SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Pogue Mahone

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Has anyone lost their smell through it at all?

Since last night, my smell has faded a lot. I can’t smell much. Only when I get REALLY close to something. Like if my nose is touching it

But for the virus, it would be a complete loss of smell wouldn’t it?
Unless you’ve got some other very obvious reason for this (e.g. a snotty, bunged up nose) you should definitely get tested.
 

11101

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Has anyone lost their smell through it at all?

Since last night, my smell has faded a lot. I can’t smell much. Only when I get REALLY close to something. Like if my nose is touching it

But for the virus, it would be a complete loss of smell wouldn’t it?
No, i have friends with the virus who had a reduction in taste and smell, not a complete loss. I would get tested if i were you.
 

LawCharltonBest

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Unless you’ve got some other very obvious reason for this (e.g. a snotty, bunged up nose) you should definitely get tested.
No, i have friends with the virus who had a reduction in taste and smell, not a complete loss. I would get tested if i were you.
Ah shit. Shows how ignorant i am to all this. Thanks both.

No cold symptoms or blocked nose. Not gone out a lot because i work from home now, and I always wear my mask, so hopefully haven't affected anyone else if i have it.
 

Andy_Cole

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Has anyone lost their smell through it at all?

Since last night, my smell has faded a lot. I can’t smell much. Only when I get REALLY close to something. Like if my nose is touching it

But for the virus, it would be a complete loss of smell wouldn’t it?
Sounds like you have it pal. That’s from my own experience. Get tested and isolate.
 

Pogue Mahone

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And with a daily positivity rate of above 10%, or a 7-day average of 8.7%, worse than at any point since May. It's double the rate of last month, and back in May they were testing 4x fewer people. The hospitalisation rate has now reached its highest on record too: 67k current hospitalised, and it's gone up by almost 1k every day this month. They plateaued at around 60k in the first and second peaks but this one just seems to be marching on up.

Could be the first country to get back to its death total peaks from the 1st wave, while hospitalising many, many more in the process. But then Italy doesn't seem far off that either: their positivity rate is at 25% and daily cases exploded from 4k to 30k in October. It'll be great to get 2020 over with but it'll be a bizarre way to start 2021, possibly in a worse position than ever across big chunks of the world.
It will definitely be a terrible way to start next year. But not all that bizarre. Arguably completely predictable. The winter wave was always likely to hit the northern hemisphere worse than the initial surge.



One of the many shitty things about covid is that it’s incubation period is many multiples longer than influenza so these waves will be much broader in shape. It might even be possible we’re still experiencing the first wave.
 

lynchie

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Some data lag in the reporting but nothing that would suggest a massive glitch. Could be a mini spike right on the cusp of the lockdown.
I'm trying to understand the UK data, and it seems a bit illogical. The "tests conducted" numbers are at a minimum on the last couple of Mondays, but the positive cases by specimen date show big spikes on Mondays. So doing less tests, but finding more cases, specifically on Mondays? Weird.

This Monday's spike in the "by specimen date" cases is currently a fair bit lower than last Monday, so the big jump in cases reported might just be a case of bad timing for a batch of results coming in. Will have to see what it looks like in when they report today.
 

Rado_N

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Could it be related to the mass street celebrations from the election? As well as protests etc
Too soon for that, and the vast vast majority of those celebrating were wearing masks. Protests haven’t been shown to lead to spikes previously have they? I thought outdoor transmission was highly unlikely?
 

LARulz

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Is it not cos there are more tests being done?(sorry, I don't have the figures, just assuming)

Weren't they doing mass testing in some cities also my work place are doing those 'instant' tests where you find out if you currently have it and get the results in an hour or so. I imagine there are many other places doing that which add up. We can do these tests as often as we like, those of us that do it, have it once a week or so so we can feel better about seeing family
 

Pogue Mahone

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Too soon for that, and the vast vast majority of those celebrating were wearing masks. Protests haven’t been shown to lead to spikes previously have they? I thought outdoor transmission was highly unlikely?
Average incubation period is 5-6 days. Allow another day or or to get tested and another to get the result and today’s figures probably do fall slap bang in the middle of election hysteria. It’s true that outdoor gatherings not usually a significant risk but you’d have to wonder how much partying went on indoors at the same time. The BLM protests didn’t have the same celebratory element, so you won’t have had people drinking beers and hanging out in each other’s houses (or going to bars, in states where they were open).
 

