SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Anustart89

Full Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2013
Messages
15,912
Is this because we're better at handling the virus in it's earlier stages of symptomatic of something else?
Feels more like it behaves differently this time around, because we're seeing this both in patients who are treated in-hospital who end up admitted to the ICU and patients who come in from their home and need admitting into the ICU right away.

We're doing some things better this time around though, mainly in terms of anticoagulation and consistent proning of patients.
 

Hernandez - BFA

The Way to Fly
Joined
Jan 5, 2011
Messages
17,291
I must admit I was thinking of using them the opposite way round - to start pulling (some of) the positive ones away from mixed/non-covid areas into covid streams. Interesting to read how that admissions process is being handled, thanks for taking the time to explain what's happening.
They definitely shouldn’t be used to rule out covid but couldn’t they be used to screen for and isolate the really infectious cases a little bit quicker? Could maybe do a quick screening test for every patient (and relative!) at the door of A&E, with results available by the time they hit triage. Obviously any cases with any kind of clinical suspicion would need a negative PCR before you rule out covid.
I see what you mean. To be honest, even the rapid tests take ~2 hours or so (at least that’s the quickest that I’m aware of). Still a long time to wait before triage.

Fair points though - could very well be onto something.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,351
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
A lot of people like this journalist from the Daily Mail seem confused as to how they're getting the virus, also about the rules they're breaking...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...oment-got-infected-Covid.html#article-9046351

Now I know the Daily Mail reporters aren't the brightest but is she openly admitting to breaking Covid rules by not isolating?
Journalists aside, I’m constantly shocked by how few people can get their heads around an incubation period. Her and her kid tested negative because they were tested too soon. They almost certainly had the same dose as her ex, just took a few more days for their viral load to increase to a level where they would get a positive test. It’s incredible how seemingly smart people (and I’m including my friends in this) think a negative test means they’ve no virus in their system.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
88,611
Location
Centreback
As usual, it depends.

If the AstraZeneca vaccine manages to do a more convincing job with the data it's got and with whatever it can assemble over the next few weeks - it could get its emergency use approval and start rolling out before the end of January. They think they can ramp up production fast so we might see all the highest risk (over 70s, healthcare workers and the clinically extremely vulnerable) done by early Q2. If we're relying on Pfizer/Moderna it takes the whole of Q1/2 to get there, and that assumes Pfizer/Moderrna don't hit further production issues. Better than nothing, and a massive reduction in the death rates, but still not great.

The other possible gap fillers are Novavax and J&J - if their current Phase 3 trials show the right efficacy/safety. Both of those may be ready for emergency approval late Q1. In theory at least both of those could ramp up production quickly. If those are available then Q2 could see a real increase in availability - probably enough to cover all the NHS priority groups including the over 50s. If that happens then by summer Europe will be a much more normal place - not business as usual perhaps but close.

In other words - fingers crossed for AstraZeneca (revised report!), J&J and/or Novavax.

The BBC has done a nice article at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833 that includes things like the approximate number of people in each priority group.
Australia is still planning for a March start. They are hinting that this is because we are being more rigorous with the approvals process but I think it is likely that there is just no hurry as we ordered the Oxford and UQ vaccines first but were a bit late to the party for the other orders. My suspicion is that we won't get deliver of the Pfizer vaccine until Q1 - the only approved vaccine we have ordered. We have the ability to make 4m doses of the Oxford vaccine per month but that doesn't help until the issues with the data are resolved so as to allow approval.

The bottom line is that the Feds botched things yet again. Without the states acting with authority we would be awash with covid most likely.
 

Stanley Road

Renaissance Man
Joined
Feb 19, 2001
Messages
39,853
Location
Wrong Unstable Leadership
The high profile rule breakers in govmnt (Cummings, etc)
Yeah we had a high profile minister, Minister of Justice, get married during lockdown, had tons of guests, no social distancing and it was all on film. What Justice is that for us plebs? As usual with high profile rule breakers he apologized and that apparently makes it ok. These people need to be fired, if i break the rules at work then i certainly would be.
 

