Brighton and Hove Albion 2020/21 season

Flanders Devil

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Can anyone explain the ruled out goal please? I get that it’s to do with the second whistle, but still don’t know why that’s relevant? Thanks!

And for what’s it’s worth, the discussion here on Brighton is spot on. And one of the more balanced conversations on Redcafe.
@Nickosaur - if you do watch the u23s, I’d be very interested in your views on Caicedo. I was hoping we’d sign him.
 

Maluco

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I think they have better players than the majority of the bottom half. It’s the biggest example going of how we can’t play football based on stats and how using Xg as much as we do, doesn’t tell the true story.

They aren’t doing enough to win games, and it doesn’t really matter what Xg says about it. The table doesn’t lie and 5 wins after 26 games shouldn’t be overlooked because they have had better Xg in about 8 of them.

I think it’s a bit silly to suggest Potter is doing a good job sitting in 17th with 5 wins all season, no matter what the stats suggest. They are definitely an example of how something useful can be overused and over analyzed.
 

Spaghetti

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Can anyone explain the ruled out goal please? I get that it’s to do with the second whistle, but still don’t know why that’s relevant? Thanks!

And for what’s it’s worth, the discussion here on Brighton is spot on. And one of the more balanced conversations on Redcafe.
@Nickosaur - if you do watch the u23s, I’d be very interested in your views on Caicedo. I was hoping we’d sign him.
The ref (wrongly) blew the whistle a second time. The whistle stops the game, and a goal cannot be scored when the game is stopped, just like you can’t score a goal before a whistle is blown.

Even though it didn’t impact the run of play, the goal has to be disallowed.
 

AgentSmith

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I think they have better players than the majority of the bottom half. It’s the biggest example going of how we can’t play football based on stats and how using Xg as much as we do, doesn’t tell the true story.

They aren’t doing enough to win games, and it doesn’t really matter what Xg says about it. The table doesn’t lie and 5 wins after 26 games shouldn’t be overlooked because they have had better Xg in about 8 of them.

I think it’s a bit silly to suggest Potter is doing a good job sitting in 17th with 5 wins all season, no matter what the stats suggest. They are definitely an example of how something useful can be overused and over analyzed.
Would the argument not be that they are doing enough to win games in terms of possession, chances created and general control of the game?

They’re just not finishing the chances and then giving away stupid goals.

Missing two penalties and losing 1-0 to West Brom is just unlucky. The only match unluckier this season would be their game against us at the start of the season.

Both matches should have given them 6 points; through errors and bad luck they got zero. Seems to have been the story of their season. Wouldn’t criticise Potter too much for that.

A player like Ivan Toney would genuinely turn them into a top 10 team for me. Could be a similar turn around in trajectory to Aston Villa if they survive and get the right signings in the summer.
 

Flanders Devil

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The ref (wrongly) blew the whistle a second time. The whistle stops the game, and a goal cannot be scored when the game is stopped, just like you can’t score a goal before a whistle is blown.

Even though it didn’t impact the run of play, the goal has to be disallowed.
Thank you, appreciate your response. That explains it...I think.
So the first whistle is him allowing Dunk to take the kick early.
Then he changes he’s mind presumably (?).

So... if the ball had already crossed the line before his second whistle, would it have counted? We’re WBA just luck he had blown the whistle just in time (from their point of view).

And... why did he then give the goal?


Seems like he changed his mind about 4 times
 

Maluco

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Would the argument not be that they are doing enough to win games in terms of possession, chances created and general control of the game?

They’re just not finishing the chances and then giving away stupid goals.

Missing two penalties and losing 1-0 to West Brom is just unlucky. The only match unluckier this season would be their game against us at the start of the season.

Both matches should have given them 6 points; through errors and bad luck they got zero. Seems to have been the story of their season. Wouldn’t criticise Potter too much for that.

