SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Sarni

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Office space is leased in years at a time. No company will be saving money by asking people to wfh in the short-term.
Besides cost of office space is vastly overestimated when discussing company SG&A structure. It’s unlikely to amount to more a small fraction of cost, and is multiple times lower than labor. A lot of companies are also now subsiding employee’s work from home environment by giving away vouchers to buy second screen, chair etc. which in the short term is going to be much more expensive than savings provided by decreased usage of office space.

Where companies will save money, and substantial amount even in the short term, is travel, entertainment and events. That will also be money other companies will miss and will put a lot of them in bankruptcy or on the verge of it.
 

Stanley Road

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I just think most employers will go back to the old normal as soon as they can do legally
How? My question to the employer is can you guarantee my safety in the building? Can you guarantee my safety om public transport on the way in? The answer to both those questions is no. So legally we are not bound to go in despite what employers demand.
 

Revan

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Moderna's vaccine costing 32-37USD for smaller contractors, hinting that it will be cheaper when tens of millions of it are gonna get ordered.

Do people think that the government are gonna take the cost or it will be to people themselves paying? My bet would be on the governments.
 

Striker10

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While this pandemic is undoubtedly causing a lot of problems to the world, it actually provides an opportunity for us to transform into a better society and economy. The productivity doesn't necessarily drop working from home, in some business it is actually more efficient as it saves time from transportation. People can also work in a more comfortable environment with a computer they are familiar with. Twitter and Square have already announced that they provide their employees an option to work from home permanently.

The same also applies to education. With online teaching, students don't have to wake up at 6am in the morning attending lectures where they fall asleep in. I understand there are some face-to-face experience that can never be replaced (e.g. lab work, exams), and the current lockdown measures are too extreme to adopt sustainably, but there are ways that the society can operate more efficiently than before. We shouldn't stick to the tradition just because we're used to it, we should always look for better ways to create a better world.

IPTV is the future. Working from home? They already thought about that. Removing money from circulation? They're already doing it. And when they take and keep taking, people are so intelligent they don't even ask for anything back because they don't have it in their mind. They might vote.....and that person will be your Representative and they will do nothing. If you want a better world, you NEED God because the idea is character building but if people think their is no potential consequence and rely on others never lying to them then there's not much to be said. People NEED to fix themselves and engage their brain because your brain is £££ to others. It's just real estate. People need God.

People are inherently stupid because they shame other people for using their brain. We live in a naming and shaming society. People need to accept God. Embrace it. Correct THEMSELVES....ourselves...and maybe things improve but most people are much to selfish and they don't know how to think. Because they found a comfortable place that works for them. The average person isn't running the show
 

hmchan

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Besides cost of office space is vastly overestimated when discussing company SG&A structure. It’s unlikely to amount to more a small fraction of cost, and is multiple times lower than labor. A lot of companies are also now subsiding employee’s work from home environment by giving away vouchers to buy second screen, chair etc. which in the short term is going to be much more expensive than savings provided by decreased usage of office space.

Where companies will save money, and substantial amount even in the short term, is travel, entertainment and events. That will also be money other companies will miss and will put a lot of them in bankruptcy or on the verge of it.
These are just startup costs which could possibly be offset in the long run, just like setting up a new office. Besides, if companies decide to implement working from home permanently, they could also provide the screens and chairs to their employees with their current ones.

I'm not sure about the situation in the west but in Hong Kong, the cost of running a office is pretty high as the rent is incredible.
 

Wumminator

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IPTV is the future. Working from home? They already thought about that. Removing money from circulation? They're already doing it. And when they take and keep taking, people are so intelligent they don't even ask for anything back because they don't have it in their mind. They might vote.....and that person will be your Representative and they will do nothing. If you want a better world, you NEED God because the idea is character building but if people think their is no potential consequence and rely on others never lying to them then there's not much to be said. People NEED to fix themselves and engage their brain because your brain is £££ to others. It's just real estate. People need God.
Oh sound. In completely unrelated news, is everyone in this thread managing to get their meds whilst the pandemic continues? I have a feeling it could be an issue.
 
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Sarni

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These are just startup costs which could possibly be offset in the long run, just like setting up a new office. Besides, if companies decide to implement working from home permanently, they could also provide the screens and chairs to their employees with their current ones.

