SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

ManUArfa

Full Member
Joined
Jun 24, 2012
Messages
1,465
Location
....and Solskjaer has won it!
I think that’s harsh, Portugal did a “great job” of locking down, absolutely every bit as good as say Denmark. But Portugal had a different starting point.
Belgium also in that respect, and they have absolutely suffered the worst.
Denmark, Norway, Finland weren’t super harsh in their temp covid laws, but so far have have done great.
I think it’s more nuanced than some tend to think.
Sweden basically eradicated the Italy/Austria strain, and it was the UK and US strains that remained, that gives us some implication that UK was getting BIG early numbers even if they’d done a Belgium and shut up shop as soon as them.
France are also quite high on the effected list and they were full on man, they policed the shit out of it.
The virus is having its way regardless of what measures many countries seem to put in place - look at many of the so-called early good performers now.

You have a very good point about the starting point in each country being important; and this has to be considered alongside the speed at which different countries have been able to implement testing. Some countries with more labs and flexible, market driven healthcare systems seem to have done better on testing. The other big factors in rates of spread and death rates are things like:
-population density, hub airports, and over-crowded housing such as in many of Europe's major cities and more widely in the very densely populated UK
-cultural factors such as how tactile a nation is and/or where their elderly reside such as in Italy or Spain
-widespread use of illegal labour in poor working conditions where such practices are considered too difficult/sensitive a topic to discuss e.g. in the UK.

We have to learn to live with this for the foreseeable but we cannot destroy our economies in the process. If we do the aftermath of the pandemic will have much more severe consequences.
 
Joined
Jul 31, 2015
Messages
22,790
Location
Somewhere out there
You have a very good point about the starting point in each country being important; and this has to be considered alongside the speed at which different countries have been able to implement testing. Some countries with more labs and flexible, market driven healthcare systems seem to have done better on testing. The other big factors in rates of spread and death rates are things like:
-population density, hub airports, and over-crowded housing such as in many of Europe's major cities and more widely in the very densely populated UK
-cultural factors such as how tactile a nation is and/or where their elderly reside such as in Italy or Spain
-widespread use of illegal labour in poor working conditions where such practices are considered too difficult/sensitive a topic to discuss e.g. in the UK.
Yup, it’s certainly much more nuanced than many would have you believe.
Around half a year in to this pandemic and the difference even within countries is incredibly telling.
Sweden again is a prime example, with 99 deaths per 100,000 in Stockholm (2387 total), yet just 18 deaths per 100,000 in Skåne/Malmö (264 total).
Each city’s starting point in Feb-March is likely a huge factor, probably the biggest when looking at the stats so far, something I’ve argued in here since early April; but also, just where the clusters arrive. If they arrive, like in Stockholm, in the lower income areas, where people live tighter, often in multi-generations, then it’s like wildfire, because aside from the obvious in that it spreads more easily in those areas, these people cannot work from home, cannot distance like the middle class and rich, and work in lower income jobs such as care workers in homes, and there comes the next wave of wildfire.

One thing however is certain, Covid-19 has proven without doubt that income inequality is the biggest issue in the World in 2020.
 
Last edited:

Spiersey

Full Member
Joined
Feb 15, 2012
Messages
7,385
Location
United Kingdom.
Supports
Chelsea
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53627801

My local pub has an outbreak. Lot of my mates been contacted saying to get tested and are now having to isolate. 13 tested positive that were actually at the pub but I know of another 5 that have tested positive since having contact with 1 of the 13. Numbers are probably a fair bit higher than that I’d imagine too. Amazing how quickly it spreads although apparently the bar weren’t fussed about proper social distancing prior to this. I’ve not been in since it reopened post lockdown though.
 
Joined
Jul 31, 2015
Messages
22,790
Location
Somewhere out there
It is becoming increasingly evident that pubs are going to be a nightmare for the spread of this pandemic.
:lol:

That was obvious from day one, UK pubs.

I remember reading Bill Bryson’s The Body when he spoke about that invisible dye they used to simulate virus at an indoor party.
Every single surface, glass and guest had it absolutely everywhere by the end of the night.
Small, closed spaces like pubs, homes and offices are gonna always be the prime driver in viral spread, that was obvious even to us layman.