A player like Ivan Toney would genuinely turn them into a top 10 team for me. Could be a similar turn around in trajectory to Aston Villa if they survive and get the right signings in the summer.
You could be right, but I think very team could pick out 2 games this season that they should have won.

26 games is enough to tell its own story and there are no rewards for having a healthy Xg. You can control the game and have all the possession you want, but if it’s not working, you need to try something different.

They are no further forward than they were when they first came up despite adding to the squad.

I don’t think there is enough there to start giving out any prizes to Potter yet.
 

Spaghetti

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Thank you, appreciate your response. That explains it...I think.
So the first whistle is him allowing Dunk to take the kick early.
Then he changes he’s mind presumably (?).

So... if the ball had already crossed the line before his second whistle, would it have counted? We’re WBA just luck he had blown the whistle just in time (from their point of view).

And... why did he then give the goal?


Seems like he changed his mind about 4 times
I believe the goal would have stood if the second whistle had sounded 0.5 seconds later.

He allowed the goal to stand (after some player pressure) because it was a perfectly valid goal, until he later checked and the whistle was before the ball had crossed the line.

I’m not sure exactly what was going through his mind, but he seemed to blow thinking everyone was ready, then his instincts blew again when he saw the ‘keeper still lining up the wall. After the players said “well, you blew so we took it”, he gave the goal, then disallowed when he checked the timing of the whistle and the ball crossing the line.
 

AgentSmith

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You could be right, but I think very team could pick out 2 games this season that they should have won.

26 games is enough to tell its own story and there are no rewards for having a healthy Xg. You can control the game and have all the possession you want, but if it’s not working, you need to try something different.

They are no further forward than they were when they first came up despite adding to the squad.

I don’t think there is enough there to start giving out any prizes to Potter yet.
Yeah I appreciate what you’re saying, they’re definitely underachieving relative to their abilities. I just think the primary cause of that is individual errors rather than managerial incompetence.

And the point about bad luck being universal is a fair one but I can’t imagine there’s another team that’s suffered a pair of defeats as unlucky as those two.

If you give them 6 points rather 0 for those two games they’re in 13th and closer to 6th than they are to 18th. It’s fine margins at the bottom of the table and they’ve consistently fallen on the wrong side of that divide all season. It’s been relentless bad luck.

The table doesn’t lie but I think Brighton might be the exception to that rule ATM so hopefully they get a chance to prove it next season. I’d hope we can all agree that they offer much more to the league than a Burnley or West Brom.
 

The Brown Bull

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Lee Mason made a big mistake. That and the rule is just plain daft. As Lineker said on MOTD it punishes the attacking team.
 

Mr Smith

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I think they have better players than the majority of the bottom half. It’s the biggest example going of how we can’t play football based on stats and how using Xg as much as we do, doesn’t tell the true story.

They aren’t doing enough to win games, and it doesn’t really matter what Xg says about it. The table doesn’t lie and 5 wins after 26 games shouldn’t be overlooked because they have had better Xg in about 8 of them.

I think it’s a bit silly to suggest Potter is doing a good job sitting in 17th with 5 wins all season, no matter what the stats suggest. They are definitely an example of how something useful can be overused and over analyzed.
I think their Xg says a lot; specifically that they're not clinical, and waste a lot of chances. Two missed penalties is as good evidence of that as you'll find.

They certainly have been unlucky in individual games, but if you don't score from multiple chances and concede regularly from only a few, you're going to get into trouble. I think Potter's problem is he doesn't have the quality of player for the football he's trying to play, and they're regularly getting punished. I'm really worried for them, I think they're going to go down.
 

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Lee Mason made a big mistake. That and the rule is just plain daft. As Lineker said on MOTD it punishes the attacking team.
Dunk also made a mistake with his after game comments. I can see some disciplinary issues heading his way. imagine the shite storm if a United player called a ref out in such fashion.
 

