SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Pexbo

Winner of the 'I'm not reading that' medal.
Joined
Jun 2, 2009
Messages
68,692
Location
Brizzle
Supports
Big Days
Tug end hat.

I have a theory that every single Tory was bullied at school and there’s plenty of circumstantial evidence suggesting nay, proving, I am right.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
88,995
Location
Centreback
Central Brisbane yesterday.




3 day lockdown while we contract trace all the contacts of the quarantine hotel worker who was infected with the new UK variant. 175 contacts have been traced and 112 tested negative so far with the rest waiting on results.

The NSW outbreak seems in its final stage with only 3 new cases - all close contacts of known infections.
 
Last edited:

gormless

Full Member
Joined
Jun 25, 2008
Messages
8,541
Location
comfortable and settled in my rut
Central Brisbane yesterday.


I’m not sure how people manage to live in Brisbane. I was there last year (I actually posted on pg 1 of this thread expressing reservations at flying through Taiwan on the way there) and it just the most brutally humid place I have ever been. The city doesn’t really compare with other Aussie cities either
 

Fingeredmouse

Full Member
Joined
Aug 10, 2014
Messages
5,641
Location
Glasgow
It is when its comparing 2 sets of data. that graph is intended to highlight how much worse it is compared to previous years and not having it start at zero clearly skews the perspective.
I didn't find it skewed. What benefit would a wee gap at the bottom make? Each data set runs against the same axis (if we're talking about the same graph) and all years remain visible. I don't see the issue.

As an aside, I'm a professional analyst and often compare data sets on axes that don't start at 0, so I imagine I'd do your head in.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
88,995
Location
Centreback
I’m not sure how people manage to live in Brisbane. I was there last year (I actually posted on pg 1 of this thread expressing reservations at flying through Taiwan on the way there) and it just the most brutally humid place I have ever been. The city doesn’t really compare with other Aussie cities either
Brisbane isn't anywhere near as hot or humid as further North on average. I lived in Townsville for nearly a decade and there are only a couple of months where it is too hot/humidity and 4 then you live in air-conditioning and a pool is great to have.

That said I don't like Brisbane. It is the AU capital city I'd least like to live in. Possibly tied with Darwin.
 
Last edited:

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
88,995
Location
Centreback
I didn't find it skewed. What benefit would a wee gap at the bottom make? Each data set runs against the same axis (if we're talking about the same graph) and all years remain visible. I don't see the issue.

As an aside, I'm a professional analyst and often compare data sets on axes that don't start at 0, so I imagine I'd do your head in.
Starting at 0 can make the data much harder to read.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
88,995
Location
Centreback
Something vaguely covid related that made me smile this morning. My son is at Uni in the US and his sports team are about to start a shortened and delayed season. As part of that they have to live within a team bubble and get a covid test weekly. He sent us the results this morning which were "mostly good news" the cheeky fecker.

 

Stack

Leave Women's Football Alone!!!
Joined
Sep 6, 2006
Messages
13,331
Location
Auckland New Zealand
Something vaguely covid related that made me smile this morning. My son is at Uni in the US and his sports team are about to start a shortened and delayed season. As part of that they have to live within a team bubble and get a covid test weekly. He sent us the results this morning which were "mostly good news" the cheeky fecker.

Ha!!
 

Sparky Rhiwabon

New Member
Joined
Jul 10, 2013
Messages
16,946
Something vaguely covid related that made me smile this morning. My son is at Uni in the US and his sports team are about to start a shortened and delayed season. As part of that they have to live within a team bubble and get a covid test weekly. He sent us the results this morning which were "mostly good news" the cheeky fecker.

Your son testing HIV positive made you smile?
 

rcoobc

Not as crap as eferyone thinks
Joined
Jul 28, 2010
Messages
41,701
Location
C-137
Something vaguely covid related that made me smile this morning. My son is at Uni in the US and his sports team are about to start a shortened and delayed season. As part of that they have to live within a team bubble and get a covid test weekly. He sent us the results this morning which were "mostly good news" the cheeky fecker.