Rado_N

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Average incubation period is 5-6 days. Allow another day or or to get tested and another to get the result and today’s figures probably do fall slap bang in the middle of election hysteria. It’s true that outdoor gatherings not usually a significant risk but you’d have to wonder how much partying went on indoors at the same time. The BLM protests didn’t have the same celebratory element, so you won’t have had people drinking beers and hanging out in each other’s houses (or going to bars, in states where they were open).
The celebrations came after it was called on Saturday which would only give 5 days to yesterday’s numbers, unless you mean the neckbeards chanting to stop/continue the count?

The indoor celebrations etc would almost certainly be too soon, no?
 

Pogue Mahone

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The celebrations came after it was called on Saturday which would only give 5 days to yesterday’s numbers, unless you mean the neckbeards chanting to stop/continue the count?

The indoor celebrations etc would almost certainly be too soon, no?
Jaysus. Didn’t think it took that long to call. Was working off Nov 2nd date. Might the celebrations have started early? It was obvious Drumpf was on his way out long before last Saturday.
 

Rado_N

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Jaysus. Didn’t think it took that long to call. Was working off Nov 2nd date. Might the celebrations have started early? It was obvious Drumpf was on his way out long before last Saturday.
Arizona only got confirmed last night!

Things were looking good from around Thursday if I remember right, but it was only once the networks called PA that people really went crazy and the celebrations broke out.
 

F-Red

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I'm trying to understand the UK data, and it seems a bit illogical. The "tests conducted" numbers are at a minimum on the last couple of Mondays, but the positive cases by specimen date show big spikes on Mondays. So doing less tests, but finding more cases, specifically on Mondays? Weird.

This Monday's spike in the "by specimen date" cases is currently a fair bit lower than last Monday, so the big jump in cases reported might just be a case of bad timing for a batch of results coming in. Will have to see what it looks like in when they report today.
There's a natural lag in data over the weekend. So tests conducted number reported on Monday is actually probably 70-80% of tests done on Friday, Saturday & Sunday (on the basis of a 2.5-2.9 day turnaround on testing). I find it's difficult to judge current position on those days.

As an example, for this Monday's data, the breakdown of positive cases in England was as follows:

377 were from tests taken Sunday (2%)
9,712 from Saturday (51%)
7,125 from Friday (37%)
1,503 from Thursday (8%)
222 from Wednesday (1%)
48 from Tuesday
36 last Monday

I would probably look at week totals to get a better perspective, as the numbers average out better across the week than at certain days.
 

Andy_Cole

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Just got a call from NHS:

Last day of isolation, I can go home tomorrow. Don't get retested as I can stay positive for up to 6 weeks. But after 10 days I won't be contagious.

Interesting to hear that as I've not heard that before. Anyway I'll be taking their advice and end my isolation.
 
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Brwned

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Is it not cos there are more tests being done?(sorry, I don't have the figures, just assuming)

Weren't they doing mass testing in some cities also my work place are doing those 'instant' tests where you find out if you currently have it and get the results in an hour or so. I imagine there are many other places doing that which add up. We can do these tests as often as we like, those of us that do it, have it once a week or so so we can feel better about seeing family
No it can't be because of an increasing testing numbers unfortunately. If the number of cases were going up while the % of cases that come back positive were going down, then we would know it was because we were just reaching out to more people. But in most countries experiencing a spike the positivity rate is going up, so we're missing more cases than we were previously.

If the default positivity rate is about 2%, as per the ONS' figures, then the fact we're seeing a 10% positivity rate suggests for every 1 case we find, we miss 4. That is partly down to the strategy because in the UK you can only request a test if you have symptoms, and we think around 1 in 5 have symptoms.

So the important thing to focus on is the trend, and if we're not seeing the positivity rate going down, then the increase in positive tests can't be explained by the increase in tests administered. We saw the rate drop considerably in most countries during the summer, so we now that theory works out in practice too, we're just not seeing that here.
 

