still suggesting Henderson is making saves De Gea isn't. Thoughts on that welcome.
Do you have stats for the previous season too?
I understand very well. The difference so far this season has been 1 point.
Or 4 saves. Whichever you prefer.
I agree this season Henderson has prevented above expectation. I do not believe for one second he will continue to put up the same figures as no goalkeeper in PL history has ever.
What I am saying is that all of Henderson’s heroics actually boil down to a 1 point difference in points dropped as a result of the GK.
So everyone on here hounding De Gea for his costly mistakes should also be hounding Henderson for his. The only difference is that Henderson isn’t observed week in week out and his mistakes aren’t advertised.
I am not saying he hasn’t had a better season but I am saying the criticism De Gea is facing currently is completely unfair when compared to the praise of Henderson
I have read that and I have also watched every single goal both De Gea and Henderson have conceded this season.
The fact is Henderson has cost 5 points De Gea 6.
I will endeavour to find them now for you however I won’t be able to find clips of Henderson at a comparable level to De Gea for last season as this is his only PL season so will not be looking to do an in depth analysis through all of their video clips of conceded goals for 18/19.
But you saying what I said isn't true is false, unless of course you're saying you actually disagree with the premier league.
A player costing their team points is a stat without context, a keeper can make an error and their team could still go on to win the match.
Well put, that's what I was getting at. Worst outcome is that Ddg doesnt regain form and we have to loan him out making him the new Sanchez(no one is buying him on those wages I'm afraid). I'd love to know what the next highest earning keeper earns, probably 50% of what Ddg earns.You actually posed a possible solution there.
Nice!
Also consistent with the current and upcoming seasons.
Season 20/21
1. Dean back with us.
2. First month of next season, Dean play most of the games with Romero back-ups.
3. De Gea given one month holiday (justification? = De Gea need a "break" to get back his normal form, maybe Ole can mention the break given to Schmeichel by SAF)
4. If Dean convinces, stay and keep his place.
5. If Dean is shaky and terrible ala Foster, we may need De Gea back if we're really serious in winning trophies and doing better next season.
6. Scenario #4 would meant De Gea can start fishing for new clubs and go away the earliest Jan 21'.
7. Scenario #5 meant we may need to loan back Dean (if still can) to get more exps.
Either scenario, we lose nothing.
The break may even jog De Gea to get back his "normal" form with almost zero mistakes every game.
Done!
Easy.
David De Gea 18/19 Season:
- 169 shots on target against
- 124 saves
- 71.6% success (7th best)
- Number of additional saves required to be No1 for % saves - 6
It is absolutely true!
Watch the clips in the link provided and make up your own mind. The goals were mistakes from the GK imagine you’re judging De Gea for both.
It is not without context I have literally provided the entire context of the match who it was against what happened that resulted in the goal and also what the result would have been without the mistake.
Read the full link. Become informed and then tell me it’s not all true. These are facts.
All of the data is in context and you can look yourself.
I’m not sure the points dropped thing is very meaningful, it’s too dependant on the rest of the game. If your strikers bail you out with two goals after you make a mistake, that doesn’t make you a better keeper. Better to stick to the more robustly comparable stats.
Putting aside the issue of whether Henderson will continue in his current form, the real question is whether De Gea can get back to his best. Is there any reason beyond simple optimism for thinking he’ll turn his form around? How long should he be given?
I think is better to see how he develops first by staying in another club.
To me Romero is good deputy if needed.
When was the Last time there was a great English goalkeeper ? maybe 30 yrs ago ?
shilton ? clemence ? No guarantee.
To me Romero is good deputy if needed.
When was the Last time there was a great English goalkeeper ? maybe 30 yrs ago ?
shilton ? clemence ? No guarantee.
It absolutely is meaningful because it shows the team isn’t being severely affected by De Geas mistakes alone. The fact that doesn’t line up with the narrative that sells papers is the problem you’re facing in accepting it.
I honestly wonder what the point is of providing actual unbiased analysis and facts on this forum if this isnt something you’re willing to accept.
If points dropped isn’t meaningful then you can’t have a go at De Gea for supposedly costing us games?
What I’m trying to get across here is the criticism of De Gea is inflated unfairly compared to Henderson who should be receiving similar criticism for losing points.
De Gea is made out to be losing us 20 points.
De Gea will never get back to his 14+ expected goal best because that is the best Goalkeeping season in PL history and no GK has ever managed that before and I doubt will again. It is a ridiculous standard to hold him to.
Im talking about how Henderson would be at United. Using a method that factors in Sheffield Uniteds strikers limitations is obviously pointless.
Woah, put the strawman down, no one expects him to reach superhuman standards every week to justify his place. Maybe just suggest how long you think we should give him to get back to a more typical level of his.