Was that a joke from him? Or is he actually HIV positive?
 

rcoobc

Not as crap as eferyone thinks
Joined
Jul 28, 2010
Messages
41,701
Location
C-137
1. From what I have read. It worries me that that the whole government covid strategy for the past year has been based off this PCR test when the test itself is ran to such a high cycle threshold that it can detect dead fragments of the virus. Thus, we don't know the true case numbers. Happy to be corrected if I'm wrong.
So, one of my work colleagues had the virus. Had symptoms, took a test, self isolated. Stopped having symptoms after a week. All is good.

But like the majority of the idiots in this country he doesn't have a clue about the rules and decided to take a test after the isolation period was up. And of course he came back positive.

He was then contacted by track and trace and was outright told "you didn't need to take a test, you had no reason to so that, but now you have tested positive you have to self isolate for another 10 days."

He's self employed so hopefully that will cost him some.

I think you are worrying over nothing Wilford.you are only meant to take a test *when you have symptoms* (or in other specific situations).

Not when you come into contact with someone with the virus.

Not when a family member gets the virus.

Not when you want to go back to work.

If you have symptoms and you test positive that's two pieces of evidence you have the virus, not just one.

The far far far bigger problem is no one understands the rules
 

prateik

Full Member
Joined
Dec 14, 2005
Messages
42,182
Also, unless I'm getting it wrong, even if the PCR tests are sensitive enough to detect dead fragments, it'll affect how people react/isolate after the result.. it can result in people isolating/going through some unnecessary stress and others getting contact notifications .. but it wont artificially inflate the case numbers. .

If you test positive, you almost certainly have it or have had it in the very recent past.

So I dont think the PCR tests detecting dead fragments hides the true case numbers. If you dont have symptoms, you are still not going to the hospital .
 

rcoobc

Not as crap as eferyone thinks
Joined
Jul 28, 2010
Messages
41,701
Location
C-137
So...

I ask the caf.

I it not time the UK Government update their symptoms list

Should not anyone who has a cough/cold/snotty nose/gastric issue have to stay home and book a test now?

It seems ridiculous that they are only looking for a "new continuous cough," a "loss of taste and smell," or a high temperature.

Someone at work had a "head cold" and tested positive on an asymptomatic test
 

jojojo

JoJoJoJoJoJoJo
Staff
Joined
Aug 18, 2007
Messages
38,285
Location
Welcome to Manchester reception committee
So...

I ask the caf.

I it not time the UK Government update their symptoms list

Should not anyone who has a cough/cold/snotty nose/gastric issue have to stay home and book a test now?

It seems ridiculous that they are only looking for a "new continuous cough," a "loss of taste and smell," or a high temperature.

Someone at work had a "head cold" and tested positive on an asymptomatic test
I do think the symptoms list needs updating. The number of people who now report - headache, and then headcold, loss of appetite/gastric upset as their main symptoms is increasing.

I do wonder how much of this new mutation's extra spreading capability might come down to the symptoms changing rather than its transmissibility as such.

That said - the testing system is already under massive strain so I doubt it can handle everyone who has a cold as well.
 

rcoobc

Not as crap as eferyone thinks
Joined
Jul 28, 2010
Messages
41,701
Location
C-137
I do think the symptoms list needs updating. The number of people who now report - headache, and then headcold, loss of appetite/gastric upset as their main symptoms is increasing.

I do wonder how much of this new mutation's extra spreading capability might come down to the symptoms changing rather than its transmissibility as such.

That said - the testing system is already under massive strain so I doubt it can handle everyone who has a cold as well.
But we have these rapid tests! Rapid tests that work on people with symptoms but basically do not work on the asymptomatic

One can come up with one's own system of using PCR and lateral flow but I don't think there is anyway we should be letting people with symptoms other than the"three" walk about at this point
 

jojojo

JoJoJoJoJoJoJo
Staff
Joined
Aug 18, 2007
Messages
38,285
Location
Welcome to Manchester reception committee
But we have these rapid tests! Rapid tests that work on people with symptoms but basically do not work on the asymptomatic

One can come up with one's own system of using PCR and lateral flow but I don't think there is anyway we should be letting people with symptoms other than the"three" walk about at this point
Arguably though - that's the point of a lockdown. You're not just walking about.

