SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

11101

Full Member
Joined
Aug 26, 2014
Messages
21,207
Yet France closed its border with UK late last year. Each country can still close its borders it would seem.
The UK was not in the EU at that point.

The internal borders have been closed temporarily, but there has always been a long list of exceptions and it's always been a political and practical issue to keep them closed for more than a short time.


The only possible radical response would have been the whole of the EU closing borders with the rest of the world.
That has now happened. I don't remember when it came into effect, but the pre-Christmas response to the UK should have been done in March for the whole rest of the world. The West wanted to keep everything open for as long as possible, but it didn't take long for China to shut their borders once the shoe was on the other foot.
 
Last edited:

Traub

Full Member
Joined
Jun 26, 2009
Messages
10,221
My gf is awaiting some results because she's felt light-headed and nauseous the last few days. I've felt fine but woken up today quite off-balance and dizzy, also got a bit of nausea but none of the symptoms they tell you to keep an eye out for. I know they can be wide ranging though.

Should get my gfs results soon and my test is on the way I think.
Anecdotally, nausea seems a very common symptom these days. Hoping it comes back negative mate.
 

finneh

Full Member
Joined
Jun 28, 2010
Messages
7,318
Because it would have been harder and more painful than it was for NZ or AU so nobody was prepared to take bold enough action early enough. As usual politicians are worried about votes rather than doing the right thing. Many like the UK (initially) and Sweden were seduced by the idiotic idea of letting the virus run riot to get get herd immunity when it was fairly obvious how flawed that thinking was.

Others just tried to muddle through. Australia would have done almost the same but our Federal government weren't allowed to make a cock up by the state premiers who could shut borders etc and sell it as looking after "my people" which was and is hugely popular in the main.
We saw the carnage caused when France closed the UK border for a couple of days. I think it's absurd to assume this could have happened for months on end.

Likewise we've seen governments in the EU implementing very harsh lockdown measures and it's been met with the wholesale support of the electorate; you only need to read this forum and people have been clamouring for harsher measures, so I'm unsure how this would be electorally damaging. In fact I'd say Covid zero would have been a popular policy for the government to justify as they would point to the thousands of lives it would save (especially with the furlough scheme). Can you imagine Johnson's popularity if we were all celebrating Christmas with our families whilst our neighbours were all locked down?

The reason the strategy was only implemented in a handful of countries that are either isolated, self-sustaining and/or dictatorships; was because it was only be possible under those conditions. Even particularly Eastern European countries that were fortunately barely touched by the first wave and had severally months to prepare / implement such a strategy realised it wasn't possible.

We're unlikely to ever agree of course but I find your contributions to the thread often interesting/insightful all the same.
Closing borders within the EU is a non-starter. I wish people would stop pretending it’s an option (or ever was an option). It won’t ever happen. For obvious reasons.

The only possible radical response would have been the whole of the EU closing borders with the rest of the world. I hope that we have a lot of discussions now about how this might work in a future pandemic. Unfortunately, Brexit has complicated things (a phrase we’ll hear a lot in the years ahead)
Agreed. How feasible this would have been politically is another story - even abiding by EU rules at the time could you imagine back in March when Boris was bragging about shaking hands with Covid patients being told the UK had to shut down to the rest of the world? At the time it would have been music to the ears of the ERG that's for sure.
 
Last edited:

do.ob

Full Member
Joined
Jun 19, 2010
Messages
15,567
Location
Germany
Supports
Borussia Dortmund
The fact that's a sea border makes it easier though right?

For example, I can't see how it'd be possible for Switzerland and Germany to close their border. There's a heap of road crossings between the two, as well as towns and cities built on the border. A lot of people live in one and work in the other (usually live in Germany and work in Switzerland).