I'm not sure about the situation in the west but in Hong Kong, the cost of running a office is pretty high as the rent is incredible.
Labor costs are very high in HK as well, aren’t they? Proportion is going to be similar between locations I believe. I don’t really have access to financials of our HK branch though so I wouldn’t know, can comment just on Europe.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Interesting that despite early lockdown and being hailed as an early Covid-19 success, Portugal currently has 52 excess deaths per million since March 25th, exactly the same as “failed” Sweden up to 28th July.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

Also highlights the dangers of drawing any conclusions from official death tolls.
If you’re going to compare outcomes in Sweden with other countries why not look at your neighbours? Surely that’s a fairer comparison?
 

Sarni

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If you’re going to compare outcomes in Sweden with other countries why not look at your neighbours? Surely that’s a fairer comparison?
Portugal are more comparable to Spain and Italy than they are to Scandinavia in terms of culture. Much more outgoing and enjoying large family gatherings, which helps the virus. Also they are a big tourist destination which makes it very difficult to contain spread of the virus in the Summer.
 
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If you’re going to compare outcomes in Sweden with other countries why not look at your neighbours? Surely that’s a fairer comparison?
Is it? Our population is double the size of our neighbours and our immigrant population isn’t remotely comparable to our neighbours.

As I’ve mentioned multiple times Pogue, Malmö/Skåne is still out performing Copenhagen with less than 300 deaths. Likely because they got a smaller dose of the virus than Stockholm in Feb/March.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Is it? Our population is double the size of our neighbours and our immigrant population isn’t remotely comparable to our neighbours.

As I’ve mentioned multiple times Pogue, Malmö/Skåne is still out performing Copenhagen with less than 300 deaths. Likely because they got a smaller dose of the virus than Stockholm in Feb/March.
No two countries are identical and making comparisons will always be flawed. Some comparisons are less flawed than others though. Comparing Sweden with other Nordic/Scandi countries is a much fairer comparison than picking on Portugal.
 
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No two countries are identical and making comparisons will always be flawed. Some comparisons are less flawed than others though. Comparing Sweden with other Nordic/Scandi countries is a much fairer comparison than picking on Portugal.
nonsense that, Sweden’s hardest hit areas by far were the large immigrant areas of Stockholm. Tensta, Rinkeby etc.. showing up to 40% having antibodies.

how is that remotely fair to compare to Norway? What are you reasons that Sweden can only be compared to their neighbours Pogue?

And 6 months in can you give me any explanation of why Skåne/Malmö only has 260 deaths?
 

Pogue Mahone

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nonsense that, Sweden’s hardest hit areas by far were the large immigrant areas of Stockholm. Tensta, Rinkeby etc.. showing up to 40% having antibodies.

how is that remotely fair to compare to Norway?

And 6 months in can you give me any explanation of why Skåne/Malmö only has 260 deaths?
I have no interest in getting into a back and forth with you about covid in Sweden. The only point I am making is that picking on Portugal to make Sweden look good is unfair. And I stand by that.
 

Hernandez - BFA

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I think once the coldish weather hits in October time - the second wave will begin.
Ever since starting my new job on the Respiratory ward on Wednesday, we've gone from 1 to 5 patients on the ward with it. Granted, a couple of them were "screening swabs" before sending them back to the care/residential home and them being asymptomatic/symptoms being disguised by their chronic lung conditions.

I saw a picture from Cardiff yesterday and it was absolutely heaving. Someone could have shown me the picture and told me it was a picture of a Wales rugby match day five or so hours prior to kick off - and I would have believed them. I think people just don't give a shit anymore. I was talking to my barber for the first time for 5 months last week, and I've been one of the fortunate fecks who have been able to continue work (and to be honest, it hardly affected me at all given I was still seeing patients day to day). But hearing him saying that for 3/4 months, he had absolutely nothing to do - it hit home how much it can affect people.

The fear factor is gone. The 700+ or so deaths a day is no more, and I feel people are just fed up of the all thing now.

Unfortunately, many more will die in a few months. The winter pressures in hospitals are already horrendous, and given how it'll be almost impossible to social distance patients during winter given how there will be beds beside each other in corridors regularly, the numbers will rise.
 