Testing people with the rapid tests who are going into work - with/without symptoms is maybe viable. I don't know how many of those tests they have - but if they can get them into factories, warehouses etc then most larger employers (even if they just have a qualified first aider, or safety officer on site) could be instructed to use them.
 

Toad

Full Member
Joined
May 11, 2013
Messages
3,664
Location
England
Has anyone got any statistics on how many total fatalities per age group in the UK.
 

Ecstatic

Cutie patootie!
Joined
Nov 26, 2015
Messages
13,787
Supports
PsG
The question is to what level you're willing to impinge of people's liberties and how much safer would that make them. On the one extreme you have people that would be happy for the government to pass laws preventing people from leaving their house, enforcing it with the military and imprisoning people for failing to comply (China effectively). On the other extreme you have people who don't believe the virus exists at all. As is often the case both extremes scare the shit out of me.

It would be interesting to see what level of safety differing people would be willing to give up their freedoms to achieve. Would some people accept annual restrictions to reduce the yearly NHS crises? Whilst not comparable to covid excess deaths in England/Wales in the Winter of 2017/2018 were estimated at 50,100. Should we have locked down back then in hindsight? Should we have to wear masks every Winter?

My view in that scenario would be no. I would not "give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety". Although my response was the same to the swath of restrictions brought under the guise of protecting us from terrorism.

In terms of the Covid response I think it's been all over the place. I think restrictions have been made based on zero data that are likely to have actually worsened the problem (e.g. 10pm curfew). I think that restrictions have been brought in without thought as to compliance which again would have worsened the problem, meaning a lighter restriction would counter-intuitively see greater compliance and reduced spread (e.g. plunging London into tier four on 19th, causing thousands of people to flee, spreading the new strain across the country). I think that some restrictions have been placed where the social/economic cost is far worse than the benefit (e.g. closing Covid secure hospitality venues and forcing people to drink together in their homes). We're also applying the same rules to differing categories of risk which to me is inane. My risk profile (having not been within 2 metres of anyone 70+ since March) is completely different to a care home worker and yet we're treated equally. For me that means cracking a pistachio with a sledge hammer; for them the rules may well have been too lax throughout.
Your reasoning may be confusing for some because you raise two very different points:
- The first one is about the level of individual liberties that should be sacrificed
- The other one is about the consistency of public policies

Covid 19 could have been managed and solved in different ways and, the worst way has been adopted.
Its the transparency of the whole saga which has been most worrying for me. People with legitimate concerns over the the flaws in the PCR test, the constant lockdowns or the efficacy of the vaccine seemed to be have been grouped into the "Covidiots" total hoax/anti vax group without a fair hearing. The government response to the crisis has been shameful and their lack of communication to people with valid questions is pathetic. The media doesn't seem to be much better with a constant focus on creating the "scariest/most fear mongering" headline they can devise.
I have been grouped here into the "people who don't respect the healthcare system and the deaths". :rolleyes:
Yeah I don’t think there has been much fearmongering. People seem to think that actually reporting news and estimates is fearmongering when it’s actually... news.
If anything people aren't scared enough. There's so little respect or worry, more annoyance that we're in the situation.
The population can be divided into different categories in terms of the way they absorb information about Covid.

It is true that an important section of the population don't care. However, it is also true that some are overly petrified, stressed and concerned about news and future. I know some relatively young people whose only one interactions - in the real life - are cashiers since several months. They go out only to go to the supermarkets once a week as they are working from home, retired or unemployed.

Impact of media news on mental health is huge for some vulnerable people.

1. What’s the concern about false positives?Who gives a shit? Seriously. Conspiracy muppets have been banging this drum for ages. Trying to pretend this epidemic isn’t as serious as it seems. Now we have hospitals literally on their knees and it still worries you that some people might have been inconvenienced by being asked to restrict their movements when it might not have been necessary. That’s what worries you?!
Democracy is based on the trust citizens place on politicians and the political system. Individuals are free to distrust politicians or be sceptical about some topics for good or bad reasons, and they are not always "Conspiracy theorists".

