Top managers win competitive big trophies in their early managerial career

Interesting hypothesis but it over-emphasizes the value of a trophy while ignores the increased difficulty of winning trophies with outsider teams.

It's unlikely that SAF could replicate his success with Aberdeen today. And it's also unlikely that winning relatively easier leagues with big teams (E.g Porto or Rangers) is any harbinger for greatness.

SAF - Aberdeen

Mourinho - Porto, first club Benfica

Pep - Barcelona

Zidane - Real Madrid

Klopp - Dortmund, first club Mainze

LVG - Ajax (golden generation)

Cruijff - Ajax

Ancelotti - Milan, first club Reggiana

Wenger - Monaco, first club Nancy

Hitzfeld - Grasshopper first club Zug

Capello - Milan

These managers can't be categorized under age or tenure. Some of them worked their way up from nothing, getting noticed by how well they were doing. A few of them started with a pool of players that would be the envy of the world to manage and got the job through nepotism rather than merit. Would Koeman get a sniff at the Barcelona job if not for his legacy as a player there? Ole at United?

These days it's even harder to win a title because money has become such a big divider. Chelsea was thought of like a big underdog when they won the CL in 2012. Chelsea, one of the most expensive squads in the world with Cech, Terry, Cole, Lampard, Essien, Drogba etc. Is that your Cinderella story winner? No. Besides Mourinho there hasn't been a Cinderella story winner in the CL since the dawn of billionaire owners. It's all massive clubs that win it. Leagues are similar. Ranieri with Leicester, Klopp with Dortmund and arguably Liverpool, Simeone with Atlético and Jardim with Monaco are the only "upsets" in the past 10 years in the 5 biggest leagues in football. At most 6 out of 50 league titles and even then Klopp won before Bayern became the dominant force they are today with the 2nd biggest club in Germany. Simeone won with the 3rd biggest club in Spain and Jardim's Monaco team was hardly cheap.

Most of OPs examples are managers from the 90's but football is different now. PSG have won 7 of the last 8 titles. Juventus 9 in a row. Bayern the last 8. Real and Barce 9 of the last 10. Plenty of different managers in there, it hardly matters. These clubs are going to win.

Premier League is the unique league here with 5 different winners in the past 10 years or 4 different winners after SAF retired. 5 is as many winners as have won the Primeira Liga (Portugal) in its entire history (2 clubs with a single win). The answer to why is the same as why the other leagues have fewer winners. Money. There's more of it in England. The teams in 2nd tier in England are so rich that they can realistically mount a title challenge because there's a lot of very good players out there looking for the biggest paycheck and the likes of Liverpool, Everton, Arsenal and Tottenham who aren't behemoths of money like City, United and Chelsea can still pay great wages compared to rest of the world.

Nah life doesn’t work like that.

SinNombre said:

Early managerial career : first 10 years of management, or by age 45.

Kind obvious but not every person who accomplishes this is guaranteed to be an all time great.

SAF - won the Scottish league with Aberdeen at age 38 (and two more league wins and the european cup winners cup with them beating RM at age 41).

Mourinho - won the Portuguese league and UEFA cup with Porto at age 40 (first league win for them in 4 years) and then won the CL at age 41.

Pep - won la liga and the CL as a manager at 38

Zidane - won the CL at age 43 and then la liga the next year at age 44.

Klopp - won the Bundesliga with Bvb at age 43

LVG - won the Eredivisie with Ajax at age 42 and 43, and the CL with them at 43

Cruijff - league and cup winners cup double with Ajax at 40, league win with Barca at 43

Ancelotti - won Serie A at age 44 with Milan (their first win in 5 years and one of only 2 league titles in the past 25!)

Wenger - won the league with Monaco at age 39. Slightly underwhelming achievement compared to the rest but he is also (relatively) an underwhelming manager.

Hitzfeld is a slight exception given he stayed and kept winning in Switzerland for a long time before moving to Bvb and winning the league with them at 46 and the CL at 47.


Anyways, the point is for those looking to replace Ole and wanting him replaced with a great manager, the answer cannot be the likes of Poch (48 and never won anything) or Marco Rose (44 and same).

If RB Leipzig can actually win the league or CL, then you are talking about Nagelsmann as someone who is following in the footsteps of the greats and I can fully buy into the hype train. Domenico Tedesco could also be an interesting one if he can win the Russian league and take Spartak deep in Europe.

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Using your own logic, Pep would not get a job at Barca. Mourinho would not get a job at Porto. Klopp would not get a job at BVB.

Managers have potential just like players. You can say all great players won major trophy quite early in their careers. So what? Does that mean we should not look at up and coming players?

Not sure if you have to win something by 40 or 45 or whatever that number is but definitely that’s the period when you can see managers making a mark. It goes for commentators and pundits too. They just come out of playing and are expected to be on top of the latest methodologies and processes. Also, they’re able to relate to players more easily than older coaches.

And the good ones definitely prove themselves if and when they get an opportunity. It would be really difficult to leave the world of football after retiring, take a break for 10-15 years, and suddenly come back to become a top manager. They at least need to be employed as a coach with some top club to be constantly learning and developing themselves.