And that's just one border, I guess the same is true for most countries on the continent.
Both countries are separated by the Rhine river and lake Constance, I counted about 10 crossings on google maps, that border is probably one of the easier to police. And Germany actually has "closed" it's borders during the pandemic. The thing is that this isn't supposed to be airtight, to mess with lorries or people who work across the border. It's supposed to prevent spread via recreational visits and holiday makers and you can spot out most of them via license plates.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,351
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
That has now happened. I don't remember when it came into effect, but the pre-Christmas response to the UK should have been done in March for the whole rest of the world. The West wanted to keep everything open for as long as possible, but it didn't take long for China to shut their borders once the shoe was on the other foot.
To a varying extent. Lots of “please self isolate for 14 days if you travel from UK/South Africa” but not many countries (that I’m aware of) co-opting hotels to ensure every single international arrival is forcibly detained into quarantine.

That’s the sort of measures that would have had to have been implemented in March (ideally much earlier) in every single EU country, bar none, if we we were to have had any chance of zero covid. And we don’t seem any closer to those sort of 100% coordinated measures now than we were then.
 

11101

Full Member
Joined
Aug 26, 2014
Messages
21,207
It happened in December did it not? The UK didn’t actually leave until January.
Technically we left in January 2020. The transition period kicked in after we had left.

To a varying extent. Lots of “please self isolate for 14 days if you travel from UK/South Africa” but not many countries (that I’m aware of) co-opting hotels to ensure every single international arrival is forcibly detained into quarantine.

That’s the sort of measures that would have had to have been implemented in March (ideally much earlier) in every single EU country, bar none, if we we were to have had any chance of zero covid. And we don’t seem any closer to those sort of 100% coordinated measures now than we were then.
Unless it's disjointed, it's my understanding that nobody is allowed to enter the EU unless you are resident or meet certain exceptions or come from one of a handful of 'safe' countries. Certainly that's the case for France, Switzerland and Italy.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,351
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
Unless it's disjointed, it's my understanding that nobody is allowed to enter the EU unless you are resident or meet certain exceptions or come from one of a handful of 'safe' countries. Certainly that's the case for France, Switzerland and Italy.
Yes, it’s disjointed. Summary here. Loads of loopholes for “essential reasons” and even countries that are usually on the ball like Germany are just asking arrivals to self-isolate for 10 days. Nothing even close to what happened in NZ/Aus.
 

BD

technologically challenged barbie doll
Joined
Sep 1, 2011
Messages
23,052
Both countries are separated by the Rhine river and lake Constance, I counted about 10 crossings on google maps, that border is probably one of the easier to police. And Germany actually has "closed" it's borders during the pandemic. The thing is that this isn't supposed to be airtight, to mess with lorries or people who work across the border. It's supposed to prevent spread via recreational visits and holiday makers and you can spot out most of them via license plates.
Both countries are separated by the Rhine river and lake Constance, I counted about 10 crossings on google maps, that border is probably one of the easier to police. And Germany actually has "closed" it's borders during the pandemic. The thing is that this isn't supposed to be airtight, to mess with lorries or people who work across the border. It's supposed to prevent spread via recreational visits and holiday makers and you can spot out most of them via license plates.
Maybe we have different definitions, but I counted more than 10 corssings just between Kanton Schaffhausen and Germany?

But anyway that's beside the point. I generally agree that the border closures would ideally just make it more inconvenient for holidaymakers. But I don't think it's at all feasible.
 

VP89

Pogba's biggest fan
Joined
Dec 6, 2015
Messages
31,123
The vaccine rollout is a bit of a mess in UK. A lot of people have got it despite not being health care workers or in high risk categories, non elderly etc.

So many people just turn up, nod to say they're healthcare, get the jab and leave. I don't know if that's because hubs might have had situations where vaccines are about to expire and loosened the requirement. Would make more sense if that's why.
 

BD

technologically challenged barbie doll
Joined
Sep 1, 2011
Messages
23,052
Can any German posters here give some insight into how the vaccinations are going there? I've a few friends there who are presumably high up enough on the list (underlying conditions), but I don't really want to keep bugging them by asking them if they know any more about when they'll get it.
 

groovyalbert

it's a mute point
Joined
Feb 14, 2013
Messages
9,609
Location
London
The vaccine rollout is a bit of a mess in UK. A lot of people have got it despite not being health care workers or in high risk categories, non elderly etc.