Pagh Wraith

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RkSquadMPWDLGFGAGDPtsxGxGAxGDxGD/90VNotes
1Manchester City2619525216+366249.219.5+29.7+1.14
5Chelsea2512764125+164339.523.0+16.5+0.66
6Liverpool2511774534+114046.531.8+14.7+0.59
16Brighton26511102633-72637.726.2+11.5+0.44
2Manchester Utd2514745332+214941.030.2+10.8+0.43
3Leicester City2515464427+174937.029.6+7.5+0.30
8Aston Villa2412393826+123936.630.7+5.9+0.25
4West Ham2613674031+94535.529.2+6.2+0.24
11Arsenal25104113126+53433.129.9+3.1+0.13
9Tottenham2410683727+103630.530.0+0.5+0.02
12Wolves2697102733-63426.028.3-2.3-0.09
10Leeds United26112134344-13540.043.0-2.9-0.11
7Everton2412483733+44028.932.4-3.5-0.15
18Fulham25410112132-112228.133.9-5.8-0.23
14Southampton2586113143-123024.132.6-8.5-0.34
17Newcastle Utd2675142744-172623.436.0-12.6-0.50
15Burnley2577111830-122822.035.4-13.4-0.54
20Sheffield Utd2532201541-261122.435.9-13.5-0.54
13Crystal Palace2595112943-143220.837.3-16.5-0.66
19West Brom2638152055-351718.145.4-27.3-1.05

Quite incredible. This is Dortmund 2014/15 territory.
 

Dancfc

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RkSquadMPWDLGFGAGDPtsxGxGAxGDxGD/90VNotes
1Manchester City2619525216+366249.219.5+29.7+1.14
5Chelsea2512764125+164339.523.0+16.5+0.66
6Liverpool2511774534+114046.531.8+14.7+0.59
16Brighton26511102633-72637.726.2+11.5+0.44
2Manchester Utd2514745332+214941.030.2+10.8+0.43
3Leicester City2515464427+174937.029.6+7.5+0.30
8Aston Villa2412393826+123936.630.7+5.9+0.25
4West Ham2613674031+94535.529.2+6.2+0.24
11Arsenal25104113126+53433.129.9+3.1+0.13
9Tottenham2410683727+103630.530.0+0.5+0.02
12Wolves2697102733-63426.028.3-2.3-0.09
10Leeds United26112134344-13540.043.0-2.9-0.11
7Everton2412483733+44028.932.4-3.5-0.15
18Fulham25410112132-112228.133.9-5.8-0.23
14Southampton2586113143-123024.132.6-8.5-0.34
17Newcastle Utd2675142744-172623.436.0-12.6-0.50
15Burnley2577111830-122822.035.4-13.4-0.54
20Sheffield Utd2532201541-261122.435.9-13.5-0.54
13Crystal Palace2595112943-143220.837.3-16.5-0.66
19West Brom2638152055-351718.145.4-27.3-1.05

Quite incredible. This is Dortmund 2014/15 territory.
I said on the PL thread yesterday that usually you expect a team results wildly going above or below their metrics to get their just deserts/rewards eventually and it almost always happens but Brighton seem to be the outlier, this has been going on since Potter took charge nearly two years ago.
 

VorZakone

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RkSquadMPWDLGFGAGDPtsxGxGAxGDxGD/90VNotes
1Manchester City2619525216+366249.219.5+29.7+1.14
5Chelsea2512764125+164339.523.0+16.5+0.66
6Liverpool2511774534+114046.531.8+14.7+0.59
16Brighton26511102633-72637.726.2+11.5+0.44
2Manchester Utd2514745332+214941.030.2+10.8+0.43
3Leicester City2515464427+174937.029.6+7.5+0.30
8Aston Villa2412393826+123936.630.7+5.9+0.25
4West Ham2613674031+94535.529.2+6.2+0.24
11Arsenal25104113126+53433.129.9+3.1+0.13
9Tottenham2410683727+103630.530.0+0.5+0.02
12Wolves2697102733-63426.028.3-2.3-0.09
10Leeds United26112134344-13540.043.0-2.9-0.11
7Everton2412483733+44028.932.4-3.5-0.15
18Fulham25410112132-112228.133.9-5.8-0.23
14Southampton2586113143-123024.132.6-8.5-0.34
17Newcastle Utd2675142744-172623.436.0-12.6-0.50
15Burnley2577111830-122822.035.4-13.4-0.54
20Sheffield Utd2532201541-261122.435.9-13.5-0.54
13Crystal Palace2595112943-143220.837.3-16.5-0.66
19West Brom2638152055-351718.145.4-27.3-1.05

