It’s not about it going red, it’s about the margin the D wins it with. 30 pts is what you need it to be, 25 is near danger zone and anything even approaching 20 then the GOP will be ecstatic.Just can’t see M-D going red this election, whatever Latino gains Plump gets down there should be offset by seniors. As is usual in Florida, it might boil down to the uneducated white male thumpers again.
You forgot Gardner so Dems get to 52 with AZ, CO, ME, NC, IA, and 1 from GA. I think getting 51+ would be a great achievement, we shall see what happens.If I had to put money on it, I’d back both. I’d say both Gideon and Kelly are favoured at this point, so that’s your 4. (+1 probably in GA) need 1 or 2 more for a real progressive agenda to offset dinos like manchin. (You’re from AZ aye? Have you ever had a senator less popular than Mcsally?)
(point was, they are favoured but he could be more useful in NC than GA right now. Ga isn’t even gonna be a tipping point)
I get what you are saying. Banking needs to occur in SE Florida.It’s not about it going red, it’s about the margin the D wins it with. 30 pts is what you need it to be, 25 is near danger zone and anything even approaching 20 then the GOP will be ecstatic.
Just for reference, Clinton got about 670k votes margin out of M-D, Broward and Palm Beach in 2016, she lost statewide by 113k.
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Is the CA land tax changes one of those? I just fully read up on it and now know why one of my son's friend's dad hates the changes.Filled out my ballot today. Kinell, that took some time. So many other races and propositions. I’d say it took a full hour or more to bone up on all it. 3 pages full.
Wait, so the VP didn't walk into the gotcha question - setup by a Mike Pence reference no less - in a televised interview, the week before the election?this is beautiful. everything about class and race in politics (and also the uselessness of quantitative ideology scores) that have been increasingly clear since 2016, in 2 minutes.
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Who do you refer as the left here? I hope you don't mean Kamala.Wait, so the VP didn't walk into the gotcha question - setup by a Mike Pence reference no less - in a televised interview, the week before the election?
What a useless bunch the left are. She should have doubled down and just whipped off her shirt to show an antifa 4evA one underneath.
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That statement alone should be enough to remove any credibility from that org.Trump winning 30% of the Michigan Democrats
Biden winning 25% of Michigan Republicans
Trump winning 28% of the Black vote.
Nate's verbal battering caused them to kill the link to the data. Surely they've got to be dropped from the model now? There are outlier polls, then there is just fake nonsense like this lot.That statement alone should be enough to remove any credibility from that org.
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It would be the opposite of what you're seeing with heavy Dem turnout in early voting - heavy R turnout on election day, which would probably result in the perception that Trump is outperforming on election night since the early ballots would not all get counted until a day or two after the election.If that's legit what would the election day voting look like? I presume it will favor theangry whitesRepublicans.
Why would early ballots (not mail votes) get counted later ?It would be the opposite of what you're seeing with heavy Dem turnout in early voting - heavy R turnout on election day, which would probably result in the perception that Trump is outperforming on election night since the early ballots would not all get counted until a day or two after the election.
The early voting mail in ballots.Why would early ballots (not mail votes) get counted later ?
OK, what about the early votes in person, at polling stations, are they counted prior to election day or thats prohibited ?The early voting mail in ballots.
It varies by state, but it seems most states don't actually count until election day.OK, what about the early votes in person, at polling stations, are they counted prior to election day or thats prohibited ?
Its fine as long as they count them at the same time as the other ballots.It varies by state, but it seems most states don't actually count until election day.
Yes, that’s one of the 12 “propositions” on the ballot.Is the CA land tax changes one of those? I just fully read up on it and now know why one of my son's friend's dad hates the changes.
Thing is, thermometers have no impact on the actual temperature; election polls, on the other hand, can have an impact on the elections themselves. They can energise or depress voters, lull them into a sense of security, and so on. Admittedly, this close to the election it all seems rather pointless, with tens of millions of people having already voted. And it's hard to see in any case what a poll firmly entrenched in the realm of fantasy could achieve anyway but in theory, polls can have an influence.I just don't get the 'purpose' of these biased polls. The model appears to be 'tell the opposite story of reality', because, erm, both sides? But that's like being a thermometer that doesn't tell the right temperature - not worth existing.
Unequivocally yes. Unless this is a historic landslide the result will be days away at least, and maybe even then.Are we going to end up having to wait a few days to actually find anything out?
From all accounts, yes. Unless Biden wins in a landslide, we won't know who won the election only after a few days (at best), or few weeks if it reaches supreme court.How is the increase in early/mail ballots going to impact the calling of states on election night?
Are we going to end up having to wait a few days to actually find anything out?
i thought she gave a very good and revealing answer in response to specific policy questions. these weren't even setup as tough questions- for example do you think M4A could help in a pandemic with mass unemployment, do you think biden was wrong to say people can keep the health insurance of their choice, etc. it was a pretty direct question about her co-signing bills in 2018, pulling back from them publicly in 2019, and forgetting they exit in 2020. politics, in other words.Wait, so the VP didn't walk into the gotcha question - setup by a Mike Pence reference no less - in a televised interview, the week before the election?
We had murder hornets earlier this year.I've now got worrying visions of Trump just scraping through with a win on election night, calling it an unequivocal success, and then turning all fascist and preventing the mail in ballots from being counted.
Possibly followed by some sort of infectious killer bee outbreak or something.
Stipe has already asked him to stop using his tracks, but I guess Trump doesn't care at this late stage. Plus they apparently had a run in at a club in the late 90s where Stipe told him to shut up, so all the more reason for Trump to ignore him now.I'm watching Sky News live from Allentown, PA, where Trump is due to talk to a large crowd, and they are currently playing 'Everybody Hurts' by REM over the tannoy.
He's already tweeted about it, which is why 'Tim Apple' is currently the top trend on Twitter.Joe Biden, 77, forgets Donald Trump’s name during virtual rally
Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/26/joe-...me-during-virtual-rally-13481585/?ito=cbshare
Trump will be on to this.
Uh oh, you mean the laptop isn’t the number one trend?He's already tweeted about it, which is why 'Tim Apple' is currently the top trend on Twitter.
And then the period of time between when the results come in and when Biden is inaugurated should he win. To me that period of time has the potential to be the most insanely bizarre period of time in modern American history.Unequivocally yes. Unless this is a historic landslide the result will be days away at least, and maybe even then.
Biden for the popular vote and a closely fought battle for the electorate that I believe Biden will win. Then a soap opera of an exit by Trump.I am not following the US politics that much lately. Who is the favourite to win and by how much? Thanks
