Top 4 race / race abandoned (or maybe not) / Leicester & Chelsea in the process of bottling it

Borys

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Weakened team vs Leicester and all out vs Liverpool.
It's the most reasonable option. 4 days rest between Villa and Liverpool for Shaw, Bruno, Pogba, Fred, Wan Bissaka and Cavani.

We might still get something out of Leicester game, they look poor recently.
 

GoonerBear

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Leicester have screwed it up, they had to win the easy games as you can't see them picking up barely a point from all the big sides they have left in the run in.
Thing is, because of the ridiculous nature of this season, you wouldn't put it past Leicester after drawing with 10 man Southampton & getting beat from Newcastle to go out & beat a Chelsea or a Utd. The results this season have been mental!

The only real guarantee this season is that Arsenal will be shit at home, although this has nothing to do with the top 4 race it gives me another opportunity to laugh at my club.
 

Dancfc

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The last part is crucial. People seem to forget very quickly how porous your defense was under Lampard. Tuchel has definitely improved your defense. It is very clear from the way you get back your shape the moment you lose the ball. A well-drilled unit.
Even under Lampard our defense improved a lot with Silva and Mendy. They both made a massive difference. The pairs individual brilliance isn't as obvious now we are more well structured but they have both been brilliant.

The big difference under Tuchel is we remain solid with any combination whereas with Lampard those two had to play especially Mendy (case in point to that the chaotic 3 all draw against Southampton with out either of them sandwiched in between a solid run of clean sheets with them).
 

BorisManUtd

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It's the most reasonable option. 4 days rest between Villa and Liverpool for Shaw, Bruno, Pogba, Fred, Wan Bissaka and Cavani.

We might still get something out of Leicester game, they look poor recently.
I don't trust our squad options at all, especially after that game in Rome :lol: Leicester have been poor recently but if we don't play our best 11 then I can see them beating us comfortably.
 

Judas

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Chelsea 3rd, Liverpool 4th. I don't see how Liverpool can do it, but then I don't see how Leicester or West Ham can keep their nerve? Absolute mess.

Why is it never really a race for these final CL places, more teams stumbling over the line?
 

justsomebloke

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Agreed, though I do think Chelsea will drop points v City this weekend, and if that happens then it would be a straight shootout between them and Leicester in their head to head
Here's one way to look at it.

First column is to what extent each team has this in their own hands (max attainable points).

Second column is "blind" projected points, ie, just assuming each team will lose to opponents in a higher quality bracket, draw teams in a similar quality bracket and beat teams in a lower quality bracket. Obviously that's not a prediction, but it's a measure of where you end up if the team neither overperforms or underperforms, hence says something about the difficulty of the task ahead.

Chelsea.......... 73.......69 (Dropped points: 2 vs City, 2 vs Leicester)
Leicester.........72.......68 (Dropped points: 2 vs United, 2 vs Chelsea)
West Ham.......70.......68 (Dropped points: 2 vs Everton)
Liverpool..........69......66 (Dropped points: 3 vs United)
Tottenham.......65......62 (Dropped points: 3 vs Leicester)
Everton.............67......62 (Dropped points: 2 vs West Ham, 3 vs City)


Following Spurs-Leeds, it's right now pretty much between 3 teams for 2 spots. But if Liverpool beat us on Thursday, they're joining the party (provided they win against Southampton today. If they don't, it's about making the Europa League for them).
 
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theklr

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Here's one way to look at it.

First column is to what extent each team has this in their own hands (max attainable points).

Second column is "blind" projected points, ie, just assuming each team will lose to opponents in a higher quality bracket, draw teams in a similar quality bracket and beat teams in a lower quality bracket. Obviously that's not a prediction, but it's a measure of where you end up if the team neither overperforms or underperforms, hence says something about the difficulty of the task ahead.

Chelsea.......... 73.......69 (Dropped points: 2 vs City, 2 vs Leicester)
Leicester.........72.......68 (Dropped points: 2 vs United, 2 vs Chelsea)
West Ham.......70.......68 (Dropped points: 2 vs Everton)
Liverpool..........69......66 (Dropped points: 3 vs United)
Tottenham.......65......62 (Dropped points: 3 vs Leicester)
Everton.............67......62 (Dropped points: 2 vs West Ham, 3 vs City)


Following Spurs-Leeds, it's right now pretty much between 3 teams for 2 spots. But if Liverpool beat us on Thursday, they're joining the party (provided they win against Southampton today. If they don't, it's about making the Europa League for them).
So if Chelsea wins all their remaining games we’ll need two wins to secure 2.unless we lose by 7-8 goals or something?
 

theklr

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Seems both City and Chelsea are putting out a half B side now, so might be interesting.
 

sewey89

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That’s pretty much Chelsea nailed on now. Shootout between Liverpool, Leicester and West Ham for the last spot
 

Andycoleno9

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West Ham, Leicester and Liverpool for one spot. And West Ham have excellent schedule. Only Everton play for something, others for nothing.
Chosen one vs Bottler vs best manager in history of sports.
 

dwd

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Leicester win last night would’ve sealed it pretty much. Idiots. Our game vs them will have a huge say in what happens.
 

city-puma

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We can only field a weakened team against Leicester. So, Leicester will finish in the top four.
 

theklr

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We can only field a weakened team against Leicester. So, Leicester will finish in the top four.
At this point I wouldnt rule out our B side getting a draw against them, even though it would be unlikely
 

BorisManUtd

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Well now I can see Chelsea winning all of their remaining games, which would put them on 73 points in the end. Someone said we need 7 more points to secure second place and was right. So 7 of 15 available points still needed. If it wasn't for our tight schedule I'd be confident of us achieving that, will be more difficult now.
 

njred

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I'm predicting a 'bad day at the office' for the United players when we face Leicester next week.
Bad day meaning a good day for united supporters. A draw would be fine. Then a Chelsea/ Leicester draw or a Spurs/Leicester draw.
 