Quite incredible. This is Dortmund 2014/15 territory.
What am I supposed to look at in this table? What's incredible here?
 

SER19

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What am I supposed to look at in this table? What's incredible here?
I think it's an expected goals table? For and against expected goal difference, which would see Brighton high up the table. Don't like expected goals myself. It's not an expected goal if a rubbish player is finishing the chance
 

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Played for the U23s yesterday. Will be a while before he's involved with the first team I reckon. Some think he'll be the replacement for Bissouma who may be sold in the summer.
Thanks mate. I am very interested in how he does and if the hype will be justified.
 

automaticflare

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You could be right, but I think very team could pick out 2 games this season that they should have won.

26 games is enough to tell its own story and there are no rewards for having a healthy Xg. You can control the game and have all the possession you want, but if it’s not working, you need to try something different.

They are no further forward than they were when they first came up despite adding to the squad.

I don’t think there is enough there to start giving out any prizes to Potter yet.

The stats like xG will transform the game soon. They will never be accurate but they show distinct patterns and variance.

Much like golf which we are seeing revolutionised since the advent of strokes gained, and the myths of drive for show putt for dough being completely admonished (but for the old pros), xG is a step in that direction.

Nothing in human sport will ever be 100%, the only way to analyze improvement is to gather the data, and the more you can tip the variance in your favour, the more likely you are to be successful.

Re. Brighton I think they are much further on. It shows quite clearly that they can dominate possession and create enough chances where they would be expected to score more goals. That is huge. The numbers don't lie. It also makes it pretty evident that the forwards they have are not good enough and gives them a pretty obvious place to look to invest and improve on. That will be the next place I expect them to look to tip the balance more in their favor.
 

Cheimoon

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The stats like xG will transform the game soon. They will never be accurate but they show distinct patterns and variance.

Much like golf which we are seeing revolutionised since the advent of strokes gained, and the myths of drive for show putt for dough being completely admonished (but for the old pros), xG is a step in that direction.

Nothing in human sport will ever be 100%, the only way to analyze improvement is to gather the data, and the more you can tip the variance in your favour, the more likely you are to be successful.

Re. Brighton I think they are much further on. It shows quite clearly that they can dominate possession and create enough chances where they would be expected to score more goals. That is huge. The numbers don't lie. It also makes it pretty evident that the forwards they have are not good enough and gives them a pretty obvious place to look to invest and improve on. That will be the next place I expect them to look to tip the balance more in their favor.
The only thing is, of course, that Brighton won't be the only club interested in a forward that can put away those good chances better. On the other hand, as long as they don't lose too much of the rest of their team, the stats suggest that they can squarely focus on just getting that forward - meaning they might have a bit more budget available for it than in case they had obvious issues in positions across their line-up.
 

Nickosaur

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The only thing is, of course, that Brighton won't be the only club interested in a forward that can put away those good chances better. On the other hand, as long as they don't lose too much of the rest of their team, the stats suggest that they can squarely focus on just getting that forward - meaning they might have a bit more budget available for it than in case they had obvious issues in positions across their line-up.
Ivan Toney is the dream, problem is half the PL want him :lol:
And unfortunately I think Bissouma (£40m+ hopefully) will be sold to fund the striker search in the summer.
 

automaticflare

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The only thing is, of course, that Brighton won't be the only club interested in a forward that can put away those good chances better. On the other hand, as long as they don't lose too much of the rest of their team, the stats suggest that they can squarely focus on just getting that forward - meaning they might have a bit more budget available for it than in case they had obvious issues in positions across their line-up.
Exactly they have bolstered most other positions in their team. i.e. there is no point buying a top class CF if you are creating poor chances every game. Like you say if they can hold on the rest of the team it is pretty evident where they need to invest. But that is also a big if.
 