Some bizarre decisions made everywhere, even over here we’ve banned public from
outdoor events and also for example, no running races. But hey, ferries to Gotland and Öland are ok despite us knowing since pretty much day one and Diamond Princess what a terrible idea that was. It’s no shock that Norway just got themselves in a stupid situation with a ferry.
 
Last edited:

Wumminator

The Qatar Pounder
Joined
May 8, 2008
Messages
22,944
Location
Obertans #1 fan.
:lol:

That was obvious from day one, UK pubs.

I remember reading Bill Bryson’s The Body when he spoke about that invisible dye they used to simulate virus at an indoor party.
Every single surface, glass and guest had it absolutely everywhere by the end of the night.
Small, closed spaces like pubs, homes and offices are gonna always be the prime driver in viral spread, that was obvious even to us layman.
Yep. But I think there was a hope that we could socially distance and potentially be fine.

Obviously we can’t. We’ve seen that now in multiple pubs.
 

Dancfc

Full Member
Joined
Oct 28, 2016
Messages
7,406
Supports
Chelsea
It would be interesting to know where these cases are. If there are significant outbreaks in certain places and why that has happened.
There's been extended targeted testing in hotspots and also Imperial College are doing random selected testing to get an idea on the asymptomatic level of infection.

Putting those things into consideration I actually expected higher number of confirmed cases.
 

Jericholyte2

Full Member
Joined
Oct 6, 2004
Messages
3,557
It is completely preposterous that the government in their “wisdom” thought they could reopen everything whilst holding a pandemic at bay!

I could very easily see other restrictions coming ack to allow the schools to open, such as pubs closing again.
 

Dancfc

Full Member
Joined
Oct 28, 2016
Messages
7,406
Supports
Chelsea
We have to learn to live with this for the foreseeable but we cannot destroy our economies in the process. If we do the aftermath of the pandemic will have much more severe consequences.
Yep, and most of all for the next generation so they can get the chances in life we got and don't have to spend their prime living to merely exist.

I really fear for the long term consequences of our kids/youth of today at this point, both in terms of what opportunities they will get and their mental health.
 

DomesticTadpole

Doom-monger obsessed with Herrera & the M.E.N.
Joined
Jun 4, 2011
Messages
100,974
Location
Barrow In Furness
There's been extended targeted testing in hotspots and also Imperial College are doing random selected testing to get an idea on the asymptomatic level of infection.

Putting those things into consideration I actually expected higher number of confirmed cases.
Thanks for that.:)
 

DomesticTadpole

Doom-monger obsessed with Herrera & the M.E.N.
Joined
Jun 4, 2011
Messages
100,974
Location
Barrow In Furness
It is completely preposterous that the government in their “wisdom” thought they could reopen everything whilst holding a pandemic at bay!

I could very easily see other restrictions coming ack to allow the schools to open, such as pubs closing again.
Think it should be " " " " wisdom" " " ".
 

Jericholyte2

Full Member
Joined
Oct 6, 2004
Messages
3,557
Think it should be " " " " wisdom" " " ".
Only one set of “”s cause knowing them and their propaganda it’ll be announced in Aug 20-odd saying they’re closing schools again due to pressure from the uNions and have everyone blaming the Left again.

As we’re heading more and more along the lines of locking down again I can’t see how they can expect teachers to be in full classes without PPE.
 

DomesticTadpole

Doom-monger obsessed with Herrera & the M.E.N.
Joined
Jun 4, 2011
Messages
100,974
Location
Barrow In Furness
Only one set of “”s cause knowing them and their propaganda it’ll be announced in Aug 20-odd saying they’re closing schools again due to pressure from the uNions and have everyone blaming the Left again.

As we’re heading more and more along the lines of locking down again I can’t see how they can expect teachers to be in full classes without PPE.
That bit worries me. They just seem happy to play fast and loose with peoples lives. They really don't care. Wipe out tens of thousands of pensioners and disabled. Rubbing their hands at the money saved in the long run.
 

antsmithmk

Hates women.
Joined
Feb 11, 2014
Messages
1,608
743 new cases in the UK today. That is high for a Sunday......
The difference in cases is that in April, the number of cases closely matched the number of people being admitted to hospital, and thus had a severe case of Covid. What we now have is widespread testing, and it would be useful to know how many of the 743 require hospitalisation.
 

antsmithmk

Hates women.
Joined
Feb 11, 2014
Messages
1,608
It is completely preposterous that the government in their “wisdom” thought they could reopen everything whilst holding a pandemic at bay!