Tucholsky

Full Member
Joined
Jun 1, 2012
Messages
181
Location
Somewhere in Germany
Supports
VfB Stuttgart
Will people behave in Germany and respect restrictions or just ignore them like a lot in the UK ?
Yes I think they will. I think over the last weeks and months, too many Germans were too relaxed and the rules were handled rather lax (myself inluded).
I think the message has resounded. Monday and Thursday could be bad (before on Wednesday non-essentential shops close)
Then there will be nothing to do, aside from work and grocery shopping
And at least in my region, authorities seem intended to control the rules more sctrictly and visiblier. (was at my girlfriend over the weekend and she drove me home, she got over the 8pm curfew on the way home and the streets are empty and police are setting up checkpoints on major streets.
But right before 8pm, there was rather normal sunday evening traffic. So my guess many people were coming back from private visits and friends. Not good for the numbers in the next two weeks. Peak Covid deaths and numbers should hit Germay right between Christmas/New Years Day/First two weeks of 2021.
 
Last edited:

Eugenius

Full Member
Joined
May 10, 2009
Messages
3,929
Location
Behind You
A lot of people like this journalist from the Daily Mail seem confused as to how they're getting the virus, also about the rules they're breaking...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...oment-got-infected-Covid.html#article-9046351

Now I know the Daily Mail reporters aren't the brightest but is she openly admitting to breaking Covid rules by not isolating?
What a bunch of numpties. It's extremely obvious in all of those cases where they likely caught it - you know the badly ventilated indoor places where no one is wearing masks.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
88,611
Location
Centreback
A lot of people like this journalist from the Daily Mail seem confused as to how they're getting the virus, also about the rules they're breaking...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...oment-got-infected-Covid.html#article-9046351

Now I know the Daily Mail reporters aren't the brightest but is she openly admitting to breaking Covid rules by not isolating?
Father gets covid while looking after son. Days later sends kid to the mother. Mother and son later test positive for covid.

Sounds like a x-file to me.
 

giggs-beckham

Clueless
Joined
Sep 9, 2007
Messages
6,926
I don't think the second one really ended. I expected the numbers to come down a bit more than they did.
The case numbers were definitely on a downward curve. Now they are going up again. I only mention it because I thought there would be discussion about it on this brilliant thread. It looks like the fall was due to the lockdown and the rise is due to the end of the lockdown to me.
 

Brwned

Have you ever been in love before?
Joined
Apr 18, 2008
Messages
50,829
The case numbers were definitely on a downward curve. Now they are going up again. I only mention it because I thought there would be discussion about it on this brilliant thread. It looks like the fall was due to the lockdown and the rise is due to the end of the lockdown to me.
Yeah I don't think anyone doubted that cases would start to rise again after people went back out to the shops, pubs and started meeting up with mates in other homes. What we learned from the lockdown is the only way we could keep on top of things during winter was to keep them closed. During summer we could open them back up with people spending enough time outdoors, but going from one potential transmission hotspot onto another and then into someone's home just isn't manageable, along with people washing their hands less, making less effort to avoid crowds etc. At this rate it'd be very surprising if we're not in a much worse place in January than we were in November. I still think it's ludicrous we had to re-open shops pre-Christmas to "save them", when it's obvious that the usual 10% drop in sales post-Christmas combined with the virus restrictions will kill them off much quicker in January.
 
Last edited:

Smores

Full Member
Joined
May 18, 2011
Messages
25,496
Here in Essex the numbers have rocketed despite being really low pre-lockdown. Evidently people have just decided to ignore the rules throughout lockdown.

It's obvious on the weekends when we go for a long walk and see all the extra cars parked that people are just visiting each other anyway.
 