Maluco

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The stats like xG will transform the game soon. They will never be accurate but they show distinct patterns and variance.

Much like golf which we are seeing revolutionised since the advent of strokes gained, and the myths of drive for show putt for dough being completely admonished (but for the old pros), xG is a step in that direction.

Nothing in human sport will ever be 100%, the only way to analyze improvement is to gather the data, and the more you can tip the variance in your favour, the more likely you are to be successful.

Re. Brighton I think they are much further on. It shows quite clearly that they can dominate possession and create enough chances where they would be expected to score more goals. That is huge. The numbers don't lie. It also makes it pretty evident that the forwards they have are not good enough and gives them a pretty obvious place to look to invest and improve on. That will be the next place I expect them to look to tip the balance more in their favor.
I get what you mean, but there are teams going better that also don’t have the quality forwards that Brighton are lacking.

Stats are vital as a means to understand the team and performances but they are not the be all and end all. XG is not going to save you if you are in the bottom three come May.

I just don’t think they have been good enough for the quality they have, and finishing chances and getting goals is the whole focus of the game.

He needs to change something or they might be calculating their XG in a different division next season. With the quality in their squad, that just shouldn’t be the case.
 

AgentSmith

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I get what you mean, but there are teams going better that also don’t have the quality forwards that Brighton are lacking.

Stats are vital as a means to understand the team and performances but they are not the be all and end all. XG is not going to save you if you are in the bottom three come May.

I just don’t think they have been good enough for the quality they have, and finishing chances and getting goals is the whole focus of the game.

He needs to change something or they might be calculating their XG in a different division next season. With the quality in their squad, that just shouldn’t be the case.
What would Potter change if their main issue this season has been poor finishing / not converting chances?
 

anant

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Like Howe, I feel Potter's biggest issue is that the style he wants to play can only be achieved by having players who are atleast 2 levels above the current BHA side.

He's a great manager, much better than Howe, and I think Potter will do well in a Southampton type side at the very least, but he needs to tweak his tactics to maximize BHA's results. Of course Ryan didn't help in the first half, and now their strikers are misfiring, but he needs to devise ugly wins if he wants to avoid relegation
 

Djemba-Djemba

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They must be infuriating to support.

Almost every time I watch them they play nice football, create loads of chances and deserve a point at least but their finishing is appalling.
 

Maluco

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What would Potter change if their main issue this season has been poor finishing / not converting chances?
Maybe trying different personnel up top, or changing the formation in some sense to get chances falling to the right players. Being more adventurous against weaker sides and having more attackers in the pitch.

You can’t just keep doing the same thing and hoping for different results or you’ll go down.

Two points in four games against Palace, West Brom, Villa and Burnley and he has played pretty much the same eleven in all of them. Change it up.
 

Ludens the Red

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When you have Welbeck, Connolly and Trossard regularly trying to finish off your chances, you’re gonna have a bad time.
 

AgentSmith

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Maybe trying different personnel up top, or changing the formation in some sense to get chances falling to the right players. Being more adventurous against weaker sides and having more attackers in the pitch.

You can’t just keep doing the same thing and hoping for different results or you’ll go down.

Two points in four games against Palace, West Brom, Villa and Burnley and he has played pretty much the same eleven in all of them. Change it up.
But the collective performances have been more than enough to win those games; a manager can’t necessarily overcome the level of individual error (poor finishing) that’s costing them points.

They dominated Palace and lose 2-1 in the final minute after having 25 shots and 75% possession.

Similar story against West Brom. 70% possession with 15 shots, 2 missed penalties and a wrongly disallowed goal.

