SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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Quite the opposite! They couldn't have expected the vaccine to be 90% effective, that's huge. Light at the end of the tunnel!
90% is good right?
90% sounds great..
the press release - https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-r...d-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against
Does that number get thrown out? Or do they count in the 94 cases they evaluated? If they are counted, wouldnt that skew the efficacy data?
the press release - https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-r...d-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against
Does anyone know what happens to the candidates who got the vaccine first dose but tested positive within 28 days?
Does that number get thrown out? Or do they count in the 94 cases they evaluated? If they are counted, wouldnt that skew the efficacy data?
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Zero signs of lockdown being in place in London. Pubs are openly selling beer in plastic cups with large crowds gathering to sit with friends outside. Food stalls are all open, as are markets. It’s a bit mental.
If it was single digit temperatures with rain that might change. Weather like this and there’s no way people comply.
If it was single digit temperatures with rain that might change. Weather like this and there’s no way people comply.
Good question and it’s impossible to know from that press release. These press releases always highlight the good stuff and gloss over the bad stuff but the efficacy they’re talking about is exciting.
Although the fact this vaccine needs two doses is a bummer. They’re talking about manufacturing 1.5bn doses next year. Which means half that number of people can get vaccinated.
oxford st and piccadily circus were completely dead when i was there the other night, a few people around but nothing like usual. no pubs open. maybe out of central things are more lax
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The storage temperatures for these mean a lot of countries wont be using the mRNA vaccines. I dont think India has the infrastructure to transport and store them at the needed temperature.
China and Russia are doing their own thing too.. so 750m wont cover everyone who needs this.. but it'll be a decent chunk... Moderna will have one too.
I can imagine that being true. Larger police presence there too. It’s a pretty guff part of London though. With retail closed you’re not going to have many people pulled from their suburb to go there.
Deptford, Greenwich, Hackney, Dalston, Brixton are all mobbed with people. This seen from Friday through to today.
No idea why. The plan has always been to use both early next year. The Oxford one may even be one dose and doesn’t require the storage difficulties the Pfizer one does. If I was into stocks I’d be getting on that...
November carrying 2020.
That graph is Zoom shares.
Oh right! I thought it was AZ as in AstraZeneca
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So did I at first!Oh right! I thought it was AZ as in AstraZeneca
Doesnt Pfizer plan on using temperature controlled boxes to overcome the lack of a cold chain in developing nations?
Very good news and potentially great news for mRNA vaccines as a novel technology too
But I want to read a full study or report, annoyed that an announcement of this magnitude had a brief press release
But going by the press release
-43,538 participants so far, 38,955 have received a second dose, trial started on july 27th
-total of 164 confirmed COVID-19 cases have accrued since then (?presumably 90% in the placebo or just one vaccine arm but no breakdown of this)
-still analysing to see if prevents against severe covid disease
-data going to be submitted for scientific peer-review publication but no timeframe mentioned
Efficacy of more than 90% to be honest would be pretty extraordinary if true
But I want to read a full study or report, annoyed that an announcement of this magnitude had a brief press release
But going by the press release
-43,538 participants so far, 38,955 have received a second dose, trial started on july 27th
-total of 164 confirmed COVID-19 cases have accrued since then (?presumably 90% in the placebo or just one vaccine arm but no breakdown of this)
-still analysing to see if prevents against severe covid disease
-data going to be submitted for scientific peer-review publication but no timeframe mentioned
Efficacy of more than 90% to be honest would be pretty extraordinary if true
I said this a week ago by the way. My wife is involved in helping the storage of the vaccines too - she mentioned at the time they are to be stored at liquid nitrogen levels or something, so it's creating an issue for storage at GP practices. Hospitals are working on storing on their side and delivering but they need to be used within 5 days of delivery.
Nope. 94. They are waiting for 164 to get enough data to submit for an EUA I think
I didn't know that. would be great if they could find a way.. especially if this works considerably better than the more traditional vaccines.
Last I read (a couple of months back), it was basically saying India would be waiting for the traditional vaccine and not the mRNA ones .
Nice news for a change.
But question from an utter dimwit...
If it's got a 90% success rate, that would still mean 10% are still vulnerable to the disease. Now, this may be an unfounded assumption, but surely those 10% who are still vulnerable to the disease post-vaccine are likely to be those who suffer the worst from Covid?
Going off the assumption that ~1.5-2% (?) of people with Covid actually require medical care when suffering from the disease in a world where a vaccine isn't available, does this vaccine merely protect those against the disease who didn't really require protection to begin with? Also, that 10% could still see hospitals/healthcare infrastructure hugely overwhelmed during a strong surge of cases.
Given the whole point of lockdown is to avoid overwhelming key infrastructure services, does a vaccine with a 90% success rate do that?