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I have no interest in getting into a back and forth with you about covid in Sweden. The only point I am making is that picking on Portugal to make Sweden look good is unfair. And I stand by that.
Unfair is ignoring that Stockholm likely had 10 times the amount of Covid circulating around in February and early March than Skåne/Malmö, Denmark, Finland.
It’s utterly unfair to compare any countries initial deaths without knowing that.

And now Sweden can’t be compared with Holland, Belgium, The UK, Spain, Italy or Portugal either... ”fair”.

At least concede that case load before Covid-19 hit Italy is an unknown variable that likely played the biggest part in a country/city’s original death wave.
 
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djembatheking

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I think once the coldish weather hits in October time - the second wave will begin.
Ever since starting my new job on the Respiratory ward on Wednesday, we've gone from 1 to 5 patients on the ward with it. Granted, a couple of them were "screening swabs" before sending them back to the care/residential home and them being asymptomatic/symptoms being disguised by their chronic lung conditions.

I saw a picture from Cardiff yesterday and it was absolutely heaving. Someone could have shown me the picture and told me it was a picture of a Wales rugby match day five or so hours prior to kick off - and I would have believed them. I think people just don't give a shit anymore. I was talking to my barber for the first time for 5 months last week, and I've been one of the fortunate fecks who have been able to continue work (and to be honest, it hardly affected me at all given I was still seeing patients day to day). But hearing him saying that for 3/4 months, he had absolutely nothing to do - it hit home how much it can affect people.

The fear factor is gone. The 700+ or so deaths a day is no more, and I feel people are just fed up of the all thing now.

Unfortunately, many more will die in a few months. The winter pressures in hospitals are already horrendous, and given how it'll be almost impossible to social distance patients during winter given how there will be beds beside each other in corridors regularly, the numbers will rise.
You are right , people don`t care anymore, it is heaving in North Wales too, pubs and shops are full on with people from all over the UK , masks aren`t mandatory so aren`t being worn .
 
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Wow, even some media finally starting to question the “failure”.

Lockdown supporters cannot bear the thought that Sweden has got it right

Sweden has fulfilled the same role during the Covid-19 crisis as Argentina fulfils in every World Cup. It’s the team which everyone – apart from the natives themselves, naturally – wants to get beaten. This has been especially true in the liberal US press, which has taken time off from berating Donald Trump to publish lengthy pieces on the supposed failure of the Swedish approach. “The Swedish government didn’t enforce social distancing,” began the Washington Monthly, for example, in May when Sweden briefly had the world’s highest death rate from the disease. “It’s now paying the price – in lives and GDP.”
Even neighbouring Nordic countries – normally peas in a pod – have taken against Sweden. When Denmark and Norway re-opened their borders to the world they initially left out Sweden. Sweden’s chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, who has acquired a rock star image among some of his countrymen, is seen as a maverick by many abroad.

It’s not hard to see why politicians, officials and many others around the world need Sweden to fail and to fail spectacularly. If the Scandinavian country is not seen to suffer for its failure to lock down its population and close down much of its economy then citizens in other countries are going to start asking awkward questions.


For a while it looked as if Sweden might well fail spectacularly. While other, locked-down countries saw their rates of new infection plummet and gradually unlocked, infections in Sweden remained stubbornly high. Economic projections suggested that Sweden was going to suffer a deep recession anyway. All those needless deaths, it seemed, and Swedes were still going to lose their jobs.

Then came July, and a reminder that lockdown is no long-term solution to a pandemic. Infection rates began to creep up in countries which had locked down – first Spain, then Germany, France, Belgium. Some have been going to into selective second lockdowns. All they had really done by incarcerating their populations for weeks is sweep the virus under the carpet for another day. Sweden, by contrast, has as yet seen no second wave.


Meanwhile, the Swedish economy has surprised on the upside. Last week, its economy was revealed to have shrunk by 8.6 per cent in the second quarter – cataclysmic by normal standards, of course, yet in the circumstances it counts as a triumph. GDP across the Eurozone shrank by 12 per cent, with Spain’s economy plunging by 18 per cent quarter on quarter. Britain’s GDP figures won’t be out until next Wednesday, but we will be doing very well if we don’t out-shrink Spain. At one point the Office of Budgetary Responsibility was penciling in a 35 per cent plunge for the UK in the second quarter.

There was no way that Sweden, with many of its neighbours’ economies closed, was going to escape without a sharp contraction. Volvo, for example, suffered a 38 per cent fall in sales as showrooms across Europe were closed. Nevertheless, there is an intriguing possibility that Sweden could be just about the only developed country to manage to get through the Covid-19 crisis without technically suffering a recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.