So many people just turn up, nod to say they're healthcare, get the jab and leave. I don't know if that's because hubs might have had situations where vaccines are about to expire and loosened the requirement. Would make more sense if that's why.
I mean, I get that we should be trying to vaccinate specific groups, but there seems to be a real issue in getting those people vaccinated quickly enough for a number of reasons.

I'm starting to think more and more that just doing as many as quickly as possible is the bet option for the UK, especially given how severe things have gotten here. It's sort of crazy to expect the most at risk to put themselves at real risk of getting the virus whilst in the process of getting a vaccine for that same virus.
 

do.ob

Full Member
Joined
Jun 19, 2010
Messages
15,567
Location
Germany
Supports
Borussia Dortmund
Maybe we have different definitions, but I counted more than 10 corssings just between Kanton Schaffhausen and Germany?

But anyway that's beside the point. I generally agree that the border closures would ideally just make it more inconvenient for holidaymakers. But I don't think it's at all feasible.
You're correct, I had my eyes glued to the river. But still: you tell authorities to leave lorries and local license plates be and to pull out and check cars that aren't from places around and when you catch someone who doesn't have a good explanation you fine them. That sounds like a fairly reasonable deterrent to me. Plus a lot of regular people will probably not be planning holiday trips across borders they aren't supposed to cross. It's certainly a lot easier to police than the 15km containment zone around hot spots that is coming.
 

do.ob

Full Member
Joined
Jun 19, 2010
Messages
15,567
Location
Germany
Supports
Borussia Dortmund
Can any German posters here give some insight into how the vaccinations are going there? I've a few friends there who are presumably high up enough on the list (underlying conditions), but I don't really want to keep bugging them by asking them if they know any more about when they'll get it.
The federal goverment has a detailled priority list on its homepage. Unfortunately the English translation, as always, is the bare minimum. The distribution is up to the states to organize, so depending on where one lives things might move faster or slower.

Here's a DW article on it:
https://www.dw.com/en/covid-german-regulations-on-who-gets-vaccine-first/a-55987647

As far as I know they are still at groups 1.1 and 1.2 on the list.
 
Last edited:

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
88,609
Location
Centreback
The fact that's a sea border makes it easier though right?

For example, I can't see how it'd be possible for Switzerland and Germany to close their border. There's a heap of road crossings between the two, as well as towns and cities built on the border. A lot of people live in one and work in the other (usually live in Germany and work in Switzerland).

And that's just one border, I guess the same is true for most countries on the continent.
We were discussing the UK and obviously being an Island helps although Australia locked state borders. Distance helped but they still did it and lots of people live in one state and work in another. Albury/Wodonga on the NSW/Vic border and Tweed Heads/Coolangatta on the NSW/Qld border.

And import/export didn't stop and transport between states continued. It was just regulated.
 

wr8_utd

:'(
Joined
Apr 22, 2008
Messages
38,160
I know two people in London now who have gotten their first doses but won't get the second till March. This is quite ridiculous. Even the WHO said 6 weeks it the maximum gap. Moderna/Pfizer have both said to not delay the second doses and yet the UK is on their own trip here.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,351
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
We were discussing the UK and obviously being an Island helps although Australia locked state borders. Distance helped but they still did it and lots of people live in one state and work in another. Albury/Wodonga on the NSW/Vic border and Tweed Heads/Coolangatta on the NSW/Qld border.

And import/export didn't stop and transport between states continued. It was just regulated.
And we saw that cases jumped from state to state in Aus, repeatedly. What worked very well was the restrictions around air travel from other countries. Making land borders impermeable to the virus hasn’t worked anywhere.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
88,609
Location
Centreback
We saw the carnage caused when France closed the UK border for a couple of days. I think it's absurd to assume this could have happened for months on end.
A closed border doesn't mean no imports or exports. It means safely regulated ones. The interconnectedness of Europe makes things harder but the UK could have locked their borders if they wanted to and could organise a piss up in brewery. But they can't and it is well past any possible opportunity now anyway.

