SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
If these deaths are still in the dozens next month then we can call it a mild second wave vis-a-vis Italy. However the people catching and testing positive now could wind up dead next month.
It might be bad, and there might be another lockdowns but I would be surprised if it ever gets as bad as in last spring. Checking just the number of confirmed infections is totally pointless when the number of testings has increased so much since then. Back then, even with clear symptoms and potentially having been in contact with confirmed cases was not guaranteed to get a test, while now you can easily get a test without any symptoms at all.
UK figures - 67 deaths, 16,982 cases
Yes - I'm not saying it's not going to be necessary or useful.
The time needs to be used productively. I don't know what's happening with track and trace in Wales, but it'd need to be used here to get things running properly, otherwise it's just kicking the can down the road and crippling businesses.
who knows 10,000 to invite them to a wedding?
It’s utterly baffling. Even getting 1000 people for a normal couple would be an extremely heavy lift.
what are you hiding sparky?
Dutch king goes on holiday to greece
public outcry
King comes home
Utter kunt
public outcry
King comes home
Utter kunt
Pretty good watch. Thanks for that.
What it boils down to is Spain depends so much on tourism that the risk was deemed to be worth taking in opening up the country, which obviously failed big time and sending students back to school has basically caused this second outbreak to be so high which should of been avoided.
The jury is still out if they're trying their own model or if the government is as useless as suggested in the video. Whatever the reason Madrid was/is the epicenter and was left far too late to at least try and control the virus.
From 2 days ago we're back once again to all bars and restaurants being closed but I don't think it's going to reach the complete lockdown restrictions imposed at the start of the pandemic because basically Spain can't afford it.
How are Spanish population behaving in general?
Is their rebellion or are people willing to accept the restrictions?
In general the people are accepting the restrictions. No one (at least in barcelona) is going out without masks not only for their own safety but also because its impossible to go into shops, use public transport etc etc without them. There were demonstrations from people in the hospitality business but there were no reported problems.
Spain can be quite volatile as proved last year in Catalunya with the political prisoners riots but I don't think it's ever going to reach those heights with covid.
There's a lot of friction between Catalunya and Madrid so I suppose it all depends on what the Spanish government think "what's best" for the Catalan people.
The problem with Spain it goes deeper than that. Life is unaffordable and thats the reality of things. This causes among the 2 most dens cities in europe (Barcelona the first), people living in smaller spaces sometimes without windows. At the same time, lots of people are working payed under the table what don't allow them to access to economic help and can't afford to test positive and go work regardless.
Being true that there is friction between Catalunya and Spain, currently there is mostly nothing on that and is most right against left. The spanish government is left (oficially because is mostly centered) and the local Madrid government is extreme right - right coalition and they are contradicting themselves constantly making any direction and strategy impossible to be trusted. Spain is a cainite country
Being true that there is friction between Catalunya and Spain, currently there is mostly nothing on that and is most right against left. The spanish government is left (oficially because is mostly centered) and the local Madrid government is extreme right - right coalition and they are contradicting themselves constantly making any direction and strategy impossible to be trusted. Spain is a cainite country
Deaths are far from the only issue as lots of people get long term problems and in any case the death rate will skyrocket if ICU's become over whelmed. And 3% of the UK's population is just shy of 2 million people. This is a health problem and should first and foremost be dealt with as such. The economic costs that entails should then be mitigated. You shouldn't start from the $ value and work back for ethical reason's imo. Overwhelmed hospitals will also prevent people with things like cancer getting the treatment so things would be worse, not better. And economically controlling the spread also makes sense.
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Places hit hardest in the northern spring are those copping it again now on average.
Hospital admissions rising in most European countries
Peru and Ecuador have the highest excess deaths rates among countries producing comparable data: Measures of excess mortality* by country, during Covid-19 outbreaks
India has been forced to open up for economic reasons, curious how the numbers will look over the coming months.
Hopefully the lack of a severe winter keeps them low.
South Africa is in a somewhat similar boat.
UK and Spain have the dual hit of high deaths and a major contraction. Not sure if either country can take another quarter of contraction. The US actually hasn't done so terribly for a country of its size.
Thanks for sharing these charts wibble.
All from a Tweet someone else shared earlier. The main site is here https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data/ and there is more to be released every day this week.
The fear is that massive under-reporting could be why their deaths looks so good. I hope not of course.
Even if the actual death count was 100% higher, it would still be very low. India is too chaotic a democracy with lots of independent media for the number to be a thousand % higher.
The initial lockdown while mismanaged was very stringent, so they never had the high fatalities and hospital loads the epicenters in Europe, US and South America had in March and April, and their high case count was in August and September by which point therapeutics had improved.