Alone in Europe, it managed to grow its economy by 0.4 percent in the first quarter. One after another, Swedish companies have produced results which have exceeded expectations. There have been few bankruptcies. What’s more, having kept factories and other workplaces open throughout the crisis, the Swedes have an advantage in the recovery. They don’t have a workforce which has lost the habit of working, which enjoyed weeks off in the spring sunshine and is now reluctant to return.

But was it worth all those deaths? The case against Sweden rests on comparisons with its neighbours, Denmark and Norway. On that basis, Sweden looks to have come off badly – its 571 deaths per million residents seems reckless compared with that of Denmark (106) or Norway (47). But then are Denmark and Norway the right comparators?

Sweden has much more significant urban areas compared with Norway, and it has a high number people who take skiing holidays in the Alps – which seems to have been the seat, or one of the main seats, of Covid-19 in Europe. Significantly, Sweden has a lower death rate than many European countries which did go into full lockdown, such as Italy (582), Spain (610), the UK (683) and Belgium (850).

But even if Sweden has suffered a relatively high number of deaths to date, that is not the end of the story. As John Giesecke, Sweden’s former chief epidemiologist and adviser to the World Health Organisation (WHO), argued in April we won’t really be able to judge how different countries have performed until the crisis has reached some kind of conclusion, either through a vaccine or the natural decline of the virus. His belief is that, eventually, comparable countries will have similar death rates, but the misery – both health and economic – will be spread out far longer in some than others.


Were an effective vaccine to become available this autumn, then the suppression strategy proposed in Professor Neil Ferguson’s paper of March 16 and followed by most developed countries, will seem wise. But just how long are governments prepared to suppress their economies? The longer a vaccine takes to arrive – and there is no guarantee that a vaccine will ever be approved, even if early trials have been promising – then the more that the Swedish approach will seem appealing.

The disappointing news from Sweden’s point of view is that antibody tests suggest that the country is still far from achieving herd immunity. The country’s Public Health Agency revealed in June that even in Stockholm, the worst-affected place in the country, only 10 percent of the population had antibodies – way short of the 60 to 80 percent which our own chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, suggested would be needed for herd immunity.


Not all scientists are agreed on this, however. Last week, modelling in a yet-to-be published paper by an international group of scientists led by Gabriella Gomes of Strathclyde University claimed that the 60 percent is only applicable where herd immunity is gained through a vaccine programme given randomly to a population. If a virus is allowed to spread naturally, on the other hand, it will affect the more susceptible people first (people who either have fewer natural defences or who have more contacts).

Once this group has been infected, the virus finds it much harder to spread and herd immunity will be reached at a much lower level – when between 10 and 20 percent of the population have been infected. If that is right, Sweden might be far closer to herd immunity than previously believed.

In the meantime, Sweden finds itself with unfamiliar friends and unfamiliar enemies. Thanks to its generous welfare policies it is more often a country praised on the left and condemned by economic liberals. Now it is now the other way around. Ultimately Sweden might just end up pleasing both groups – if, thanks to a less-damaged economy, it emerges as the only country able to avoid deep welfare cuts.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ers-cannot-bear-thought-sweden-has-got-right/
 

F-Red

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UK update - 8 deaths, 1,062 cases.

Testing up 12% from the prior week, case average up 16% from the prior week. 7 day death average down by 16%.
 

oates

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Interesting reading including table of cases per 100.000. As always with these things each country's results must purely be a snapshot in time that only the scientists can understand each country's trajectory through the spread of this disease and I guess we'll not have any idea of the so called 'winners and losers' at this point in time.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
 
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Interesting reading including table of cases per 100.000. As always with these things each country's results must purely be a snapshot in time that only the scientists can understand each country's trajectory through the spread of this disease and I guess we'll not have any idea of the so called 'winners and losers' at this point in time.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
I still maintain as I have since the start, as death tolls go, we’ll likely all be losers to a similar degree.
There has always been an inevitability about it for me, countries can kick the can down the road but the vast majority will get caught in the end.
Unless of course something ridiculous might happen like an October vaccine or that countries allow their health systems to get twatted.
 

