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If one random team in the bottom 10 are allowed to play the entire 20/21 season with 12 men in every game. Do they win the league?
- Thread starter Silverman
- Start date
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
Nope.
No. But then they could go fully unbeaten perhaps.
Yes. The 12th man? Albert Einstein
It depends on how they're coached. Executed well they could overpower a good, but the defending team would just be able to park the bus, maybe even counter
I doubt even that
Nahhhhh.
Einstein was indeed a genius but a lot of people dont realise that his brother Frank was a monster.
I really wanted to like that post, but @Damien would kill me
Well Southampton finished 11th but their form is strong, they’d be a force with an extra man in every game.
No.
They might only lose a couple of games though. I reckon bottom half managers would use the extra man as a 5th defender (5-3-3) as that's there mentality.
They might only lose a couple of games though. I reckon bottom half managers would use the extra man as a 5th defender (5-3-3) as that's there mentality.
They could play this formation and try to counter when appropriate
GK
SW------SW
WB----DC----DC----DC----WB
DM
MC---MC
AM
SW------SW
WB----DC----DC----DC----WB
DM
MC---MC
AM
Nice
I'm surprised the popular opinion here is no.
Maybe the very worst teams wouldn't, but I'd fancy Southampton or Everton to have a pretty good chance.
Maybe the very worst teams wouldn't, but I'd fancy Southampton or Everton to have a pretty good chance.
Thanks anyway mate....its the thought that counts!
Sure, get an extra goalkeeper who can play sweeper-keeper while the other one is a shot stopper. Southampton with their high press won't concede and Ings will score enough to keep them winning.
No but they'd probably finish higher than Arsenal.
They’d get done on a counter in some games.
Depends on the player. Width and spreading the play can negate most positive factors of the extra man unless he's plonked in the middle of the defence. Even then, it's just a matter of a team who has stretched them getting the play right and scoring, from there it becomes a glorified training session with space to exploit and chances to try and take.
Playing with a man less isn't a foreign concept and the [much] better sides would get into their groove and the task at hand soon enough.
Playing with a man less isn't a foreign concept and the [much] better sides would get into their groove and the task at hand soon enough.
In an open game pressing in a 443 or something could be absolutely unplayable, but I think over time teams would go more and more negative and when there is no space quality might become more important than quantity.
Well it certainly didn't work at Leicester just recently...
I found this study online
https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2015.00842.x
We probably need to lower the 0.36 because 12 vs 11 is going to be slightly harder than 11 vs 10 (so let's say 0.30).
But then the average time of a red card in the study is probably somewhere in the second half, so you'd need to double it at least to account for the full 90 minutes. Then maybe add a bit more due to the extra fatigue caused, so I'm going to 2.5x it.
That gives you an extra 0.75 points per game.
But then the study displays the average of all teams in the league, and we're only looking at bottom half teams. So I'm going to randomly shave 20% off.
Which gives us 0.6 points per game, or 22.8 points per season. Not enough.
https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2015.00842.x
Napkin math with loads of random assumptions:
We probably need to lower the 0.36 because 12 vs 11 is going to be slightly harder than 11 vs 10 (so let's say 0.30).
But then the average time of a red card in the study is probably somewhere in the second half, so you'd need to double it at least to account for the full 90 minutes. Then maybe add a bit more due to the extra fatigue caused, so I'm going to 2.5x it.
That gives you an extra 0.75 points per game.
But then the study displays the average of all teams in the league, and we're only looking at bottom half teams. So I'm going to randomly shave 20% off.
Which gives us 0.6 points per game, or 22.8 points per season. Not enough.
Exactly what I was thinking. Two GK’s could do it.
They'd probably be in a good chance i'd reckon.
4-5-2 would be something to break.
Put a solid GK on goal and you would have a hard time breaking them.
4-5-2 would be something to break.
Put a solid GK on goal and you would have a hard time breaking them.
With current offside laws, that's destined to fail spectacularly.
Would play everyone onside.
Nah. Take it the other way, and I think a Pep side with 10 men every game would probably still finish top 6.
Would be very interesting - well, in a crappy Dyche/park the bus scuffler physical outfit style.
You could just give your 12th man the role of specifically marking the oppositions key playmaker totally out of the game, without leaving massive holes.
You'd still need to have some attacking skills though, so it'd need to be one of the top 6 with the extra man to win the league.
You could just give your 12th man the role of specifically marking the oppositions key playmaker totally out of the game, without leaving massive holes.
You'd still need to have some attacking skills though, so it'd need to be one of the top 6 with the extra man to win the league.
You could see some crazy formations with lots of new things weve never seen.
4-4-3 - Imagine being able to tell both fullbacks to not even think about going pact half field as the overlapping runs are now made by a wide midfielder.
4-2-3-2 - Imagine two Vardys defending from the front in a functional pressing side.
4-3-3-1 - A 3 man central midfield but with no reason to get forward as you still have the front four of a 4231 the same just with more coverage in the middle.
I think most coaches would stick the extra player in a defensive center mid that just sits no matter what and may rotate who that is cause they can also take an extra card every match to kill off counter attacks.
Im not sure how well these teams would do as in win the league, but it would be really really interesting.
4-4-3 - Imagine being able to tell both fullbacks to not even think about going pact half field as the overlapping runs are now made by a wide midfielder.
4-2-3-2 - Imagine two Vardys defending from the front in a functional pressing side.
4-3-3-1 - A 3 man central midfield but with no reason to get forward as you still have the front four of a 4231 the same just with more coverage in the middle.
I think most coaches would stick the extra player in a defensive center mid that just sits no matter what and may rotate who that is cause they can also take an extra card every match to kill off counter attacks.
Im not sure how well these teams would do as in win the league, but it would be really really interesting.
This thread got me thinking of Fergie’s quote about Zidane and 10 planks of wood 
That forever being the post that got him promoted. Do it!
Promote this man
Fair point, didn't it through,
In that case I support overlapping wide midfielders.
He's got the full 10 points now
Well done, I declare ye worthy of the caf
4232 would be an awesome formation in fairness, something for everyone! Not that it would help Villa's forwards much!
He's got the full 10 points now
Thank you all you beautiful caftards. This is indeed a great day for me. I am honoured and humbled.Well done, I declare ye worthy of the caf
Now where did I leave that lengthy acceptance speech....
You only have to look at how well some teams fare when reduced to 10 men to answer this. Give Pep a 12th player and yes. Give any bottom half team one and I don’t think it will be as big a deal as some here are suggesting - would put them up a few positions, probably top 6, but that’s about it I reckon.
Sorry pal....meant to include you too in my last post.
P.s. OP sorry for slightly derailing your thread.
No worries. Congratz on the promotion!