The vast majority of those who disagree with political measures are not "Conspiracy muppets". The vast majority of Republicans/supporters of Trump do not agree with the US Capitol attacks.

In theory, one can agree with BBC/Westminster on the assessment of the covid situation at 75% and strongly disagree about the remaining 25%

The two extremes I can identify are:
- The Conspiracy muppets who are generally repetitive, boring, paranoids and who confuse causality with coincidence. *Depressing*
- The Parrots who repeat what they hear from mainstream media and who take everything for granted. No critical thinking. *Appalling*

The Truth is in the middle.

1. I was just giving my general view of the whole thing so far. I suppose concern was the wrong word. I was interested in the effectiveness and accuracy of the PCR test during 2020. I wasn't trying to link the issues of PCR test to the situation we have now. I was just skeptical over the PCR test numbers that occurred throughout 2020. I just wanted to make sure that the data was correct and hear other opinions on it. Obviously the position we are in now shows that Covid is once again rising.
Your question is legitimate about the efficiency of a test but more critical aspects are:
  1. Number of people hospitalized i.e. NHS overwhelmed?
  2. Death toll i.e. the direct impact of Covid on life expectancy
  3. Number of people who suffer from the consequences of Covid i.e. the long-term impact of Covid on the well-being of people tested positive at some point
I think you are worrying over nothing Wilford.you are only meant to take a test *when you have symptoms* (or in other specific situations).
Not when you come into contact with someone with the virus.

Not when a family member gets the virus. Not when you want to go back to work. If you have symptoms and you test positive that's two pieces of evidence you have the virus, not just one. The far far far bigger problem is no one understands the rules
In France, a test is mandatory for somebody identified as a contact of person tested positive.
 

rcoobc

Not as crap as eferyone thinks
Joined
Jul 28, 2010
Messages
41,701
Location
C-137
In France, a test is mandatory for somebody identified as a contact of person tested positive.
When?

I read that before 4-5 days of contact/infection the virus may not show up, even using PCR
 

Tibs

Full Member
Joined
Aug 16, 2007
Messages
13,762
Location
UK
Germany has hit 40k deaths today...their population is roughly 25% larger than ours.

We have double the death count.

Todays figures:

508 deaths
55k new cases
 

SalfordRed18

Netflix and avocado, no chill
Joined
Sep 24, 2012
Messages
14,048
Location
Salford
Supports
Ashwood City FC
Germany has hit 40k deaths today...their population is roughly 25% larger than ours.

We have double the death count.

Todays figures:

508 deaths
55k new cases
How does Berlin look in comparison to say London?

Genuine question.
 

UnrelatedPsuedo

I pity the poor fool who stinks like I do!
Joined
Apr 15, 2015
Messages
10,232
Location
Blitztown
The question is to what level you're willing to impinge of people's liberties and how much safer would that make them.

On the one extreme you have people that would be happy for the government to pass laws preventing people from leaving their house, enforcing it with the military and imprisoning people for failing to comply (China effectively).

On the other extreme you have people who don't believe the virus exists at all.

As is often the case both extremes scare the shit out of me.
No.

The underlined is happening.
The bold is not.

The vast overwhelming majority want clear and sensible restrictions that tighten and loosen as necessary, with all following them.

The two extremes you speak of are not even vaguely equal. The underlined has become a threat to public health. The bold has received zero traction or support from any meaningful number of people. Nobody wants it.

If you believe what you wrote, change your news sources immediately because you’re wrong. No if’s, buts or coconuts.
 

redshaw

Full Member
Joined
Jul 17, 2015
Messages
9,689
UK has two million vaccinated so far with 13 million planned by mid Feb. AstraZeneca have said they will supply 2 million a week soon.

Should make a real dent in the death toll but it's a tragedy many will die becasue we couldn't hold out over chrimbo. People may have lived to see many more will have seen their last.