Likewise we've seen governments in the EU implementing very harsh lockdown measures and it's been met with the wholesale support of the electorate; you only need to read this forum and people have been clamouring for harsher measures, so I'm unsure how this would be electorally damaging. In fact I'd say Covid zero would have been a popular policy for the government to justify as they would point to the thousands of lives it would save (especially with the furlough scheme). Can you imagine Johnson's popularity if we were all celebrating Christmas with our families whilst our neighbours were all locked down?
Has anywhere in Europe had very strict lockdowns? Border closures or even real quarantine didn't seem to happen in any/many places.

The reason the strategy was only implemented in a handful of countries that are either isolated, self-sustaining and/or dictatorships; was because it was only be possible under those conditions. Even particularly Eastern European countries that were fortunately barely touched by the first wave and had severally months to prepare / implement such a strategy realised it wasn't possible.
The biggest, but not only, factor was political will and leadership. You need politicians bold enough (or for who the political stars align) and once you make the wrong choice it is very hard to go back. Australia had some luck at the beginning and then closed borders just fast enough and then state governments were given the political capital to do what was needed as it played very well to their home electorate. The state government started well but have been very lucky that the state government rs curbed their worst instincts. It would be virtually impossible to do now in the UK and while any restriction that can get the UK through the next few months of mass vaccination is probably a good idea no way will a full lockdown happen.

We're unlikely to ever agree of course but I find your contributions to the thread often interesting/insightful all the same.

Agreed. How feasible this would have been politically is another story - even abiding by EU rules at the time could you imagine back in March when Boris was bragging about shaking hands with Covid patients being told the UK had to shut down to the rest of the world? At the time it would have been music to the ears of the ERG that's for sure.
With the Tories in charge (and probably any UK political party) it was a non-starter no matter what I think anyway. But think how many of the 80,000 we could have saved with more to come?
 
Last edited:

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
88,609
Location
Centreback
And we saw that cases jumped from state to state in Aus, repeatedly. What worked very well was the restrictions around air travel from other countries. Making land borders impermeable to the virus hasn’t worked anywhere.
Only when the borders were open/reopened.

They are closed again now. Victoria has eradicated again and Qld and NSW has only 2 or 3 cases per day and reducing. Cellularising infection is a highly effective method of control. We just locked down the Northern Beaches and it made a huge and rapid difference.

In Brisbane's recent case it was more about caution as the one case that escaped from the quarantine hotels was the UK variant.
 
Last edited:

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,351
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
This was interesting, largely because it suggests to me that the measures taken by schools have actually been very effective. Viruses that we do know children are a significant reservoir for, like flu, are down massively. Credit to schools for that.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ommon-cold-flu-cases-coronavirus-restrictions
I find data like that slightly scary. If SARS-CoV-2 can surge like it is right now, while incidence of colds and flu fall off a cliff then it must be considerably more transmissible. Which is a big change from the early reassurances that it was about as contagious as flu.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,351
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
Only when the borders were open/reopened.
Well borders were only closed after index cases had been identified and distant outbreaks seeded, which were managed by local lockdowns. We certainly don’t have any evidence that closing land borders helped contain the virus.

Also. How long were Australian state borders closed at a time? We could possibly tolerate closing EU land borders for a few days at a time but definitely not for as long as NZ/Aus has had enforced quarantine etc at airports.
 