Again, I cannot emphasise enough how little I know about this, so any input one way or another would be appreciated!
But question from an utter dimwit...
If it's got a 90% success rate, that would still mean 10% are still vulnerable to the disease. Now, this may be an unfounded assumption, but surely those 10% who are still vulnerable to the disease post-vaccine are likely to be those who suffer the worst from Covid?
Going off the assumption that ~1.5-2% (?) of people with Covid actually require medical care when suffering from the disease in a world where a vaccine isn't available, does this vaccine merely protect those against the disease who didn't really require protection to begin with? Also, that 10% could still see hospitals/healthcare infrastructure hugely overwhelmed during a strong surge of cases.
Given the whole point of lockdown is to avoid overwhelming key infrastructure services, does a vaccine with a 90% success rate do that?
Again, I cannot emphasise enough how little I know about this, so any input one way or another would be appreciated!
"However there are logistical challenges, as the vaccine has to be kept in ultra-cold storage at below minus 80C"
I don't think we'll be seeing this in your commercial pharmacies any time soon. But I reckon at least another couple of the candidates will get approved by the end of the year, so this will be massive
I don't think we'll be seeing this in your commercial pharmacies any time soon. But I reckon at least another couple of the candidates will get approved by the end of the year, so this will be massive
Stats always melt my head but that does seem like a very low number of events so you’d wonder about the statistical significance of their findings. Next data cut will be important
With any vaccine you expect there to not be total 100% immunity due to various factors like age, g3netics etc. But the main idea is that if it protects enough people so that transmission rates in the community go down, it is very unlikely for those in whom the vaccine doesn't work to catch the disease, simply because there is now an acquired herd immunity to stop transmission.
Sure, ideally a vaccine would protect everyone, but, especially for this virus which has an R rate of around 2-3, having 60-70% immunity should be enough to put the brakes on this pandemic. The challenge now is getting it to everyone as quickly and efficiently as possible.
There’s actually a good chance the opposite is the case. The vaccine might give partial protection to some people, so they catch the virus but don’t get very sick. We won’t know until they release all the data on those 94 cases and the individual outcomes.
So will this vaccine be shared to get it rolled out quicker or is this one of those "We are the saviours so we want the money" deal?
How can long term effects be known when it is such a new development?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ws...vaccination-distribution-campaign-11603272614
These boxes come with their own set of logistic problems, but could be a way for India to get at least some frontline workers vaccinated.
Indeed that's my concern too, depends of where those tests were, I'd be more convinced if they tested it in a place thats a hotbed for covid community transmissions with higher covid incidences in the placebo group than what's reported to be more certain
I think given what's at stake, essentially were're going to be having phase IV post-marketing surveillance as a pseudo-phase III in terms of efficacy
The only thing big pharma and governments were worried about is whether its safe and more than somewhat effective to roll out
Not ideal given the first lot of vaccination patients will be the elderly/vulnerable and you want to get it right for them which means studying phase for a lot longer period than what has been done with more robust data.
The World Health Organization special envoy person was worried about behavioural changes in response to this news and what that means for acute rise in transmissions.
Trump is going to flip
«THEY WERE SITTING ON THIS UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTION! VERY BAD!»
Even if they file for an EUA by end of Nov, they wont get approval this year.. so they better have some huge storage facilities for those if they are ramping up production right now.
Since you seem to know a bit about this - what are the chances of this being available in India? Is it a no-go even in the metros?
If you're healthy, under 50 and not a frontline worker its unlikely you'll get vaccinated in 2021.
I really don't know much.. Seen a few interviews on the JAMA(The Journal of the American Medical Association) youtube channel .. One was with someone on the panel which will be advising the FDA about the vaccines and he was talking about the process.. said the FDA wont give out a licence anytime soon.. need long term data.. so anything that'll be approved will now will get an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA).
Said the process of reviewing an application takes about a couple of months.. The Pfizer press release says they expect to have data from 164 cases by the 3rd week of Nov after which they'll file for an EUA. So its unlikely that they get approval this year.
About India.. everything so far suggests we have our eggs in the Oxford vaccine basket.. which should have their data soon too.. Haven't heard anything about us getting the mRNA ones.. (pfizer or Moderna).
Don't think we have any deal in place either.. so even if we change our minds and work towards setting up some supply chain in the big cities, dont expect us to get a shipment anytime soon..
But again.. I have no information.. just nothing I have read so far suggests its happening.
Does anyone know how prevalent ‘hospital acquired’ COVID is now, please?
I have an op scheduled in 2 weeks time with ELHT.
I’m over 60 with a couple of underlying health conditions, which are controlled with meds. I’m just wondering if I should cancel?
I have an op scheduled in 2 weeks time with ELHT.
I’m over 60 with a couple of underlying health conditions, which are controlled with meds. I’m just wondering if I should cancel?