This is why Neville was refreshing and articulate when he first came on. Whereas Roy Keane is so out of touch that he comes across like an old uncle who just believes the current generation is useless.

Pablo18th said:

I'd argue top managers win the league in their home country

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How does that rate Fergie then ?

amolbhatia50k said:

Interesting. Would you expect the other managers to win major silverware with Leipzig? Also, who are the available managers who have won a major trophy under 45? Because if there aren't any, then isn't the next alternative someone who can win it before 50?

Just seems like a really random and close-minded criteria which doesn't take into account context of any sort, nor the reality we find ourselves in. It's probably why we can't progress. Our whole thought process is random and ad-hoc. Ticking boxes and random shit like that. We should be going for a manager who we believe has the tactical qualities to implement a modern style of football that can change this football club for the better for the coming decade.

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Arteta just won the FA Cup with Arsenal aged 38

Is it just me or does this feel like OP started with a premise of showing Ole as "not having achieved" as much as elite coaches and working backwards from that. We all know Ole's not achieved nearly as much other established coaches yet, but why there is a constant need to limit his potential as a manager I can't for the life of me understand.
And why are we not counting Ole's success with Molde? Ok Its not winning in of the major leagues but its still winning. It's gotta count for something surely?

Regarding the actual statistic, all it shows is that some of the best managers and coaches have been successful early in their careers. Thats hardly a revelation. There have been numerous that achieved early and then fizzed off, similarly there have been late bloomers. This just seems like another excuse to have a go at our manager during a bad period.

SinNombre said:

Sorry for not getting on the hype train of every fad coach from the Bundesliga.

Maybe we should anoint Schuster or Schmidt or Kohlfeldt as the next chosen ones as some of you clowns were saying a few years back.


As for the rest of your drivel, Klopp got relegated with Mainz. Sign of a terrible manager folks. Never sign anyone who has been relegated with a terrible club. Fire Ole immediately.

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Schuster has not coached a single first division game in Germany in his entire life.

You would have to be one of these people who can't see any nuance in coaching quality besides titles won to think Schmidt and Kohfeldt are (or were) on a similar level to Nagelsmann's current. But then people who "analyse" like that wouldn't get excited about a coach who hasn't won "big competitive trophies" yet, would they?

Klopp got relegated with Mainz, a club that he got promoted himself for the first time, who were always (among) the very poorest in the league.
Schalke on the other hand are the third biggest club in Germany and when Tedesco took over things weren't nearly as bad as they are now, infact during his time they made quite significant investments by their standards. Surely you see the difference?

humiliated said:

Arteta just won the FA Cup with Arsenal aged 38

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GOAT manager

humiliated said:

How does that rate Fergie then ?

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He's Scottish and won the Scottish league 3 times, His work with Aberdeen which is for the most part forgotten by fans is also a huge factor in what makes him great.

SinNombre said:

Au contraire.

It was to argue that there is no point replacing Ole with a Poch or Marco Rose who have a long enough managerial resume at this point to know they won't be at the level United fans want to be back at.

It would be a different argument if there was an early 40s Klopp or Jose in the market.

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How long is Marco Rose's managerial resume?

Adnan said:

How long is Marco Rose's managerial resume?

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It's funny isn't it? Tries to make an "analytical thread" dedicated to discrediting Rose (and Poch): says that his resume is long enough to judge him, when the guy really only has coached three seasons at top level, two at Salzburg where he won the league twice (not that it means that much, given their competitive advantage) and more importantly made an EL semi and another one at Gladbach, where he got a pretty good top 4 finish.
Not to mention "well if he was early 40s Klopp"; the same Klopp who actually spent most of that period getting relegated with Mainz and then left them for Dortmund after failing to win back promotion - where he initially got 6th and 5th place. Now of course Klopp's promise was very visible even then, but somehow I doubt that someone who dismisses Rose, because he hasn't won a top league in his first couple of years of senior coaching, would see the world class coach hiding in a "young" Klopp whose career peak before that first win was making 5th place.

This is a stupid way of judging managers imo.

humiliated said:

How does that rate Fergie then ?

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He won it three times?

do.ob said:

It's funny isn't it? Tries to make an "analytical thread" dedicated to discrediting Rose (and Poch): says that his resume is long enough to judge him, when the guy really only has coached three seasons at top level, two at Salzburg where he won the league twice (not that it means that much, given their competitive advantage) and more importantly made an EL semi and another one at Gladbach, where he got a pretty good top 4 finish.
Not to mention "well if he was early 40s Klopp"; the same Klopp who actually spent most of that period getting relegated with Mainz and then left them for Dortmund after failing to win back promotion - where he initially got 6th and 5th place. Now of course Klopp's promise was very visible even then, but somehow I doubt that someone who dismisses Rose, because he hasn't won a top league in his first couple of years of senior coaching, would see the world class coach hiding in a "young" Klopp whose career peak before that first win was making 5th place.

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I completely agree mate and your posts in this thread have been on the money.

Rose who has been on a upward trajectory since winning the UYL with Salzburg has shown in a short period of time that he has the potential to coach at a bigger club but that won't stop people trying to put him down at every turn for the most miniscule of things which I find bizarre.