Last edited:

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
88,609
Location
Centreback
This was interesting, largely because it suggests to me that the measures taken by schools have actually been very effective. Viruses that we do know children are a significant reservoir for, like flu, are down massively. Credit to schools for that.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ommon-cold-flu-cases-coronavirus-restrictions
The restrictions everywhere have assisted the restriction of all viral respiratory viruses. Any measures schools have taken will help but the relative lack of general transmission will be the biggest factor.
 

acnumber9

Full Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2006
Messages
22,254
Well borders were only closed after index cases had been identified and distant outbreaks seeded, which were managed by local lockdowns. We certainly don’t have any evidence that closing land borders helped contain the virus.

Also. How long were Australian state borders closed at a time? We could possibly tolerate closing EU land borders for a few days at a time but definitely not for as long as NZ/Aus has had enforced quarantine etc at airports.
Surely colds and flus are falling into the people who have symptoms but test negative for Covid? Why would people be going to GP’s etc with that at the moment? Most will probably assume Covid until they test negative then leave it there.

Edit: I quoted the wrong post.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
88,609
Location
Centreback
Well borders were only closed after index cases had been identified and distant outbreaks seeded, which were managed by local lockdowns. We certainly don’t have any evidence that closing land borders helped contain the virus.

Also. How long were Australian state borders closed at a time? We could possibly tolerate closing EU land borders for a few days at a time but definitely not for as long as NZ/Aus has had enforced quarantine etc at airports.
The border closures have varied in length. WA were closed for about 6 months I think and are back up again. As far as I remember we haven't had one case seeded from another state when state borders were closed. Maybe one where there were partial border closures (e.g closed to anyone from a hotspot and an infected person lied to cross a border)?

The source of every recent infection/cluster has been quarantine hotels, or associated people, within a particular state and open borders have allowed the spread to other states. States like WA who have had the hardest of closed borders hasn't had any spread.

Even now everyone from any other state has to quarantine for 14 days. Self quarantine for low risk states like NT who haven't had a case for months and under police guard for most others. Seems harsh but it has worked.

If you look at pandemic modelling cellularisation of infection, even with partly porous borders, does make a difference in slowing the spread and allowing gains in any one cell to be maintained.
 
Last edited:

arnie_ni

Full Member
Joined
Apr 27, 2014
Messages
15,095
My gf is awaiting some results because she's felt light-headed and nauseous the last few days. I've felt fine but woken up today quite off-balance and dizzy, also got a bit of nausea but none of the symptoms they tell you to keep an eye out for. I know they can be wide ranging though.

Should get my gfs results soon and my test is on the way I think.
My gf has these exact same symptoms and been of work for 4 weeks on sick. Doctors haven't seen her but have prescribed vertigo medicine. Let me know if she tests positive and ill send my wife for a test.

Hopefully your gf is ok
 

lynchie

Full Member
Joined
Dec 9, 2006
Messages
7,065
The restrictions everywhere have assisted the restriction of all viral respiratory viruses. Any measures schools have taken will help but the relative lack of general transmission will be the biggest factor.
Well, yeah, obviously all the restictions have helped - but given schools have largely been open to date this winter, and children are known to be a major spreader of flu, it's impressive that we've seen the reduction we have.

I find data like that slightly scary. If SARS-CoV-2 can surge like it is right now, while incidence of colds and flu fall off a cliff then it must be considerably more transmissible. Which is a big change from the early reassurances that it was about as contagious as flu.
That's a good point, but I think it also relates to us putting in place lots of preventative measures (obsessive surface cleaning, etc) because they're effective for colds and flu, while they may not be the ideal measures for this virus.
 

lynchie

Full Member
Joined
Dec 9, 2006
Messages
7,065
Surely colds and flus are falling into the people who have symptoms but test negative for Covid? Why would people be going to GP’s etc with that at the moment? Most will probably assume Covid until they test negative then leave it there.

Edit: I quoted the wrong post.
Assuming you mean the article - the guy from Southampton University quoted in it does address this point, but says that can't account for the scale of reduction.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,351
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
That's a good point, but I think it also relates to us putting in place lots of preventative measures (obsessive surface cleaning, etc) because they're effective for colds and flu, while they may not be the ideal measures for this virus.
I think the only way to interpret this is that the R for covid is a lot higher than flu/colds. Let’s say 3.5 vs 2.5.