I could very easily see other restrictions coming ack to allow the schools to open, such as pubs closing again.
Boris seeded that idea pretty much on Friday. As with all other big changes, a leak beforehand to seed the idea and then the announcement itself will come later.
 

Dancfc

Full Member
Joined
Oct 28, 2016
Messages
7,406
Supports
Chelsea
Boris seeded that idea pretty much on Friday. As with all other big changes, a leak beforehand to seed the idea and then the announcement itself will come later.
If they have to find a trade off to get schools and colleges open again I'll happily get on board with it. I've enjoyed being able to go to the gym again but I'll give that up no questions asked if every school can open up again.

Denying children not only education but social development could have disastrous long term consequences.
 

redshaw

Full Member
Joined
Jul 17, 2015
Messages
9,670
UK 8 deaths and 744 cases

Total for this week is actually a tiny bit lower than last week. 452 last week and 449 this week but either way it's flat.
 

F-Red

Full Member
Joined
Nov 15, 2008
Messages
10,895
Location
Cheshire
The difference in cases is that in April, the number of cases closely matched the number of people being admitted to hospital, and thus had a severe case of Covid. What we now have is widespread testing, and it would be useful to know how many of the 743 require hospitalisation.
186 admitted yesterday, 1230 in hospital currently with 86 requiring ventilation support. The cases you're seeing in today's figures isn't a result of yesterday's testing. It's built up of cases from the past 7 days, so its difficult to correlate the two.
 

F-Red

Full Member
Joined
Nov 15, 2008
Messages
10,895
Location
Cheshire
Just for context though, the declaration of the major incident is so that all areas of emergency services have access to quicker resources. The headline makes it sound a little bit more dramatic.
 

F-Red

Full Member
Joined
Nov 15, 2008
Messages
10,895
Location
Cheshire
Did we always track "new cases"? Or was it hospital admissions?
New cases have always been tracked, divided by the different pillars. Pillar one is hospital data, pillar two is community testing data. Pillar two is where the increases are being seen, but with a decline in hospital admissions.
 

Carl

has permanently erect nipples
Joined
Mar 6, 2008
Messages
45,359
New cases have always been tracked, divided by the different pillars. Pillar one is hospital data, pillar two is community testing data. Pillar two is where the increases are being seen, but with a decline in hospital admissions.
Has testing gone up too though? Or has that remained largely the same for a while now?
 

Adamsk7

Full Member
Joined
Aug 17, 2014
Messages
2,706
Did we always track "new cases"? Or was it hospital admissions?
Hospital admissions initially but since testing has ramped up, of course we are getting a higher percentage of those that would never have been discovered previously.
 

F-Red

Full Member
Joined
Nov 15, 2008
Messages
10,895
Location
Cheshire
Has testing gone up too though? Or has that remained largely the same for a while now?
It's broadly increased to 140k as the 7 day average, but that spikes depending on whether you see places like Leicester, Blackburn and other hot spots spike up.
 

F-Red

Full Member
Joined
Nov 15, 2008
Messages
10,895
Location
Cheshire
Christ, wasn't the promise 200 k tests a day about 2 months ago ?
They're only opening tests for people who don't have symptoms in places where its declared a hotspot. Otherwise you need to have symptoms or declared self isolating. Capacity is reported at 338k.
 

Redplane

( . Y . ) planned for Christmas
Joined
Sep 4, 2013
Messages
10,344
Location
The Royal Kingdom of Trumpistan
Anyone in here who tested positive? What symptoms did you have?

Going to have myself tested tomorrow because the online assessment seems to say I should self isolate but with my job and my family s dependency on me its very hard to do that for two weeks so hopefully in a few days I'll know whether it s just a minor flu or severe cold. Wearing mask around the house just in case.
 

jymufc20

Last Man Standing finalist 2019/20
Joined
Jan 5, 2015
Messages
3,584
Location
planet earth
Anyone in here who tested positive? What symptoms did you have?