Dancfc

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Just got a call from NHS:

Last day of isolation, I can go home tomorrow. Don't get retested as I can stay positive for up to 6 weeks. But after 10 days I won't be contagious.

Interesting to hear that as I've not heard that before. Anyway I'll be taking there advice and end my isolation.
Yeah there was a bit of controversy around some young lads in Florence who were stuck in quarentine for months because they kept testing positive and Italy's rules were you had to have two negative tests before ending isolation.
 

Sparky_Hughes

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Just got a call from NHS:

Last day of isolation, I can go home tomorrow. Don't get retested as I can stay positive for up to 6 weeks. But after 10 days I won't be contagious.

Interesting to hear that as I've not heard that before. Anyway I'll be taking there advice and end my isolation.
Good news mate. Congrats
 

jackal&hyde

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I’m not entirely sure what your point is but literally everything you’ve written there is wrong. Especially the last sentence. First two sentences are also wrong, mind you.
They are not wrong, they are ..

Today, I am making the list for the people that get the vaccine. You know, because it's reals.

EDIT: this is a list many people have had to do, many on this here forum
 

Penna

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Cases still rising in Italy and our region has been moved up into the orange group, which means we can't leave the village now. It's back to how we were in the first wave. Oh well, we'll sit tight (again).
 

groovyalbert

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Cases still rising in Italy and our region has been moved up into the orange group, which means we can't leave the village now. It's back to how we were in the first wave. Oh well, we'll sit tight (again).
Good luck - stay safe!
 

golden_blunder

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They are not wrong, they are ..

Today, I am making the list for the people that get the vaccine. You know, because it's reals.

EDIT: this is a list many people have had to do, many on this here forum
I honestly don’t understand what you’re saying in this post
 

Pogue Mahone

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Interesting article just published in Nature on Danish mink mutations.

tl;dr. Most problematic mutation re potential vaccine resistance seems to be “dead end” as very few mink/people infected. Mink farms in general a big problem. They act as a reservoir of virus, with large localised outbreaks associated with them and increase potential for virus mutations. Not sure how virus spread from human to mink and back but virus has been isolated from houseflies and a seagull’s foot!
 

Wibble

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Australia has now gone a week without a case of community transmission and Victoria over 2 weeks. The plan is to have all states open by Christmas. Fingers crossed as I suspect there are a few undiagnosed cases about still.
 

11101

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Apart from waiting 4-6 weeks too long with the measures.
I think PM Conte will find that out to his chagrin in the next election. He had masses of goodwill after last time, now all gone. He's been flip flopping between various interest groups far too much, especially the education minister.


People in Naples are out protesting in the streets again, on the same day pictures come out of their hospitals giving people oxygen in the car park because there's no more room inside :houllier: My province is regularly posting 1000+ cases a day now but at least we have the hospitals to cope so far.

I agree with that - we all should have been red zones from the beginning.
According to the news we soon will be.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Could you paraphrase what it says as it's asking for registration?
Can you give us a rundown on why as you need to sign up to read it
Tricky to summarise but apparently one of the big medical journals published a small study proving that masks don’t reduce the oxygen in your blood. The linked article was a physician saying that studies like that do more harm than good. They’re based on a small number of subjects and the people whose minds are made up about masks will easily find ways to criticise the findings (why didn’t they look at CO2, as well as O2? etc) So publishing weak data, with an obvious agenda just makes people more distrustful of science in general.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Here’s the conclusion.

Restoring Faith in Masks and Science
Medical leaders must embrace uncertainty, and medical journals should steer clear of any perception of dualities of interest. Impartiality is a must. Journal editors must not be perceived as favoring certain findings.


As for masks, if we want people to wear masks, and we do, the answer is not to promote flawe science. It is to use the tools of any good doctor: humility, empathy, and common sense.

The humility to tell people we don't know—exactly—how much masks slow the spread of the virus.

The empathy to say that we know that masks take away a lot of what makes us human.

The common sense to say that masks are not dangerous, and, because mask-wearing probably helps reduce viral spread, and it isn't forever, please, wear a mask—especially in confined indoor spaces.