That said, I would hazard a guess that the 24% GDP contraction probably killed more people living below the poverty line. These are tough choices for countries like India and South Africa.
We are turning Warsaw national stadium into a temporary hospital and morgue. Other large cities will do the same with their arenas soon.
At the same time others are on the streets screaming ‘don’t be a slave, leave home and live’, ‘drop the mask and breathe’. Twice over weekend I’ve been told that I have been brainwashed by TV and it’s just a much, much milder flu, only doctors are all getting paid heavy money to put covid in death certificates.
This is beyond a mess and it’s only getting started.
At the same time others are on the streets screaming ‘don’t be a slave, leave home and live’, ‘drop the mask and breathe’. Twice over weekend I’ve been told that I have been brainwashed by TV and it’s just a much, much milder flu, only doctors are all getting paid heavy money to put covid in death certificates.
This is beyond a mess and it’s only getting started.
I don't think you need to look for conspiracies on that one. India just has a very young population. Nearly half the population is 19 or under, who the CDC estimate have a 0.003% mortality risk. So if all of the 463m Indians aged 0-19 contracted the virus, you would "only" expect 13,886 to die. And if the 850m people under 49 (i.e. 83% of the population) contracted the virus the overall mortality figure would still be less than 100k. Those under 49 represent just 64% in the US, or 62% in the UK.
So even though a population 3x smaller, you would expect more people to die from covid there if it spread to the entire population. And because those under 70 represent just 3% of the Indian population vs. 11% of the US population, and then you add in the other risk factors like obesity etc., it's just the case that while the virus is spreading in a semi-controlled manner, the at-risk populations in India are much less likely to be exposed to it because they occupy a much smaller segment of society. Which theoretically should also make them easier to shield, but then you've got the cultural and economic factors working against that.
I don't think anyone is suggesting a conspiracy. Just that a country the size of India with a large part of the population rural and poor may well have inconsistent reporting of covid deaths.
Yeah, it's surely a factor, but it is the case that India should have much fewer deaths than countries with similar numbers of cases, and we should expect that to maintain throughout the pandemic. The only way it wouldn't is if there was a massive health system collapse.
Totally agree with the point.. just pointing out that the data is from a 20 year old census.
Was trying to find some new data.. couldnt find anything.. but saw some comparisons between 2001 and 2011... while then population increased by 20% (wtf?), the 0-6 yr age group was pretty much the same 10 years apart.
And even that data is 10 years old..
India is still a very young country, but I would imagine the 0-19 would be close to 30% of the population right now.
We are currently at about 10% of Spring when you look at hospitalization and ICU figures, although it is rising quickly. I dont see it getting that bad again because the government is on top of it now, and crucially everybody still remembers March and accepts that sacrifices need to be made.
Big call
With no vaccine, at some point the focus will have to be on the vulnerable, they (includes me!) will have to be isolated completely and everyone else get on with their lives.
Personally if the government will pay for me to have a Skysports with box office contract, sign me up to use Netflix, (at no cost) etc. get Sainsbury to deliver my food (I will pay for the food) and deliver my medication, then I will stay indoors (my garden when weather permits) until the vaccine is available.
Oh yes and if its possible, a new (free) widescreen wall mounted HD TV, with surround sound would be nice!
Personally if the government will pay for me to have a Skysports with box office contract, sign me up to use Netflix, (at no cost) etc. get Sainsbury to deliver my food (I will pay for the food) and deliver my medication, then I will stay indoors (my garden when weather permits) until the vaccine is available.
Oh yes and if its possible, a new (free) widescreen wall mounted HD TV, with surround sound would be nice!
Bloody socialist.
Get a new house if he’s a forrownuh
really? ...drat, just bought a new phone!
Wales will go into a national lockdown from Friday until 9 November, First Minister Mark Drakeford has announced.
Everyone will be told to stay at home, while pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops will shut.
Everyone will be told to stay at home, while pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops will shut.
What makes you think there will be no vaccine. It is looking more and more like when rather than if.
I swear I have reached the point in this thread when I know who the poster is without checking the username
Now for Pogue to reply to this and state that we are all fecked.
Anyways, thanks for your posts, Wibble, you are bringing some much-needed positivity into this. I mean it.
Pfizer is mass producing a vaccine about 10km from my home as we speak. They hope it'll get approved fast. Fingers crossed.
What happens in countries where 70% of people will refuse to get vaccines? Do you force them to, or limit their rights to travel abroad etc. if they don't have vaccine certificate?