It’s not pointless it’s good analysis of what the actual cost of the GK is to their sides. You just don’t like the outcome as it doesn’t play into the narrative you prefer.
It’s not a straw man you said his best, that was his best? Tell me what you think is a typical level of his then you give some thought and criteria. I can’t answer that without knowing what you feel his level should be.
Henderson at United has absolutely no guarantee of being any better than De Gea. In fact we would have similar issues.
I like Henderson I want him to succeed at the club but he’s not going to walk in and push one of our few historically WC players out.
This is totally wrong. The difference in points cost is 1 point. The difference in points saved, it is hard to know. What we know is that De Gea has an xGA of close to 0, while Deano has it over 8. So, if we had saved those 8 goals for us, than the difference would have been bigger than 1 point. Depending on where those saves were allocated, the difference could have even been in double digits.
I think Henderson needs another year in the league.
Its funny how the media think Greenwood isnt ready for the pressure of being a starter for us but Henderson is? GK is the one position where no errors is left un judged.
Its funny how the media think Greenwood isnt ready for the pressure of being a starter for us but Henderson is? GK is the one position where no errors is left un judged.
‘Kin ‘ell, like blood from a stone. Just forget it mate it was only a casual question, if you don’t want to answer, no worries.So nobody can argue De Gea is costing us much worse than Henderson would. That was entirely my point.
Ive not once argued against points saved.
No just tell me what you think his level should be. Then I’ll happily answer.
I can’t answer that question without you telling me where you think he should be and after you incorrectly called an argument straw man based on your comment of back to best you should define it.
im literally letting you set the standard here.
You won’t answer because you like being able to be vague in your poitns
It depends on how you look at it. The point difference is (number_of_points_saved_from_Deano - number_of_points_saved_from_DeGea) + (number_of_points_lost_from_DeGea - number_of_points_lost_from_DeGea). We know only the results of the third and fourth variables, in which case Deano is +1. We can estimate the results for the first 2 variables based on xGA. So, it is not outlandish to suggest that we would have been 5+ points better with Deano.
So yeah, saying that De Gea cost us 5+ more points than Hendo would have done, is totally true.
Just had a quick skim through it, there's a lot of work put in but its one guys opinion on the goals along with a YouTube link.
You can't just parrot a subjective view from reddit whilst telling people to inform themselves and saying they're "facts" they're not facts.
What I’m trying to say is there is no way to know exactly how many point have been saved but I agree with you Henderson would have saved more.
I take no issue in people who want to claim Henderson will have saved Sheffield more times than De Gea has United this season.
But that isn’t the same as costing points.
I’m just trying to combat one aspect of a very lazy narrative that De Gea has cost us lots of points because of lots of mistakes.
It’s literally word for word explaining each goal and I invite you to watch them and point out any you disagree with.
Id be more than happy to debate individual errors by both goal keepers if you wish to contest any of the analysis.
Don’t be lazy and just dismiss evidence I’ve put effort into understanding my argument so put effort into yours if you’re suggesting mine isn’t good enough. Mine is based on actual analysis of every goal conceded.
I have watched every single goal of both conceded and if anything it’s being harsh on De Gea how they summarised it.
Greenwood isnt a good example. Henderson has been playing regular first team football for 3 years now and Greenwood less than 6 months.
Do agree that the keeper position is different though however what needs to be weighed up is do we feel Henderson can be good enough for us or not. If we think he can then I feel he should get a shot at ousting DDG next season. Otherwise we should aim to bring in a new keeper
DDG has been in decline for 2 years and thats not comparing him to his wonder season. He is regularly making basic errors and even worse they are coming at the business end of the season (both last season) and now
First team football and Premiership football are very different things. Id like him to get more time in the league.
He has a better save % this season.
What would you class as his level then if we aren’t comparing him to his peak +14 XGA season what would you say De Geas level should be at to avoid criticism and not be accused of decline?
Where has he declined from?
My last post of the day, He's good enough to play for us, Bu I would like him to go out on loan for the last time next season, Then see where we are after that.
Obviously yes however Greenwood isnt a good example was my point. The pressure on someone like Greenwood who hasnt played regular mens football for more than 6 months is different to Henderson who has alot of experience.
Granted he could do with more in the PL but again he is far ahead of Greenwood in that experience too
In my post I obvioisly stated the costly mistakes at the business end of the last 2 seasons.
A top keeper is one who can keep their concentration and eliminate mistakes especially in big games. One of the reasons I never classed Lloris as a top top keeper was because (although he made a lot of saves) he was always going to make a very costly mistake.