Against Villa, one of the brightest teams this season, they have 60% possession and 26 shots with everyone calling Emi Martinez the best GK in the league after he ‘single handedly got Villa a point’.

They just don’t have good alternative options up front to try out. He’s constrained in what he can do by the squad he has available.

Which is all just a long-winded explanation of why I can’t bring myself to blame Potter given how well they’ve played every time I’ve seen them. Performances worthy of a top half finish but results worthy of a relegation battle. It’s an odd dichotomy.

I’ve always thought that in a lot of ways it’s a manager’s job to get a good performance out of a team. It’s the team’s job to then use that performance to get a good result. It’s the second part where Brighton have failed all season, not the first.
 

Maluco

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But the collective performances have been more than enough to win those games; a manager can’t necessarily overcome the level of individual error (poor finishing) that’s costing them points.

They dominated Palace and lose 2-1 in the final minute after having 25 shots and 75% possession.

Similar story against West Brom. 70% possession with 15 shots, 2 missed penalties and a wrongly disallowed goal.

Against Villa, one of the brightest teams this season, they have 60% possession and 26 shots with everyone calling Emi Martinez the best GK in the league after he ‘single handedly got Villa a point’.

They just don’t have good alternative options up front to try out. He’s constrained in what he can do by the squad he has available.

Which is all just a long-winded explanation of why I can’t bring myself to blame Potter given how well they’ve played every time I’ve seen them. Performances worthy of a top half finish but results worthy of a relegation battle. It’s an odd dichotomy.

I’ve always thought that in a lot of ways it’s a manager’s job to get a good performance out of a team. It’s the team’s job to then use that performance to get a good result. It’s the second part where Brighton have failed all season, not the first.
I can definitely see your side of it, especially when you watch them, as you say. I think I just see it as his job to get results as much as to produce performances, but yeah, if he survives and adds some quality, it could very well be one of the cases where they push on dramatically. The foundations could be laid.

However, I think relegation would still be a failure given the quality in their first team compared to other teams that are down there.
 

AgentSmith

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I can definitely see your side of it, especially when you watch them, as you say. I think I just see it as his job to get results as much as to produce performances, but yeah, if he survives and adds some quality, it could very well be one of the cases where they push on dramatically. The foundations could be laid.

However, I think relegation would still be a failure given the quality in their first team compared to other teams that are down there.
Oh no doubt, it would be a massive failure if they got relegated and the buck ultimately stops with the manager.

Would be disastrous as well given they’d undoubtedly lose a lot of that talented young core (White, Lamptey, Bissouma) to bigger clubs before they’ve had a chance to really gel as a team.

I just think as a club Brighton are such an asset to the league with the way they’re run and the football they try to play. So I’ll be praying they hold on while simultaneously using voodoo to ensure Burnley slide down the table into 18th.
 

giorno

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Like Howe, I feel Potter's biggest issue is that the style he wants to play can only be achieved by having players who are atleast 2 levels above the current BHA side.

He's a great manager, much better than Howe, and I think Potter will do well in a Southampton type side at the very least, but he needs to tweak his tactics to maximize BHA's results. Of course Ryan didn't help in the first half, and now their strikers are misfiring, but he needs to devise ugly wins if he wants to avoid relegation
How? Beyond consistently creating more and better chances than their opponents and conceding fewer, what is there to maximize?

What they do works. Misfiring strikers are the reason it doesn't get them results. That is not an issue of playing style or tactics
 

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Andone is apparently back in training after a long injury. I've always considered him to be a bit shit but after our recent woes, get him straight back in the starting XI :lol:
 

anant

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How? Beyond consistently creating more and better chances than their opponents and conceding fewer, what is there to maximize?

What they do works. Misfiring strikers are the reason it doesn't get them results. That is not an issue of playing style or tactics
I'm not sure honestly. Maybe, if Maupay is better in the air, then go for more crosses, or something like that. But honestly, I've seen them enough outside the bigger games to comment on what they should do.
 