The measures taken drop the R for all respiratory viruses by, say, 1.6. That takes colds/flu to < 1.0 which means they effectively die out but SARS-CoV-2 remains at 1.9 and continues to spread.

As I said that’s a bit depressing/scary as we’ve been assured for a while that it’s not much more contagious than influenza. And this is all before the UK/SA variants become dominant (talking from Irish perspective anyway)
 
Last edited:

Lj82

Full Member
Joined
Jun 12, 2016
Messages
1,060
Location
Singapore
Closing is genuinely difficult within Europe though, even for an island. France implemented a temporary border closure with the UK just before Christmas - within two days we had 10000 lorries + drivers waiting at the port.

People living in one country, working in another is common in Europe. Maintenance teams often work across the whole of Europe.

Improved testing, with faster (and more reliable) turnround times might be practical, but closures? I'm sure we'll hear the politicians announce them in the future, but the exceptions list will be big.
That situation isn't unique. The same happened here when Malaysia first closed its borders to Singapore. The two countries quickly worked out a system to ensure trucks and other essential stuff can pass through customs. We did stop the human flow though. Thousands and thousands of Malaysians who work in Singapore but live in Malaysia were affected. We just try to find solutions for that. It's tough. Many Malaysian workers are stuck in Singapore for almost a year already, not being able to go back to see their loved ones. But it's bloody effective in controlling the pandemic.
 

massi83

Full Member
Joined
Feb 2, 2009
Messages
2,595
.
My gf has these exact same symptoms and been of work for 4 weeks on sick. Doctors haven't seen her but have prescribed vertigo medicine. Let me know if she tests positive and ill send my wife for a test.

Hopefully your gf is ok
Must be hard to keep both gf and wife happy during a pandemic!
 

acnumber9

Full Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2006
Messages
22,254
Assuming you mean the article - the guy from Southampton University quoted in it does address this point, but says that can't account for the scale of reduction.
Yeah, it mentions not contacting GP’s but I think that’s being overplayed slightly. The people getting negatives have to be suffering from some virus, otherwise why are they getting tested? And I imagine contacting GP’s is down across the board.
 

Brwned

Have you ever been in love before?
Joined
Apr 18, 2008
Messages
50,829
"The worst thing now would be for...the vaccine programme to breed any kind of complacency"

I really hope this isn't the assumption the government are operating under because it seems obvious that as the vaccines roll out to friends and family, people will relax. Many people are agreeing to do things they consider inhuman because we're in the most extreme situation, once people feel it is no longer so extreme, they won't be as vigilant. And once some people in the community start to relax, particularly those you know, you'll start relaxing too. Once the people "at risk" in your community are vaccinated, then you'll be able to rationalise the wider community risks away, and feel more comfortable taking your own personal risks. Even when those rationalisations are based on miscalculations of the risk.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a big spike in hospitalisations among the 45-64 year old age group towards the end of Feb. Once their parents and elderly family and friends are safe, I think a lot of people will start socialising relatively normally. That age group are still about 50% less likely to be infected than younger adults because they adhere more strongly to the restrictions, but they're 3-4x as likely to be hospitalised. If 3x as many people aged 45-64 got infected as do currently, which doesn't seem a huge leap given the sheltered lives so many are living currently, it would make up for all of the 65+s no longer in hospital.