Pogue Mahone

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I still maintain as I have since the start, as death tolls go, we’ll likely all be losers to a similar degree.
There has always been an inevitability about it for me, countries can kick the can down the road but the vast majority will get caught in the end.
Unless of course something ridiculous might happen like an October vaccine or that countries allow their health systems to get twatted.
All things being equal, countries that were hit hardest very early on will end up with the worst death tolls. Even without a “cure” we’ve learned a lot about how to manage covid patients over the last few months, with mortality rates falling as a result. I’d certainly rather catch it now than in March (which may actually happen, I’ve developed a flu-like illness over the weekend and am getting tested tomorrow :nervous:)
 

redshaw

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373 deaths in total this week for the UK. Last week was 449 and two weeks ago 452, so a decent drop.
 

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Interesting theme from Preston, which is consistent with Trafford, was that over half of the reported cases in the last week have been from those under the age of 30.
That's the demographic I'm seeing without masks in shops too, funnily enough. People who think they are immune, apparently.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Good luck chap
Cheers. Whole thing has made me realise why loads of people might avoid coming forward with mild symptoms. Having to self-isolate for two weeks would be a nightmare plus I’m messing up my family’s week (kids have had to cancel soccer camps) and any friend I’ve hung out with in last fortnight has to go through the same rigmarole all over again if I test positive. They won’t be happy with me at all.
 

golden_blunder

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IPTV is the future. Working from home? They already thought about that. Removing money from circulation? They're already doing it. And when they take and keep taking, people are so intelligent they don't even ask for anything back because they don't have it in their mind. They might vote.....and that person will be your Representative and they will do nothing. If you want a better world, you NEED God because the idea is character building but if people think their is no potential consequence and rely on others never lying to them then there's not much to be said. People NEED to fix themselves and engage their brain because your brain is £££ to others. It's just real estate. People need God.

People are inherently stupid because they shame other people for using their brain. We live in a naming and shaming society. People need to accept God. Embrace it. Correct THEMSELVES....ourselves...and maybe things improve but most people are much to selfish and they don't know how to think. Because they found a comfortable place that works for them. The average person isn't running the show
Hi Angel Gomes!
 
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All things being equal, countries that were hit hardest very early on will end up with the worst death tolls. Even without a “cure” we’ve learned a lot about how to manage covid patients over the last few months, with mortality rates falling as a result. I’d certainly rather catch it now than in March (which may actually happen, I’ve developed a flu-like illness over the weekend and am getting tested tomorrow :nervous:)
That’s not always the case either Pogue, 4000 deaths from care homes here, no managing or learning about the virus is helping the vast majority of those. Life expectancy in a Swedish care home is 2 years in normal circumstances.
I do get your point though, just that once again I don’t think it’s that simple. There’s always going to be a demographic that is going to get hit hard at some point in most countries.
No doubt the majority of those 4000 deaths missing from Portugal’s official death toll are care home related. Holland’s appear to be.
 
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golden_blunder

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Cheers. Whole thing has made me realise why loads of people might avoid coming forward with mild symptoms. Having to self-isolate for two weeks would be a nightmare plus I’m messing up my family’s week (kids have had to cancel soccer camps) and any friend I’ve hung out with in last fortnight has to go through the same rigmarole all over again if I test positive. They won’t be happy with me at all.
Or you may have caught it from one of your friends?

Hopefully just a cold/flu. Good luck
 

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Cheers. Whole thing has made me realise why loads of people might avoid coming forward with mild symptoms. Having to self-isolate for two weeks would be a nightmare plus I’m messing up my family’s week (kids have had to cancel soccer camps) and any friend I’ve hung out with in last fortnight has to go through the same rigmarole all over again if I test positive. They won’t be happy with me at all.
My friend got tested today so if positive I'll isolate for 14 days, I'm trying to work out how best to do that in a house of four people. Good luck to you, let us know how you go on.
 

Pogue Mahone

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My friend got tested today so if positive I'll isolate for 14 days, I'm trying to work out how best to do that in a house of four people. Good luck to you, let us know how you go on.
Cheers. Will do.

Something else this made me think about is working from home when sick. Obviously I won’t be working while I’m getting my test but I’d say there will be an expectation that I’m online which wouldn’t be there if I had to phone in too sick to come to the office. So I’ll potentially be self-isolating, feeling like shit and still having to log on at work every day. Yay.