Dave_MUFC

Full Member
Joined
Jul 23, 2011
Messages
812
Location
Somewhere
Yeah I don't think anyone doubted that cases would start to rise again after people went back out to the shops, pubs and started meeting up with mates in other homes. What we learned from the lockdown is the only way we could keep on top of things during winter was to keep them closed. During summer we could open them back up with people spending enough time outdoors, but going from one potential transmission hotspot onto another and then into someone's home just isn't manageable, along with people washing their hands less, making less effort to avoid crowds etc. At this rate it'd be very surprising if we're not in a much worse place in January than we were in November. I still think it's ludicrous we had to re-open shops pre-Christmas to "save them", when it's obvious that the usual 10% drop in sales post-Christmas combined with the virus restrictions will kill them off much quicker in January.
This, plus keeping in mind places like London are tier 2, and with this weather, no chance in hell restaurants/bars are going to be having any windows or doors open for airflow. Hence why I think warmer countries are still faring better.
 

redshaw

Full Member
Joined
Jul 17, 2015
Messages
9,586
Cases have come down in the north and north west but have risen in London and south east of England and Wales. Inevitable numbers would be back up as it spreads around other regions. North west along with the always low south west are the two lowest regions now.
 

F-Red

Full Member
Joined
Nov 15, 2008
Messages
10,874
Location
Cheshire


London & South East look to be in a significant upwards trajectory, I don't know why they're not pushing them into tier 3 already.
 

Kasper

Full Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2013
Messages
3,579
Supports
Hansa Rostock / Bradford City
German posters - I saw news of anti-lockdown protests in Berlin and some other places. I know at least some of the groups involved were left-wing and some were basically the German branch of QAnon.
What is the political split of anti-lockdown people? And, is Berlin worse than other areas?
Last question first: Berlin is not worse than other areas, its probably slightly better. It`s just that because of public visibility everyone loves to move their demonstration to Berlin as pictures of demonstrators outside parliament are better for publicity than if they`re somewhere in the middle of nowhere in Saxony. So people are coming from all over Germany with buses to Berlin for the weekend and then feck off again. Also, big majority of national and international press is based in Berlin and coverage is therefore skewed.
I`d say the eastern German states are slightly "worse" when it comes to Corona and lockdown scepticism because right-wing anti mainstream attitude is proportional bigger (the right wing AfD scores highest in these rural states) and also because scepticism of the state and government is (understandably) historically bigger due to the GDRs legacy. A third aspect could be the slow emergence of German "Bible Belts" around Saxony and the Stuttgart region where strong conservative traditionalism meets evangelicanism in a mix of rejecting anything about "modernity". The last decade has offered plenty of demonstration opportunities (Pegida, Stuttgart 21, now Corona) to strengthen their ressources and structures.

As for the political split: I wouldn`t read much into the "left wing" aspects of some demonstrating groups. No left wing party, no bigger activists and no leftist street movement (e.g. Antifa) is involved in the protests. The reason why some is branded as leftist is due to a big emergence of esoteric "Spread love" gibberish that many identify with (Nena the singer as the most famous of these conspiracy fans) who wave rainbow and peace flags at these demonstrations and some anti-globalist branches who have been around for a while and are often mistaken as leftist because they tick a few boxes (anti American imperialism, anti big corporations) but are riddled with xenophobic, antisemitic, islamophobic people.
 

Ananke

Full Member
Joined
Feb 26, 2014
Messages
1,431
Location
Manchester


London & South East look to be in a significant upwards trajectory, I don't know why they're not pushing them into tier 3 already.
It's not that surprising anymore. London gets special treatment and whenever someone says it, it's 'no no that's not true because XYZ'. I was watching BBC news last night, the rates in Trafford (where I am currently residing) are down to something like 80 in 100k and we're in Tier 3. Yet there's areas around London that are hitting numbers of 300+ per 100k yet still in Tier 2.

Apparently the government are looking at rolling out mass testing in London like they did in Liverpool to try avoid putting London in Tier 3?
 