DDG form has declined thats obvious to see and again even when you take out the wonder season
So who would you class as a top keeper who fits that criteria?
Would you want us to spend this summer acquiring that player?
What do you believe De Gea has declined from? Was he a top class keeper before in your eyes?
People uncritically apply xG and save percentages as a metric to separate two goalkeepers, one playing for a team without pressure and one playing for one of the biggest in the world. Here I would use common sense and the old saying of teams making the keeper look good, it’s easier to play for Sheffield and get lots of shots at you every game compared to playing for United and having to save the few shots that come in. If he makes a mistake, nobody cares, if DDG makes one it’s on SkySports with commentary from 12 ex-players within the hour.
DDG will be first choice next season, 100% certain. In two years? Not so sure. What is also 100% certain is that Henderson is not ready to take the reigns next season and replace de Gea, it would be a huge risk and no evidence is in to support it. You can play a young left back and get away with it, but you don’t tinker with the goalkeeper just like that.
DDG will be first choice next season, 100% certain. In two years? Not so sure. What is also 100% certain is that Henderson is not ready to take the reigns next season and replace de Gea, it would be a huge risk and no evidence is in to support it. You can play a young left back and get away with it, but you don’t tinker with the goalkeeper just like that.
The problem with your posts is that you focus only on the "save" part of being a GK. But it's so much more.
Sometimes claiming a cross before it gets to a striker will nullify the attack. Or better organizing your defense which will result in a blocked shot. Things like these won't appear on the shot statistics or xG for example.
This is why a keeper who will have comparable save stats to Dave's will look a lot more competent.
For example: a better keeper would punch the ball away in the 2-2 vs Soton. Not Dave's fault. But a better keeper gets us 2 more points which would have us in the driving seat right now.
Sadly De Gea doesn't offer much in the respect above. The only reason to keep him around was if he had some insane reflexes. And being top of the league by saving % isn't going to cut it. If your all round game sucks, you have to outperform everyone in the saves department.
These days Dave can't even make it to No.1 and a lot of fans are still making excuses.
Before the last 2 years he wasnt regularly dropping clangers at the business end of the season. Of course he was top class before that.
His decline has come around the world cup.
Anyway I don’t know what the club should do. He has a long term contract if there is interest in him I would sell and replace with a different profile of keeper. One that is great with distribution and command of area and has a sweeper profile (we need one as Maguire is slow)
Thats the optimal for me but I appreciate it may not be possible. Mainly because DDG may he difficult to shift
They have both faced and saved near identical amounts of shots? De Gea isn’t getting less to deal with than Henderson so I don’t buy your first point there.
I do agree there is far more psychological pressure on De Gea every game compared to Henderson. It takes a very strong character to be a GK at United.
I personally don’t think Henderson is ready or the GK that style wise is what people want.
I absolutely agree it’s so much more. I was only trying to combat one narrative that’s all so please don’t think me blinkered I just had one thing I wanted to get across as I was getting fed up of the false narrative with regards to mistakes.
I absolutely agree De Gea hasn’t been good enough this season at commanding his area it’s one of the reasons we are so reliant on Maguire to cover this weakness.
I agree a better all round GK would be lovely but the issue is does one exist that we can buy and be confident in replacing De Gea?
Who would you say we replace him with?
First of all thanks for responding.
Ok so I’d agree with you he was a top class GK but I don’t agree he’s regularly dropping clangers though unless you can evidence that? I’d like to see where you get that from if you don’t mind?
I agree the World Cup has affected his confidence in the immediate aftermath.
I appreciate it’s difficult to name someone better than him to replace him which is also kind of the point. Henderson doesn’t fit that profile. Onana is an option but not necessarily a commanding one.
Neuer
Onana
Ter Stegen
Oblak
Which of these would be a solid improvement?
I genuinely don’t see it as a huge issue right now because we don’t have the ability to pluck a better alternative out of thin air. We’d pay over the odds for a really stand out candidate and I don’t think it’s worth the investment given we have the second best defensive record in the league and he’s cost us 6 points.
I see it as much lower down on the list of priorities. We may as well back him one more season while we scout for replacements or give Henderson a chance to stake his claim.
I don't follow football as much as I used to, so I can't name anyone besides the usual suspects like Oblak, Onana, etc
I don't trust Onana personally. He reminds me too much of Barthez. He might be to eccentric and inconsistent, but that might be my bias here.
Donaruma might be a good shout, but he's still too young and error prone.
One thing is for certain. We have to start phasing out De Gea starting next season. We should also bring back Deano. He might not be Jesus Christ reincarnated, but it's always good to have a plan B in case De Gea's form completely falls off the cliff.
Also I don't trust Romero. He is the world's best No.2. And it should stay that way.