Going to have myself tested tomorrow because the online assessment seems to say I should self isolate but with my job and my family s dependency on me its very hard to do that for two weeks so hopefully in a few days I'll know whether it s just a minor flu or severe cold. Wearing mask around the house just in case.
What symptoms have you got ? I haven't tested positive, fortunately never had symptoms so never needed a test.

Took part in an antibody study yesterday though and came up negative.
 

Anustart89

Full Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2013
Messages
15,940
Anyone in here who tested positive? What symptoms did you have?

Going to have myself tested tomorrow because the online assessment seems to say I should self isolate but with my job and my family s dependency on me its very hard to do that for two weeks so hopefully in a few days I'll know whether it s just a minor flu or severe cold. Wearing mask around the house just in case.
I tested positive about two months ago. Sore throat for ten days. No cough. Lost sense of taste and smell on the 7th day or so, lasted for about six days. My girlfriend had muscle pain for the first two or three days and a sore throat and lost her sense of taste/smell for about four days. Symptoms lasted for 10-11 days in total.
 

Redplane

( . Y . ) planned for Christmas
Joined
Sep 4, 2013
Messages
10,344
Location
The Royal Kingdom of Trumpistan
What symptoms have you got ? I haven't tested positive, fortunately never had symptoms so never needed a test.

Took part in an antibody study yesterday though and came up negative.
Hot and cold flashes with some profuse sweating at night (no fever tho) , headache for three days now, sore throat and out of breath very quickly, even when driving a car which doesn't make much sense to me compared doing an actual physical activity. Just overall very exhausted/drained of energy.
 

Redplane

( . Y . ) planned for Christmas
Joined
Sep 4, 2013
Messages
10,344
Location
The Royal Kingdom of Trumpistan
I tested positive about two months ago. Sore throat for ten days. No cough. Lost sense of taste and smell on the 7th day or so, laster for about six days. My girlfriend had muscle pain for the first two or three days and a sore throat and lost her sense of taste/smell for about four days. Symptoms lasted for 10-11 days in total.
Sounds kinda similar to me (see above). Ty.
It's just too bad that some of it seems so similar to things I've experienced with a flu or bad cold so it's hard to tell without getting tested.
 

F-Red

Full Member
Joined
Nov 15, 2008
Messages
10,895
Location
Cheshire
Hot and cold flashes with some profuse sweating at night (no fever tho) , headache for three days now, sore throat and out of breath very quickly, even when driving a car which doesn't make much sense to me compared doing an actual physical activity. Just overall very exhausted/drained of energy.
Based on everything there it sounds like you have it and I would follow the advice to isolate.
 

jymufc20

Last Man Standing finalist 2019/20
Joined
Jan 5, 2015
Messages
3,584
Location
planet earth
Hot and cold flashes with some profuse sweating at night (no fever tho) , headache for three days now, sore throat and out of breath very quickly, even when driving a car which doesn't make much sense to me compared doing an actual physical activity. Just overall very exhausted/drained of energy.
Hope it's just a cold pal, and nothing serious.
 

NinjaFletch

Full Member
Joined
Sep 30, 2009
Messages
19,818
Anyone in here who tested positive? What symptoms did you have?

Going to have myself tested tomorrow because the online assessment seems to say I should self isolate but with my job and my family s dependency on me its very hard to do that for two weeks so hopefully in a few days I'll know whether it s just a minor flu or severe cold. Wearing mask around the house just in case.
You should self isolate.
 

Anustart89

Full Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2013
Messages
15,940
Sounds kinda similar to me (see above). Ty.
It's just too bad that some of it seems so similar to things I've experienced with a flu or bad cold so it's hard to tell without getting tested.
Your symptoms really sound like you might have it though. It's not really flu season anymore, nor are there many cold viruses going around. If the test comes back negative, are you going to take your chances with it not being covid and being out and about? There's a false negative ratio that isn't negligible.

I had a colleague who was tested the same day I was who was ill with a severe cough and shortness of breath. She tested negative for Covid but was advised to stay at home and not come into work. Was out five weeks before she was able to work again. Everyone's convinced it was Covid despite that negative test result.