Rado_N

Yaaas Broncos!
Joined
Apr 6, 2009
Messages
110,913
Location
Manchester
It's not that surprising anymore. London gets special treatment and whenever someone says it, it's 'no no that's not true because XYZ'. I was watching BBC news last night, the rates in Trafford (where I am currently residing) are down to something like 80 in 100k and we're in Tier 3. Yet there's areas around London that are hitting numbers of 300+ per 100k yet still in Tier 2.

Apparently the government are looking at rolling out mass testing in London like they did in Liverpool to try avoid putting London in Tier 3?
I’m not saying London shouldn’t be bumped up to T3 because it definitely seems it should, but reducing the tier in Trafford (or elsewhere in Gt Manchester) might not be possible due to hospital bed availability, or rather the lack thereof.

Our transmission numbers could be the lowest in the country but if there’s zero ICU availability they’re going to keep us in a higher tier.

Not saying that definitely is the case, but infectious rates are only part of the story from my understanding.
 

Ananke

Full Member
Joined
Feb 26, 2014
Messages
1,431
Location
Manchester
I’m not saying London shouldn’t be bumped up to T3 because it definitely seems it should, but reducing the tier in Trafford (or elsewhere in Gt Manchester) might not be possible due to hospital bed availability, or rather the lack thereof.

Our transmission numbers could be the lowest in the country but if there’s zero ICU availability they’re going to keep us in a higher tier.

Not saying that definitely is the case, but infectious rates are only part of the story from my understanding.
Oh I'm not saying we should come out of Tier 3 =] It's more about the system being balanced, the same rules applying for all.
 

Rado_N

Yaaas Broncos!
Joined
Apr 6, 2009
Messages
110,913
Location
Manchester
Oh I'm not saying we should come out of Tier 3 =] It's more about the system being balanced, the same rules applying for all.
It’ll all be for shit soon anyway when everybody goes entirely rogue over Christmas and numbers rocket in January.
 

Stactix

Full Member
Joined
Nov 3, 2015
Messages
1,788
Oh I'm not saying we should come out of Tier 3 =] It's more about the system being balanced, the same rules applying for all.
From the off there were places within London that should of been in tier 3 if comparing it with other areas.

Stratford one of the lowest in the country was tier 1 as Warwickshire were and yet that area as a whole wasn't much worse off than many places in London if you looked at the chart.
 

Dante

Average bang
Joined
Oct 22, 2010
Messages
25,280
Location
My wit's end
London needs to go to tier 3 for Christmas. And then bring Manchester down to tier 2 or maybe even tier 1.

Feck Boris for using Manchester as a political football the last few months. I hope he enjoys his Christmas without all of his mistresses.
 

shamans

Thinks you can get an STD from flirting.
Joined
Oct 25, 2010
Messages
18,226
Location
Constantly at the STD clinic.
Gonna have buy dog food online ffs
I always get it online. No point carrying a big bag around.

Regarding covid, I think most people think the "intense" days are done and many are roaming around freely. Crazy because the virus is rampant right now.

Just hope the vaccine speeds up as fast as possible. I'm in Netherlands right now and hope I don't get stranded here.
 

SiRed

New Member
Joined
May 27, 2013
Messages
2,748
Location
Manchester
London needs to go to tier 3 for Christmas. And then bring Manchester down to tier 2 or maybe even tier 1.

Feck Boris for using Manchester as a political football the last few months. I hope he enjoys his Christmas without all of his mistresses.
I Must admit, i am having a good chuckle to myself with the news of London going tier 3. I think its brilliant as we are likely to go tier 2 on Wednesday. Reminds me 1994 when a school bully went to headbutt someone, missed and fell down a flight of stairs..... Fantastic
 

swooshboy

Band of Brothers
Joined
Aug 3, 2004
Messages
10,725
Location
London
I Must admit, i am having a good chuckle to myself with the news of London going tier 3. I think its brilliant as we are likely to go tier 2 on Wednesday. Reminds me 1994 when a school bully went to headbutt someone, missed and fell down a flight of stairs..... Fantastic
Yes, because the people who live and work in London are all that one Bully.

No idea why you want to take pleasure at a part of the country going into stricter measures?