FootballHQ

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How? Beyond consistently creating more and better chances than their opponents and conceding fewer, what is there to maximize?

What they do works. Misfiring strikers are the reason it doesn't get them results. That is not an issue of playing style or tactics
More clean sheets?

They kept the grand total of 3 up to middle of January. Then kept 4 out of 5 games from that point which seemed to correct things (yes taking Ryan out seems to have improved things :lol:) but I thought the goal they conceded v West Brom was really poor at the weekend.

They spent 20 odd million on a CB not so long ago and likes of Lamptey, White and Dunk are all massively rated and seen as ability to play for top 8 teams so not like they don't have the resources to improve things compared to say West Brom who generally have an awful set of defenders yet they're becoming very difficult to score against now as are Fulham who've shown massive improvement in last few months at the back.

In their first season up in 17/18 they kept for instance 10 so interesting if they can beat that.
 

giorno

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They kept 8 clean sheets. Which is squarely middle of the pack in the PL

I'm really not sure what people expect them to be. They don't have better players than the likes of newcastle or crystal palace. Not even sure they have better players than burnley for that matter. At least Burnley has decent strikers
 

Patchbeard

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They kept 8 clean sheets. Which is squarely middle of the pack in the PL

I'm really not sure what people expect them to be. They don't have better players than the likes of newcastle or crystal palace. Not even sure they have better players than burnley for that matter. At least Burnley has decent strikers
To be fair to Maupay, his overall PL record so far is decent and comparable/better than Wood/Barnes/Rodriguez, although he has been on a bad run lately. Think it's that they don't have anyone beyond him right now, Welbeck and Connolly are dross in front of goal and Trossard has been disappointing. Bring back Glenn Murray.
 

Cheimoon

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More clean sheets?

They kept the grand total of 3 up to middle of January. Then kept 4 out of 5 games from that point which seemed to correct things (yes taking Ryan out seems to have improved things :lol:) but I thought the goal they conceded v West Brom was really poor at the weekend.

They spent 20 odd million on a CB not so long ago and likes of Lamptey, White and Dunk are all massively rated and seen as ability to play for top 8 teams so not like they don't have the resources to improve things compared to say West Brom who generally have an awful set of defenders yet they're becoming very difficult to score against now as are Fulham who've shown massive improvement in last few months at the back.

In their first season up in 17/18 they kept for instance 10 so interesting if they can beat that.
The thing is though: if they make a defensive change to have more clean sheets, they'll lose something on the attacking side. Currently, they're creating enough good chances but just aren't scoring them, so they can't really afford creating fewer chances - except if 0-0s would be their goal, but that's not going to keep them up.

It's really a Catch 22 - or more simply, a case of needing someone who is just a little more natural at goal-scoring.
 

FootballHQ

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The thing is though: if they make a defensive change to have more clean sheets, they'll lose something on the attacking side. Currently, they're creating enough good chances but just aren't scoring them, so they can't really afford creating fewer chances - except if 0-0s would be their goal, but that's not going to keep them up.

It's really a Catch 22 - or more simply, a case of needing someone who is just a little more natural at goal-scoring.
I agree but I genuinely thought they'd cracked things a few weeks back, deservedly beating all of Liverpool, Spurs and Leeds 1-0 and completely battering us but as ever Emi Martinez made a couple of world class saves and we got away with the 0-0.

That was the template but they've slipped from that in recent times.

I made the point last week I'm not sure Potter would be happy with a Glenn Murray type upfront who can knock in 10-15 no problem as he was doing in the Hughton team but wouldn't stretch play much.

I think they'll stay up anway as West Brom are too far back and surely with all their decent forwards injured Newcastle will struggle to win a game for next 6 weeks. It shouldn't be this tight for Brighton though when you look at the comfortable season their rivals Palace are having despite playing pretty poorly on the whole since xmas and we can't say they have great or clinical forwards either.