The estimates are based on the hospitalisation rates from here, which suggest in the week after Christmas there were around 200 kids aged 0-14 newly hospitalised with covid, 2,000 15-44 year olds, 5,000 45-64 year olds, 3,500 65-74 year olds, 4,500 75-84 year olds, and 4,000 85+. All of which totals up to just over 19,000 cases, which matches the total for England from here, so probably underestimates the UK total for each age group by ~ 15%.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,351
Location
&quot;like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
"The worst thing now would be for...the vaccine programme to breed any kind of complacency"

I really hope this isn't the assumption the government are operating under because it seems obvious that as the vaccines roll out to friends and family, people will relax. Many people are agreeing to do things they consider inhuman because we're in the most extreme situation, once people feel it is no longer so extreme, they won't be as vigilant. And once some people in the community start to relax, particularly those you know, you'll start relaxing too. Once the people "at risk" in your community are vaccinated, then you'll be able to rationalise the wider community risks away, and feel more comfortable taking your own personal risks. Even when those rationalisations are based on miscalculations of the risk.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a big spike in hospitalisations among the 45-64 year old age group towards the end of Feb. Once their parents and elderly family and friends are safe, I think a lot of people will start socialising relatively normally. That age group are still about 50% less likely to be infected than younger adults because they adhere more strongly to the restrictions, but they're 3-4x as likely to be hospitalised. If 3x as many people aged 45-64 got infected as do currently, which doesn't seem a huge leap given the sheltered lives so many are living currently, it would make up for all of the 65+s no longer in hospital.

The estimates are based on the hospitalisation rates from here, which suggest in the week after Christmas there were around 200 kids aged 0-14 newly hospitalised with covid, 2,000 15-44 year olds, 5,000 45-64 year olds, 3,500 65-74 year olds, 4,500 75-84 year olds, and 4,000 85+. All of which totals up to just over 19,000 cases, which matches the total for England from here, so probably underestimates the UK total for each age group by ~ 15%.
Yeah, that’s a real worry. I actually think this current surge was fuelled by all the good news about vaccines in the last couple of months. Even though (almost) nobody was getting vaccinated the virus felt less threatening once we knew how it could/would be defeated. I’m convinced that led to a load of people taking more risks than they would otherwise.

And you’re dead right. We’re likely heading for a huge surge in younger cases once the older/most vulnerable are protected. And don’t forget that younger cases place q much higher demand on hospitals and ITU beds. A lot of the most frail/elderly victims weren’t even considered for hospital admission, never mind ventilation.

Coming out of lockdown safely this time round is going to be incredibly difficult to manage.
 
Last edited:

SalfordRed18

Netflix and avocado, no chill
Joined
Sep 24, 2012
Messages
13,928
Location
Salford
Supports
Ashwood City FC
I just realised, i think I preferred the daily press conferences even though they became shit and no one watched towards the end.

Now when theres a press conference announced, like this evening, I get a feeling of dread, like I know I and others are about to get bent over.
 

Brwned

Have you ever been in love before?
Joined
Apr 18, 2008
Messages
50,829
Yeah, that’s a real worry. I actually think this current surge was fuelled by all the good news about vaccines in the last couple of months. Even though (almost) nobody was getting vaccinated the virus felt less threatening once we knew how it could/would be defeated. I’m convinced that led to a load of people taking more risks than they would otherwise.

And you’re dead right. We’re likely heading for a huge surge in younger cases once the older/most vulnerable are protected. And don’t forget that younger cases place q much higher demand on hospitals and ITU beds. A lot of the most frail/elderly victims weren’t even considered for hospital admission, never mind ventilation.

Coming out of lockdown safely this time round is going to be incredibly difficult to manage.
Yeah, agreed. Although I don't think the vaccine news went all in one direction for Christmas. My granny was happy to put off this Christmas when she new a vaccine would be available to her within a month, while just a month earlier she was adamant she was going to see family despite the risks because it could be her last. I think that applies in different contexts across the age ranges. I definitely found it easier to make sacrifices over the holidays knowing there was something to look forward to in the not-too-distant future. But yeah I'm sure it emboldened some of the bigger parties too.

I just realised, i think I preferred the daily press conferences even though they became shit and no one watched towards the end.

Now when theres a press conference announced, like this evening, I get a feeling of dread, like I know I and others are about to get bent over.
I think this is just the start of new daily press conferences, mostly focused on the one positive we have at the moment: the vaccines. They said they were starting daily briefings on that from this Monday. Or is this another one?