Dave Smith

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The only thing to do now is go:

Villa : full strength
Leicester : second string
Dippers : full strength

No chance of Utd winning the league as City only need two/three points which they will get out of either Newcastle/Brighton. West Ham aren't getting 4th so Ole needs to do the right thing.
 

BorisManUtd

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Although I'd rather see Leicester finishing in top 4 than Liverpool, I also want us to secure second place and win as much points as possible so a win against would be very good. The reason I don't see it happening is the fact that Leicester game is between Villa and Liverpool games so most logical thing to do is to rest some players against Leicester.

West Ham still have their chance as well, it's basically about can they win their next two against Everton and Brighton as most difficult, their last 2 games are West Brom (A) and Southampton (H) and you'd really expect them to win both of those games comfortably.
 

Dave Smith

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Although I'd rather see Leicester finishing in top 4 than Liverpool, I also want us to secure second place and win as much points as possible so a win against would be very good. The reason I don't see it happening is the fact that Leicester game is between Villa and Liverpool games so most logical thing to do is to rest some players against Leicester.

West Ham still have their chance as well, it's basically about can they win their next two against Everton and Brighton as most difficult, their last 2 games are West Brom (A) and Southampton (H) and you'd really expect them to win both of those games comfortably.
If Utd beat Villa it would require an absolute melt down for Chelsea to pip 2nd as after that game it would be six points + 7+ GD with four games to go.
 

rotherham_red

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Well now I can see Chelsea winning all of their remaining games, which would put them on 73 points in the end. Someone said we need 7 more points to secure second place and was right. So 7 of 15 available points still needed. If it wasn't for our tight schedule I'd be confident of us achieving that, will be more difficult now.
Really? We need two wins and a draw from our last 5 games (we might not even need the draw considering our GD advantage).

I think we'll win tomorrow, we'll get a draw v Leicester with the B team and we'll get at least a draw v Liverpool who do not look much good at all. We then play a pretty much doomed Fulham and a Wolves who have nothing to play for on the final day, and who have almost no cutting edge without Jimenez.

If in the worst case scenario we get nothing from the games this week, the last two are easy fixtures where we can easily solidify ourselves in 2nd.
 

BorisManUtd

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If Utd beat Villa it would require an absolute melt down for Chelsea to pip 2nd as after that game it would be six points + 7+ GD with four games to go.
I still can see Chelsea beating both Arsenal and Leicester, and Villa as well (despite Grealish being back by then could give Villa a chance to get something). Win tomorrow would be significant for us, it'd be impossible for West Ham and Liverpool to catch us, almost impossible for Leicester, very difficult for Chelsea but still somewhat possible. What I would like to see is us securing 2nd place finish before Fulham and Wolves so we can fully focus on Villarreal and rest some in those last 2 games in the league.

@rotherham_red I'm confident as you that we'll finish second but want us to pick up as many points as possible, despite it being irrelevant position wise. We finished last season with 66 points and a goal for many of us for this was 75-80 points, it still is imo. It shows progression, don't think I'd be happy if we finish it with 70-73 points, as much as it doesn't matter probably, it would irritate me tbh :lol:
 
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justsomebloke

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For my part I'm keen for us to get as many points as possible and finish the season strong, whether 2nd is already secured or not. We're still a work in progress.
 

Dave Smith

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Leicester have blown it and handed it to Liverpool.
It is why a roll over is required on Tuesday. 2nd is pretty much in the bag if the Villa game brings in 3pts and after that the only game that matters is the Ropey League final.
 

Bertie Wooster

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I still can see Chelsea beating both Arsenal and Leicester, and Villa as well (despite Grealish being back by then could give Villa a chance to get something). Win tomorrow would be significant for us, it'd be impossible for West Ham and Liverpool to catch us, almost impossible for Leicester, very difficult for Chelsea but still somewhat possible. What I would like to see is us securing 2nd place finish before Fulham and Wolves so we can fully focus on Villarreal and rest some in those last 2 games in the league.
Yep. This is the point I was making in the Gameweek 35/36 thread and got about half a dozen dismissive responses but it seems a perfectly valid point to make and I agree with it.

I'm not particularly all that fussed about 2nd myself - it'd be nice to do it to show progression, as we deserve 2nd this season - but it's not as important to me as a top 4 finish and winning the Europa League.

However I suspect Ole really wants 2nd place, to continue the progression from last seasons 3rd, and so I want us to pick up the points early (and wanted Chelsea to lose or draw today) so that we could have it sown up before those final 2 games and don't have to risk Fernandes, Rashford, Shaw, etc, any more than necessary.
 

city-puma

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The only thing to do now is go:

Villa : full strength
Leicester : second string
Dippers : full strength

No chance of Utd winning the league as City only need two/three points which they will get out of either Newcastle/Brighton. West Ham aren't getting 4th so Ole needs to do the right thing.
Yeah! This is the only plan feasible.